2014年5月7日

阿里巴巴提交在美上市申请 Alibaba Files IPO in the U.S.

European Pressphoto Agency
阿里巴巴提交了在美国上市的申请。

国互联网巨头阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.)正式提交在美国进行首次公开募股(IPO)的计划,在上市前证实了其庞大的电子商务业务的广度和规模。预计阿里巴巴集团的上市将可能是历史上最大规模的IPO之一。

阿里巴巴提交的IPO申请文件显示,该公司去年拥有2.31亿活跃买家。买家去年在阿里巴巴旗下三个购物网站共消费2,480亿美元,规模与芬兰的经济体量基本相当。

去年第四季度交易额较上年同比增长53%。据Forrester Research的数据显示,去年的交易额比亚马逊(Amazon.com Inc.)网站的交易额高一倍以上,亚马逊去年的交易额约为1,100亿美元。

多媒体报道:阿里巴巴全解读
周二盘后发布的IPO申请标志着阿里巴巴在美销售股票工作正式迈出第一步。阿里巴巴已聘请全球最大的六家投行负责打理上市事宜,预计基金经理和小型投资者也将仔细考察这家公司。许多西方投资者更多是通过阿里巴巴的声望而非第一手经验熟悉这家公司的。

根据文件中披露的信息,4月份时阿里巴巴对自己的估值约为1,090亿美元,这基于阿里巴巴在文件中公布的已发行股票数量以及该公司对其每股股票价值的内部估算。如果将一些股权薪酬和部分优先股转换计算在内,估值将达到1,160亿美元。不过在进行股票发售时,阿里巴巴可能寻求更高的估值。

分析师给出的估值预期在1,360亿美元至2,450亿美元不等。

阿里巴巴周一称,计划筹资10亿美元,不过外界普遍认为这只是一个暂定数字。熟悉阿里巴巴情况的人士曾表示,该公司可能在这宗交易中筹资逾200亿美元,而且预计该交易最早也要等到今夏较晚时候才会启动。

整体而言,提交的上市文件表明,阿里巴巴的营收增速超过了支出增速。

在截至去年12月份的九个月中,阿里巴巴的营收成本同比增加了33%,至人民币99亿元。营收成本包括各种运营成本和流量获得成本,以及向支付宝(Alipay)和其他金融机构支付的支付处理费用。同期,该公司的产品开发成本上升了34%,至人民币38.9亿元。

同一时期,阿里巴巴的营收大幅增长57%,超过了支出的增幅。阿里巴巴最大的一块业务是其在中国的三个交易市场,截至去年12月份的九个月中,这三个市场贡献了总计65亿美元的营收中的83%。

文件还透露了阿里巴巴云计算业务的详细情况。2013年4月-12月,云计算业务实现收入9,000万美元,只占阿里巴巴总收入的1.4%。阿里巴巴在2009年成立了子公司阿里云(Alibaba Cloud Computing),负责处理关联企业的数据需求。截至去年12月31日,阿里云每分钟可处理360万笔交易。目前阿里云为第三方企业处理网络流量。

文件显示,阿里巴巴的移动支付交易量正在增长。该公司称,去年第四季度旗下中国在线购物网站的移动在线交易量占到了交易总量的20%左右,远高于上年同期的7.4%。去年12月,阿里巴巴购物网站的月度移动活跃用户数量达到1.36亿。

管理着1,200亿美元资产的Nuveen Asset Management的高级研究分析师斯诺里克(Jane Snorek)说,到目前为止她了解到的最重要的一件事就是移动业务正在推动阿里巴巴的增长,而且这一趋势似乎正在加速,尽管阿里巴巴已经是一家非常大的公司。

斯诺里克表示,她希望看到与用户参与度有关的更多数据,比如消费者浏览阿里巴巴网站的时间,他们的购物历史等等。她说,她对所有互联网公司最看重的一点是,这些公司的用户是否在增长,用户使用它们的网站是否更加频繁。

对于阿里巴巴云计算业务,斯诺里克说,她认为其云业务的营收和用户数量对于大多数人来说将是个惊喜。她还说,他们最近才开始谈论这项业务,但看起来该业务已经运营了一段时间,已经开始产生收入。

斯诺里克说,这是一家规模如此巨大的公司,十分惊人。

阿里巴巴没有说明计划在哪个交易所上市,但预计它将选择纽约证交所。

到目前为止,对于阿里巴巴价值的估计主要是根据类似公司情况进行的猜测。在此之前,只有持有阿里巴巴24%股份的雅虎(Yahoo Inc.)在文件中披露了一些阿里巴巴的基本财务信息。

截至去年年底,这家中国公司持有79亿美元现金、现金等价物和短期投资,还有49亿美元的长期债务──这些是重要的衡量标准,因为阿里巴巴还在继续着收购狂欢,旨在让公司进入新的业务领域并巩固其面对竞争对手的实力。

此次IPO将标志着阿里巴巴在中国国内外日渐增长的雄心。阿里巴巴于1999年在华东城市杭州成立,其创始人马云(Jack Ma)曾是一位英语老师。阿里巴巴最早的业务是一个为中国供应商与外国买家牵线的网站。

时间轴:阿里巴巴崛起之路
目前,阿里巴巴的主营业务是两个消费市场:淘宝和天猫网站。这两个网站的交易额占中国网购交易总额的80%左右;调研公司iResearch称,去年中国消费者网购交易总额为人民币1.84万亿元(合2,960亿美元)。

周二的文件并没有披露两家网站各自的收入或交易额。

文件称,阿里巴巴计划通过IPO为自身筹集新资金,但金额不清楚。该公司称,计划将筹资所得用于一般公司用途,这是在股票发行中用到的标准条款。

文件反映出阿里巴巴需要筹集更多资金的可能原因。该公司指出,它已经背负了高额债务,去年从一组大型银行获得的80亿美元信贷额度已经耗尽。该公司称,今年4月份用掉了这80亿美元信贷额度中的最后30亿美元。

申请文件也揭示出阿里巴巴在公司架构上更多有争议的细节。马云是该公司的合伙人之一,而这些合伙人提名的董事占董事会人数的一半以上。这种合伙人制度是导致阿里巴巴与港交所上市谈判破裂的原因,阿里巴巴最初曾考虑在香港上市。

周二,阿里巴巴介绍了公司的28位合伙人,其中22人为阿里巴巴集团的管理人士,另外6人为关联公司的经理。 

现有的内部人也有其他方法维持对公司的控制。软银(SoftBank Corp.)作为一个实力强大的股东,只要它持有阿里巴巴15%的股权,就有权推荐一名董事。申请文件称,雅虎和软银总共持有公开上市前阿里巴巴57%的股权,这两个股东已进一步同意投票支持合伙人提名。但雅虎的持股比例料将下降,因为按照先前的一份协议,雅虎将在IPO过程中出售手中约40%的持股。 

阿里巴巴在申请文件中称,软银是阿里巴巴最大的股东,IPO后,它仍将持有该公司超过30%的股权。

招股书显示,阿里巴巴目前的董事会成员包括马云、执行副主席蔡崇信(Joe Tsai)、软银首席执行长孙正义(Masayoshi Son)以及雅虎(Yahoo)首席开发长杰奎琳·雷瑟斯(Jacqueline Reses)。


招股书证实了目前为止承接阿里巴巴IPO工作的投行名单,它们是瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group AG)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank AG)、高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)、摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。熟悉阿里巴巴想法的知情人士称,这几家银行在招股书中按字母顺序排列,说明阿里巴巴希望给予它们公平的地位,花旗(Citi)将在IPO交易中扮演相对次要的角色。

据知情人士透露,阿里巴巴的IPO规模有望达到200亿美元,支付给投行的承销费可能达到4亿美元,为了能分一杯羹,投行展开了激烈的竞争;这笔费用将包括相当于IPO融资规模1%的基础佣金,作为激励机制,超出IPO计划融资规模的部分将给予投行至多1%的佣金奖励。

为了取悦阿里巴巴,上述银行的高管近年来定期赴杭州、香港和东京与阿里巴巴高管会面。据知情人士透露,摩根大通首席执行长詹姆斯·戴蒙(James Dimon)和该行资深的交易撮合者小詹姆斯 ·李(James B. Lee Jr.)就曾在香港与马云共进晚餐。

Juro Osawa / Telis Demos 

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Chinese Internet giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. officially filed plans to offer its shares in the U.S., confirming the breadth and scale of its vast e-commerce operations ahead of what is expected to be one of the largest stock listings in history. 

The filing showed the company had 231 million annual active buyers last year. A total of $248 billion was spent on Alibaba's three shopping sites last year, roughly the same as the economy of Finland. 

That transaction volume, which in the fourth quarter was up 53% from the prior year, was more than twice as much as was spent on Amazon.com Inc., which had roughly $110 billion in transactions, according to Forrester Research. 

The filing, released after the market closed, marks the first step toward a whirlwind sale season in which Wall Street will pitch the stock offering. Alibaba has lined up half dozen of the world's biggest banks to help place its shares, and money managers and small investors are expected to size up the company, which is familiar to many in the Western world more by reputation than firsthand experience. 

Alibaba valued itself at roughly $109 billion in April, based on disclosures in the document about the numbers of shares outstanding and its internal estimate of the value of each share. Including some stock-based compensation and the conversion of certain preferred shares, the valuation is $116 billion. However, the company could seek a higher valuation when it sells shares. 

Analyst estimates have ranged from $136 billion to $245 billion. 

Alibaba said Monday that it plans to raise $1 billion, although that figure is widely seen as a placeholder. People familiar with the company have said it could raise more than $20 billion in the deal, not expected until at least later in summer. 

Overall, the filing shows Alibaba's revenue growth is outpacing its growth in expenses. 

Alibaba's cost of revenue, which includes various operational expenses and traffic acquisition costs as well as payment processing fees it pays to Alipay and other financial institutions, increased 33% to 9.9 billion yuan ($1.59 billion) in the nine months through December from a year earlier. The company's product development costs rose 34% to 3.89 billion yuan in the same period. 

For those nine months, Alibaba's revenue jumped 57%, more than making up for the increase in expenses. Alibaba's largest business segment was its three Chinese retail markets, contributing 83% of its $6.5 billion in revenue in the nine months ended in December. 

The filing also revealed details about Alibaba's cloud-computing business. In the last nine months of 2013, just 1.4% of Alibaba's revenue, or $90 million came from its cloud computing business. The company founded Alibaba Cloud Computing in 2009 to manage the data needs of its related companies. It could process 3.6 million transactions a minute as of Dec. 31. It now handles web traffic for third-party companies.

The filing showed that Alibaba's mobile transactions are growing. Mobile transactions accounted for about 20% of all the transactions on its Chinese shopping sites in the fourth quarter of last year, up sharply from 7.4% a year earlier, the company said. In December, Alibaba's shopping sites had 136 million monthly active users on mobile, the company said. 

'The biggest thing I've learned so far is how much mobile is driving their growth, and it seems to be reaccelerating, even though they're already a big company,' said Jane Snorek, senior research analyst at Nuveen Asset Management, which oversees $120 billion. 

Ms. Snorek said she is looking for more data on user engagement, such as how much time customers are spending on Alibaba's sites and the history of their purchasing activity. 'My big thing on any Internet company is, you're growing your users and they're using your site more often,' she said. 

Speaking of Alibaba's cloud computing business, Ms. Snorek said: 'The size of their cloud in revenue and users, I think will be an upside surprise to most people.' She added: 'They've only just recently been talking about that but it looks like they've been running that for a while and are already breaking out their revenues.' 

'It's such a huge company, it's just amazing,' Ms. Snorek said. 

The company didn't say on which stock exchange it plans to list, though it is expected to choose the New York Stock Exchange. 

Until now, estimates of Alibaba's value have been mostly guesswork based on comparable companies. Alibaba had only disclosed some bare-bones financial information via filings of Yahoo Inc., the holder of a 24% stake. 

The Chinese company had $7.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short term investments, and $4.9 billion in total long-term debt as of the end of last year--important metrics as Alibaba continues an acquisition spree aimed at taking the company into new business areas and bolstering its hand against rivals. 

The IPO will mark the growing ambitions in China and abroad of Alibaba, which was founded in 1999 in the eastern city of Hangzhou, by a former English teacher named Jack Ma. Alibaba's first business was a site to connect Chinese suppliers with Western buyers. 

Today, Alibaba's main business are its two consumer marketplaces, Taobao and Tmall. The two sites together account for roughly 80% of all Chinese online shopping transactions, which stood at 1.84 trillion yuan ($296 billion) last year according to research firm iResearch. 

Tuesday's filing didn't break out revenue or transaction volume for the two marketplaces. 

The filing said Alibaba intends to raise fresh funds for itself in the IPO, though the amount isn't clear. The company said it plans to use the proceeds of its offering for general corporate purposes, a standard clause used in stock offerings. 

The filing showed why it might need to raise more funds for itself. Alibaba noted it has 'incurred substantial indebtedness,' revealing it had drawn down all of the $8 billion credit facility it took out with a group of large banks last year. The company said it drew down $3 billion from that credit line in April. 

The filing also revealed more details about Alibaba's controversial corporate structure. Mr. Ma is part of an Alibaba partnership that nominates more than half the company's board directors. An objection to this practice was what torpedoed negotiations between Alibaba and the Hong Kong stock exchange, where the company initially considered listing. 

On Tuesday, Alibaba described the Alibaba partnership as 28 members, of whom 22 are members of Alibaba Group's management and six are managers at related companies. 

Current insiders also have additional ways of maintaining control of the company. SoftBank Corp., a part owner, has the right to nominate one director, so as long as it is a 15% shareholder in the company. The filing said that Yahoo and Softbank, which together own 57% of the pre-offering shares, have further agreed to vote in favor of the partnership nominees. Yahoo's stake, however, is expected to drop as Yahoo sells about 40% of its holding in the IPO, under a prior agreement. 

SoftBank, Alibaba's largest shareholder, will continue to own more than 30% of the Chinese company's shares after the IPO, Alibaba said in the filing. 

According to the IPO prospectus, Alibaba's current board directors are Mr. Ma, Executive Vice Chairman Joe Tsai, SoftBank Chief Executive Masayoshi Son, and Yahoo Chief Development Officer Jacqueline Reses. 

Alibaba's listing confirmed its lineup of banks it has tapped so far to run its deal: Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. The five leads are listed alphabetically to reflect Alibaba's desire to give them equal status, people familiar with the company's thinking said, while Citi has somewhat of a lesser role. 

The banks have competed hard for the right to share in a fee pool that could approach $400 million in a $20 billion offering, according to people familiar with the deal. The fee will include a base of 1% of the proceeds, plus up to 1% more of the proceeds as an incentive component, the people said. 

Executives at the highest levels of the banks have flown to Hangzhou, Hong Kong and Tokyo regularly in recent years to court the company. For example, J.P. Morgan Chief Executive James Dimon and one of the bank's senior deal makers, James B. Lee Jr., had dinner with Mr. Ma in Hong Kong, people familiar with the matter said. 

Juro Osawa / Telis Demos 

巴菲特的投资经理青出于蓝 Upstart Managers School Sage of Omaha

沃伦·巴菲特领导的伯克希尔-哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.A -1.28% ),管理者青出于蓝而胜于蓝。

作为其接班人计划的一部分,这位83岁的亿万富翁近年聘请了两位投资经理。据知情人士称,去年这两名经理人为公司赢得的收益不仅超过了标准普尔500指数的表现,也超过了巴菲特作为伯克希尔最高选股人的表现。

Bloomberg News
在连续两年获得强劲的投资回报后,库姆斯管理着伯克希尔-哈撒韦逾70亿美元的资产。
2013年是这两位投资经理连续第二年超越大盘,以及他们的老板,大盘去年(包含股息)上涨32%。人们还无法知道这两位投资经理去年的表现比大盘好多少,但据巴菲特在2012年的致股东信中称,他们前年获得的收益较标准普尔指数高出两位数。

这两位更年轻的投资经理的卓越表现再次证明,正如巴菲特在他最近的信中所说,巴菲特聘请他们是中了大奖。巴菲特打算在自己退休后让托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)和特德·韦施勒(Ted Weschler)最终管理他所有的投资,不过他目前还没有计划退休。

与此同时,自1965年巴菲特接管伯克希尔以来,他第一次未能完成自己设定的业绩目标。

Matt Eich/LUCEO for The Wall Street Journal
韦施勒是伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司两位潜在的巴菲特继承人之一。
过去五年巴菲特一直表示,他打算让伯克希尔净值增加的速度快于标准普尔500指数。据分析师及《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)计算,由于该指数在去年强劲上涨,巴菲特未能实现上述目标。

巴菲特向股东发出预警称,他预计无法实现上述目标,不过股东不太可能利用这一点来反对巴菲特。伯克希尔股价去年上涨了大约30%,目前交易价格较帐面价值存在溢价(这是一种衡量公司 值的方式)。

投资者对巴菲特的这两位投资经理相对陌生。库姆斯今年42岁,2011年开始在伯克希尔工作,此前管理着一只规模为4亿美元的康涅狄格州对冲基金。他已经连续三年打败了标准普尔500指数。

现年52岁的韦施勒曾管理弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔一家规模20亿美元的公司,于2012年加入伯克希尔,他曾在慈善拍卖中出价超过500万美元拍下与巴菲特共进午餐的机会。

巴菲特在接受电话采访时称,这两名经理人现在除了选股之外还从事很多工作。他说,他们在很大程度上帮助了伯克希尔,这不仅仅局限于直接的投资管理,未来几十年拥有他们都是一笔巨大的财富。巴菲特将库姆斯和韦施勒与他的财务助手特雷西·布里特·库尔(Tracy Britt Cool)并称为"三特"。

Getty Images
巴菲特聘请库姆斯和韦施勒,是为了在他退休之后让他们最终管理伯克希尔所有的投资。
身为伯克希尔首席执行长兼董事长的巴菲特还给他们提供了更多的资金供其操作。据知情人士说,库姆斯和韦施勒在2014年伊始每人打理的资金逾70亿美元,2012年初两人每人管理的资金约为30亿美元。

未来几年,两人预计都将在监管包括并购事宜在内的公司事务方面发挥更大作用。

库姆斯和韦施勒两人单独选择的投资规模约140亿美元,在伯克希尔超过1,000亿美元的庞大美国投资组合中只占一小部分。但两人管理的资产规模迅速增加,显示出巴菲特越来越信任他们发现成功者的能力。

他们参与伯克希尔投资以外的商业交易这点很重要,因为伯克希尔的股票投资组合只是这家企业集团整体价值的一部分。伯克希尔是一个庞大的实体,旗下还有保险业务、制造和零售企业以及美国最大的铁路公司之一。

这两位经理买入的头寸大多在10亿美元之内,相比之下,伯克希尔对可口可乐(Coca-Cola Inc. KO -0.46% )、美国运通(American Express Co. AXP +0.49% )、富国(Wells Fargo & Co. WFC -0.04% )和国际商业机器(International Business Machines Corp. IBM -0.09% )这四只股票每只的持仓规模都高达数十亿美元。它们是伯克希尔持仓规模最大的四只股票,多年前由巴菲特选中,截至去年第三季度末,伯克希尔手中这四只股票的总量约值580亿美元,占伯克希尔投资组合的一半以上。

去年是16年来美股表现最强劲的年头,库姆斯和韦施勒挑选的很多股票都大大超过了标普500指数(S&P 500)的表现。

巴菲特曾说,伯克希尔投资组合中的43只股票中,小规模头寸大多数都是由库姆斯或韦施勒投资的,大型头寸则是巴菲特本人的手笔。

比尔·斯密德(Bill Smead)说,这两位先生获准以沃伦的方式进行选股……并管理集中的股票投资组合。他的Smead Capital Management拥有197,005股伯克希尔B股股票。

斯密德说,DirectTV和透析治疗公司DaVita Healthcare Partners Inc.代表着那种巴菲特所说的那种"收费桥"公司,即这样的企业就基本的产品或服务收取消费者必须支付的费用。库姆斯和韦施勒投资了DaVita。

Anupreeta Das

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


The pupils are beating the master at Warren Buffett-led Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 

Two investment managers, hired by the 83-year-old billionaire in recent years as part of his succession plan, each posted returns last year that outdid both Mr. Buffett's performance as Berkshire's top stock picker and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, according to people familiar with the matter. 

The 2013 returns mark the second year in a row that the two men beat the broader market gauge, which gained 32% including dividends last year, as well as their boss. The people wouldn't say by how much the two outperformed the market in 2013, but the year before, they each beat the S&P by a double-digit margin, Mr. Buffett said in his 2012 annual letter to shareholders. 

The younger managers' strong performance is further proof that Mr. Buffett 'hit the jackpot' with their hires, as he said in his last letter. The 83-year-old billionaire investor hired Todd Combs and Ted Weschler to eventually manage all of Berkshire's investments once he is no longer at the helm, although he has no plans to step down. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Buffett fell short of his own performance target for the conglomerate for the first time since the Omaha, Neb., native took control of Berkshire in 1965. 

Mr. Buffett has long said he aims to increase Berkshire's net worth faster than the S&P 500's gains over the previous five-year period. Thanks to the index's robust gains in 2013, Mr. Buffett will fall short of that goal, according to analysts as well as calculations by The Wall Street Journal. 

Mr. Buffett warned shareholders that he expected to fall short of the measure, though they are unlikely to hold it against him: Berkshire shares gained about 30% last year and are trading at a premium to book value, a measure of the company's net worth. 

The investor plucked his investment managers from relative obscurity. Mr. Combs, 42 years old, ran a $400 million Connecticut hedge fund before he started work at Berkshire in 2011. He has beaten the S&P 500 three years in a row. 

Mr. Weschler oversaw a $2 billion Charlottesville, Va., firm and joined Berkshire in 2012. Mr. Weschler, 52, also had previously bid more than $5 million in charitable auctions to have private lunches with Mr. Buffett. 

In a phone interview, Mr. Buffett said the two managers--who, along with his financial assistant, Tracy Britt Cool, he calls the 'three T's'--now do much more than just pick stocks. 'They have helped Berkshire in significant ways that are not directly connected with investment management,' he said. 'They'll both be huge assets for decades to come.' 

Mr. Buffett, Berkshire's chief executive and chairman, also gave them more money to play with. Messrs. Combs and Weschler are each beginning 2014 with more than $7 billion to manage, up from about $3 billion each at the beginning of 2012, according to the people familiar with the matter. 

Both men are expected to take a larger role in overseeing the company's affairs, including acquisitions, in coming years. 

At $14 billion or so, the investments picked individually by Messrs. Combs and Weschler make up a small slice of Berkshire's massive U.S. portfolio of more than $100 billion. But the rapid increases in assets under management indicate Mr. Buffett's growing faith in their ability to spot winners. 

Their involvement in Berkshire's business dealings outside of investments is important because Berkshire's stock portfolio is only part of the conglomerate's overall value. Berkshire is a gigantic entity that also owns insurance operations, manufacturing and retailing businesses and one of the largest U.S. railroads. 

The two managers have mostly bought positions of less than $1 billion, which are small compared with the multibillion-dollar positions in Berkshire's 'Big Four' stocks-- Coca-Cola Inc., American Express Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and International Business Machines Corp. Picked by Mr. Buffett years ago, these four stocks collectively represented about $58 billion, or more than half of Berkshire's portfolio, at the end of the third quarter. Berkshire doesn't report its fourth-quarter stock holdings to regulators until next month. 

Many of the stocks picked by Messrs. Combs and Weschler significantly outpaced the S&P 500 in what was the strongest year for U.S. stocks in 16 years. 

Mr. Buffett has said that most of the small positions in Berkshire's portfolio of 43 stocks are likely investments made by either manager, while the large ones are his. 

'Those gentlemen are being allowed to practice stock picking the way Warren did...and run a concentrated equity portfolio,' said Bill Smead, whose Smead Capital Management owns 197,005 Berkshire Class B shares.

Mr. Smead said that DirecTV and DaVita Healthcare Partners Inc., DVA +0.28% a dialysis-treatment company that is an investment of the two managers, resemble the kind of 'toll-bridge' companies Mr. Buffett has talked about -businesses that collect 'tolls' customers must pay to access an essential product or service.

Anupreeta Das

2014年4月21日

中国“扫黄”重创白兰地销量

 

作为反对奢靡行动的一部分,中国对色情娱乐场所的打击正对白兰地行业构成严重威胁。欧洲酒业集团在中国内地的很大一部分利润就来自于这些被关闭的KTV和有陪侍的酒吧。

酒业分析师表示,中国政府对"黄赌毒"的打击(始于今年2月南方城市东莞)已对高端进口烈酒的销量造成了严重影响。

总部位于上海的中国市场研究集团(China Market Research Group)估计,在中国的白兰地总体销售中,有30%通过KTV会所、洗浴场所、有陪侍的酒吧以及其他色情娱乐场所售出。研究人员表示,自中国最新一轮"扫黄"行动以来,这些娱乐场所的白兰地销量最多已下挫50%。

保乐力加(Pernod Ricard)表示,约五分之一的在华业务来自KTV,今年迄今,这些场所的销售额出现"两位数下滑"。该公司年度净销售额为86亿欧元,其中约12%来自中国。

白兰地在中国民营企业老总中间颇受欢迎,他们往往会在有女性陪侍的娱乐场所招待客人。根据中国公安部的数据,在最新一轮"扫黄"行动中,有超过2400家这类场所被关闭。

"最新一轮扫黄行动对白兰地产业影响重大,因为……这次行动始于白兰地消费最为红火的中国南方,"酒业分析师特雷弗•斯特林(Trevor Stirling)和尼克尔•泰恩(Nicole Thain)在伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)最近发布的一份研究报告中称,"这次行动主要针对私人消费与商务招待,而这些活动更偏好消费西式烈酒,特别是高档白兰地。"他们估计,所谓的"黄色"产业是"白兰地酒商(在中国)最赚钱的渠道"。

据市场研究机构欧睿国际(Euromonitor)的数据,2012年,中国的白兰地销量超过2700万升,是2007年的两倍多,超过威士忌2100万升的销量。95%的市场份额由路威酩轩(LVMH)、保乐力加和人头马君度(Rémy Cointreau)瓜分。

保乐力加在最近其在亚洲的分析报告中强调,中国反腐行动的影响正日益加剧,包括该公司所称的最近针对KTV的"行动"。该公司表示:"我们正通过开发新产品以及拓展地域扩大我们的业务。"

人头马君度的情况也类似。该公司生产每瓶售价2000美元的路易十三白兰地。根据欧睿国际的数据,该公司占有中国20%的白兰地市场。最近一个季度,这家法国酿酒商的在华销售同比下滑三分之一。

中国政府之前发起的反腐行动已重创酒类消费,中国高端白酒的销售出现大幅下挫。白酒是政府官员青睐的酒类。其影响非常严重,已迫使白酒行业降低身段,将目标瞄准新的较低端消费者。

"这种俭朴政策不会减小力度,"人头马君度的首席财务官卢卡•马罗塔(Luca Marotta)表示,"相反,政府今年加紧了行动。"

中国日益增长的财富和人口意味着,中国仍是高端酒业集团的主要市场。人头马君度60%的白兰地收入来自亚洲和全球其他地区。"市场增长将不会来自一种或其他产品,"马罗塔表示,"它将来自中国人口状况的变化。"

然而,野村(Nomura)分析师伊恩•夏克莱顿(Ian Shackleton)表示,在中国,花2000美元买一瓶酒的狂热时期可能已经结束。

他表示,中期来看,中国烈酒市场将继续增长,但"我们认为超高端酒类已经不复往日了。如果你是人头马,关注于市场高端,那么你会很艰难。"

中信证券(Citic Securities)驻深圳食品和饮料分析师黄巍表示,影响有多大要看政府打击行动会持续多久。他补充称,政府行动也影响到威士忌等其他高端烈酒。他指出:"到这些娱乐场所消费的人们更喜欢鸡尾酒,白酒不适合用来调鸡尾酒。"

伯恩斯坦报告的作者们表示:"很多酒吧最终可能会重新开业,或者生意可能会流向其他没有受到'黄色'产业污染的酒吧。"

但黄巍认为,最终的结果可能是形成一个市场基础更为广泛的白兰地行业,除了花钱如流水的富人消费者之外,这个行业也将致力于扩大中产阶级的需求。

邓肯•罗宾逊(Duncan Robinson)和张嫣补充报道

译者/梁艳裳


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001055880