2010年11月4日

中国专家评美国中期选举 China Responds to U.S. Election

着美国中期选举临近尾声,中国密切关注。主要媒体和博客网站都开设了有关此次选举的专题,关注事件进展,同时政论人士和平民对此的反响也呈现出众多观点的交织碰撞。热点话题包括此次选举可能对美中关系有何影响、经济问题、美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)支持率下滑以及"茶党"现象。以下是我们选取的一些中国专家就美国中期选举的评论:

Xinhua/ZUMApress.com
关于美国中期选举,中国 民讨论最多的话题之一是奥巴马支持率的下降。
此次美国中期选举后,中美关系在短期内发生波折甚至倒退的可能性并非不存在,但从长远来看,随着中国国力的不断增强,中美关系改善才是历史潮流,这是一次选举无法改变的。在美国中期选举中,内政问题、尤其是经济问题是选民投票的主要依据。奥巴马政府在处理国内问题上的不力,拖累了很多与他持同样立场的民主党议员。拿出与现政府不同的政策,才更有希望赢得选举,正因如此,一些反华声音开始越叫越响。奥巴马政府在对华外交上总体上还是希望稳定中美关系大局的,如果更多持反华态度的议员上台,对未来奥巴马政府的对华政策必然有所牵制。

─ 沈丁立 复旦大学国际问题研究院常务副院长、美国研究中心主任
《钱江晚报》,11月2日


茶党)就是美国最近这几年以来两极分化政治现象的一个产物,这几年来共和党和民主党两极分化,两级对立,所以"茶党"现象的出现,就是(人们)已经厌倦的这两党,不顾国家利益……而且这种极化现象到了这个程度,两党恶斗不止,这次即使共和党占据了众议院的多数。有人预测,两年之后可能又会翻盘,因为老百姓现在已经非常焦虑,不知道选谁好。

─ 袁鹏 中国现代国际关系研究院美国所所长
中国中央电视台,11月2日


美国国民除了极度关注美国政府要将政府规模扩大到多大以外,更多的人在关注经济走势,这个比例达到了40%以上。美国家里的各种改革和中期选举表面看与中国的关联不大,但是,实际上美国既然有将近一半的人在关心经济,而美国很多的经济障碍在美国有些政客眼里都是跟中国有关,所以,很多美国人尤其是美国的企业,都在盯着中国经济走势。可以预测的是,中美今后在经贸方面会出现长期的摩擦斗争,这种摩擦斗争可能体现在人民币汇率上、反倾销上、乃至体现在反补贴和知识产权上,由于经济摩擦,两国交往会进一步受到影响。

─ 孙哲 清华大学中美关系研究中心主任
《每日经济新闻》,11月3日


William Sima

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)
 
 
As the U.S. mid-term elections draw to a close, China is watching closely. While major media and blogging sites have set up election chaser columns to monitor events as they unfold, responses from political commentators and citizens alike present a cross-section of opinions. Hot topics include potential effects of the election on the U.S.-China relationship, the economy, collapsing support for President Barack Obama and the 'Tea Party' phenomenon. Some selected comments on the U.S. election by Chinese experts:

The possibility exists that China-U.S. relations could suffer short-term setbacksor even regressions after these elections. But in the long term, as China becomes an increasingly stronger power, improvement in China-U.S. relations will prove to be the overall historical trend. This is something a single election can't change⠦In the American mid-terms, internal political problems, particularly economic ones, are what voters are most concerned about. The Obama government's inability to deal with internal problems has become a burden to other Democrats who share his views. The best hope for winning elections is to come up with different policies from the incumbent government, and this is precisely why we're seeing anti-Chinese sentiment starting to ring out⠦The Obama administration still hopes to stabilize relations with China, but if more anti-Chinese representatives are voted in, it will inevitably stifle the administration's China policy in the future. || -Shen Dingli, associate dean, Fudan University Institute of International Studies, Shanghai. Interviewed by Zhejiang's Qianjiang Evening News, Nov. 2

[The Tea Party] is the product of polarization in American politicsover the last several years. Over these years the Republican and Democratic parties have become polarized and highly antagonistic toward each other, so the Tea Party phenomenon has appeared. [People] are already fed up with the two parties' lack of attention to national interest⠦Polarization has reached an extent where the two parties are ferociously attacking each other, and this time that's meant that the Republicans have taken the most seats in the House of Representatives. There are forecasts that suggest this could reverse again in the next two years, because voters are extremely apprehensive and don't know who they should vote for. || -Yuan Peng, head of American Studies department, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. Interviewed by CCTV, Nov. 2

While many Americans are paying attention to the ever-increasing role of the government,more than 40% are more concerned about the future of the economy. At first glance, it may appear that various American domestic reformsâ 'and the mid-term electionsâ 'don't have much effect on China. However, almost half of Americans are now most concerned about the economy, and some American politicians see economic problems as being related to China. Therefore many Americans, especially American industries, are closely watching economic trends in China. From now on we can expect long-term economic friction and conflict between China and America, and this friction could in turn effect (renminbi) exchange rates, anti-dumping, even countervailing measures and intellectual property rights. Economic issues are going to have an even greater influence on U.S.-China relations in general. || -Sun Zhe, director of Tsinghua University Center for U.S.-China Relations. Interviewed by National Business Daily, Nov. 3

William Sima
 

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