具有传奇色彩的英国选股者安东尼·波顿(Anthony Bolton)正在拿自己的名声冒险，他拿出4.6亿英镑（合7.02亿美元），押注中国正从出口型经济转向内需型经济。
今年4月，在一片沸沸扬扬的宣传声中，富达国际(Fidelity International)投资总裁波顿推出了价值4.6亿英镑的"中国特殊情况基金"。在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，波顿透露，消费板块在该基金的资产配置占据了绝对权重。
"出口企业的黄金时代即将划上句号，现如今，国内经济将成为主角，国内消费者将成为市场的推动者，"波顿表示。
波顿在挑选绩优股方面拥有令人惊叹的过往记录。他表示，这次大宗商品生产商或出口企业所占权重相对很小。
直到去年年底，波顿还计划着退休，去加勒比海地区安享晚年，但对中国经济前景的信心促使他决定成立了这只香港基金。
波顿的看多立场让他站到了许多大牌投资者的对立面，比如Eclectica资产管理公司的主管休•亨德利(Hugh Hendry)，以及《股市荣枯及厄运报告》(Gloom Boom & Doom Report)的作者马克•费伯(Marc Faber)。亨德利和费伯都押注中国经济会崩盘。
其他投资者将认真分析波顿的资产组合选择，以追赶他的往日胜绩。波顿管理伦敦的富达国际特殊情况基金长达28年，实现了19.5%的年回报率。
中国特殊情况基金的权重配置严重偏向于依赖国内经济的行业，包括金融、零售、服务业和制药业。
波顿将大约五分之一的资金配置在非必需消费品板块。相比之下，在波顿倚为基准的摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数(MSCI China index)中，非必需消费品板块所占比重只有二十分之一。
波顿基金持股比重最大的是金融类股，约占基金总资产的三分之一，比基准指数中的比例要低。波顿表示，他相信，去年中资银行的放贷热潮不会导致不良债务出现危险性的增加。
波顿将超过半数的资金投资于中型企业和小型股，以期从没有得到充分调研的股票上获利。
在西方国家，购入大多数投资者所忽视的股票，曾让波顿收益颇丰。但怀疑论者质疑，波顿能否在中国玩转同样的伎俩，因为他不会说中文，而且三个月前才搬到香港。
他掌管的这只基金未能实现6.5亿英镑（合10亿美元）的筹资目标，也说明了投资者的犹豫不决。
在波顿的资产组合中，只有12%为中国内地上市股票。其余大多数是在香港、美国等海外地区上市的中国股票，以及汇丰(HSBC)等在香港上市的其它股票。
今年4月，中国特殊情况基金开始在伦敦证交所交易，此前共募集到4.6亿英镑，成为16年来英国规模最大的投资信托基金。
该基金中权重最大的四只股票是中国移动(China Mobile)、中国工商银行(Industrial and Commercial Bank Of China)、招商银行(China Merchants Bank)以及中国互联网企业腾讯(Tencent)。
译者/管婧
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033640
Anthony Bolton, the fabled British stockpicker, is staking his reputation on a £460m ($702m) bet that the Chinese economy is shifting away from exports and towards domestic consumption.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Bolton, whose China Special Situations fund of that value was launched in April amid a blaze of publicity, revealed that his portfolio was heavily weighted towards stocks in the consumer sector.
"The golden era for exports is coming to a conclusion and now it's going to be very much more about the domestic economy, the domestic consumer – that's going to drive the market," said Mr Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity International.
Mr Bolton, who has a formidable track record at picking winning stocks, said he had taken on relatively little exposure to commodity producers or exporters.
Until late last year, Mr Bolton planned to retire to the Caribbean, but decided to set up the Hong Kong fund because of his belief in the prospects of China's economy.
Mr Bolton's bullish stance pits him against big-name investors such as Hugh Hendry, head of Eclectica Asset Management, and Marc Faber, author of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report, who are betting that the Chinese economy will crash.
Mr Bolton's portfolio selection will be closely analysed by other investors seeking to emulate his previous success. During his 28 years running Fidelity International's Special Situations fund in London, he delivered an annualised return of 19.5 per cent.
The China Special Situations fund is heavily weighted towards sectors that are plays on the domestic economy, including financials, retailers, service businesses, and pharmaceuticals.
About one fifth of Mr Bolton's fund is allocated to stocks in the consumer discretionary sector. By contrast, the consumer discretionary sector makes up just a twentieth of the MSCI China index against which his fund is benchmarked.
His biggest sector holding is in financial stocks, which account for a third of the fund – a lower proportion than in the benchmark. Mr Bolton said he was confident that last year's lending binge by Chinese banks would not lead to a dangerous rise in bad debts.
In a bid to take advantage of under-researched stocks, Mr Bolton has invested more than half of the fund in medium-sized companies and small caps.
Buying stocks overlooked by most investors was a strategy that served Mr Bolton well in the west. But sceptics question whether Mr Bolton will be able to pull off the same trick in China, given that he does not speak Mandarin and only moved to Hong Kong three months ago.
In another indication of investor hesitance, his fund failed to reach its target of £650m ($1bn).
Only 12 per cent of Mr Bolton's holdings are listed on stock exchanges on the Chinese mainland. Most are China stocks listed in Hong Kong, the US and elsewhere, as well as other stocks listed in Hong Kong such as HSBC.
The China Special Situations fund raised £460m before starting trading on the London Stock Exchange in April, becoming the largest UK investment trust to be launched in 16 years.
The four biggest individual holdings in the fund are China Mobile, Industrial and Commercial Bank Of China, China Merchants Bank, and Tencent, the Chinese internet business.
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