在北京通州的天时名苑，感觉就像暴风雨来临前的平静。通州是北京市郊一个蓬勃发展的通勤城镇。售楼处内空无一人，过去两个月连一套房子也没有卖出去，但价格却丝毫没有松动。必然有一方要做出让步。
正是这样的一些局面考验着中国政府的神经。随着中国经济今年早些时候呈现出过热的风险，中国政府正努力逐渐给经济降温。
降温主要策略之一是将投机者赶出房地产市场，而这正是通州楼盘销售降至冰点的原因。
除了抑制一些城市形成的房地产泡沫，中国政府还出台了一系列其它措施，戒除中国经济对过去一年大规模刺激措施的依赖，努力实现软着陆。
上周公布的经济数据显示，中国二季度经济同比增长10.3%，较一季度的11.9%有所回落，彰显了这些措施的初步成效。
未来几个月，中国政府可能仍将面临棘手的两难局面。如果房价大幅下降，并导致建筑活动锐减，中国政府将会面临压力，改变政策方向——代价是重新吹大泡沫。
加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的布莱恩•杰克逊(Brian Jackson)表示："目前的风险是，如果政策制定者担心总体增长率下跌过多，中国会撤出调整经济结构的道路。"
通州是近期房地产繁荣较为极端的例子之一。通州区距离北京约20英里，已成为因负担不起高房价而被迫离开市区的中产阶级家庭的普遍选择。当地政府雄心勃勃——两年前，它宣布计划修建一座500米高的大楼，比北京最高的建筑还要高出50%。
天时名苑楼盘显示了楼市是如何的急转直下。这个紧邻通往北京市中心的新轻轨的楼盘于去年夏季开始发售，到今年4月，房价已翻了一番，至每平米2.4万元人民币（合3500美元）。不过，尽管尚有三分之一的住宅仍未售出，但自政府4月份宣布打击措施以来，这些房屋一直无人问津。
今年5月初，中国最大的房地产中介之一——21世纪不动产(21st Century)在通州的通胡大街开了一家分店。自那以来，尽管一些楼盘的挂牌价已下滑了15%，但它总共仅卖出了一套房子。
就连通州区规划局也不得不收敛拳脚。上月，那栋大楼的高度被降到了仅200米——政府官员解释说，这是为了防止干扰空中交通。
中国政府以前有过类似的经历。2007年末，政府出台了给房地产市场降温的类似举措，但当经济增速开始大幅放缓时，它又转过头来鼓励人们买房。
麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)经济学家保罗•凯维(Paul Cavey)表示，如果中国政府打压房地产市场的努力再次动摇，就会竖立中国版本的"格林斯潘对策"(Greenspan Put)——美联储(Fed)前主席艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)通过降息来支撑证券市场的做法。中国投资者可能会开始相信，投资房地产永远不会亏钱，因为政府永远都会施以援手。结果可能是日后出现更大的泡沫。
里昂证券(CLSA)驻上海的经济学家罗福万(Andy Rothman)表示："他们没有理由现在就着手放宽政策。"
住房市场和中国经济的软着陆，是驻中国经济学家们的主流观点。此外，如果中国政府这么快就改变策略，它的可信度就会大大下降。中国总理温家宝上周五表示，政府将保持经济政策的"连续性和稳定性"。
中国经济还可能受益于政府为低收入家庭建造公租房的雄心勃勃的新计划。即使楼市持续低迷，这项旨在使工薪阶层免受楼市波动影响的计划，也会为建筑业提供支撑。
不过，正如通州的情况所显示的，未来房价有可能出现更大幅度的下跌——至少在中国的部分地区。一些有影响力的报纸纷纷呼吁政府结束政策紧缩。与房地产部门关系密切、有时甚至朋比为奸的地方政府，将努力进行游说，防止房价大跌。中国房地产市场的政治斗争很可能会变得更加险恶。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033669
It feels like the calm before the storm at the Heavenly Famous Garden housing complex in Tongzhou, a booming commuter town on the outskirts of Beijing. The showroom is empty and for the past two months not a single flat has been sold, yet prices have not budged. Something has to give.
It is situations such as this that are testing the nerve of Chinese authorities as they try gradually to cool an economy that was at risk of overheating earlier in the year.
One of the main tactics has been a campaign to drive speculators out of the property market, which is the reason sales in Tongzhou are frozen.
Efforts to deal with the real estate bubble that developed in some cities are part of a broader push to wean the economy off the massive stimulus of the past year and engineer a soft landing.
Early results of the push were evident this week when growth for the second quarter came in at 10.3 per cent year-on-year, down from 11.9 per cent in the first quarter.
Beijing could still face a delicate dilemma during the next few months. If property prices fall sharply and that leads to a slump in construction, the government will find itself under pressure to reverse course – at the expense of reflating the bubble.
"There is a risk China will pull back on restructuring the economy if policymakers are concerned headline growth will fall too far," said Brian Jackson at Royal Bank of Canada.
Tongzhou is one of the more extreme examples of the recent property boom. The town, about 20 miles from Beijing, has become a popular option for middle-class families priced out of the capital. The local government has big ambitions – two years ago, it announced plans for a 500-metre tower, which would be 50 per cent bigger than the tallest building in Beijing.
The Heavenly Famous Garden complex shows how quickly the market has run into a wall. Flats next to a new light railway to central Beijing were put on sale last summer and by this April prices had doubled to Rmb24,000 ($3,500, €2,700, £2,300) per square metre. Yet even though a third of the apartments were still unsold, there have been no buyers since the government announced its April clampdown.
One of the country's biggest estate agents, 21st Century, opened an office in Tonghu Avenue in Tongzhou in early May. Since then, it has sold a grand total of one flat, although the list prices on some buildings have slipped 15 per cent.
Even the town planners have had to retreat. The giant tower was reduced in size last month to just 200 metres – so that it did not interfere with air traffic, officials explained.
The Chinese government has been here before. In late 2007 it launched a similar effort to cool the property market, but when the economy started to slow sharply, it reversed course and encouraged people to buy flats.
Paul Cavey, an economist at Macquarie Securities, says that if the government blinks a second time in its efforts to squeeze real estate, it will be setting up its own version of the "Greenspan Put", a perceived attempt by Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, to prop up the securities markets by lowering interest rates. Chinese investors could come to believe they will never lose money on property because the government will always bail them out. The upshot could be a much bigger bubble in the future.
So far, the national picture shows only a very gradual slowdown. House prices fell 0.1 per cent in June from May, according to government figures on 70 cities across the country, while investment in real estate remains strong.
"There is no basis for them to start relaxing policy now," says Andy Rothman, an economist at CLSA in Shanghai.
A soft landing for the housing market, and the economy, is the dominant view among economists in China. Beijing would also lose a lot of credibility if it changed strategy so soon. Wen Jiabao, premier, said on Friday there would be "stability and continuity" in economic policy.
The economy could also benefit from Beijing's ambitious new plans to build public housing for low-income families. Designed to shield the working class from the volatility of the market, the programme could provide a backstop for construction, even if the market remains weak.
But as the situation in Tongzhou shows, there could be much steeper price drops ahead – at least in parts of the country. Some influential newspapers are calling for an end to policy tightening. Local governments, which have close and sometimes incestuous ties with the real estate sector, will lobby hard to prevent a big price drop. The politics of China's property market could easily become more treacherous.
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