据
估计，丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)召回和停售汽车带来的短期影响将使之付出10亿美元左右的代价，而如果这家世界最大的汽车生产商不迅速采取措施控制其后续影响，那么从长远来看，这个目前为止完美无缺的品牌所承受的损失将远不止这个数字。
Associated Press
一位客服经理在停车场中检查一辆2010年的丰田凯美瑞轿车
丰田在周一打破接近一个星期的沉默，开始公开讨论客户对于其车辆突然加速问题的担忧。它在美国主要市场的报纸上打出广告解释情况，其美国销售部门负责人兰茨(Jim Lentz)也开始接受一系列电视采访。在日本，该公司拟于周二就召回问题举行首次新闻发布会。
品牌管理专家、伟达公关(Hill & Knowlton Inc.)驻东京董事总经理吉川祥一(Shoichi Yoshikawa)说，几乎每一家公司都会遇到召回问题，就看你事后采取什么措施；如果迟迟不解决，公司品牌价值就朝着一个方面稳步行进：下降。
丰田的多款车型所存在的内在缺陷可能导致车辆突然加速。作为对外界担忧的回应，丰田决定暂停销售其旗下的八款车型，包括在美国十分畅销的凯美瑞。《华尔街日报》的杰夫・本奈特(Jeff Bennett)分析了这一事件给丰田公司带来的影响。
据吉川介绍，品牌价值的下降是综合销售减少和股价下跌等因素而得出的。
丰田尚未披露北美产销停顿、欧洲和中国连带召回带来的影响，但自1月21日因突然加速问题发出第二个召回令以来，其市值已经下跌18%，跌去2.55万亿日圆（合282亿美元）。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻东京汽车分析师桑格(Kurt Sanger)表示，丰田北美制造产能已有约60%停产，而停售八个型号的汽车可能会使该公司每周失去最多18,600辆的销量。
桑格说：我们认为这是一个1000亿日圆（合11亿美元）的问题。
他预计丰田因召回和工厂停产而产生的直接成本在500亿-600亿日圆。不过算上支付租车费用、为无法再出售的存货向经销商提供补贴等间接成本，丰田的总成本可能在1,000亿日圆。
上述估计还不包括无形的因素，包括品牌形象削弱、可能遭起诉以及广告开支可能增加。
东京研究公司Advanced Research Japan的分析师远藤浩二（Koji Endo）说，他觉得销售暂停可能持续一个月，销量损失约10万辆。由于受影响的车型平均每辆车毛利润在70万日圆左右，远藤浩二预计丰田将为此损失大约700亿日圆。
丰田发言人拒绝就暂停销售和生产将给公司带来多大损失发表评论。
截至2009年3月31日，丰田已经为所售出的车辆拿出4292亿日圆保证金，但该公司说这笔钱并非用于支付召回成本的资金。
丰田可能还被迫增加广告和促销方面的开支。在截至2009年3月31日的上一财年，丰田开支为3892亿日圆，较上年下滑20%，因公司在全球经济低迷之际缩减了开支。
信用评级机构也在密切关注丰田的品牌形象。
丰田资产负债表内有逾290亿美元现金，借贷水平很低，因此并没有出现信贷风险，不过评级机构惠誉(Fitch)上周将该公司的A+评级列入负面观察。惠誉说，召回和暂停销售给丰田的质量声誉带来了不利影响。
信用评级机构穆迪（Moody's）和标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)说，丰田当前的行动尚无影响，不过标普上周警告说，如果丰田品牌形象削弱，其评级可能遭下调。
公司信用评级下调可能导致其在债市筹资成本更高。
Daisuke Wakabayashi / Mariko Sanchanta / Yoshio Takahashi
（更新完成）
The immediate impact of Toyota Motor Corp.'s recalls and sales stoppages is estimated to cost the company around $1 billion, but the longer-term damage to the auto maker's hitherto impeccable brand is set to be much larger unless the world's biggest car maker acts swiftly to contain the fallout.
Analysts say damage to Toyota's brand could require the company to spend on advertising, sales incentives and possible legal bills.
Toyota began Monday to publicly discuss consumer concerns over sudden acceleration of its vehicles, following nearly a week of silence. It took out newspaper ads explaining the situation in major U.S. markets, and the head of its U.S. sales arm, Jim Lentz, began a round of television interviews. In Japan, the company is slated to hold its first press conference on the recall on Tuesday.
'Almost every company has to deal with a recall, the issue is what you do after,' said Shoichi Yoshikawa, a branding expert and managing director at public relations agency Hill & Knowlton Inc. in Tokyo. 'By putting off the issue, the company's brand value steadily goes one way: down.'
Automotive Lease Guide, a Santa Barbara, California-based company tracking the residual value of cars and brand values, believes Toyota's perceived quality score could fall 20%, leading to a 4% drop in the residual value of its cars, if it doesn't resolve the situation quickly and without further recalls. Toyota may have to put aside more reserves if the value of autos coming off leases declines. A fall in residual value also decreases the amount of money consumers get at trade-in or when they try to resell a used car.
A drop in brand value, according to Mr. Yoshikawa, is determined through a combination of factors including sales declines and stock price falls.
While Toyota hasn't disclosed the impact from the production and sales halt, along with related recalls in Europe and China, the company's market value has dropped 18%, or 2.55 trillion yen, ($28.2 billion) since it issued a second recall for the sudden acceleration problems on Jan. 21.
Kurt Sanger, car analyst at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo, says Toyota has halted production on about 60% of its North American manufacturing capacity and the sales stoppage of eight models could cost the company up to 18,600 units of sales per week.
'We think it's a 100 billion yen [$1.1 billion] problem,' said Mr. Sanger.
He estimates that the direct costs to Toyota from the recall and factory stoppage are in the 50 billion yen to 60 billion yen range. But with the indirect costs factored in, including paying for rent-a-car costs and subsidizing dealers for inventory they can no longer sell, the total cost for Toyota could be 100 billion yen.
Those estimates don't include less tangible factors like a weaker brand image, litigation risk and possible increase in advertising expenses.
Koji Endo, analyst at Tokyo-based research firm Advanced Research Japan, says he thinks the sales suspension could last for a month, resulting in a sales loss of about 100,000 vehicles. Since the average gross profit margin on the affected models are around 700,000 yen per vehicle, Mr. Endo estimates that it will cost Toyota about 70 billion yen.
A Toyota spokesman declined to comment on how much the sales and production suspension will cost the company.
As of the end of March 31, 2009, Toyota has set aside 429.2 billion yen for warranties on vehicles that it has sold, although the company says that reserve is different from cash set aside to pay for the cost of recalls.
Toyota will also likely be forced to increase its spending on advertising and sales promotion. In the previous fiscal year ended March 31, 2009, it spent 389.2 billion yen, a 20% decline year-to-year as the company scaled back spending amid the global economic downturn.
Credit rating agencies are also keeping an eye on Toyota's brand image.
With more than $29 billion in cash on its balance sheet and very low levels of borrowing, Toyota doesn't stand out as a credit risk, but ratings agency Fitch last week placed the company's 'A+' rating on negative watch. Fitch said the recall and sales suspension casts a negative light on Toyota's reputation for quality.
Rival credit services Moody's and Standard & Poor's have said there is no impact from the current freeze, but S&P warned last week that its rating could be lowered 'if Toyota's brand image is weakened.'
A reduction in a company's credit rating can make it more expensive to raise money in the debt market.
Daisuke Wakabayashi / Mariko Sanchanta / Yoshio Takahashi
Analysts say damage to Toyota's brand could require the company to spend on advertising, sales incentives and possible legal bills.
Toyota began Monday to publicly discuss consumer concerns over sudden acceleration of its vehicles, following nearly a week of silence. It took out newspaper ads explaining the situation in major U.S. markets, and the head of its U.S. sales arm, Jim Lentz, began a round of television interviews. In Japan, the company is slated to hold its first press conference on the recall on Tuesday.
'Almost every company has to deal with a recall, the issue is what you do after,' said Shoichi Yoshikawa, a branding expert and managing director at public relations agency Hill & Knowlton Inc. in Tokyo. 'By putting off the issue, the company's brand value steadily goes one way: down.'
Automotive Lease Guide, a Santa Barbara, California-based company tracking the residual value of cars and brand values, believes Toyota's perceived quality score could fall 20%, leading to a 4% drop in the residual value of its cars, if it doesn't resolve the situation quickly and without further recalls. Toyota may have to put aside more reserves if the value of autos coming off leases declines. A fall in residual value also decreases the amount of money consumers get at trade-in or when they try to resell a used car.
A drop in brand value, according to Mr. Yoshikawa, is determined through a combination of factors including sales declines and stock price falls.
While Toyota hasn't disclosed the impact from the production and sales halt, along with related recalls in Europe and China, the company's market value has dropped 18%, or 2.55 trillion yen, ($28.2 billion) since it issued a second recall for the sudden acceleration problems on Jan. 21.
Kurt Sanger, car analyst at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo, says Toyota has halted production on about 60% of its North American manufacturing capacity and the sales stoppage of eight models could cost the company up to 18,600 units of sales per week.
'We think it's a 100 billion yen [$1.1 billion] problem,' said Mr. Sanger.
He estimates that the direct costs to Toyota from the recall and factory stoppage are in the 50 billion yen to 60 billion yen range. But with the indirect costs factored in, including paying for rent-a-car costs and subsidizing dealers for inventory they can no longer sell, the total cost for Toyota could be 100 billion yen.
Those estimates don't include less tangible factors like a weaker brand image, litigation risk and possible increase in advertising expenses.
Koji Endo, analyst at Tokyo-based research firm Advanced Research Japan, says he thinks the sales suspension could last for a month, resulting in a sales loss of about 100,000 vehicles. Since the average gross profit margin on the affected models are around 700,000 yen per vehicle, Mr. Endo estimates that it will cost Toyota about 70 billion yen.
A Toyota spokesman declined to comment on how much the sales and production suspension will cost the company.
As of the end of March 31, 2009, Toyota has set aside 429.2 billion yen for warranties on vehicles that it has sold, although the company says that reserve is different from cash set aside to pay for the cost of recalls.
Toyota will also likely be forced to increase its spending on advertising and sales promotion. In the previous fiscal year ended March 31, 2009, it spent 389.2 billion yen, a 20% decline year-to-year as the company scaled back spending amid the global economic downturn.
Credit rating agencies are also keeping an eye on Toyota's brand image.
With more than $29 billion in cash on its balance sheet and very low levels of borrowing, Toyota doesn't stand out as a credit risk, but ratings agency Fitch last week placed the company's 'A+' rating on negative watch. Fitch said the recall and sales suspension casts a negative light on Toyota's reputation for quality.
Rival credit services Moody's and Standard & Poor's have said there is no impact from the current freeze, but S&P warned last week that its rating could be lowered 'if Toyota's brand image is weakened.'
A reduction in a company's credit rating can make it more expensive to raise money in the debt market.
Daisuke Wakabayashi / Mariko Sanchanta / Yoshio Takahashi
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