对于全球化而言，2011年将是艰难的一年。2008年证明了全球化时代既能创造更快的增长，也能带来更猛的衰退——"美国制造"的危机迅速蔓延至全球。在2009年，人们体会到了全球性应对措施的好处，但2010年分歧重现。亚洲经济增长迅速回升，但发达国家仍深陷高失业率的泥沼。2011年两者间的差异将继续加大。尽管有证据表明，凯恩斯主义的政策行之有效（中国就是最突出的例证），而财政紧缩会导致可预见的经济萎缩，但欧洲大部分国家仍在推行紧缩政策。旨在谋求经济复苏的协同宏观政策已成为一个模糊的记忆。
更糟糕的是，美国的量化宽松政策如今被视为大萧条(Great Depression)标志性政策的最新版本。世界如梦初醒般意识到，汇率可以以牺牲他国利益为代价、服务于本国利益——遏制进口，并推动出口。美国表示，其货币政策通过降低利率、而非汇率来促进投资。而新兴国家则宣称，其干预行为是为了累积储备，而非保护自己免受资本市场动荡之累。
这种"以邻为壑"的政策在上世纪30年代没派上用场，因为其它国家也回敬以同样的政策。如今的情况也是如此。的确，新兴市场已经以资本管控、资本利得税、汇率干预以及低利率，来应对不受欢迎的资金流入。结果如何呢？金融市场的不确定性加剧，资本市场更加分化，而全球化趋势出现明显的逆转。
因此，全球化的拥趸们将面临一个日益艰难的时期，因为有人认为，亚洲的经济繁荣是以牺牲其它国家的就业为代价的。政治领袖们可能会要求缔结新的贸易协定，但批评者会指出，这种协议通常也会带来金融与资本市场的开放——而正是这种开放政策催生了危机，并导致其迅速蔓延。那些有可能因此丢掉工作的美国人和欧洲人的抗议声将尤其响亮。
让我们暂且做一回白日梦，想象一下今年的情势会有所改善——围绕一种全球性储备货币的工作启动，全球金融监管取得进展，20国集团发展成一个新的全球经济合作理事会，能够让世界上其它172个经济体纷纷加盟。世界有望就一个真正的发展性贸易回合取得进展，同时欧洲或许能实现亟需的制度改革，以确保欧元的存续，使全球金融市场回复表面上的平稳。其中有些愿望有可能实现，不过我不敢打赌。但我们仍应继续努力，确保尽可能多的梦想、在不那么遥远的将来得以实现。
本文作者是哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)教授，2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。
译者/管婧
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036367
2011 will be a hard year for globalisation. 2008 showed that our global era can bring faster growth, but faster declines too – as a crisis made in America spread quickly. 2009 saw the benefits of a global response, but in 2010 divisions returned. Asian growth bounced back, but advanced countries were mired in high unemployment. 2011 will see further divergences. In spite of evidence that Keynesian policies worked (China being the pre-eminent case) and austerity led to predictable contractions, much of Europe is pushing austerity anyway. The moment of coordinated macropolicies aimed at recovery is a faint memory.
Worse, America's quantitative easing is now viewed as an update of the policies that marked the Great Depression. The world is waking up to the way exchange rates can be used in self-promotion at the expense of others – discouraging imports and enhancing exports. America says its monetary policy promotes investment by lowering interest rates, not exchange rates. But emerging countries claim their interventions are to build up reserves, not protect against volatile capital markets.
Such beggar-thy-neighbour policies didn't work in 1930s, because countries responded in kind. Today the same will happen. Indeed, emerging markets are already responding to unwanted funds with capital controls, taxes on capital gains, exchange rate interventions and lower interest rates. The result? More uncertainty in financial markets, greater fragmentation of capital markets, and a marked reversal in globalisation.
Globalisation's cheerleaders will thus face an increasingly hard time, as the boom in Asia is seen to come at the expense of jobs elsewhere. Political leaders may push for new trade agreements, but critics will note that such deals typically bring financial and capital market liberalisation too – just the policies that contributed to the crisis, and its rapid spread. Those Americans and Europeans who risk losing their jobs will be especially vocal in protest.
In a moment of dreaming one can imagine a better year – with work on a global reserve currency begun, progress made on global financial regulation, and the group of 20 leading nations evolving into a new global economic coordinating council capable of bringing many of the world's other 172 economies on board. There is hope for progress on a true development trade round, while Europe could make the institutional reforms needed to ensure the survival of the euro, enabling a semblance of stability to global financial markets. Some of this could happen, although I wouldn't bet on it. But we should still strive to make sure as many of these dreams come true as possible in the not too distant future.
The writer is university professor at Columbia University, and was awarded a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 2001
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