身为“矮子”华金•古兹曼(Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman)是什么感觉？去年，《福布斯》(Forbes)杂志将他列为全球第701位富豪。但与其他亿万富翁不同，古兹曼没法通过坐游艇或出入豪华餐厅来享受自己的财富。作为墨西哥的头号毒枭，他受到该国军方的追捕，不得不藏匿于一个6万平方公里的山区。
古兹曼及其他墨西哥毒贩的命运，不仅是一个犯罪故事，还具有全球政治影响。过去仅被归为“新兴市场”的国家，正被重新归为“崛起中的大国”。巴西、印度、中国和俄罗斯被冠以著名的“金砖四国”(Bric)称号，参与着全球政治。
墨西哥拥有逾1.12亿人口，人均收入是中国的两倍以上，在进入美国市场方面拥有得天独厚的优势，因此本应成为“崛起中的大国”这一集团的一份子。但毒品问题耽误了它的前途。
数据令人惊骇。去年，超过6500人在墨西哥的毒品战争中丧生。相比之下，同期丧生于阿富汗冲突的平民人数约为2400人。仅在今年头10天，与毒品相关的暴力事件就夺走了238名墨西哥人的性命。2008年末，美国五角大楼一份研究报告令墨西哥声名狼藉，报告称，该国正在沦为一个“失败国家”。自那以来，毒品暴力的势头有增无减。
幸好，只要在墨西哥呆上5分钟，你就会认识到，把该国与一个真正的失败国家（如阿富汗）相提并论是可笑的。首都墨西哥城是一座熙熙攘攘、相当富有的大城市。毒品暴力固然可怕，但基本上不具有会让一个国家真正陷入恐慌的随机性。约90%的受害者据称是交战中的贩毒集团的成员。多数暴力事件局限于三个相对较小的地区，其中最猖獗的是不幸的边境城市华雷斯(Ciudad Juarez)——去年，那里有超过2500人死于非命。
但毒品战争还是令墨西哥受害不浅。华雷斯其实并非某个尘土飞扬的沙漠小镇，而是一个面向美国市场的制造业重地。在墨西哥各地，本土商人担心遭到绑架勒索，外国投资者则迟疑不决。
如果不受其它问题的困扰，墨西哥也许可以更好地应对毒品问题。但在2009年，该国遭遇了一场经济灾难。在中国和印度实现强劲增长、巴西经济仅微幅下滑之际，墨西哥经济却遭受重创，萎缩了近7%。
去年发生的所有事情似乎都对墨西哥不利。接受该国80%出口的美国陷入衰退，油价大跌，猪流感爆发令旅游业损失惨重，似乎就差爆发蝗灾了。
但即便不再背运，墨西哥仍面临严重的经济问题。中国的制造业奇迹帮助了作为大宗商品主要出口国的巴西，却令墨西哥头疼——该国经济战略是以面向美国市场制造产品为本的。
经济表现不佳伴随着外交弱势。作为近来颇有影响力的20国集团(G20)的成员国，墨西哥本应处于有利地位，但外界认定巴西为拉美的非正式领袖。墨西哥总统费利佩•卡尔德龙(Felipe Calderon)虽然认真努力，但缺乏巴西总统路易斯•伊纳西奥•卢拉•达•席尔瓦(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva)的魅力和知名度。在世界贸易谈判和全球气候变化谈判中，巴西的声音举足轻重，而墨西哥的看法则很少被关注。
墨西哥如何才能扭转局面？该国将于今年12月主办下一届联合国气候峰会，但那可能是一盏“金杯毒酒”。墨西哥的一些公共知识分子已开始主张，卡尔德龙应与贩毒团伙私下和解，以恢复社会安宁。这肯定是错误的。把对国内部分地区的控制权永久性地让与犯罪分子——并允许他们在国内其他地区继续不受干扰地收买影响力和权力——不可能构成稳定的基础。更好的选择是警务改革、社会服务计划和加强与美国的情报合作。
不过，除了与非法的贩毒卡特尔继续斗争以外，墨西哥政府也需要整治合法的商业卡特尔。说来奇怪，目前持有“世界首富”这一非官方头衔的是墨西哥人卡洛斯•斯利姆(Carlos Slim)，这不是什么好兆头。斯利姆是一位天才的生意人，建立了一个覆盖全拉美的电信帝国。但他的巨额财富也证明了墨西哥电信市场——他是在那里发迹的——竞争不足。墨西哥国内的一种普遍共识是，如果政府允许各行各业——从能源、建筑到零售——引入更多竞争，整个国家将受益匪浅。
但墨西哥经济的低效率有一个好处。它意味着该国仍拥有大量未被开发的资源。2010年是墨西哥独立200周年和墨西哥革命100周年，在这一年释放潜力，再合适不过了。
译者/章晴
How does it feel to be Joaquin “El Chapo” (Shorty) Guzman? Last year Forbes magazine listed him as the 701st-richest man in the world. But unlike other billionaires, Mr Guzman cannot enjoy his fortune by spending time on yachts or in fancy restaurants. As Mexico’s leading drugs baron, he has the country’s army on his tail – and so has to hide out in a mountainous region of 60,000 square kilometres.
The fate of Mr Guzman and the other Mexican drugs criminals is more than just a crime story. It has global political ramifications. Countries that were once classified as mere “emerging markets” are now being re-classified as “rising powers”. Brazil, India and China – together with Russia – have been famously tagged as the “Brics”, and are now global political players.
With a population of more than 112m people, a per capita income that is more than double that of China and privileged access to the US market, Mexico should be in this group of rising powers. But the drugs problem is blighting its future.
The figures are horrifying. Last year, the death toll in Mexico’s drugs war was more than 6,500. By comparison, over the same period the conflict in Afghanistan claimed the lives of some 2,400 civilians. Drug-related violence killed 238 Mexicans in the first 10 days of this year alone. In late 2008, a Pentagon study notoriously suggested that Mexico was on its way to becoming a “failed state”. Since then drugs violence has only intensified.
Fortunately, you need only spend five minutes in the country to realise that any comparison between Mexico and a truly failing state, such as Afghanistan, is silly. Mexico City, the capital, is a vast, bustling and fairly wealthy city. The drugs violence is dreadful – but it largely lacks the random quality that truly terrorises a country. About 90 per cent of victims are said to be members of warring drugs cartels. Most violence is confined to three relatively small regions – above all, the benighted border city of Ciudad Juarez, where more than 2,500 people were murdered last year.
But the drugs war is still severely damaging Mexico. Ciudad Juarez is not some dusty, desert outpost – it is a major base for manufacturers, aiming at the US market. Across Mexico, local businessmen worry about extortion and kidnapping – while foreign investors hesitate.
Mexico might be able to cope better with the drugs issue if it were not also suffering from other ailments. But 2009 was an economic disaster for the country. While China and India grew strongly and Brazil barely lost ground, the Mexican economy tanked, shrinking by almost 7 per cent.
Everything seemed to conspire against the country last year. The US, which takes 80 per cent of its exports, was in recession. The oil price slumped. An outbreak of swine flu devastated tourism. All that seemed to be missing was a plague of locusts.
But even when Mexico’s run of bad luck ends it will still face serious economic problems. China’s manufacturing miracle has helped Brazil, which is a major exporter of commodities, but it has been a big headache for Mexico – which has based its economic strategy around manufacturing for the US market.
Economic underperformance has been matched by diplomatic underperformance. As a member of the newly influential G20 group of leading economies, the Mexicans should be well placed. Instead, Brazil has been anointed as the unofficial leader of Latin America. Felipe Calderón, Mexico’s president, is serious and hard-working, but he lacks the charisma and high profile of Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Brazil’s voice matters a lot in world trade talks and in global climate change negotiations, while Mexico’s views barely feature.
What can Mexico do to turn this situation around? The country will host the next United Nations climate summit in December – although that might prove to be something of a poisoned chalice. Some public intellectuals in Mexico are beginning to argue that Mr Calderón should make a quiet accommodation with the drugs gangs, to restore social peace. That would surely be a mistake. A situation in which criminals are permanently ceded control of parts of the country – and can continue to buy influence and power unmolested in the rest of the nation – cannot be a basis for stability. Police reform, social programmes and improved intelligence co-operation with the US are better options.
But as well as battling on in the struggle against the illegal drugs cartels, the Mexican government needs to take on the legal business cartels. Oddly enough, it is not a good sign that the current holder of the unofficial title of the “world’s richest man” is a Mexican – Carlos Slim. Mr Slim is a gifted businessmen who has built up a telecommunications empire across Latin America. But his vast wealth testifies to the uncompetitive nature of the Mexican telecoms market in which he built his initial fortune. It is widely acknowledged in Mexico that the country would make huge gains if it allowed more competition in everything from energy to construction and retailing.
There is, however, one positive side to the inefficiency of the Mexican economy. It means that the country still has huge untapped resources. The year 2010 – which marks the 200th anniversary of Mexican independence and the 100th anniversary of the Mexican revolution – would be a fitting year in which to unleash that potential.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031374
没有评论:
发表评论