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深私募股权投资人邦德曼(David Bonderman)说，大量资本涌进新兴市场可能造成一轮“期望值危机”，不过他同时也说新兴市场的机会仍旧好于美国和欧洲。
Bloomberg News
邦德曼是德州太平洋集团创始人邦德曼
邦德曼还质疑今年最大三宗首次公开募股(IPO)的融资额是否“现实”，因为它们加起来超过了美国1998年、1999年这两年全部IPO的融资总和。这三宗IPO分别是巴西国有能源公司Petrobras、中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)和友邦保险(AIA Group)。
但他说，不考虑其他情况，新兴市场的高增长率要好于增长率只有1%、甚至没有增长的美国或欧洲。
从TPG最近的投资来看，不难看出他为什么做出这样的判断。
该公司最大的损失包括它在华盛顿互惠银行(Washington Mutual Inc.)13亿美元的投资。当这家总部位于西雅图的存款银行在2008年破产并贱卖给摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)时，TPG这笔投资也就打了水漂。TPG也投资过知名电影公司米高梅(Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)，后者本月早些时候提出了破产申请。
把这两笔投资拿来跟它在中国的运气比一比吧。TPG将它在深圳发展银行(Shenzhen Development Bank Co.)中的投资卖给中国平安保险（集团）股份有限公司(Ping An Insurance (Group) Co.)，一共获利24亿美元左右，约为2004年购买深发展17%股权时所付资金1.5亿美元的16倍。
TPG在中国的扩张计划包括正在筹备的两只人民币基金。随着重庆一处新办公室的开张，它在中国市场的扩张又进一步向腹地深入。已经有很多公司从深圳、北京或上海等更知名的一线城市迁往内陆地区，TPG此举，也是跟从了这样一个越来越明显的趋势。
邦德曼说，中国有243座人口超过100万的城市，每一座城市都有它的机会。
Isabella Steger / Alison Tudor
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
http://www.cn.wsj.com/gb/20101112/dlj145301.asp?source=UpFeature
The huge flows of capital to emerging markets could lead to a “crisis of expectations,” according to David Bonderman, even as the veteran private equity investor noted that opportunities in emerging markets still outshine those in the U.S. and Europe.
Speaking at the AVCJ Forum today in Hong Kong, the founding partner of TPG warned of the huge volatility in emerging markets. “That’s good news for people who can take advantage of that volatility, bad news overall for what that means for people’s chances of success.” Regulatory risks and corruption in the developing world were dangers as well, he said.
Bonderman also questioned whether the volume of the three largest initial public offerings this year Petrobras, Agricultural Bank of China and AIA Group is “realistic,” given that together they raised more money than all the IPOs in the U.S. in 1998 and 1999 combined.
But “all things being equal,” emerging markets with high rates of growth were better than the U.S. or Europe, which are growing at 1% or not at all, he said.
Judging from his fund TPG’s recent track record, it’s not hard to see why.
In one of TPG’s worst losses, it saw its $1.3 billion investment in Washington Mutual Inc. wiped out in 2008 when the Seattle thrift collapsed and went to J.P. Morgan Chase in a fire-sale. TPG also was an investor in Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc., the venerable film studio which filed for bankruptcy earlier this month.
Compare that to its fortunes in China, where the firm altogether made about $2.4 billion from a deal selling its investment in Shenzhen Development Bank Co. to Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd. That’s about 16 times the $150 million the fund firm originally paid for 17% of Shenzhen Development Bank in 2004.
TPG’s expansion plans in China, which include two yuan funds in the works, are taking it further afield as it opens a new office in Chongqing. That move follows a growing trend of companies shifting inland, away from the better-known first-tier cities like Shenzhen, Beijing or Shanghai.
“There are 243 cities in China with over a million people in China,” each with opportunities of its own, said Bonderman.
Isabella Steger / Alison Tudor
Speaking at the AVCJ Forum today in Hong Kong, the founding partner of TPG warned of the huge volatility in emerging markets. “That’s good news for people who can take advantage of that volatility, bad news overall for what that means for people’s chances of success.” Regulatory risks and corruption in the developing world were dangers as well, he said.
Bonderman also questioned whether the volume of the three largest initial public offerings this year Petrobras, Agricultural Bank of China and AIA Group is “realistic,” given that together they raised more money than all the IPOs in the U.S. in 1998 and 1999 combined.
But “all things being equal,” emerging markets with high rates of growth were better than the U.S. or Europe, which are growing at 1% or not at all, he said.
Judging from his fund TPG’s recent track record, it’s not hard to see why.
In one of TPG’s worst losses, it saw its $1.3 billion investment in Washington Mutual Inc. wiped out in 2008 when the Seattle thrift collapsed and went to J.P. Morgan Chase in a fire-sale. TPG also was an investor in Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc., the venerable film studio which filed for bankruptcy earlier this month.
Compare that to its fortunes in China, where the firm altogether made about $2.4 billion from a deal selling its investment in Shenzhen Development Bank Co. to Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China Ltd. That’s about 16 times the $150 million the fund firm originally paid for 17% of Shenzhen Development Bank in 2004.
TPG’s expansion plans in China, which include two yuan funds in the works, are taking it further afield as it opens a new office in Chongqing. That move follows a growing trend of companies shifting inland, away from the better-known first-tier cities like Shenzhen, Beijing or Shanghai.
“There are 243 cities in China with over a million people in China,” each with opportunities of its own, said Bonderman.
Isabella Steger / Alison Tudor
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