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在美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)开始首次访华之行数小时前,中国银监会主席刘明康尖锐地评价了美国金融管理,这彰显出了两国之间的经济和贸易紧张状况,可能会给奥巴马此次访问蒙上阴影。刘明康说,美元的持续贬值和长期低利率状态对全球投机推波助澜,投机催生了全球资产泡沫,对全球经济的复苏,尤其是新兴市场经济的复苏形成了不可避免的风险。他说,这种状况严重影响了全球资产价格,使得股市和楼市的投机行为更加兴盛。
AFP/Getty Images
中国银监会主席刘明康今年2月份在北京的一个记者招待会上
动身前往中国之前,奥巴马与俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)共同警告伊朗"所剩时间已经不多",强调了他关于伊朗问题议程的紧迫性。
奥巴马此行已经出现了一些问题。奥巴马定于周一与上海的大学生召开会议,但两国政府就活动安排进行了激烈争执;中国方面希望对观众和所提问题进行筛选,而美国希望进行更为自由的交流。
美国政府官员最后强调,奥巴马不仅会回答现场听众的问题,还会回答通过电子邮件形式发至美国大使馆的问题。这一活动将在白宫网站whitehouse.gov上现场直播,中国也同意在中国官方新华社的新华网上进行直播。
在奥巴马周日晚间抵达中国之前,两国关于全球经济管理问题的意见分歧已经显著升温。中国领导人此前表达了不安情绪,担心美国可能准备牺牲中国的经济利益来推动自身走出这场二战以来最为严重的经济衰退。中国是美国最大的债权国。中国担心,美国巨大的预算赤字可能会导致美元走软,导致中国巨大的外汇储备价值显著缩水。根据可获得的最新数据,截至9月底,中国共持有2.273万亿美元的外汇储备。
奥巴马政府与中国的贸易纷争加剧了中国政府对美国意图的猜疑。
这些纷争开始于9月份,当时美国决定对中国出口轮胎征收高额关税。此后美国还决定对中国钢管征收关税,中国方面指责美国此举是在滥用保护主义。
目前美国正在着手进行倾销案(以低于市场价进行销售的行为)调查,调查对象包括来自中国和印尼的铜版纸,以及中国生产的一种磷酸盐。中国也已经开始对美国部分汽车进口展开了自己的调查。
刘明康的言论表明,汇率问题可能会成为奥巴马此次访华过程中的一个棘手问题。
美国把利率维持在近零水平的政策,对中国影响尤甚,因为中国的人民币一直与美元基本挂钩。美国和欧盟等主要贸易伙伴敦促中国让其本币升值,世界银行(World Bank)和国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)等多边机构也表示,人民币升值有助于避免出现资产泡沫,原因之一在于外资购买中国资产的成本将会变得更高。
周日在新加坡举行的亚太经济合作组织(APEC)峰会上,部分领导人力促在最后的公报中提及汇率问题,但美国与中国代表团对侧重点产生争执,因而迫使有关汇率问题的措辞被完全排除。
在奥巴马启程访问亚洲之前,美国国家安全委员会(National Security Council)东亚事务高级主任巴德尔(Jeffrey Bader)表示,中国朝着以市场为基础的汇率政策推进,是美国政策"不可或缺的一部分"。
白宫官员表示,奥巴马政府已做大量努力保证对华关系顺畅过渡。巴德尔说,美中关系即将迎来良好开端。
巴德尔说,在处于我们日程中心的各种全球性议题上面,从全球经济复苏、气候变化、能源、朝鲜到伊朗,中国都是一个至关重要的参与者。
他承认,两国间有着根植于历史的不信任,他说这将是奥巴马在上海和北京予以关注的。国家安全委员会另一位官员罗兹(Ben Rhodes)表示,奥巴马在华期间,将尤为强调贸易和美国依靠出口拉动复苏的问题。
自从他的亚洲之行启程以来,奥巴马已经改变在贸易问题上的口风,强调贸易是美国不景气就业市场的一个就业问题。这种措辞相比他竞选总统的时候已经大为不同,当时他对各种贸易协定的经济价值提出质疑。
周六在东京三得利音乐厅(Suntory Hall),在对日本听众发表访亚期间一次重要的政策演讲时,奥巴马有关中国的措辞十分谨慎。他说,我知道很多人对于美国如何看待中国的崛起存有疑问,但像我已经讲过的,在一个错综联结的世界,实力不一定非得是一种零和游戏,各国也不需要对其他国家的成功感到恐惧。
有人担心,奥巴马当选总统以来首次访问亚洲期间,在贸易、人权、国家安全和环境问题上,失望将大于进展。周日世界各国领导人放弃了在下月哥本哈根会议上达成约束性国际气候变化协议的目标,而准备致力于为将来的谈判达成一个所谓的政治性框架。
信奉严格限制温室气体排放的奥巴马当选总统,曾让环保人士更加相信,哥本哈根大会将产生一项严格的约束性条约,取代1997年生效、2012年到期的《京都议定书》。
Aaron Back
(更新完成)
China's top banking regulator issued a sharp critique of U.S. financial management only hours before President Barack Obama commenced his first visit to the Asian giant, highlighting economic and trade tensions that threaten to overshadow the trip.
Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that a weak U.S. dollar and low U.S. interest rates had led to 'massive speculation' that was inflating asset bubbles around the world. It has created 'unavoidable risks for the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging economies,' Mr. Liu said. The situation is 'seriously impacting global asset prices and encouraging speculation in stock and property markets.'
His comments signaled that Mr. Obama -- on the third leg of a four-country Asian tour -- can expect blunt talk from Chinese leaders on the economy. The issue could complicate his broad agenda in China that also includes efforts to extract new commitments on climate change and to encourage them to take a more active role to defuse nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea.
Before heading to China, Mr. Obama underscored the urgency of his agenda on Iran by joining Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in warning Tehran that 'we are now running out of time.'
The trip has already had some hiccups. Wrangling between the administration and Beijing over Mr. Obama's town hall meeting with university students in Shanghai on Monday was intense, with China wanting to screen the audience and its questions, and the U.S. wanting a freer exchange.
Administration officials wound up emphasizing that the president would take questions not only from the audience but also from e-mails sent to the U.S. embassy. The event was to be broadcast live over the White House's Web site, whitehouse.gov, and the Chinese also agreed to broadcast it live locally on Xinhuanet, a site run by China's government-run news agency.
Differences over global economic management have been bubbling ahead of Obama's arrival on Sunday night. Chinese leaders previously expressed nervousness that the U.S. may be ready to sacrifice China's economic interests to haul itself out of the worst recession since World War II. China is the largest creditor to the U.S. It frets that huge U.S. budget deficits will weaken the dollar and slash the value of China's massive foreign-currency holdings, which hit $2.273 trillion at the end of September, the latest figure available.
Beijing's suspicions of U.S. intentions have been exacerbated by trade quarrels under the Obama administration.
These began in September, when U.S. decided to hit Chinese tire exporters with tariffs. The U.S. has since targeted Chinese steel pipes with tariffs, a decision that China denounced as 'abusive protectionism.'
The U.S. is now moving ahead with investigations into the alleged 'dumping' (or selling at below-market prices) of coated paper from China and Indonesia, and of certain phosphate salts from China. China has started its own investigation into imports of some U.S. cars.
Mr. Liu's comments suggest that currency could emerge as a thorny issue during Mr. Obama's visit.
China is particularly affected by the U.S. policy to keep interest rates at near-zero because it has kept its own currency, the yuan, largely pegged to the dollar. Key trading partners like the U.S. and European Union have urged China to let its currency appreciate, and multilateral agencies like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have said a stronger yuan would help avoid risks of asset bubbles, in part because that would make it more expensive for outsiders to buy Chinese assets.
Some leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore on Sunday pressed for language on currency to be in the forum's final communique. But disputes between the U.S. And Chinese delegations over emphasis forced all currency language to be dropped.
Before the president's departure on the Asia trip, Jeffrey Bader, the National Security Council's senior director for East Asian affairs, said that it is 'an integral part of U.S. policy that China move to a market-based approach to currency.'
White House officials say the administration has worked hard to ensure a smooth transition in relations with China. 'The relationship is off to a good start,' Mr. Bader said.
'China is an essential player on the global issues that are the center of our agenda, global economic recover, climate change, energy, North Korea, Iran,' Mr. Bader said.
He acknowledged a historic degree of mistrust between the two nations, which he said Mr. Obama will focus on in Shanghai and Beijing. Ben Rhodes, another NSC official, said Mr. Obama's emphasis on trade and an export-driven recovery for the United States will be especially strong in China.
The U.S. president has made a tonal shift on trade since his departure, emphasizing trade as a jobs issue for the moribund U.S. labor market. That is a striking rhetorical change from his campaign for president, when he questioned the economic value of trade agreements.
In the one major policy address of his trip, Mr. Obama treated China gingerly before a Japanese audience in Tokyo's Suntory Hall on Saturday. 'I know there are many who question how the United States perceives China's emergence, but as I have said, in an interconnected world, power does not need to be a zero-sum game, and nations need not fear the success of another,' he said.
There is concern that Mr. Obama's first swing through Asia as president will yield more disappointment than progress on trade, human rights, national security and environmental concerns. On Sunday, APEC leaders dropped efforts to reach a binding international climate-change agreement in Copenhagen next month, settling instead for what they called a political framework for future negotiations.
The election of Mr. Obama, a believer in strict limits on greenhouse-gas emissions, had raised hopes among environmentalists that Copenhagen would produce a tough, binding treaty to follow the Kyoto Accords of 1997, which expire in 2012.
Aaron Back
Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that a weak U.S. dollar and low U.S. interest rates had led to 'massive speculation' that was inflating asset bubbles around the world. It has created 'unavoidable risks for the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging economies,' Mr. Liu said. The situation is 'seriously impacting global asset prices and encouraging speculation in stock and property markets.'
His comments signaled that Mr. Obama -- on the third leg of a four-country Asian tour -- can expect blunt talk from Chinese leaders on the economy. The issue could complicate his broad agenda in China that also includes efforts to extract new commitments on climate change and to encourage them to take a more active role to defuse nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea.
Before heading to China, Mr. Obama underscored the urgency of his agenda on Iran by joining Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in warning Tehran that 'we are now running out of time.'
The trip has already had some hiccups. Wrangling between the administration and Beijing over Mr. Obama's town hall meeting with university students in Shanghai on Monday was intense, with China wanting to screen the audience and its questions, and the U.S. wanting a freer exchange.
Administration officials wound up emphasizing that the president would take questions not only from the audience but also from e-mails sent to the U.S. embassy. The event was to be broadcast live over the White House's Web site, whitehouse.gov, and the Chinese also agreed to broadcast it live locally on Xinhuanet, a site run by China's government-run news agency.
Differences over global economic management have been bubbling ahead of Obama's arrival on Sunday night. Chinese leaders previously expressed nervousness that the U.S. may be ready to sacrifice China's economic interests to haul itself out of the worst recession since World War II. China is the largest creditor to the U.S. It frets that huge U.S. budget deficits will weaken the dollar and slash the value of China's massive foreign-currency holdings, which hit $2.273 trillion at the end of September, the latest figure available.
Beijing's suspicions of U.S. intentions have been exacerbated by trade quarrels under the Obama administration.
These began in September, when U.S. decided to hit Chinese tire exporters with tariffs. The U.S. has since targeted Chinese steel pipes with tariffs, a decision that China denounced as 'abusive protectionism.'
The U.S. is now moving ahead with investigations into the alleged 'dumping' (or selling at below-market prices) of coated paper from China and Indonesia, and of certain phosphate salts from China. China has started its own investigation into imports of some U.S. cars.
Mr. Liu's comments suggest that currency could emerge as a thorny issue during Mr. Obama's visit.
China is particularly affected by the U.S. policy to keep interest rates at near-zero because it has kept its own currency, the yuan, largely pegged to the dollar. Key trading partners like the U.S. and European Union have urged China to let its currency appreciate, and multilateral agencies like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have said a stronger yuan would help avoid risks of asset bubbles, in part because that would make it more expensive for outsiders to buy Chinese assets.
Some leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore on Sunday pressed for language on currency to be in the forum's final communique. But disputes between the U.S. And Chinese delegations over emphasis forced all currency language to be dropped.
Before the president's departure on the Asia trip, Jeffrey Bader, the National Security Council's senior director for East Asian affairs, said that it is 'an integral part of U.S. policy that China move to a market-based approach to currency.'
White House officials say the administration has worked hard to ensure a smooth transition in relations with China. 'The relationship is off to a good start,' Mr. Bader said.
'China is an essential player on the global issues that are the center of our agenda, global economic recover, climate change, energy, North Korea, Iran,' Mr. Bader said.
He acknowledged a historic degree of mistrust between the two nations, which he said Mr. Obama will focus on in Shanghai and Beijing. Ben Rhodes, another NSC official, said Mr. Obama's emphasis on trade and an export-driven recovery for the United States will be especially strong in China.
The U.S. president has made a tonal shift on trade since his departure, emphasizing trade as a jobs issue for the moribund U.S. labor market. That is a striking rhetorical change from his campaign for president, when he questioned the economic value of trade agreements.
In the one major policy address of his trip, Mr. Obama treated China gingerly before a Japanese audience in Tokyo's Suntory Hall on Saturday. 'I know there are many who question how the United States perceives China's emergence, but as I have said, in an interconnected world, power does not need to be a zero-sum game, and nations need not fear the success of another,' he said.
There is concern that Mr. Obama's first swing through Asia as president will yield more disappointment than progress on trade, human rights, national security and environmental concerns. On Sunday, APEC leaders dropped efforts to reach a binding international climate-change agreement in Copenhagen next month, settling instead for what they called a political framework for future negotiations.
The election of Mr. Obama, a believer in strict limits on greenhouse-gas emissions, had raised hopes among environmentalists that Copenhagen would produce a tough, binding treaty to follow the Kyoto Accords of 1997, which expire in 2012.
Aaron Back
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