在美国周二中期选举前的政治辩论中，奥巴马政府的医疗改革是一个核心议题。但对于一些美国企业而言，努力尝试将全民医保覆盖范围延伸至其它地方——比如中国——可能会更有成效。
麦肯锡(McKinsey & Co)的咨询顾问写道，去年中国政府公布的措施将“刺激中国医疗保健市场，为私人支付方、提供方和IT厂商创造机会”。此外他们还认为，医疗保健行业甚至可能拥有一个罕见的特性：这一领域的国内消费增长快于GDP。
苏慕佳(Claudia Süssmuth-Dyckerhoff)和王锦（音译）在《麦肯锡季刊》(McKinsey Quarterly)发表的一篇文章中估计，医疗保健目前约占中国GDP的5%。作者补充道——随着政府向更多民众提供保险，建造医院为他们治病：
“如果中国的医疗保健支出只是与预测的GDP增幅保持一致，那么到2018年，相关支出将增至4800亿美元。不过我们相信，由于保险覆盖更完善，高质量的保健护理更容易获得，以及老龄化、城市化和生活方式转变导致的需求上升，医疗保健开支的增长速度可能会快于GDP。如果到2018年，医疗保健开支达到GDP的6.5%，那么市场规模可能会再增加1500亿美元。”
两位咨询顾问提出，私人保险可能会变得更便宜、更容易获得，到2020年将形成一个规模达900亿美元的市场；同时，监管改革将使得私人医院更容易提供得到公共资金资助的医疗保健服务。他们还指出，更好的医疗保健需要更好的信息技术。微软(Microsoft)上周在中国推出个人健康管理软件，就突出体现了这一点。这一叫做HealthVault的技术已经在另外4个国家中使用，微软将通过本地合作伙伴软通动力(iSoftStone)在中国患者中推广。
但中国医疗保健行业的机会不止于此。据英国《金融时报》上月报道，中国将超越德国成为世界第三大制药市场——明年增长率将达25%至27%，远高于新兴市场15%至17%的平均增长率。
文章继续指出：
“与印度、巴西和泰国等其他一些发展中国家不同，对于许多受到专利保护的新药，中国鼓励按照较高的西方水平价格出售。分析师认为，此举将促进技术转让，在长期内增强国内生产商的实力。”
事实上，制药公司也希望进入非处方药市场——非处方产品的好处在于对政府改革的依赖度低。法国的赛诺菲-安万特(Sanofi-Aventis)将以5.2亿美元收购美华太阳石公司(BMP Sunstone)，后者的咳嗽药等产品已在中国零售市场站稳脚跟。
文章的要点很简单：中国民众正变得更富有；而精明的跨国公司现在能够帮助他们变得更健康。
译者/李裕
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035335
The Obama administration’s health care reforms have been a central part of the US political debate ahead of midterm elections on Tuesday. But for some US businesses it could be more productive to focus on an attempt to universalise medical coverage elsewhere - in China.
Government measures announced last year will “stimulate China’s health care market and create opportunities for private payers, providers, and IT vendors,” write consultants from McKinsey & Co. What’s more, they suggest that the health care industry might have that rare quality: an area of domestic consumption that grows faster that GDP.
In an article in McKinsey Quarterly, Claudia Süssmuth-Dyckerhoff and Jin Wang estimate that health care currently represents about 5 per cent of China’s GDP. With the government extending insurance to more citizens and building the hospitals to treat them, the authors add:
If China’s health care spending simply keeps pace with projected GDP growth, it will increase to $480 billion by 2018. We, however, believe that it is likely to rise faster than GDP, as a result of better insurance coverage, improved access to high-quality care, and rising demand (tied to aging, urbanization, and lifestyle shifts). If health care spending hits 6.5 percent of GDP by 2018, the market could increase by an additional $150 billion.
The consultants argue that private insurance could become cheaper and more accessible, creating a $90bn market by 2020, and that regulatory reforms are making it easier for private hospitals to provide publicly-funded care. And they note that better health care needs better IT - a point highlighted last week when Microsoft offered its personal health management software in China. The HealthVault technology, which is already available in four other countries, will be available to Chinese patients through local partner iSoftStone.
But the opportunities for health care in China don’t stop there. The FT reported last month that the country is set to overtake Germany to become the world’s third-biggest pharmaceutical market - with growth of 25-27 per cent next year, compared to an emerging market average of 15-17 per cent.
The story went on to note that:
China - unlike some other developing countries including India, Brazil and Thailand - has encouraged higher western-level prices on many new patent-protected drugs, in a move that analysts think will foster technology transfer and strengthen domestic producers in the longer term.
Indeed, pharma companies want to go into the non-prescription market too: France’s Sanofi-Aventis is paying $520m for BMP Sunstone, whose cough medicines and other products are established in China’s retail markets. Such over-the-counter products have the benefit of being less dependent on government reforms.
The point is simple: Chinese citizens are getting wealthier; now smart multinationals can help them get healthier.
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