顾蔚
上
海自由贸易区将于周日正式挂牌成立，哪些商品或者服务属于自由交易的范畴尚无定论。投资者已经推高了当地房地产公司的股价，而学者们则做出了从货币自由兑换到解禁Facebook的各种预期。关于房地产，投资者的思路未免过于狭窄；关于资本开放和媒体开放，学者们似乎有欠思考。
相关报道
德勤(Deloitte)驻上海的税务及企业服务执行合伙人蒋颍称，政府想要试探，想看看企业能够提出哪些新想法。
要正确看待上海自由贸易区，就要考虑到政府眼下的需要和目标。中国股市诞生于深圳──中国的首个经济特区。而今日的上海已经拥有400多家跨国公司地区总部以及全球几乎所有大型银行的办事机构，在上海进行下一轮经济试验具备一定条件。
首先，之所以说投资者的思路有过于狭窄之嫌，是因为据看过自贸区规划草案的人士透露，在上海自由贸易区注册的企业未必需要在那里经营才能享受各项优惠政策。这意味着，如果有更多跨国公司在上海设立总部或扩大现有业务规模，那么上海全市的商业地产所有者以及金融服务机构都有可能获得更多商机。
Reuters
上海自贸区将于周日正式挂牌成立。
其它变革可能会与中国领导层已明确宣布的改革目标有关，其中包括增加消费支出和改善医疗服务。
海外旅行社可能会被允许参与中国繁荣的出境游市场。中国出境游研究所预计，在今年7月份至明年6月份，将有超过一亿人次的中国游客出国旅游。目前在这一市场占据主导地位的企业，比如携程和中国旅行社，将面临来自Expedia等外国公司更加激烈的竞争。
私人医院和养老院也是外国投资者感兴趣的领域。目前这个行业只允许外资通过合资公司的形式进入。引入更多海外投资者应当也有助于减轻人满为患的中国医院的负担。
知情人士称，自贸区将允许任天堂、索尼和微软等游戏机制造商和游戏开发商直接在中国从事生产和销售活动。但考虑到中国盗版猖獗，而且国内游戏公司已经拥有很强实力，所以外资进入中国市场并非易事。
艺术品经销商也看到了希望。佳士得周四刚刚在上海举行了其在中国的首场拍卖。印度华裔农业富豪余德耀表示，如果要把收藏的海外艺术品拿到他在上海的私人博物馆展览，需要支付高昂的税费。而随着自贸区的成立，这种情况可能出现改观，因为中国政府正大力鼓励艺术品行业的发展。
媒体等政治敏感性行业可能是最后一个放开的领域。据《人民日报》报道，自贸区内Facebook和推特(Twitter)的访问仍将受限。考虑到中国银行业既得利益者势力强大以及潜在的金融风险，金融业开放可能将逐步进行。
金融行业内可能受益的一个领域是信用调研公司。政府将放松对业务注册的限制，这意味着企业需要信用调研服务来帮助它们发现对手方风险。英国高伟绅律师事务所认为，外资信用调研公司会被获准进入自贸区。
习惯了跟着中国政府指挥棒转的中外企业一直在问律师：在没有看到全部细节之前，如何知道自身行为是否合规？即使政府在未来几个月内公布自贸区更详细的规定，也很可能只是泛泛而谈给个大方向，而不会就允许和禁止的行为给出具体准则。当然，这也是试点的全部意义所在，就是让市场机制在中国经济中发挥更大作用。
但投资者也不一定完全没有头绪。对企业和投资者而言，明智之举是思考顺应中国发展目标（进一步推进经济平衡）的创新业务，这样才最有可能从之前受限行业的开放中获益。
（本文作者顾蔚是《华尔街日报》中国财富和奢侈品编辑，并负责该报中文网的原创内容。欢迎追踪她的中文网博客"高净值生活"，和每周五以中英文双语同步发表的专栏。评论请发送邮件至wei.gu@wsj.com，也可以在新浪微博上(顾蔚WeiGu)追踪她。）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
Shanghai's free-trade zone is set to launch Sunday despite almost no clarity about what exactly will be freely tradable. Investors have bid up the shares of real-estate companies in the zone and pundits have made predictions ranging from currency convertibility to access to Facebook FB +1.88% .
In the first case, investors are thinking too narrowly; in the second, the pundits aren't thinking much at all.
The Chinese government historically hasn't made big, bold changes all at once, but has taken incremental approaches to new and risky ventures. The step-by-step internationalization of the yuan is a good example.
'The government is testing the water, to see what new ideas the businesses can come up with,' said Vivian Jiang, a managing partner in tax and business services for Deloitte in Shanghai.
The way to view the free-trade zone is to think about the government's immediate needs and goals. The stock market started in Shenzhen, China's first special zone. Shanghai, with more than 400 regional headquarters for multinationals and offices for nearly all major global banks, is ripe for the next round of economic experiments.
First, investors are thinking too narrowly because companies that register in the zone don't necessarily need to operate from it to enjoy the benefits, according to people who have seen draft rules for the zone. That means commercial-property landlords and financial-services firms in the whole city may see increased demand if more multinationals are going to establish their headquarters in Shanghai or expand existing operations.
Second, some are predicting major changes when even the small ones that are more likely to occur will have big impacts. One of the biggest could be an easing of restrictions on capital movements and currency exchanges for multinationals, as well as legal and tax considerations. If the new zone allows foreign companies to move money more easily, it could benefit them just by reducing costs and adding flexibility. This could be the extent of the financial liberalization.
Other changes will likely fit with the economic reform goals already made clear by China's leadership, including increased consumer spending and improved health care.
Foreign travel agencies could be allowed to participate in the boom of Chinese outbound travel. More than 100 million Chinese are expected to travel abroad from July this year through next June, according to China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. Domestic companies that currently dominate this market, such as Ctrip and China Travel Agency, could see more competition from the likes of Expedia.
Private hospitals and retirement homes are another area of interest for foreign investors. Currently, they are only allowed access to the market through joint ventures. Having more foreign players should also help ease the burden of China's overcrowded hospitals.
The free-trade zone will allow game producers and gaming console makers such as Nintendo, 7974.TO -0.35% Sony 6758.TO +0.62% and Microsoft MSFT +0.82% to manufacture and sell directly in China, according to people familiar with the situation. But this isn't an easy market for foreign players because piracy in China is rampant and domestic online gaming companies are already very strong.
Art sellers are also hopeful. Christie's just had its first China auction in Shanghai on Thursday. Indonesian Chinese farming tycoon Budi Tek said he would have to pay hefty taxes to bring in his art collection to decorate his private museum in Shanghai. This may change with the free-trade zone, because art is also an area that the government is keen to promote.
Politically sensitive sectors, such as media, are likely to be among the last areas to open up. Facebook and Twitter will continue to be behind firewalls in the trade zone, according to the People's Daily newspaper.
Given the potential risks and pushback from China's massively profitable banks, financial liberalization is likely to be gradual.
One area in finance likely to benefit is credit research. The government will be less hands-on about business registrations, which means businesses need credit-research services to help them figure out the counterparty risks. Foreign credit firms are going to be allowed in the new trade zone, according to British law firm Clifford Chance.
Companies used to the government's heavy-handed approach in China keep asking their lawyers, 'How do I make sure I am in compliance without seeing the full details?' Even when the government releases full details of the free-trade zone in the next few months, they are likely to be broad strokes rather than detailed regulations about what can and can't be done. That's the whole point of the experiment anyway: to let the market play a bigger role in the Chinese economy.
But it doesn't have to be all guesswork. For companies and investors, the smart thing to do is to think about innovative businesses that fit with China's development goals, namely the shift to a more balanced economy. Those are the ones that are most likely to benefit from some opening-up of formerly restricted sectors.
In the first case, investors are thinking too narrowly; in the second, the pundits aren't thinking much at all.
The Chinese government historically hasn't made big, bold changes all at once, but has taken incremental approaches to new and risky ventures. The step-by-step internationalization of the yuan is a good example.
'The government is testing the water, to see what new ideas the businesses can come up with,' said Vivian Jiang, a managing partner in tax and business services for Deloitte in Shanghai.
The way to view the free-trade zone is to think about the government's immediate needs and goals. The stock market started in Shenzhen, China's first special zone. Shanghai, with more than 400 regional headquarters for multinationals and offices for nearly all major global banks, is ripe for the next round of economic experiments.
First, investors are thinking too narrowly because companies that register in the zone don't necessarily need to operate from it to enjoy the benefits, according to people who have seen draft rules for the zone. That means commercial-property landlords and financial-services firms in the whole city may see increased demand if more multinationals are going to establish their headquarters in Shanghai or expand existing operations.
Second, some are predicting major changes when even the small ones that are more likely to occur will have big impacts. One of the biggest could be an easing of restrictions on capital movements and currency exchanges for multinationals, as well as legal and tax considerations. If the new zone allows foreign companies to move money more easily, it could benefit them just by reducing costs and adding flexibility. This could be the extent of the financial liberalization.
Other changes will likely fit with the economic reform goals already made clear by China's leadership, including increased consumer spending and improved health care.
Foreign travel agencies could be allowed to participate in the boom of Chinese outbound travel. More than 100 million Chinese are expected to travel abroad from July this year through next June, according to China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. Domestic companies that currently dominate this market, such as Ctrip and China Travel Agency, could see more competition from the likes of Expedia.
Private hospitals and retirement homes are another area of interest for foreign investors. Currently, they are only allowed access to the market through joint ventures. Having more foreign players should also help ease the burden of China's overcrowded hospitals.
The free-trade zone will allow game producers and gaming console makers such as Nintendo, 7974.TO -0.35% Sony 6758.TO +0.62% and Microsoft MSFT +0.82% to manufacture and sell directly in China, according to people familiar with the situation. But this isn't an easy market for foreign players because piracy in China is rampant and domestic online gaming companies are already very strong.
Art sellers are also hopeful. Christie's just had its first China auction in Shanghai on Thursday. Indonesian Chinese farming tycoon Budi Tek said he would have to pay hefty taxes to bring in his art collection to decorate his private museum in Shanghai. This may change with the free-trade zone, because art is also an area that the government is keen to promote.
Politically sensitive sectors, such as media, are likely to be among the last areas to open up. Facebook and Twitter will continue to be behind firewalls in the trade zone, according to the People's Daily newspaper.
Given the potential risks and pushback from China's massively profitable banks, financial liberalization is likely to be gradual.
One area in finance likely to benefit is credit research. The government will be less hands-on about business registrations, which means businesses need credit-research services to help them figure out the counterparty risks. Foreign credit firms are going to be allowed in the new trade zone, according to British law firm Clifford Chance.
Companies used to the government's heavy-handed approach in China keep asking their lawyers, 'How do I make sure I am in compliance without seeing the full details?' Even when the government releases full details of the free-trade zone in the next few months, they are likely to be broad strokes rather than detailed regulations about what can and can't be done. That's the whole point of the experiment anyway: to let the market play a bigger role in the Chinese economy.
But it doesn't have to be all guesswork. For companies and investors, the smart thing to do is to think about innovative businesses that fit with China's development goals, namely the shift to a more balanced economy. Those are the ones that are most likely to benefit from some opening-up of formerly restricted sectors.
