官
方消息：中国外交部于本周二宣布，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国已经达成一致，决定邀请南非加入自身所在的"金砖四国"（BRIC）新兴经济体集团。尚未有公告提及集团的首字母缩写会否因此改变，不过，作为可能的选择之一，"BRICSA"听起来还是满不错的。
RODGER BOSCH/AFP/Getty Images
11月，中国副主席习近平（左）与南非副总统Kgalema Motlanthe
如此说来，"金砖四国"基本上只是投资者心目当中的一个概念、一个源自现有成员国名的概念，南非怎么能加入进去呢？除此之外，南非并不具备集团各成员之间的那个主要共同特征：快速增长的经济。
事情的真相是，北京方面的意思不过是南非可以来参加"金砖四国"的一次会议而已。在本周二的一次新闻发布会上，外交部女发言人姜瑜说，"金砖四国"已经邀请南非加入"'金砖四国'合作机制"，具体说就是，邀请它来参加明年在中国举行的第三届"金砖四国"年度峰会。
南非的加入将会巩固作为发展中国家政治联合体──这想必不是高盛的初衷──的"'金砖四国'合作机制"。2009年，"金砖四国"在俄罗斯举行了首届峰会，议题包括国际金融系统改革和推出一种新的主要储备货币的可能性。从那个时候起，"金砖四国"就开始了从经济到政治的转变。从这个意义上说，它也许跟那个人称"基础四国"（BASIC）的集团最为相似。"基础四国"出现在哥本哈根气候变化峰会期间，由巴西、南非、印度和中国等四个发展中国家组成。目前还没有消息显示俄罗斯会否加入"基础四国"（它要是加入的话，集团的简称会是BRASIC还是CRABSI呢？）。
此前，南非总统雅各布•祖马一直在为加入"金砖四国"造势。在今年8月对中国的一次国事访问中，他指出，"金砖四国"当中没有代表非洲的国家。他还在北京的一次新闻发布会上说，"当今世界，任何一个正儿八经的集团"都不能缺少非洲的代表。
不管合作机制如何演变，南非都还有很多工作要做，这样才能作为一个华尔街宠儿跻身"金砖四国"的行列。扫一眼预计的经济增长率，你就会知道原因何在。据国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）估计，2010年，南非的国内生产总值将会增长3.0%，这个数字虽然说得过去，但却算不上特别喜人。与此同时，国际货币基金组织估计中国、巴西和印度的国内生产总值今年将会分别增长10.5%，7.5% 和9.7%，"金砖四国"当中的后进分子俄罗斯也会有4.0%的增长。
另一方面，高盛公司对经济体集团的扩张模式另有看法。在2007年4月的一份报告当中，这家投行提出，"'金砖四国'之外"，世上还可以有一个"Next 11"或者"N-11"集团。报告说，"'N-11'集团对世界经济的影响力兴许不能与'金砖四国'相提并论，但却显示出了值得注意的增长潜力。"高盛提出的"N-11"集团包括孟加拉、埃及、印度尼西亚、伊朗、韩国、墨西哥、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、土耳其和越南。没有南非的份儿。
Aaron Back
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
It's official. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday that Brazil, Russia, India and China have agreed to invite South Africa to join their grouping of emerging economies, referred to as BRIC.
There's been no announcement as to whether the acronym might change, but one possibility, BRICSA, has nice ring to it.
South Africa's government will be pleased. But the notion has left some scratching their heads. BRIC, after all, is a term coined by a Goldman Sachs economistin 2001 to refer to the four large, fast-growing economies that collectively will take up an ever-greater share of global economic output. Since then, it has become a popular term on Wall Street as a kind of short-hand for the red-hot developing economies that excite investors. (The Chinese translation renders the term BRIC as 'gold brick,' adding even more luster to the concept. Sell-side analysts around the world might approve.)
So how could South Africa join what is essentially a concept in the minds of investorsâ 'one defined by the names of its four existing constituents--especially when the rainbow nation lacks the main unifying characteristic of the group: a fast-growing economy?
Turns out that what Beijing actually means is that South Africa can participate in a meeting of the BRIC nations. Speaking at a press briefing Tuesday, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Jiang Yu said that South Africa has been invited to join the 'BRIC cooperation mechanism'â 'specifically, to attend the third annual summit of BRIC countries in China next year.
The addition of South Africa will solidify the 'BRIC cooperation mechanism' as a political grouping of developing countriesâ 'not, presumably, what Goldman originally had in mind. The transition has been underway since the first BRIC summit in Russia in 2009, where the four countries discussed reform of the international financial system and possibility of a new dominant reserve currency. In this sense, it is perhaps most similar to the bloc of four developing countries known as BASIC that emerged at the Copenhagen climate change summit, comprising Brazil, South Africa, India and China. There's no word so far on whether Russia will be joining that group (making it BRASIC? CRABSI?).
South African President Jacob Zuma has been campaigning to join BRIC. On a state visit to China in August, he noted that there is no African country represented. There is no 'serious grouping in the world today' that lacks African representation, he said at a press briefing in Beijing.
Whatever happens with the cooperation mechanism, for South Africa to actually join its BRIC peers as a darling of Wall Street, it still has work to do. A quick look at projected growth rates shows why. The International Monetary Fund estimates that South African gross domestic product will likely grow a respectable but unexceptional 3.0% in 2010. The IMF projects that China, Brazil, and India will grow by 10.5%, 7.5% and 9.7% respectively this year. Russian, the BRIC laggard, is expected to grow 4.0%.
In the meantime, Goldman Sachs has its own ideas on how the grouping could be expanded. In an April 2007 report ( PDF) 'Beyond the BRICs,' the bank proposed a new grouping of the 'Next 11,' or N-11. 'While the N-11 may not have the same transformative impact on the world economy that the BRICs may realise, they nonetheless present interesting growth stories,' the report said. The N-11 includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. But not South Africa.
Aaron Back
There's been no announcement as to whether the acronym might change, but one possibility, BRICSA, has nice ring to it.
South Africa's government will be pleased. But the notion has left some scratching their heads. BRIC, after all, is a term coined by a Goldman Sachs economistin 2001 to refer to the four large, fast-growing economies that collectively will take up an ever-greater share of global economic output. Since then, it has become a popular term on Wall Street as a kind of short-hand for the red-hot developing economies that excite investors. (The Chinese translation renders the term BRIC as 'gold brick,' adding even more luster to the concept. Sell-side analysts around the world might approve.)
So how could South Africa join what is essentially a concept in the minds of investorsâ 'one defined by the names of its four existing constituents--especially when the rainbow nation lacks the main unifying characteristic of the group: a fast-growing economy?
Turns out that what Beijing actually means is that South Africa can participate in a meeting of the BRIC nations. Speaking at a press briefing Tuesday, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Jiang Yu said that South Africa has been invited to join the 'BRIC cooperation mechanism'â 'specifically, to attend the third annual summit of BRIC countries in China next year.
The addition of South Africa will solidify the 'BRIC cooperation mechanism' as a political grouping of developing countriesâ 'not, presumably, what Goldman originally had in mind. The transition has been underway since the first BRIC summit in Russia in 2009, where the four countries discussed reform of the international financial system and possibility of a new dominant reserve currency. In this sense, it is perhaps most similar to the bloc of four developing countries known as BASIC that emerged at the Copenhagen climate change summit, comprising Brazil, South Africa, India and China. There's no word so far on whether Russia will be joining that group (making it BRASIC? CRABSI?).
South African President Jacob Zuma has been campaigning to join BRIC. On a state visit to China in August, he noted that there is no African country represented. There is no 'serious grouping in the world today' that lacks African representation, he said at a press briefing in Beijing.
Whatever happens with the cooperation mechanism, for South Africa to actually join its BRIC peers as a darling of Wall Street, it still has work to do. A quick look at projected growth rates shows why. The International Monetary Fund estimates that South African gross domestic product will likely grow a respectable but unexceptional 3.0% in 2010. The IMF projects that China, Brazil, and India will grow by 10.5%, 7.5% and 9.7% respectively this year. Russian, the BRIC laggard, is expected to grow 4.0%.
In the meantime, Goldman Sachs has its own ideas on how the grouping could be expanded. In an April 2007 report ( PDF) 'Beyond the BRICs,' the bank proposed a new grouping of the 'Next 11,' or N-11. 'While the N-11 may not have the same transformative impact on the world economy that the BRICs may realise, they nonetheless present interesting growth stories,' the report said. The N-11 includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. But not South Africa.
Aaron Back
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