Zuma Press
周三，北京人民大会堂，中共十八大预备会议上举手表决的场景。为期一周的十八大将产生新的领导人和新一届政治局常委会。
中
共十八大周四开幕，开启了10年一次的权力过渡，一个亟待解决的问题随之出现：新一届领导人是否愿意并且能够从根本上彻底改革僵化的政治体制和疲态尽显的经济增长模式？中国是否志在进行有意义的改革？有关这个问题的种种迹象最早也要到为期一周的十八大下周四进入高潮时才能揭晓。届时，新一届政治局常委（中国最高领导机构）将按照职位高低陆续登上北京人民大会堂的一个深红色讲台集体亮相。
互动图：图解中共18大与领导层调整
中共十八大周四上午在北京人民大会堂开幕，即将卸任的中国国家主席、党总书记胡锦涛发表讲话，承认中共面临众多挑战。他说，全党必须牢记人民对我们的信任和期待，这显然是指公众对官员腐败和发展不平衡越来越大的担忧。他还说，发展不平衡、不协调、不可持续仍是突出问题。
中国国有电视台给了出席会议的江泽民很长时间的镜头，表明前一代领导人在新领导集体的选拔上仍然具有影响力。江泽民在1989年至2002年期间担任党总书记。
新一届政治局常委的人数和构成可谓讳莫如深，常委人选是由即将离任和已经退休的领导人在幕后反复博弈最终敲定的。但中共党内人士说，在过去几周内已经达成的一个共识是，将由九个席位构成的常委会缩减了两人，其中包括一位负责国内政法委工作的常委。
Greg Baker/Associated Press
图片：回首历次中共全国代表大会
另一个强烈信号将是过往政绩中力推政治改革的两位候选人是否均能进入新一届政治局常委会：一位是广东省委书记汪洋，另一位是中组部部长李源潮。
现年59岁的习近平在上任之际恰逢中共面临一系列挑战，其中包括中国经济增速放缓，收入差距日益扩大导致的社会动荡以及一个日益有能力通过社交媒体组织政治对立活动的城市年轻人群。
今年三季度中国经济同比增速放缓至7.4%，是自金融危机以来最慢的增速。远低于过去10年高达两位数的增长速度。更糟糕的是，经济产出的构成表明中国经济日渐失衡，2011年投资在总产出中的占比接近50%，而家庭消费在其中的占比仅为35%。
Associated Press
周三，一名武警在北京天安门广场站岗。
政治分析人士说，中国已经达成了一个广泛共识，即如果不进行这样的改革，中国经济可能停滞，其进入发达国家行列的雄心将会受挫，社会紧张形势可能加剧，并有可能演变成威胁政权的暴力行动。
在国际上，中国因领土争端而与多个邻国关系越来越紧张。与此同时，美国在亚洲加强了防务联系，并重新确认了其在亚洲的影响力，同时在中国同朝鲜、伊朗和叙利亚的关系上向北京施压。
中国新的领导层形成之时，美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)刚刚获得连任。能否与美国这个关键出口市场和技术来源保持稳定的关系、以及有没有决心发展与中国崛起为全球经济大国相匹配的军事力量，也将成为外界评价他们的标准。中国在成为全球经济大国之后，从拉丁美洲到中东地区都有利益需要保护。
中共之前和平有序的权力交接只有过一次，即2002年。今年权力的交接计划则因薄熙来丑闻的爆发而早早陷入混乱。这位昔日政坛野心家曾经是最有可能进入新一届政治局常委会的人选之一。
薄熙来的妻子在今年8月被判谋杀一位英国商人，现在他本人也面临着刑事指控。另一位党内新秀令计划在今年3月卷入丑闻：当时他的儿子在北京驾驶一辆法拉利高速行驶撞车身亡，之后令计划企图掩盖这起事故。
上个月，即将离任的国务院总理温家宝的家人发表一份罕见声明，否认一篇说他们积累的财富达27亿美元的报道。即便是在党内，现在也有越来越高的呼声要求开展大刀阔斧的经济改革（特别是打破国有企业垄断）和政治改革，以解决最近这些丑闻背后的核心问题：官员滥用权力，很多党的领导人积聚了巨额财富。
这意味着下周即将走上前台的新一届领导人将面临国内外前所未有的审视，看他们是否愿意直面过去10年胡锦涛执政时期基本被忽略的那些问题。胡锦涛现任国家主席和党总书记，即将离任。
历史学家章立凡说，党内上下有一种共识，不能再像以前那样执政，必须改革；但在实践中，习近平要挑战妨碍改革的利益集团，则必须得到其他领导人的强力支持。章立凡的父亲同习近平的父亲曾是亲密盟友。
确保能进入新一届常委会的只有两位不会马上退休的现任常委：习近平和国务院副总理李克强。李克强学过法律和经济专业，被普遍认为将接任负责经济管理的总理一职。
其他成员则在过去几个月由即将离任的领导人和十来位已经退休的党内"元老"挑选。在这一过程中，每一位领导人和元老都努力确保亲信得到提拔，以保护他们在退休期间的私人利益和政治影响。
党内人士说，缩减政治局常委会人数的提议是出于党内高层的一种担忧：自从2002年江泽民辞去党总书记一职、常委会从七人扩大到九人以来，这个机构已经变得过于臃肿、寡断。
他们的其他担忧还有：过去五年的国内安全首脑周永康作为政法委书记积累了过大的权力。政法委掌管着公安、检察院、法院和情报机关。
为中共领导层提供建议的一名学者说，政治局常委会意识到，他们不希望在做决策的时候，其中有人带着枪。
这个提议的另一个结果是，瘦身之后的政治局常委会仅有五个空缺席位。政治局常委的数量多年来几经增减，但习惯上一直是奇数。
最近几天，北京的政治观察人士和党内人士暗示，落选者中可能包括两名因尝试有限的政治改革而闻名的候选人。
广东省委书记汪洋曾经尝试取消对非政府组织的限制，去年，他与抗议政府统治的村民经过谈判达成解决方案，并因此受到了好评。
外界认为，汪洋是胡锦涛和温家宝青睐的候选人，但受到其他领导人反对。有些人认为他的改革方式太过激进，有些人则认为他太年轻，应等到2017年再晋升常委。汪洋今年57岁。
更加出人意料的是，最近几周，反对中央组织部长李源潮进入常委会的声音也在增强。李源潮2002年曾在哈佛大学肯尼迪政治学院(Harvard's Kennedy School of Government)学习，并曾指导实施了一些旨在实行更大党内民主的试点计划。
根据维基解密(WikiLeaks)公布的一份美国外交电文，李源潮2007年曾告诉美国外交官，二、三十年之后，中国的政治局和政治局常委会可能会实行竞争性选举。
今年7月，李源潮邀请美国和欧洲的商界高管为中国国企领导举办讲座，告诉他们要专注于商业而不是政治。
前佛罗里达州议员韦克斯勒(Robert Wexler)最近几年见过李源潮。他说，李源潮在政治上的开放态度让他印象深刻。一次晚宴之后，他们在没有明显安保人员的情况下沿着南京的大街散步，与当地市民寒暄和互动。
他说，与民众一起散步，这几乎是一种非常美国式的做法。
汪洋和李源潮都不是西方意义上的自由派。汪洋镇压过广东其他地区发生的抗议活动。波士顿大学(Boston University)教授傅士卓(Joseph Fewsmith)研究过李源潮的政治改革尝试，他说，这些政治改革尝试都受到了中共的严格控制。
但是如果缺少他们二人中的任何一个，政治局常委会都会更加有可能会被保守派人物控制，许多保守派人物都与前国家主席江泽民有关系。
布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的中国政治专家李成说，如果李源潮和汪洋都没有进入新的政治局常委会，这将向世界发出一个消极信号。
他说，人们将会对中国急需的政治改革的前景更加悲观。
Jeremy Page
（Bob Davis、Brian Spegele、Tom Orlik 、James T. Areddy 对本文亦有贡献）
在中国选出新的领导阵容之际应当关注什么
政治局常委会的规模是否从九人缩减为七人──这样更容易达成共识，也会表明国内安全首脑的重要性已经下降。
现任组织部长李源潮是否未能进入政治局常委会──这对即将卸任的党总书记胡锦涛和政治改革派会是一记沉重打击。
广东省委书记汪洋是否落选──同样是对改革派的打击，但没那么严重，因为他可能在2017年进入常委会，届时还能任职10年。
可能担任下届总理的李克强是否第二个走出来──这表明以前排在第三位的总理一职在中共领导体系中的重要性上升。
目前任副总理的王歧山是否最后一个或倒数第二个走出来──表明他承担了反腐败职责，以避免在处理经济问题上与李克强发生冲突。
胡锦涛是否保留中央军委主席的职务──表明他在至多未来两年内仍将具有极大的政治影响力。
是否有外交政策专家被提拔为中央政治局委员──这会平衡军方在外交政策上的影响。
中央政治局委员选举时是否差额选举──表明中共有扩大党内民主的意愿。
《华尔街日报》研究
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
As China launches a once-a-decade transition of power at a Communist Party Congress that opens Thursday, the burning question is: Will the new lineup of leaders to be willing and able to radically overhaul an ossified political system and a growth model that has run out of steam?
The first signs of whether China is in for meaningful reform won't come until the culmination of the weeklong congress next Thursday, when the new Politburo Standing Committee--China's top governing body--files out in order of seniority onto a crimson podium in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
One clue will lie in how many people appear alongside Xi Jinping, the current vice president who is widely expected to appear first on the podium as the new party chief and figurehead of the 'fifth generation' of leaders since the revolution of 1949.
The congress opened on Thursday morning in Beijing's Great Hall of the People with a speech from Hu Jintao, China's departing president and party chief, who nodded to the challenges the party faces. 'The whole party must keep in mind the trust the people have placed in us and the great expectation they have of us,' he said, in an apparent allusion to rising public concerns about official corruption and unbalanced growth. He added, 'unbalanced uncoordinated and unsustainable development remains a big problem.'
State television lingered on the presence of Jiang Zemin, who was party chief from 1989 to 2002, suggesting the continued influence of the previous generation of leaders in picking the new slate.
The size and composition of the new Standing Committee is a closely guarded secret, thrashed out in backroom deals between departing and retired leaders, but party insiders say a consensus was reached in the past few weeks to cut two of the nine seats, including the one that controls the vast domestic-security apparatus.
That consensus could crumble at the last minute, party insiders say, but if the Standing Committee is indeed shrunk that way, it would help Mr. Xi to forge consensus among his peers, and could be step toward reining in police powers and strengthening the rule of law.
Another strong signal will be whether the new lineup includes one or both of the two candidates with the strongest track record on political reform: Wang Yang, the Party chief of Guangdong Province, and Li Yuanchao, the head of the Organization Department.
Mr. Xi, 59 years old, is taking over as the party confronts a raft of challenges, including a slowing economy, social unrest amid rising income inequality and a young urban population increasingly able to organize political opposition via social media.
China's growth slowed to 7.4% year-to-year in the third quarter of 2012, its lowest rate since the financial crisis, and well below the double-digit pace of the past decade. Worse, the composition of output shows an economy veering off balance, with investment contributing close to 50% of the total, and the share of household consumption just 35% in 2011.
Putting growth on a sustainable path, with a stronger role for consumption, will require painful reforms that could push growth lower in the short term. It also cuts against the interest of the most powerful players in China's society: local officials, state-owned enterprises and real-estate developers, who all benefit from the economy's current tilt toward heavy investment.
There is a broad consensus in China that without such reforms, the economy could stagnate, dooming its ambitions to graduate to the ranks of developed nations and exacerbating social tensions that could explode into regime-threatening violence, political analysts say.
Internationally, China is facing mounting tensions with many of it neighbors over territorial disputes at the same time as the U.S. shores up defense ties and reasserts its influence in Asia, while pressing Beijing over its ties with North Korea, Iran and Syria.
China's new lineup, to be rolled out just as the U.S. has re-elected President Barack Obama, will also be judged by its ability to keep on track relations with the U.S., a key market for Chinese exports and a source of technology, as well as a commitment to develop military power commensurate with China's rise as a global economic powerhouse with interests to protect from Latin America to the Middle East.
The party has managed a peaceful and orderly transition of power only once before--in 2002--and plans for this year's transition were thrown into turmoil early on by the scandal surrounding Bo Xilai, a former political highflier who was once a front-runner for promotion to the new Standing Committee.
Mr. Bo, whose wife was convicted in August of murdering a British businessman, is now facing criminal charges. Another rising star in the Party, Ling Jihua, was engulfed in scandal in March when he tried to cover up an accident in which his son was killed driving a Ferrari at high speed through Beijing.
Last month, the family of departing Premier Wen Jiabao issued a rare statement denying a media report that it had amassed a fortune worth $2.7 billion. Even within the party, there are now increasingly vocal calls for aggressive economic change--especially steps to break apart state-sector monopolies--and political reforms to address the issues at the core of the recent scandals: official abuse of power and the enormous wealth accumulated by many party leaders.
That means the new leadership that appears on the podium next week will be scrutinized like never before, both inside and outside China, for clues about their commitment to confront the problems that were largely ignored over the past decade under the departing president and party chief, Hu Jintao.
'There is a common understanding at all levels in the party that they cannot rule the same way as before: there has to be change,' said Zhang Lifan, a historian whose father was a close ally of Mr. Xi's father. 'But in practice, Mr. Xi needs strong support from other leaders if he is to challenge the interest groups preventing reform.'
The only people with guaranteed seats on the new Standing Committee are the two current members who are not retiring: Mr. Xi and current Vice Premier Li Keqiang, a lawyer and economist by training who is widely expected to take over as premier, the post responsible for managing the economy.
The other members have been selected over the past few months by departing leaders and about a dozen retired party 'elders,' each of whom has tried to ensure promotion of acolytes to preserve their private interests and political influence in retirement.
Party insiders say the proposal to shrink the Standing Committee grew out of concerns within the political elite that the body had become too ungainly and indecisive since being expanded from seven to nine in 2002, when Jiang Zemin stepped down as party chief.
Their other concern was that the domestic security chief for the last five years, Zhou Yongkang, has accumulated excessive powers as head of a shadowy body called the Politics and Law Commission, which oversees police, prosecutors, judges and spies.
'They realized that when they make the decisions, they don't want one of those at the table to be holding a gun,' said one academic who advises the party leadership.
The flip side of the proposal is that it would leave only five spare seats on the leaner Standing Committee, which has expanded and contracted over the years but traditionally always has an odd number of members.
In recent days, political observers and party insiders in Beijing have suggested that among those who could miss out are the two candidates known for their experiments with limited political reforms.
Wang Yang, the Guangdong party chief, has experimented with lifting restrictions on nongovernmental organizations and won plaudits for reaching a negotiated solution with villagers who revolted against party rule last year.
He is considered a favorite of Messrs. Hu and Wen, but he is opposed by other leaders who consider his approach to reform too progressive or who believe he is too young, at 57, to be promoted this year and should wait instead until 2017, according to party insiders.
More unexpectedly, opposition has grown in recent weeks to Li Yuanchao, the Organization Department chief, who studied at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government in 2002 and has overseen pilot schemes encouraging greater democracy within the party.
He told U.S. diplomats in 2007 that China could hold competitive elections for the Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee in 20-30 years, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.
In July of this year, he invited U.S. and European business executives to lecture leaders of China's state-owned enterprises about the need to focus on commercial matters, rather than political imperatives.
Robert Wexler, a former Florida congressman who has met Mr. Li in recent years, said he was impressed with his political openness. After one dinner, they strolled along a Nanjing promenade with no apparent security, greeting and engaging with local residents, Mr. Wexler recalled.
'It was almost a very American political thing to do, to take a walk amongst your constituents,' he said.
Neither Mr. Wang nor Mr. Li are liberals in a Western sense. Mr. Wang has crushed protests in other parts of Guangdong, and Joseph Fewsmith, a Boston University professor who has studied Mr. Li's experiments with political reform, says they were all tightly controlled by the party.
But a Standing Committee without either of them would be more likely to be dominated by conservative figures, many of them with links to Mr. Jiang, the former president.
'If neither Li Yuanchao nor Wang Yang is on the new Politburo Standing Committee, it will send a negative signal to the world,' said Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
'People will be even more pessimistic about China's much needed political reform.'
Jeremy Page
Bob Davis, Brian Spegele, Tom Orlik and James T. Areddy contributed to this article.
What to look for as China presents its new leader lineup
If Politburo Standing Committee is cut to seven from nine─should make it easier to reach consensus, and would also suggest the role of domestic security chief has been downgraded.
If Li Yuanchao, current Organization Department chief, is not included─a serious blow for departing party chief Hu Jintao, and for advocates of political reform.
If Wang Yang, party chief of Guangdong, is left out─also a blow for reformists, though less serious as he could join in 2017 and still serve 10 years.
If Li Keqiang, the likely future premier, walks out second─suggests the position of premier has been upgraded from No. 3 in Party hierarchy.
If Wang Qishan, current vice premier, is one of two last to walk out─suggests he has taken anticorruption job to avoid tension with Li Keqiang on handling economy.
If Hu Jintao remains head of the Central Military Commission─suggests he will retain significant political influence for up to two years.
If a foreign-policy expert is promoted to the wider Politburo─would help to counterbalance military influence in foreign policy.
If there are more candidates than seats in the election of Politburo members─could signal commitment to expand in-party democracy.
─WSJ research
The first signs of whether China is in for meaningful reform won't come until the culmination of the weeklong congress next Thursday, when the new Politburo Standing Committee--China's top governing body--files out in order of seniority onto a crimson podium in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
One clue will lie in how many people appear alongside Xi Jinping, the current vice president who is widely expected to appear first on the podium as the new party chief and figurehead of the 'fifth generation' of leaders since the revolution of 1949.
The congress opened on Thursday morning in Beijing's Great Hall of the People with a speech from Hu Jintao, China's departing president and party chief, who nodded to the challenges the party faces. 'The whole party must keep in mind the trust the people have placed in us and the great expectation they have of us,' he said, in an apparent allusion to rising public concerns about official corruption and unbalanced growth. He added, 'unbalanced uncoordinated and unsustainable development remains a big problem.'
State television lingered on the presence of Jiang Zemin, who was party chief from 1989 to 2002, suggesting the continued influence of the previous generation of leaders in picking the new slate.
The size and composition of the new Standing Committee is a closely guarded secret, thrashed out in backroom deals between departing and retired leaders, but party insiders say a consensus was reached in the past few weeks to cut two of the nine seats, including the one that controls the vast domestic-security apparatus.
That consensus could crumble at the last minute, party insiders say, but if the Standing Committee is indeed shrunk that way, it would help Mr. Xi to forge consensus among his peers, and could be step toward reining in police powers and strengthening the rule of law.
Another strong signal will be whether the new lineup includes one or both of the two candidates with the strongest track record on political reform: Wang Yang, the Party chief of Guangdong Province, and Li Yuanchao, the head of the Organization Department.
Mr. Xi, 59 years old, is taking over as the party confronts a raft of challenges, including a slowing economy, social unrest amid rising income inequality and a young urban population increasingly able to organize political opposition via social media.
China's growth slowed to 7.4% year-to-year in the third quarter of 2012, its lowest rate since the financial crisis, and well below the double-digit pace of the past decade. Worse, the composition of output shows an economy veering off balance, with investment contributing close to 50% of the total, and the share of household consumption just 35% in 2011.
Putting growth on a sustainable path, with a stronger role for consumption, will require painful reforms that could push growth lower in the short term. It also cuts against the interest of the most powerful players in China's society: local officials, state-owned enterprises and real-estate developers, who all benefit from the economy's current tilt toward heavy investment.
There is a broad consensus in China that without such reforms, the economy could stagnate, dooming its ambitions to graduate to the ranks of developed nations and exacerbating social tensions that could explode into regime-threatening violence, political analysts say.
Internationally, China is facing mounting tensions with many of it neighbors over territorial disputes at the same time as the U.S. shores up defense ties and reasserts its influence in Asia, while pressing Beijing over its ties with North Korea, Iran and Syria.
China's new lineup, to be rolled out just as the U.S. has re-elected President Barack Obama, will also be judged by its ability to keep on track relations with the U.S., a key market for Chinese exports and a source of technology, as well as a commitment to develop military power commensurate with China's rise as a global economic powerhouse with interests to protect from Latin America to the Middle East.
The party has managed a peaceful and orderly transition of power only once before--in 2002--and plans for this year's transition were thrown into turmoil early on by the scandal surrounding Bo Xilai, a former political highflier who was once a front-runner for promotion to the new Standing Committee.
Mr. Bo, whose wife was convicted in August of murdering a British businessman, is now facing criminal charges. Another rising star in the Party, Ling Jihua, was engulfed in scandal in March when he tried to cover up an accident in which his son was killed driving a Ferrari at high speed through Beijing.
Last month, the family of departing Premier Wen Jiabao issued a rare statement denying a media report that it had amassed a fortune worth $2.7 billion. Even within the party, there are now increasingly vocal calls for aggressive economic change--especially steps to break apart state-sector monopolies--and political reforms to address the issues at the core of the recent scandals: official abuse of power and the enormous wealth accumulated by many party leaders.
That means the new leadership that appears on the podium next week will be scrutinized like never before, both inside and outside China, for clues about their commitment to confront the problems that were largely ignored over the past decade under the departing president and party chief, Hu Jintao.
'There is a common understanding at all levels in the party that they cannot rule the same way as before: there has to be change,' said Zhang Lifan, a historian whose father was a close ally of Mr. Xi's father. 'But in practice, Mr. Xi needs strong support from other leaders if he is to challenge the interest groups preventing reform.'
The only people with guaranteed seats on the new Standing Committee are the two current members who are not retiring: Mr. Xi and current Vice Premier Li Keqiang, a lawyer and economist by training who is widely expected to take over as premier, the post responsible for managing the economy.
The other members have been selected over the past few months by departing leaders and about a dozen retired party 'elders,' each of whom has tried to ensure promotion of acolytes to preserve their private interests and political influence in retirement.
Party insiders say the proposal to shrink the Standing Committee grew out of concerns within the political elite that the body had become too ungainly and indecisive since being expanded from seven to nine in 2002, when Jiang Zemin stepped down as party chief.
Their other concern was that the domestic security chief for the last five years, Zhou Yongkang, has accumulated excessive powers as head of a shadowy body called the Politics and Law Commission, which oversees police, prosecutors, judges and spies.
'They realized that when they make the decisions, they don't want one of those at the table to be holding a gun,' said one academic who advises the party leadership.
The flip side of the proposal is that it would leave only five spare seats on the leaner Standing Committee, which has expanded and contracted over the years but traditionally always has an odd number of members.
In recent days, political observers and party insiders in Beijing have suggested that among those who could miss out are the two candidates known for their experiments with limited political reforms.
Wang Yang, the Guangdong party chief, has experimented with lifting restrictions on nongovernmental organizations and won plaudits for reaching a negotiated solution with villagers who revolted against party rule last year.
He is considered a favorite of Messrs. Hu and Wen, but he is opposed by other leaders who consider his approach to reform too progressive or who believe he is too young, at 57, to be promoted this year and should wait instead until 2017, according to party insiders.
More unexpectedly, opposition has grown in recent weeks to Li Yuanchao, the Organization Department chief, who studied at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government in 2002 and has overseen pilot schemes encouraging greater democracy within the party.
He told U.S. diplomats in 2007 that China could hold competitive elections for the Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee in 20-30 years, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.
In July of this year, he invited U.S. and European business executives to lecture leaders of China's state-owned enterprises about the need to focus on commercial matters, rather than political imperatives.
Robert Wexler, a former Florida congressman who has met Mr. Li in recent years, said he was impressed with his political openness. After one dinner, they strolled along a Nanjing promenade with no apparent security, greeting and engaging with local residents, Mr. Wexler recalled.
'It was almost a very American political thing to do, to take a walk amongst your constituents,' he said.
Neither Mr. Wang nor Mr. Li are liberals in a Western sense. Mr. Wang has crushed protests in other parts of Guangdong, and Joseph Fewsmith, a Boston University professor who has studied Mr. Li's experiments with political reform, says they were all tightly controlled by the party.
But a Standing Committee without either of them would be more likely to be dominated by conservative figures, many of them with links to Mr. Jiang, the former president.
'If neither Li Yuanchao nor Wang Yang is on the new Politburo Standing Committee, it will send a negative signal to the world,' said Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
'People will be even more pessimistic about China's much needed political reform.'
Jeremy Page
Bob Davis, Brian Spegele, Tom Orlik and James T. Areddy contributed to this article.
What to look for as China presents its new leader lineup
If Politburo Standing Committee is cut to seven from nine─should make it easier to reach consensus, and would also suggest the role of domestic security chief has been downgraded.
If Li Yuanchao, current Organization Department chief, is not included─a serious blow for departing party chief Hu Jintao, and for advocates of political reform.
If Wang Yang, party chief of Guangdong, is left out─also a blow for reformists, though less serious as he could join in 2017 and still serve 10 years.
If Li Keqiang, the likely future premier, walks out second─suggests the position of premier has been upgraded from No. 3 in Party hierarchy.
If Wang Qishan, current vice premier, is one of two last to walk out─suggests he has taken anticorruption job to avoid tension with Li Keqiang on handling economy.
If Hu Jintao remains head of the Central Military Commission─suggests he will retain significant political influence for up to two years.
If a foreign-policy expert is promoted to the wider Politburo─would help to counterbalance military influence in foreign policy.
If there are more candidates than seats in the election of Politburo members─could signal commitment to expand in-party democracy.
─WSJ research
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