2010年12月13日

温家宝印度之行谈什么? Wen’s trip to India stirs old squabbles

 

中国总理温家宝两天后就将抵达新德里,而在此之际,两国之间的外交正面临人们所熟悉的阻力。

周一,中国驻印度大使张炎表示,全球增长最快的两个大型经济体之间的关系是很脆弱的,而且一旦出现损坏后,修复起来相当困难。他还强调中国希望达成一项自由贸易协定;而印方并不希望签署这样的协定。

对此,新德里方面提出,在温家宝启动5年来首次访印时,将以“红地毯”相迎。印方还对本国喧闹嘈杂的民主体制进行了解释。与印度共享4000公里边界的一党制的中国,很容易误解这种体制。

为了凸显两个大国之间的睦邻友好关系,印度高级外交官白加尉(Vishnu Prakash)表示,两国领导人在过去一年的交流达到了一个“质的高度”。

新德里方面自豪地提到在印度中学教学大纲中引入中文课这一决定的势头。印方认为,这一步骤是一种“信心构建”战略。

北京方面在高层访问前夕让新德里不安的做法并不新鲜。4年前,时任中国驻印大使孙玉玺就曾在胡锦涛访印之前引发了一场外交争吵。当时他重申,中国对印度东北部与西藏接壤的阿鲁纳恰尔邦(Arunachal Pradesh)拥有主权,此言激起了争议。

边界争端,以及印度眼里中国的自信态度(尤其是在领土主张和海上实力方面),仍让印度耿耿于怀。这一点,加上中国对印度对手巴基斯坦的支持,已促使印度针对强大的北方邻国加强防御,包括改造前线机场和组建新的山地作战部队。

然而,当温家宝在本周三开始对印度进行为期3天的访问之际,他和印度总理曼莫汉•辛格(Manmohan Singh)将会希望回避曾在1962年导致两国短暂开战的领土分歧。

鉴于中印双边贸易今年估计将达到600亿美元,两位领导人都将强调经济合作关系,其中包括扩大金融服务领域的合作。

一个由400名企业老总组成的商界代表团将随同温家宝出访,规模超过了英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)、美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)以及法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)近期先后带来的大型代表团。

这展示了中国超越西方、从全球前景最光明的消费驱动型新兴市场之一赢得业务的意愿。一些人估计,中国代表团有望签署价值高达200亿美元的生意。

温家宝将在贸易失衡问题上面对一些压力,并听取印方在水资源问题上的关切。中国对印贸易存在巨额顺差。印度方面的普遍看法是,印度向中国出口矿产,而中国向印度出口制成品。印度正大力要求中国对印度信息技术企业、食品、娱乐业和医药进一步开放市场准入。

不过,印度领导人想方设法掩盖印度国内对中国崛起日益加剧的不安情绪。

印度外交秘书拉奥琦(Nirupama Rao)本月在一次演讲中敦促印度人下更大功夫去理解中国。“依我看,中国和印度是竞争对手这种说法是一种过度概括,是对一种复杂关系的过度简单化,”她说。

中国也表现出谨慎的和缓态度。

“两国领导人一致认为,世界上有足够的空间供中印同时发展,”外交部部长助理胡正跃周一表示。

但是,尽管中印本周采取种种“信心构建”措施,在温家宝离开德里不久之后,疑心就可能加重。温家宝此次出访的下一站是伊斯兰堡。世界上多数国家的领导人会避免这样的行程顺序,以求承认这样一个事实,即印度的全球地位越来越高,而不只是在与同样拥有核武的巴基斯坦角力。

译者/和风


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036016


 

Only two days before Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prem­ier, arrives in New Delhi, diplomacy across the Himalayas is facing familiar headwinds.

On Monday, Zhang Yan, Beijing’s ambassador to New Delhi, said relations between the world’s two fastest-growing large economies were “very fragile” and, once damaged, difficult to repair. He also emphasised China’s desire for a free-trade agreement that India does not want.

New Delhi countered by offering to roll out the “red carpet” for Mr Wen on his first visit for five years. It also made excuses for a rumbustious and vocal democracy easily misunderstood by the one-party state on the other side of a shared 4,000km border.

To press home good neighbourliness between the two big powers, one of India’s senior diplomats, Vishnu Prakash, said ex­changes between the countries’ leaderships had reached a “qualitative high” over the past year.

New Delhi has celebrated the momentum with a decision to introduce Mandarin Chinese into Indian secondary schools’ curriculum – a step it views as a “confidence-building” strategy.

Beijing’s moves to put New Delhi on edge before a high-level visit are nothing new. Four years ago, the then Chinese ambassador sparked a diplomatic row before President Hu Jintao arrived. Sun Yuxi stirred controversy by reaffirming China’s claim over the north-eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, bordering Tibet.

The border dispute – and what New Delhi sees as China’s assertiveness, particularly over territorial claims and maritime power – still rankles. This, and China’s support for India’s rival Pakistan, have led India to strengthen its defences against its powerful northern neighbour with upgraded airstrips and new mountain battalions.

Yet during Mr Wen’s three-day visit beginning on Wednesday, he and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh will hope to skirt around the territorial dis­agreements that sparked a brief war in 1962.

With bilateral trade worth an estimated $60bn this year, both leaders will highlight economic partnership, including an expansion of financial services.

Mr Wen is bringing with him a delegation of 400 business leaders. This trumps the large delegations brought by David Cameron, the UK prime minister, Barack Obama, the US president, and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France in recent weeks.

It also displays China’s will to outdo the west in winning business in one of the world’s most promising consumption-driven emerging markets. By some estimations, Beijing’s delegation stands to strike deals worth up to $20bn.

Mr Wen will face pressure over imbalances and hear concerns about water resources. China enjoys a large surplus in its trade with its neighbour. A common perception in India is that it exports minerals to China, while manufactured goods come back in return. New Delhi is pressing Beijing hard for greater market access for its IT companies, food products, entertainment industry and pharmaceuticals.

However, Indian leaders have gone out of their way to mask a growing disquiet in India about China’s rise.

In a speech this month, Nirupama Rao, the foreign secretary, urged Indians to take more trouble to understand China. “The view that China and India are rivals to me is an over-generalisation as well as an over-­simplification of a complex relationship,” she said.

China, too, has shown wary emollience.

“Leaders of our two countries have agreed that there is enough space in the world for China and India to develop together,” Hu Zhengyue, assistant foreign minister, said on Monday.

But despite this week’s “confidence-building” measures, distrust is likely to rise shortly after Mr Wen leaves Delhi. His next destination is Islamabad – a sequence avoided by most world leaders wishing to acknowledge India’s growing global stature beyond its nuclear-armed standoff with Pakistan.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036016/en

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