Bloomberg News
可口可乐公司的全球销量中有近75%来自碳酸饮料。
过
去13年来，美国人喝掉的可口可乐越来越少。如今健怡可乐(Diet Coke)的销量亦在锐减。出于人们对过多糖分摄入和肥胖问题的担忧，全球碳酸饮料的销售增长正在放缓。这种趋势出现在整个行业，但对可口可乐公司(Coca-Cola Co. KO +0.07% )来说，这一情况更显糟糕。该公司在全球近75%的饮料销量来自其碳酸饮料业务。
Bevmark LLC的行业咨询师汤姆·皮尔科(Tom Pirko)说："含糖汽水不是未来行业的发展趋势，这是个已经实际存在的问题。"
不过，这些并非可口可乐公司表示打算大力推广的产品。相反，这家总部位于亚特兰大的公司计划将用于其招牌产品上的投入增加一倍。该公司正在加大广告投放力度并推出新产品，还请来歌手泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)做代言人。去年，公司的碳酸饮料在美国的销量下滑2%，但首席执行长穆泰康(Muhtar Kent)当时曾说，这不正常。他说，即便在美国，碳酸饮料业务也能重回健康增长的轨道──尤其是对一个像可口可乐这样的品牌来说。
今年2月，穆泰康对投资者说：可口可乐依然保持着魔力，我们需要更加努力，在世界的每一个角落续写这一品牌的传奇。穆泰康经常将旗舰产品可口可乐比作公司的"氧气"和"生命线"。
为此，他计划在未来三年将公司的全球广告开销增加10亿美元。该公司去年的花费是33亿美元。在增加的预算中，相当一部分将用于推广雪碧和芬达等碳酸饮料品牌。可口可乐表示，对今年巴西世界杯足球赛的赞助将成为公司有史以来最大的营销活动。
Zuma Press
可口可乐的全球销售网络为人熟知。图为该公司位于亚特兰大总部附近的"可口可乐世界"(World of Coca-Cola)永久展览。
可口可乐正在为其无糖碳酸饮料中添加的人工甜味剂阿斯巴甜进行辩护，并为此引用了超过200份肯定其安全性的研究成果。与此同时，公司计划在更多国家推出使用甜菊植物提取物增加甜味、卡路里含量适中的品牌Coca-Cola Life。去年，该产品已在阿根廷和智利面世。
可口可乐于今年2月敲定了一项合作，将通过Keurig Green Mountain Inc.生产的一种台式可乐机销售碳酸饮料。可口可乐一位前首席执行长曾梦想有一天可口可乐会从人们家中的厨房水龙头里流出来，而这次合作让公司距这一梦想又近了一步。
可口可乐为其发展战略辩护，指出在艰难的经济大环境下，该公司去年全球饮料销量增长2%，以中立货币计算，其总收入增长3%。可口可乐称，在美国和全球的碳酸饮料和非碳酸饮料市场中，该公司继续从百事公司(PepsiCo Inc. PEP +0.42% )及其他竞争对手身上赢得市场份额，公司过去对包括可口可乐在内的核心品牌的投入一直在获得回报。
可口可乐表示，由于正值4月15日财报发布前的静默期，首席执行长穆泰康无法对此置评。美元持续走强造成的外汇损失预计将显著拖累公司的利润。
欧睿信息咨询公司(Euromonitor)表示，即便在可口可乐公司内部，人们对公司战略的怀疑也在与日俱增──去年全球碳酸饮料销量仅增长0.9%，在这种大环境下，可口可乐能否依然能达成其年销量增长3%-4%的目标？
据知情人士透露，在去年下半年的一次公司计划会议中，时任可口可乐美洲业务总裁的史蒂夫·卡希尔兰(Steve Cahillane)称，公司的增长目标不切实际。卡希尔兰曾被认为是穆泰康的潜在继任者之一。几周后，卡希尔兰在一次组织变革中离开了公司。
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的饮料行业分析师约翰·福奇尔(John Faucher)说，可口可乐应该更积极的通过收购来实现业务多元化。可口可乐已经是世界上最大的果汁公司，但在茶饮料、咖啡、奶制品等领域仍是较小的市场参与者，有待发展壮大。福奇尔说："利率这么低，而他们有大量的现金。"
去年12月底，可口可乐的现金和短期投资总计171.2亿美元。一年前，这个数字是134.6亿美元。
行业追踪机构称，美国国内潜在的被收购对象可能包括在茶饮料行业占25%市场份额的Arizona Beverage Co.，以及以产量计算美国最大的能量饮料生产商Monster。不过，Arizona Beverage的拥有者们仍陷于一场旷日持久的法庭纠纷，而Monster的营销手段和饮品成分正遭监管机构的调查，这些都给潜在的收购增添了复杂的因素。
穆泰康曾表示，可口可乐一直在考虑收购，不过该公司对潜在的收购对象只字不提。
Bloomberg News
可口可乐计划在未来三年将全球广告支出增加10亿美元。图为缅甸一家可口可乐灌装工厂。
可口可乐公司仍有为数众多的支持者，包括长期以来一直是该公司最大股东的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)。伯克希尔-哈撒韦首席执行长沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在一封邮件中写道："我对可口可乐公司的业务战略100%的认同，我认为穆泰康是可口可乐理想的首席执行长。"
可口可乐旗下已拥有11个零售额均超过10亿美元的非碳酸饮料品牌，以及一个无可匹敌的销售网络。除去古巴和朝鲜，该公司的业务遍及全球各国。在欧亚大陆和非洲，公司去年饮料销量增长7%。
Jensen Quality Growth Fund的一位投资组合经理柯特·哈弗纳尔(Kurt Havnaer)说："我们是这样看的，这更大程度上是一个有关新兴市场和发展中市场的案例"。这家美国共同基金拥有价值约1.5亿美元的可口可乐公司股票。
不过，投资者对可口可乐公司的兴趣已在降温。该公司股票在过去一年下跌2.7%，而同期标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)则上涨21%。近日，全球最大的啤酒生产商、旗下拥有百威啤酒(Budweiser)品牌的百威英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev NV)取代可口可乐，成为市值最大的饮料公司。
由于人们对健康问题和有关肥胖的担忧在持续发酵，可口可乐全球碳酸饮料的销量增速已从2012年的3%下滑至去年的1%。上个月，世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)建议人们每天从食品和饮料中摄入的糖分应不超过6茶匙──而一听12盎司可口可乐中的含糖量已达9茶匙。
墨西哥于今年1月份起实行一项针对含糖饮料的征税，导致碳酸饮料在墨西哥的销量据估计已至少下滑5%。墨西哥是可口可乐公司在全球的第二大市场。
健怡可乐对该公司的美国业务构成了新的拖累。该产品销量已连续八年下滑，并在最近三年呈加速态势。据《饮料文摘》(Beverage Digest)统计，健怡可乐去年销量下滑6.8%。轻怡百事可乐(Diet Pepsi)的销量也下降了6.9%，但由于同时拥有庞大的快餐和食品业务，百事公司对碳酸饮料的依赖程度比可口可乐要低得多。
Mike Esterl
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
For 13 years running, Americans have been drinking less Coke. Now Diet Coke sales are falling off a cliff. Globally, sales growth of soda is slowing amid concerns about sugar intake and obesity.
The trends are industrywide, but it is especially bad news for Coca-Cola Co., a company that derives almost 75% of its global sales volume from carbonated soft drinks.
'Sugar water with bubbles is not the future of the world. There's an existential issue,' said Tom Pirko, an industry consultant at Bevmark LLC.
A growing number of industry analysts suggest Coca-Cola should spend less to advertise cola and more to diversify aggressively through acquisitions of companies, like energy-drink maker Monster Beverage Corp. Sales of Coke's nonsodas, including Minute Maid juice, Dasani water and Powerade sports drinks, rose 5% last year by volume.
But that isn't what Coke says it has in store. Instead, the Atlanta-based company plans to double down on its namesake brand. The company is boosting advertising, introducing new products, and using singer Taylor Swift as a pitchwoman. Chief Executive Muhtar Kent has said that last year, when Coke's U.S. soda volume dropped 2%, was an anomaly. Soda can return to healthy growth, even in the U.S., especially if it is a brand name like Coke, he said.
'Coca-Cola remains magical. We need to work even harder to enhance the romance of the brand in every corner of the world,' Mr. Kent told investors in February. He regularly refers to flagship Coke as the company's 'oxygen' and 'lifeblood.'
For starters, he plans to increase global advertising by $1 billion over the next three years. The company spent $3.3 billion last year. Much of the increase will be devoted to soda, including the Sprite and Fanta brands. Coke says its sponsorship of this year's World Cup soccer tournament in Brazil will be the company's largest marketing campaign ever.
Coke is defending aspartame, the main artificial sweetener in diet soda, citing more than 200 studies affirming its safety. At the same time, it plans to roll out Coca-Cola Life, a moderate-calorie version sweetened with stevia plant extract, across more countries, after releasing the drink in Argentina and Chile last year.
Coke in February struck a deal to sell soda through Keurig Green Mountain Inc.'s countertop machines, inching closer to a former executive's dream that Coke one day would stream from kitchen taps.
The company defends its course, noting that its global beverage volume rose 2% last year and revenue increased 3%, in currency-neutral terms, despite tough economic conditions. Coke says it has continued to win market share in the U.S. and globally from PepsiCo Inc. and other rivals in soda and noncarbonated beverages. Past investments in its core brands, including Coke, consistently have paid off, it says.
Coke said Mr. Kent wasn't available for comment, citing the quiet period ahead of its earning report on April 15. Foreign-exchange losses from a strengthening dollar are expected to place a significant drag on profit this year.
Skepticism is growing--even inside the company--about whether Coke can still meet its target for 3% to 4% annual volume growth in a world in which soda volume rose only 0.9% last year, according to Euromonitor.
At a global planning meeting late last year, Steve Cahillane, who then was president of Coca-Cola Americas, said growth targets were unrealistic, according to people familiar with the matter. He had been viewed as a potential successor to Mr. Kent. A few weeks later, Mr. Cahillane left the company in an organizational shake-up.
John Faucher, a beverage analyst at J.P. Morgan, said Coke should diversify more aggressively through acquisitions. Coke already is the world's biggest juice company but could bulk up in areas like tea, coffee and dairy, where it is a much smaller player. 'Interest rates are low and they have a ton of cash,' Mr. Faucher said.
Coke's cash and short-term investments totaled $17.12 billion at the end of December, up from $13.46 billion a year earlier.
Industry trackers say potential U.S. candidates could include Arizona Beverage Co., with an estimated market share of 25% in ready-to drink teas, and Monster, the country's biggest energy drink maker by volume. But Arizona's owners are locked in a protracted court dispute, and Monster's marketing and ingredients are being scrutinized by regulators, complicating any deals.
Mr. Kent has said that Coke is always looking at acquisitions, but the company declines to comment on any possible targets.
Coke still has plenty of supporters, including Berkshire Hathaway Inc., long the beverage maker's largest shareholder. 'I'm 100% in accord with Coca-Cola's business strategy and regard Muhtar Kent as the ideal CEO for Coca-Cola,' Berkshire Chairman Warren Buffett said by email.
Coke already has 11 nonsoda brands with more than $1 billion each in retail sales and an unrivaled distribution network, and operates in every country except Cuba and North Korea. In Eurasia and Africa, Coke's beverage volume rose 7% last year.
'This is more of an emerging-markets and developing-markets story; that's the way we look at it,' said Kurt Havnaer, a portfolio manager at Jensen Quality Growth Fund. The U.S. mutual fund owns about $150 million in Coke shares.
Still, investors have cooled on Coke. The company's share price has fallen 2.7% over the past year, while the S&P 500 has climbed 21%. Last week, Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the world's largest brewer, supplanted Coke as the biggest beverage company by stock-market capitalization.
The pace of Coke's global soda volume growth slowed to 1% last year from 3% in 2012 as concerns about health and obesity spread. Last month the World Health Organization suggested that individuals limit consumption of added sugars in food and drinks to 6 teaspoons a day--less than the 9 teaspoons in a 12-ounce can of Coke.
Soda volume in Mexico, Coke's second-largest market, have fallen an estimated 5% or more since the country introduced a tax on sugary beverages in January.
The new drag on Coke's U.S. business is diet soda. Diet Coke volume has been down for eight straight years, accelerating the decline in the past three. Diet Coke sales plunged 6.8%, in volume terms last year, according to Beverage Digest. Diet Pepsi sales fell 6.9%, but PepsiCo, with its enormous snacks and foods business, is far less dependent on soda than Coke is.
Mike Esterl
The trends are industrywide, but it is especially bad news for Coca-Cola Co., a company that derives almost 75% of its global sales volume from carbonated soft drinks.
'Sugar water with bubbles is not the future of the world. There's an existential issue,' said Tom Pirko, an industry consultant at Bevmark LLC.
A growing number of industry analysts suggest Coca-Cola should spend less to advertise cola and more to diversify aggressively through acquisitions of companies, like energy-drink maker Monster Beverage Corp. Sales of Coke's nonsodas, including Minute Maid juice, Dasani water and Powerade sports drinks, rose 5% last year by volume.
But that isn't what Coke says it has in store. Instead, the Atlanta-based company plans to double down on its namesake brand. The company is boosting advertising, introducing new products, and using singer Taylor Swift as a pitchwoman. Chief Executive Muhtar Kent has said that last year, when Coke's U.S. soda volume dropped 2%, was an anomaly. Soda can return to healthy growth, even in the U.S., especially if it is a brand name like Coke, he said.
'Coca-Cola remains magical. We need to work even harder to enhance the romance of the brand in every corner of the world,' Mr. Kent told investors in February. He regularly refers to flagship Coke as the company's 'oxygen' and 'lifeblood.'
For starters, he plans to increase global advertising by $1 billion over the next three years. The company spent $3.3 billion last year. Much of the increase will be devoted to soda, including the Sprite and Fanta brands. Coke says its sponsorship of this year's World Cup soccer tournament in Brazil will be the company's largest marketing campaign ever.
Coke is defending aspartame, the main artificial sweetener in diet soda, citing more than 200 studies affirming its safety. At the same time, it plans to roll out Coca-Cola Life, a moderate-calorie version sweetened with stevia plant extract, across more countries, after releasing the drink in Argentina and Chile last year.
Coke in February struck a deal to sell soda through Keurig Green Mountain Inc.'s countertop machines, inching closer to a former executive's dream that Coke one day would stream from kitchen taps.
The company defends its course, noting that its global beverage volume rose 2% last year and revenue increased 3%, in currency-neutral terms, despite tough economic conditions. Coke says it has continued to win market share in the U.S. and globally from PepsiCo Inc. and other rivals in soda and noncarbonated beverages. Past investments in its core brands, including Coke, consistently have paid off, it says.
Coke said Mr. Kent wasn't available for comment, citing the quiet period ahead of its earning report on April 15. Foreign-exchange losses from a strengthening dollar are expected to place a significant drag on profit this year.
Skepticism is growing--even inside the company--about whether Coke can still meet its target for 3% to 4% annual volume growth in a world in which soda volume rose only 0.9% last year, according to Euromonitor.
At a global planning meeting late last year, Steve Cahillane, who then was president of Coca-Cola Americas, said growth targets were unrealistic, according to people familiar with the matter. He had been viewed as a potential successor to Mr. Kent. A few weeks later, Mr. Cahillane left the company in an organizational shake-up.
John Faucher, a beverage analyst at J.P. Morgan, said Coke should diversify more aggressively through acquisitions. Coke already is the world's biggest juice company but could bulk up in areas like tea, coffee and dairy, where it is a much smaller player. 'Interest rates are low and they have a ton of cash,' Mr. Faucher said.
Coke's cash and short-term investments totaled $17.12 billion at the end of December, up from $13.46 billion a year earlier.
Industry trackers say potential U.S. candidates could include Arizona Beverage Co., with an estimated market share of 25% in ready-to drink teas, and Monster, the country's biggest energy drink maker by volume. But Arizona's owners are locked in a protracted court dispute, and Monster's marketing and ingredients are being scrutinized by regulators, complicating any deals.
Mr. Kent has said that Coke is always looking at acquisitions, but the company declines to comment on any possible targets.
Coke still has plenty of supporters, including Berkshire Hathaway Inc., long the beverage maker's largest shareholder. 'I'm 100% in accord with Coca-Cola's business strategy and regard Muhtar Kent as the ideal CEO for Coca-Cola,' Berkshire Chairman Warren Buffett said by email.
Coke already has 11 nonsoda brands with more than $1 billion each in retail sales and an unrivaled distribution network, and operates in every country except Cuba and North Korea. In Eurasia and Africa, Coke's beverage volume rose 7% last year.
'This is more of an emerging-markets and developing-markets story; that's the way we look at it,' said Kurt Havnaer, a portfolio manager at Jensen Quality Growth Fund. The U.S. mutual fund owns about $150 million in Coke shares.
Still, investors have cooled on Coke. The company's share price has fallen 2.7% over the past year, while the S&P 500 has climbed 21%. Last week, Budweiser maker Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the world's largest brewer, supplanted Coke as the biggest beverage company by stock-market capitalization.
The pace of Coke's global soda volume growth slowed to 1% last year from 3% in 2012 as concerns about health and obesity spread. Last month the World Health Organization suggested that individuals limit consumption of added sugars in food and drinks to 6 teaspoons a day--less than the 9 teaspoons in a 12-ounce can of Coke.
Soda volume in Mexico, Coke's second-largest market, have fallen an estimated 5% or more since the country introduced a tax on sugary beverages in January.
The new drag on Coke's U.S. business is diet soda. Diet Coke volume has been down for eight straight years, accelerating the decline in the past three. Diet Coke sales plunged 6.8%, in volume terms last year, according to Beverage Digest. Diet Pepsi sales fell 6.9%, but PepsiCo, with its enormous snacks and foods business, is far less dependent on soda than Coke is.
Mike Esterl
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