中
国总理将对印度进行五年来的首次访问，试图在新德里加强同美国以及一些亚洲国家的防务与商贸联系时稳定一种至关重要的关系，美国和这些亚洲国家也正急切地渴望抑制北京在亚太地区日渐增长的影响力。
AFP/Getty Images
中国总理温家宝将于周三抵达印度开始为期三天的访问
在过去两年间因边界问题、签证、水资源以及中国同印度的地区性对手巴基斯坦间的紧密关系而发生一系列争端之后，北京盼望能进一步巩固中印关系。
中国目前的担忧是印度──它已是亚洲第三大经济体和第二大军事力量──正与美国以及它的亚洲伙伴结成松散的战略同盟，以此抗衡北京不断增强的经济和军事力量。
在过去的这一年中，中国还因中国东海有争议的岛屿与日本发生冲突，它宣称对中国南海拥有主权也惹怒了越南，此外，中国拒绝疏远朝鲜的做法也得罪了韩国。
中国官员试图为温家宝的访印之行营造出一种良好的气氛，他们周一呼吁达成一项自由贸易协定来缩减中国对印度的贸易顺差，还低调地处理了北京与新德里之间存在任何战略竞争的观点。今年是中印建交60周年。
此次温家宝之行──这是他自2005年以来首次访问印度──的一项关键性成果是双方有望签署一份共同的金融服务协议，中国希望该协议将为首家中资银行在印度开办业务开启大门，新德里则希望它能带来更多的中国投资，尤其是在印度基础设施发展领域。
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
印度外交秘书、前印度驻华大使拉奥(Nirupama Rao)(左)在主题为"中印在全球新秩序中的机遇和挑战"的会议上听取中国驻印度大使张炎(右)的发言
官员们说，中国应该首先开放从印度进口高附加值的产品。比如信息技术和医药产品，还应消除新德里对中印存有争端的喜马拉雅边界、一项具有争议的中国调水工程以及其它问题的长期担忧。
印度一方面强调增进同中国商业联系的必要性（中国如今已是印度第一大贸易伙伴），同时也在"对冲风险"，呼吁加强同其他因中国在该地区拥有的强大外交影响力而感到担忧的国家的合作。
印度外交秘书、前印度驻华大使拉奥(Nirupama Rao)在一次访问中说，对中国感到担心的亚洲国家之间无疑有必要加强协作。
拉奥说，新的合作关系显示出中国有必要更加清晰透明，有必要对于它在这一地区采取何种战略的问题提供更多的信息。
印度仍旧不愿意缔结正式的同盟，部分原因是因为它与不结盟运动的历史关联，正是这种不结盟运动使它过去既没有正式与美国也没有正式同苏联站在一边。与该地区的其他国家一样，考虑到贸易关系的重要性，印度也尽力避免与中国公开对抗。
然而，从2008年开始印度与美国发展了一种新型战略伙伴关系，当时两国签署协议废除了一项长达三十年的印度进口美国核燃料和技术的禁令。它还为美国增加对印度的武器销售以及更多的联合军事演习铺平了道路。
过去一年中，印度一直在促进与日本的贸易和防务关系；日本则正在调整冷战时期的防御原则，将重点更多放在中国可能构成的威胁上。
印度和日本正在推进自由贸易协定的计划，今年则开始在印度洋和日本海上进行海军演习，同时就防务和安全问题展开常规的高级别会谈。
一份印度和韩国签署的类似的贸易协定今年开始生效，今年9月在印度国防部长首次正式访问韩国期间，两国签署了共同生产军事装备的协议。
今年夏天，印度陆军总参谋长于15年来首次访问了越南，另外印度海军的一个小型舰队在太平洋上进行了为期一个月的巡访，期间访问了印尼、越南、澳大利亚和新加坡。
纽约市立大学（City University of New York）亚洲事务教授梅农（Rajan Menon）说，担心中国崛起的国家自然走到了一起，他们有一个共同的问题，那就是中国。
另一个值得中国担心的事情发生在上个月，当时美国总统奥巴马（Barack Obama）访问了印度，宣布支持印度成为联合国安理会（U.N. Security Council.）常任理事国。
联合国安理会五个常任理事国包括美国、中国、俄罗斯、法国和英国，它们具有对任何决定的否决权，中国担心该组织的改革可能会稀释它的国际影响力，并使二战时侵入中国的日本有可能成为常任理事国。
英国和法国的领导人7月以来也分别访问了印度，俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫（Dmitry Medvedev）将于下周访问印度。这三个国家均表示，他们支持印度成为联合国安理会的常任理事国。
印度与其他国家一样担心中国，但印度小心翼翼地不希望被卷入与中国的对抗关系中，而且试图主要通过贸易来改善与中国的关系。
过去10年中，印度与中国的双边贸易额增长了19倍，增至600亿美元。印度主要向中国出口铁矿石等原料。在贸易中，印度对中国形成了巨大的贸易逆差。
印度外交秘书拉奥说，除了希望中国向印度进口IT、制药和农产品，印度还希望中国资助数十亿美元帮助改善印度残破的基建设施。
拉奥琪说，（与中国）的关系要以非常微妙的方式处理。
印度新德里的Jamia Millia Islamia大学客座教授兰加查里（T.C.A. Rangachari）说，日本和韩国可能也不想联手印度对抗中国。兰加查里此前担任过印度驻多国大使，还在中国工作过。
奥巴马政府也面临着如何在不惹恼中国和巴基斯坦的前提下，援助印度的两难困境。
奥巴马2009年11月访华，比访问印度早一年。在美国与中国发表旨在共同促进南亚地区的和平与稳定的联合声明时，印度对奥巴马的中国之行表示了忧虑。另外美国与巴基斯坦军事联系紧密，令印度更加担心；巴基斯坦对于美国打击阿富汗塔里班的军事努力至关重要。
在一些领域，印度和中国处于统一战线上，其中包括在全球气候变化谈判中，他们都反对西方国家要求其签署限制二氧化碳排放的具有法律约束力的协定。
新德里尼赫鲁大学（Jawaharlal Nehru University）印中关系专家玛图（Amitabh Mattoo）说，总体来说，印度回应中国的态度变得更加果断了。
Jeremy Page / Tom Wright
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
China's premier is making his first visit to India in five years, trying to stabilize a crucial relationship as New Delhi forges closer defense and commercial ties with the U.S. and several Asian countries, which in turn are anxious to contain Beijing's growing clout across the Asia-Pacific region.
Wen Jiabao is scheduled to arrive in New Delhi on Wednesday with about 400 business leaders--one of the largest Chinese trade delegations ever to visit India--on a visit that China hopes will refocus relations on commerce and allow the first Chinese bank to operate in India.
Beijing is keen to bring more stability to the relationship following a string of disputes in the past two years over border issues, visas, water and China's close ties with Pakistan, India's regional rival.
The concern for China now is that India--with the region's third-biggest economy, and second-biggest armed forces--is being drawn into a loose strategic alliance with the U.S. and its Asian partners to counterbalance Beijing's growing economic and military might.
In the past year, China has also clashed with Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea, angered Vietnam by asserting Chinese claims over the South China Sea, and antagonized South Korea by refusing to distance itself from North Korea.
Chinese officials sought to smooth the way for Wen's visit Monday by calling for a free-trade agreement to help reduce China's trade surplus with India, and playing down the idea of any strategic competition between Beijing and New Delhi, which are marking the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year.
One of the key outcomes of Wen's visit--his first to India since 2005--is expected to be a joint financial-services agreement that China hopes will open the door for the first Chinese bank to start operating in India, and Delhi hopes will encourage more Chinese investment, especially in Indian infrastructure development.
However, Indian officials signaled that talks on a free-trade agreement are not in the cards when Wen meets Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, before traveling to Pakistan on Friday to meet Yousuf Raza Gilani, the prime minister of Pakistan.
Officials said China should first open its market to higher-value Indian exports, such as information technology and pharmaceutical products, as well as addressing New Delhi's continuing concerns about their disputed Himalayan border, a controversial Chinese water-diversion project and other issues.
And while emphasizing the need for closer commercial ties with China--now India's biggest trade partner--they are also hedging their bets by calling for closer cooperation with other countries concerned about forceful Chinese diplomacy in the region of late.
'Certainly there's a need for more coordination' between Asian countries concerned about China, Nirupama Rao, India's foreign secretary--and a former Indian ambassador in Beijing--said in an interview.
The new partnerships 'speak of the need...for China to be more transparent, for China to be more forthcoming about what its strategy is for the region.'
India remains reluctant to enter formal alliances, partly because of its historical links with the nonaligned movement that kept it from formally siding with the U.S. or the Soviet Union. Like other countries in the region, it also is anxious to avoid open confrontation with China because of the importance of the trade relationship.
Nonetheless, India has a new strategic partnership with the U.S. since 2008, when the two signed a deal that lifted a three-decade ban on India importing U.S. nuclear fuel and technology. It also opened the door to increased U.S. arms sales to India, and more joint military exercises.
In the past year, India has also been enhancing trade and defense ties with Japan, which is in the process of overhauling a Cold War-era defense doctrine to focus more on the potential threat from China.
India and Japan are pushing ahead with plans for a free-trade pact, and this year began joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Japan, as well as starting regular high-level talks over defense and security.
A similar trade pact between India and South Korea came into force this year, and Seoul and Delhi also signed a deal in September on joint production of military equipment during the first official visit ever by an Indian defense minister to South Korea.
This summer, India's army chief visited Vietnam for the first time in 15 years and an Indian Navy flotilla conducted a monthlong tour of the Pacific during which it visited Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and Singapore.
'There's a natural coming together' of nations that worry about China's rise, said Rajan Menon, a professor at the City University of New York who specializes in Asian affairs. 'They have a problem in common and that's China.'
Another cause for alarm in Beijing came last month, when President Barack Obama visited India and declared his support for New Delhi's quest for permanent membership of the U.N. Security Council.
The council's five permanent members--the U.S., China, Russia, France and Britain, known collectively as the P-5--have the power to veto any decision, and Beijing fears that any reform of the body would dilute its international clout, and also open the door for Japan, its wartime occupier, to become a permanent member.
The leaders of Britain and France also have visited India since July, and President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia is due to visit next week. All three have said they support India's permanent membership of the council.
As much as India shares other countries' concerns about China, however, it is wary of being drawn into a confrontational relationship with Beijing, and seeks to improve ties principally through trade.
India's bilateral trade with China has grown 20-fold in the past decade to $60 billion. New Delhi has a large trade deficit with China and exports mainly raw materials, such as iron ore.
In addition to wanting Beijing to open its markets to Indian exports of information technology, pharmaceutical and agricultural products, New Delhi is also hoping China will help fund some of the billion of dollars needed to improve India's rickety infrastructure, said Rao, the country's foreign secretary.
'This relationship [with China] has to be transacted in a very nuanced fashion,' she said.
Japan and South Korea might also be reluctant to build ties with India to the point of antagonizing China, says T.C.A. Rangachari, a visiting professor at New Delhi's Jamia Millia Islamia University and a former Indian ambassador to a number of countries who also served in China.
The Obama administration, too, faces a dilemma over how to bolster India without angering China and Pakistan.
The president chose to visit China in November 2009, a year before India. New Delhi expressed concern during that trip over a joint statement that Washington and Beijing aimed to work together to promote peace and stability in South Asia. Washington's close military ties with Pakistan, key to U.S. efforts to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan, has further worried India.
In some areas, India and China have shown a united front, including a position in global climate-change negotiations to resist calls from Western nations to sign up to legally binding caps on carbon-dioxide emissions.
Yet overall, India is responding to China 'with a greater degree of assertiveness,' says Amitabh Mattoo, an expert on India-China relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.
Jeremy Page / Tom Wright
Wen Jiabao is scheduled to arrive in New Delhi on Wednesday with about 400 business leaders--one of the largest Chinese trade delegations ever to visit India--on a visit that China hopes will refocus relations on commerce and allow the first Chinese bank to operate in India.
Beijing is keen to bring more stability to the relationship following a string of disputes in the past two years over border issues, visas, water and China's close ties with Pakistan, India's regional rival.
The concern for China now is that India--with the region's third-biggest economy, and second-biggest armed forces--is being drawn into a loose strategic alliance with the U.S. and its Asian partners to counterbalance Beijing's growing economic and military might.
In the past year, China has also clashed with Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea, angered Vietnam by asserting Chinese claims over the South China Sea, and antagonized South Korea by refusing to distance itself from North Korea.
Chinese officials sought to smooth the way for Wen's visit Monday by calling for a free-trade agreement to help reduce China's trade surplus with India, and playing down the idea of any strategic competition between Beijing and New Delhi, which are marking the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year.
One of the key outcomes of Wen's visit--his first to India since 2005--is expected to be a joint financial-services agreement that China hopes will open the door for the first Chinese bank to start operating in India, and Delhi hopes will encourage more Chinese investment, especially in Indian infrastructure development.
However, Indian officials signaled that talks on a free-trade agreement are not in the cards when Wen meets Manmohan Singh, the Indian prime minister, before traveling to Pakistan on Friday to meet Yousuf Raza Gilani, the prime minister of Pakistan.
Officials said China should first open its market to higher-value Indian exports, such as information technology and pharmaceutical products, as well as addressing New Delhi's continuing concerns about their disputed Himalayan border, a controversial Chinese water-diversion project and other issues.
And while emphasizing the need for closer commercial ties with China--now India's biggest trade partner--they are also hedging their bets by calling for closer cooperation with other countries concerned about forceful Chinese diplomacy in the region of late.
'Certainly there's a need for more coordination' between Asian countries concerned about China, Nirupama Rao, India's foreign secretary--and a former Indian ambassador in Beijing--said in an interview.
The new partnerships 'speak of the need...for China to be more transparent, for China to be more forthcoming about what its strategy is for the region.'
India remains reluctant to enter formal alliances, partly because of its historical links with the nonaligned movement that kept it from formally siding with the U.S. or the Soviet Union. Like other countries in the region, it also is anxious to avoid open confrontation with China because of the importance of the trade relationship.
Nonetheless, India has a new strategic partnership with the U.S. since 2008, when the two signed a deal that lifted a three-decade ban on India importing U.S. nuclear fuel and technology. It also opened the door to increased U.S. arms sales to India, and more joint military exercises.
In the past year, India has also been enhancing trade and defense ties with Japan, which is in the process of overhauling a Cold War-era defense doctrine to focus more on the potential threat from China.
India and Japan are pushing ahead with plans for a free-trade pact, and this year began joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Japan, as well as starting regular high-level talks over defense and security.
A similar trade pact between India and South Korea came into force this year, and Seoul and Delhi also signed a deal in September on joint production of military equipment during the first official visit ever by an Indian defense minister to South Korea.
This summer, India's army chief visited Vietnam for the first time in 15 years and an Indian Navy flotilla conducted a monthlong tour of the Pacific during which it visited Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia and Singapore.
'There's a natural coming together' of nations that worry about China's rise, said Rajan Menon, a professor at the City University of New York who specializes in Asian affairs. 'They have a problem in common and that's China.'
Another cause for alarm in Beijing came last month, when President Barack Obama visited India and declared his support for New Delhi's quest for permanent membership of the U.N. Security Council.
The council's five permanent members--the U.S., China, Russia, France and Britain, known collectively as the P-5--have the power to veto any decision, and Beijing fears that any reform of the body would dilute its international clout, and also open the door for Japan, its wartime occupier, to become a permanent member.
The leaders of Britain and France also have visited India since July, and President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia is due to visit next week. All three have said they support India's permanent membership of the council.
As much as India shares other countries' concerns about China, however, it is wary of being drawn into a confrontational relationship with Beijing, and seeks to improve ties principally through trade.
India's bilateral trade with China has grown 20-fold in the past decade to $60 billion. New Delhi has a large trade deficit with China and exports mainly raw materials, such as iron ore.
In addition to wanting Beijing to open its markets to Indian exports of information technology, pharmaceutical and agricultural products, New Delhi is also hoping China will help fund some of the billion of dollars needed to improve India's rickety infrastructure, said Rao, the country's foreign secretary.
'This relationship [with China] has to be transacted in a very nuanced fashion,' she said.
Japan and South Korea might also be reluctant to build ties with India to the point of antagonizing China, says T.C.A. Rangachari, a visiting professor at New Delhi's Jamia Millia Islamia University and a former Indian ambassador to a number of countries who also served in China.
The Obama administration, too, faces a dilemma over how to bolster India without angering China and Pakistan.
The president chose to visit China in November 2009, a year before India. New Delhi expressed concern during that trip over a joint statement that Washington and Beijing aimed to work together to promote peace and stability in South Asia. Washington's close military ties with Pakistan, key to U.S. efforts to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan, has further worried India.
In some areas, India and China have shown a united front, including a position in global climate-change negotiations to resist calls from Western nations to sign up to legally binding caps on carbon-dioxide emissions.
Yet overall, India is responding to China 'with a greater degree of assertiveness,' says Amitabh Mattoo, an expert on India-China relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.
Jeremy Page / Tom Wright
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