Bloomberg News
可口可乐公司的全球销量中有近75%来自碳酸饮料。
过
去13年来，美国人喝掉的可口可乐越来越少。如今健怡可乐(Diet Coke)的销量亦在锐减。出于人们对过多糖分摄入和肥胖问题的担忧，全球碳酸饮料的销售增长正在放缓。 这种趋势出现在整个行业，但对可口可乐公司(Coca-Cola Co. KO +0.07% )来说，这一情况更显糟糕。该公司在全球近75%的饮料销量来自其碳酸饮料业务。 Bevmark LLC的行业咨询师汤姆·皮尔科(Tom Pirko)说："含糖汽水不是未来行业的发展趋势，这是个已经实际存在的问题。" 越来越多的行业分析师认为，可口可乐公司应该减少可口可乐系列饮品的广告开销，转而在公司业务多元化方面做更积极的投入──比如通过收购类似Monster Beverage Corp.这样的能量饮料生产商。去年，可口可乐公司生产的包括美汁源(Minute Maid)、Dasani纯净水和Powerade运动饮料在内的非碳酸饮料销量增长了5%。 不过，这些并非可口可乐公司表示打算大力推广的产品。相反，这家总部位于亚特兰大的公司计划将用于其招牌产品上的投入增加一倍。该公司正在加大广告投放力度并推出新产品，还请来歌手泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)做代言人。去年，公司的碳酸饮料在美国的销量下滑2%，但首席执行长穆泰康(Muhtar Kent)当时曾说，这不正常。他说，即便在美国，碳酸饮料业务也能重回健康增长的轨道──尤其是对一个像可口可乐这样的品牌来说。 今年2月，穆泰康对投资者说：可口可乐依然保持着魔力，我们需要更加努力，在世界的每一个角落续写这一品牌的传奇。穆泰康经常将旗舰产品可口可乐比作公司的"氧气"和"生命线"。 为此，他计划在未来三年将公司的全球广告开销增加10亿美元。该公司去年的花费是33亿美元。在增加的预算中，相当一部分将用于推广雪碧和芬达等碳酸饮料品牌。可口可乐表示，对今年巴西世界杯足球赛的赞助将成为公司有史以来最大的营销活动。 
Zuma Press
可口可乐的全球销售网络为人熟知。图为该公司位于亚特兰大总部附近的"可口可乐世界"(World of Coca-Cola)永久展览。
Bloomberg News
可口可乐计划在未来三年将全球广告支出增加10亿美元。图为缅甸一家可口可乐灌装工厂。
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
For 13 years running, Americans have been drinking less Coke. Now Diet Coke sales are falling off a cliff. Globally, sales growth of soda is slowing amid concerns about sugar intake and obesity.
The trends are industrywide, but it is especially bad news for Coca-Cola Co., a company that derives almost 75% of its global sales volume from carbonated soft drinks.
'Sugar water with bubbles is not the future of the world. There's an existential issue,' said Tom Pirko, an industry consultant at Bevmark LLC.
A growing number of industry analysts suggest Coca-Cola should spend less to advertise cola and more to diversify aggressively through acquisitions of companies, like energy-drink maker Monster Beverage Corp. Sales of Coke's nonsodas, including Minute Maid juice, Dasani water and Powerade sports drinks, rose 5% last year by volume.
But that isn't what Coke says it has in store. Instead, the Atlanta-based company plans to double down on its namesake brand. The company is boosting advertising, introducing new products, and using singer Taylor Swift as a pitchwoman. Chief Executive Muhtar Kent has said that last year, when Coke's U.S. soda volume dropped 2%, was an anomaly. Soda can return to healthy growth, even in the U.S., especially if it is a brand name like Coke, he said.
'Coca-Cola remains magical. We need to work even harder to enhance the romance of the brand in every corner of the world,' Mr. Kent told investors in February. He regularly refers to flagship Coke as the company's 'oxygen' and 'lifeblood.'
For starters, he plans to increase global advertising by $1 billion over the next three years. The company spent $3.3 billion last year. Much of the increase will be devoted to soda, including the Sprite and Fanta brands. Coke says its sponsorship of this year's World Cup soccer tournament in Brazil will be the company's largest marketing campaign ever.
Coke is defending aspartame, the main artificial sweetener in diet soda, citing more than 200 studies affirming its safety. At the same time, it plans to roll out Coca-Cola Life, a moderate-calorie version sweetened with stevia plant extract, across more countries, after releasing the drink in Argentina and Chile last year.
Coke in February struck a deal to sell soda through Keurig Green Mountain Inc.'s countertop machines, inching closer to a former executive's dream that Coke one day would stream from kitchen taps.
The company defends its course, noting that its global beverage volume rose 2% last year and revenue increased 3%, in currency-neutral terms, despite tough economic conditions. Coke says it has continued to win market share in the U.S. and globally from PepsiCo Inc. and other rivals in soda and noncarbonated beverages. Past investments in its core brands, including Coke, consistently have paid off, it says.
Coke said Mr. Kent wasn't available for comment, citing the quiet period ahead of its earning report on April 15. Foreign-exchange losses from a strengthening dollar are expected to place a significant drag on profit this year.
Skepticism is growing--even inside the company--about whether Coke can still meet its target for 3% to 4% annual volume growth in a world in which soda volume rose only 0.9% last year, according to Euromonitor.
At a global planning meeting late last year, Steve Cahillane, who then was president of Coca-Cola Americas, said growth targets were unrealistic, according to people familiar with the matter. He had been viewed as a potential successor to Mr. Kent. A few weeks later, Mr. Cahillane left the company in an organizational shake-up.
John Faucher, a beverage analyst at J.P. Morgan, said Coke should diversify more aggressively through acquisitions. Coke already is the world's biggest juice company but could bulk up in areas like tea, coffee and dairy, where it is a much smaller player. 'Interest rates are low and they have a ton of cash,' Mr. Faucher said.
Coke's cash and short-term investments totaled $17.12 billion at the end of December, up from $13.46 billion a year earlier.
Industry trackers say potential U.S. candidates could include Arizona Beverage Co., with an estimated market share of 25% in ready-to drink teas, and Monster, the country's biggest energy drink maker by volume. But Arizona's owners are locked in a protracted court dispute, and Monster's marketing and ingredients are being scrutinized by regulators, complicating any deals.
Mr. Kent has said that Coke is always looking at acquisitions, but the company declines to comment on any possible targets.
Coke still has plenty of supporters, including Berkshire Hathaway Inc., long the beverage maker's largest shareholder. 'I'm 100% in accord with Coca-Cola's business strategy and regard Muhtar Kent as the ideal CEO for Coca-Cola,' Berkshire Chairman Warren Buffett said by email.
Coke already has 11 nonsoda brands with more than $1 billion each in retail sales and an unrivaled distribution network, and operates in every country except Cuba and North Korea. In Eurasia and Africa, Coke's beverage volume rose 7% last year.
'This is more of an emerging-markets and developing-markets story; that's the way we look at it,' said Kurt Havnaer, a portfolio manager at Jensen Quality Growth Fund. The U.S. mutual fund owns about $150 million in Coke shares.
Still, investors have cooled on Coke. The company's share price has fallen 2.7% over the past year, while the S&P 500 has climbed 21%. Last week, Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the world's largest brewer, supplanted Coke as the biggest beverage company by stock-market capitalization.
The pace of Coke's global soda volume growth slowed to 1% last year from 3% in 2012 as concerns about health and obesity spread. Last month the World Health Organization suggested that individuals limit consumption of added sugars in food and drinks to 6 teaspoons a day--less than the 9 teaspoons in a 12-ounce can of Coke.
Soda volume in Mexico, Coke's second-largest market, have fallen an estimated 5% or more since the country introduced a tax on sugary beverages in January.
The new drag on Coke's U.S. business is diet soda. Diet Coke volume has been down for eight straight years, accelerating the decline in the past three. Diet Coke sales plunged 6.8%, in volume terms last year, according to Beverage Digest. Diet Pepsi sales fell 6.9%, but PepsiCo, with its enormous snacks and foods business, is far less dependent on soda than Coke is.
Mike Esterl
