对外国军火商实施贸易制裁，以惩罚它们向台湾供应武器，可能给中国带来事与愿违的负面效应，包括损害中国国内工业，使中国违反国际贸易规则，并削弱中国以具有竞争力的价格采购设备的能力。
奥巴马政府上周五宣布其首份对台军售方案后，中国周末威胁将对数家美国武器供应商实施制裁，包括飞机制造商波音(Boeing)。
中国航空业由政府所主导，采购活动一向具有浓厚的政治色彩。但据一名业内人士表示，对波音实施公然制裁，将对"中国现有的商用飞机机队产生严重不利影响"。
就为了惩罚该公司卖给台湾12枚导弹，这对中国而言似乎是一个很高的代价。
尽管近年来空客(Airbus)从中国赢得的订单略微超过波音，但波音飞机在中国商用飞机机队中仍占大约53%，高于空客36%的份额。
"我不认为他们会完全抛弃波音，因为他们需要有这张牌，以便对欧洲人施压，"香港民航处前处长、中国两大国有航空公司——国航(Air China)和东航(China Eastern)前董事乐巩南(Peter K.N. Lok)表示。"可能出现的情况是他们将重复以前的做法，即在采购飞机时略微倾向于空客。"
但分析师们表示，空客得到的任何额外好处都可能是短暂的。2008年北京奥运会之前，当法国政府表现出同情达赖喇嘛时，该公司也是中方愤怒的目标。
一名业内高管表示，参与对台军售的纯防务企业，包括洛克希德马丁(Lockheed Martin)和雷神(Raytheon)，不会那么担心北京方面的限制，因为它们在中国的业务有限。洛克希德公司在北京的全部员工，只有一名兼职的接待员。
相比之下，风险更大的是西科斯基飞机公司(Sikorsky Aircraft)，其母公司联合技术公司(UTC)旗下的奥的斯(Otis)电梯和开利(Carrier)牌暖气空调系统在中国享有巨大的市场。据UTC网站介绍，该公司在中国雇有1.6万人。根据奥巴马政府上周五向美国国会呈交的军售方案，西科斯基将向台湾出售60架黑鹰直升机。
但是，试图将UTC的民用产品挡在中国市场以外，中国可能很快就会遭遇美方根据世贸(WTO)规则发起的法律挑战。世贸规则禁止公然歧视外国民用设备供应商。
如果美国的挑战获得成功，北京方面可能面临针对中国出口的制裁，价值相当于美国企业估计的业务损失。
波音估计，中国今后20年的商用航空市场总量将达到大约4000亿美元。不过，贸易专家们表示，中国官员很清楚世贸规则，在布鲁塞尔和华盛顿都聘请了贸易律师，为自己提供咨询。因此，部长级官员会明白，对波音或其它公司实施制裁可能具有很大风险，并会导致中美商贸关系进一步恶化。
就更长期而言，中国已公开表示，计划到2020年推出国产大型喷气客机，取代波音和空客两家的产品。对北京来说，不幸的是，这一雄心在一定程度上有赖于全球两大喷气客机制造商（波音和空客）的支持、合作和技术共享。
多数分析人士都认为，中国不太可能对波音或其它美国军火供应商实施实质性制裁，进而危及自身利益。
"他们很可能给（波音）六个月的脸色看，订购20架空客飞机，然后让一切平静下来"，一名航空业高管表示。
译者/和风
Imposing trade sanctions on foreign arms contractors to punish them for supplying weapons to Taiwan could backfire on China, hurting domestic industry, putting it in contravention of international trade rules and undercutting its ability to buy equipment at competitive prices.
Over the weekend China threatened to impose sanctions on US weapons suppliers, including aircraft manufacturer Boeing, following the Obama administration's announcement on Friday of its first arms package to Taiwan.
China's aviation industry is dominated by the state, and procurement has always been heavily tinged by politics. But imposing outright sanctions on Boeing would have a "massively detrimental effect on China's existing fleet of commercial aircraft", according to one industry insider.
That would seem to be a large price to pay just to punish the company for selling 12 missiles to Taiwan.
While Airbus has won slightly more orders from China than Boeing in recent years, Boeing aircraft still make up about 53 per cent of China's total commercial fleet, compared with 36 per cent for Airbus.
"I don't think they'd discard Boeing completely because they want to have something to wield over the Europeans," said Peter K.N. Lok, Hong Kong's former director of civil aviation and a former board member of Air China and China Eastern, two of the country's largest state-owned airlines. "What could happen is what they've done before – tilting the sales of aircraft slightly more in favour of Airbus."
Still, any windfall for Airbus could be shortlived, say analysts. The company was a target of Chinese anger when the French government sympathised with the Dalai Lama ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Pure-play defence companies involved with the Taiwan sale – including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon – are less likely to worry about Beijing curbs as they have limited operations in China, according to a senior industry executive. Lockheed's entire Beijing staff amounts to one part-time receptionist.
More exposed is Sikorsky Aircraft, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp, which has a huge market in China for its Otis elevators and Carrier brand heating and air-conditioning systems. UTC also employs 16,000 people in China, says its website. Sikorsky plans to sell 60 Black Hawk helicopters to Taiwan under the deal presented to the US Congress on Friday.
But trying to block those products from the Chinese market would quickly expose Beijing to a US legal challenge under World Trade Organisation rules, which forbid open discrimination against foreign suppliers of civilian equipment.
If such a challenge succeeded, Beijing could face sanctions against its own exports that would be equivalent in value to the estimated loss of business to US companies.
Boeing estimates China's total commercial aviation market at about $400bn (€288bn, £251bn) over the next 20 years. However, trade experts say that Chinese officials are well aware of the WTO rules, and retain trade lawyers in Brussels and Washington to advise them. Ministers will therefore be aware that sanctions against Boeing or other companies could be risky and lead to a further deterioration in commercial relations with the US.
Over the longer term, China has openly said it intends to replace both Boeing and Airbus by unveiling its own homegrown jumbo jet by 2020. Unfortunately for Beijing that ambition relies partly on support, co-operation and technology sharing from the world's two big makers of jumbo jets – Boeing and Airbus.
Most analysts agree China is unlikely to jeopardise its own interests by imposing meaningful sanctions on Boeing or other US arms suppliers.
"They'll probably rap [Boeing's] knuckles for six months, order 20 Airbuses and then let it all die down," said one aviation executive.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001031119
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