今年10月，中国的通胀率飙升至4.4%，创下两年多来的最高水平。中国政府担心：高通胀表明政府的刺激措施正在导致经济过热。
本周的Beyondbrics图表显示，中国的通胀主要是由食品价格上涨驱动的——10月份食品价格同比飙升10%，非食品价格同比仅上涨1.6%。仅靠加息恐怕并不能抑制住通胀。
由于全球大宗商品价格不断上扬，多数国家都出现了食品价格上涨高于总体通胀的情况。中国受影响尤甚的原因是，食品在总体通胀指数中的占比要大于美国和英国等国家。中国人收入中用于食品消费的部分所占比例相对较高。
蔬菜、水果和谷物价格的上涨尤为迅速，9月份同比上涨18%。乳制品、面包和饼干价格的涨幅则较为适度。
尽管如第二幅图表所示，城市和农村地区的食品价格均告上涨，但全国各地所受影响并不相同。9月份北京食品价格同比上涨5%，乌鲁木齐的涨幅则接近12%。
这表明，中国最贫穷地区受到的冲击最大。在乌鲁木齐、长春和昆明等人均收入在全国垫底的城市，食品价格涨幅均超过10%，而9月份全国的平均涨幅约为8%。这无疑将成为一个令中国政府感到担忧的因素。
不过，或许更令人担忧的是，常规的货币政策手段难以驯服食品通胀。加息固然会提高储蓄相对于消费和借债的吸引力，但对食品等生活必需品的需求往往影响较小。
当然，这不大可能吓住中国的政策制定者。
但是，他们或许需要采取其它措施来降低食品价格。一种选择是提高产量，尽管这种措施可能存在严重的滞后效应。另一种选择是提供补贴。这两种选择都将受到食品生产商的强烈抵制。
译者/汪洋
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035568
In October Chinese inflation soared to 4.4 per cent, its highest level in over two years. The authorities are concerned: high inflation suggests that the government’s stimulus measures are causing the economy to overheat.
This week’s beyondbrics chart (after the break) shows that Chinese inflation is being primarily driven by rising food prices, which have shot up 10 per cent since October 2009. The price of non-food items has risen by only 1.6 per cent in the same period. Reining in inflation may not be as straightforward as hiking interest rates.
Due to rising global commodity prices, food inflation is higher than general inflation in most countries. The reason China has been particularly affected is that food represents a larger component of its overall inflation index than, for example, in the US and UK. Chinese citizens spend a relatively high proportion of their income on food.
The price of vegetables, fruit and grains has increased especially fast, rising 18 per cent in September compared to one year before. Dairy products, breads and biscuits have seen more moderate growth.
While food prices have risen in both urban and rural areas, as the second chart illustrates, not all parts of the country have been equally affected. Whereas in Beijing year-on-year food inflation in September was 5 per cent, in north-western Urumqi it was almost 12 per cent.
This suggests it is the poorest parts of China that have been hit the hardest. Cities such as Urumqi, Changchun and Kunming - which have among the lowest per capita incomes in the country - have all experienced food inflation of more than 10 per cent. The national average for September was around 8 per cent. This will no doubt be a cause for concern for Chinese authorities.
Perhaps more concerning, though, is the fact that food inflation is difficult to tame with the conventional instrument of monetary policy. Raising interest rates - which makes saving more attractive relative to spending and borrowing - tends to have a smaller effect on the demand for essential goods such as food.
Of course, this is unlikely to deter Chinese policymakers.
But other measures may be needed to lower food prices. One possibility is to boost production, although there is likely to be a significant lag before the effects are felt. Another is to provide subsidies. Both options would be fiercely resisted by food producers.
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