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国政府对通货膨胀和国家经济增长过快发出警告之际，投资者应该怎么做？当然是买进了。
虽然通货膨胀率的上升速度高于预期，政府在周三实施了抑制银行放贷的措施，并且外界普遍预计中国央行将会再次加息给经济降温，中国基准的上证综合指数周四收盘还是涨了1%左右。宏源证券的分析师唐永刚说，对即将加息的担忧还会在市场上存在一段时间，但这也许不会扭转股市的中期上升趋势，当人们预期通货膨胀将上升的时候，大部分人会买进一些资产，如股票和黄金，来防止他们的财富贬值。
中国可能会继续采取先发制人的措施对抗通胀。汇丰（HSBC）的资深亚洲外汇策略师许尚贤(Daniel Hui)说，实际上在数据公布之前他们就在提前采取行动，而不是在数据公布之后相应采取行动；这将使人看出些许中国政府目前的政策走向。
投资者也许不会认为这些数据那么令人担忧。BBVA的经济师施瓦茨（Stephen Schwartz）说，虽然中国10月份的通胀率高得令人意外，但活动数据显示，中国经济仍运行在软着陆的轨道上。高通胀率表明食品价格上涨是由于需求增长，而非天气因素的影响。施瓦茨预计中国央行将会在2011年底前采取一系列紧缩措施对抗通胀，包括至少两次加息。他说，这将是个微调过程，虽然通胀升级，但工业生产和零售基本与预期相符，这让我们相信中国仍然在朝软着陆的方向迈进。
Rose Yu / Jean Yung
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
What do investors in China do when the government sounds a warning about inflation and the nation's heady economic growth?
Buy, of course.
China's benchmark Shanghai Composite index ended up about 1% Thursday despite a faster-than-expected inflation rate and moves Wednesday to curb bank lending. That's despite the natural conclusion that China's central bank could raise rates again to cool the economy. “Concerns about an imminent interest-rate hike will linger on the market for a while, but they may not reverse a mid-term upward trend for the stock market. When people expect inflation rate to rise, a large portion of them will buy some assets, such as shares and gold, to prevent their wealth from depreciating,” said Hong Yuan Securities analyst Tang Yonggang.
China likely to continue to take preemptive measures to counter inflation “They are really now acting preemptively ahead of data releases rather than in response to releases . This will tell you something about the current policy going on in Beijing,” said Daniel Hui, HSBC senior Asian forex strategist.
Investors may not also see the data as all that worrying. China's October inflation surprised on the upside, but activity data shows country still on track for soft landing, says BBVA economist Stephen Schwartz. High inflation indicates high demand pressure behind rising food prices rather than weather-related factors as house noted earlier. He expects the People's Bank of China to launch a mix of tightening measures by end-2011 to fight inflation, including at least two interest rate hikes . “It's going to be a fine-tuning exercise. Inflation is high but industrial production and retail sales are largely in-line with expectations and give us comfort that China is still heading to a soft landing.” he said.
Rose Yu / Jean Yung
Buy, of course.
China's benchmark Shanghai Composite index ended up about 1% Thursday despite a faster-than-expected inflation rate and moves Wednesday to curb bank lending. That's despite the natural conclusion that China's central bank could raise rates again to cool the economy. “Concerns about an imminent interest-rate hike will linger on the market for a while, but they may not reverse a mid-term upward trend for the stock market. When people expect inflation rate to rise, a large portion of them will buy some assets, such as shares and gold, to prevent their wealth from depreciating,” said Hong Yuan Securities analyst Tang Yonggang.
China likely to continue to take preemptive measures to counter inflation “They are really now acting preemptively ahead of data releases rather than in response to releases . This will tell you something about the current policy going on in Beijing,” said Daniel Hui, HSBC senior Asian forex strategist.
Investors may not also see the data as all that worrying. China's October inflation surprised on the upside, but activity data shows country still on track for soft landing, says BBVA economist Stephen Schwartz. High inflation indicates high demand pressure behind rising food prices rather than weather-related factors as house noted earlier. He expects the People's Bank of China to launch a mix of tightening measures by end-2011 to fight inflation, including at least two interest rate hikes . “It's going to be a fine-tuning exercise. Inflation is high but industrial production and retail sales are largely in-line with expectations and give us comfort that China is still heading to a soft landing.” he said.
Rose Yu / Jean Yung
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