中国人大代表王英伟(Wilfred Wong)曾帮助筹备1997年香港回归的工作，是亚洲一位颇具影响力的房地产人物。他是总部位于新加坡的地产投资公司太平星集团(Pacific Star Group)的大中华区执行主席。采访在香港进行。
问：王先生，让我们从香港开始吧，这是一个存在巨大房地产泡沫的城市。
答：这是你的说法。
问：我这么说是因为所有的报纸都在报道这个问题。
答：确实，住宅地产的价格处于高位。但它们仅略超过1997年香港主权回归前夕的水平。香港房价一直昂贵，但我不认为这里存在泡沫。
问：作为太平星大中华区业务的负责人，你也负责香港业务。您仍在这里投资吗？
答：不。我们上一笔交易是在2007年。这里的收益率不够具有吸引力。就房地产开发而言，香港市场非常小，也非常狭窄。这里由恒基兆业(Henderson)和新鸿基(Sun Hung Kai)等一些大型参与者主宰。中国内地更令我们感兴趣。
问：但中国内地也在讨论房地产泡沫问题。
答：不能一概而论。
当然，上海和北京优质地段的写字楼数量有限，因此房价昂贵。
问：但相对于香港，内地房价较低。为什么呢？
答：它们不是国际城市，人民币不能自由兑换，为了避免人民币面临压力并防范房地产投机，中国政府仍限制外资投资房地产。换句话说，政府抑制了房价。一旦这种局面发生变化，房价将大幅上涨。
问：你认为最大的收益机会存在于中国内地吗？
答：我不会那样说。我个人认为，越南和印度等国机会最大。它们的房地产市场非常不成熟，是真正的新兴国家。最为稳定的肯定是东京、香港、新加坡和首尔的房地产市场。中国和马来西亚的发展状况介于两者之间。但不要忘记：中国内地的房地产市场仅发展了20年。那里的土地租赁体系仍不透明。土地所有权仍属于政府。
问：这也适用于欧洲机构投资者吗？
答：对于所有与政府关系不密切的投资者都是如此。如果今天出现了一个有意思的项目，明天就会有一家国有公司夺走它。要参与这样的项目非常困难。这些国有公司拥有资金，大量资金。市场的变化速度，加剧了透明度的相对缺乏。一切令人无法想象。对于养老基金等机构投资者大多漫长的决策程序而言，这个市场简直太快了。
问：具体来说这是什么意思？
答：由市政府负责的许多细节、规则和规章彼此可能完全不同，而且几乎每周都会变化。因此，如果你不是每日都深入第一线，而且关系不是很密切，就很难成功。各地法规差异非常大。
问：举个例子吧。
答：在上海，地下面积不算在容积率之内。因此，在那里你会发现5层的地下室，因为这是免费的。在重庆，由于它是个山城，地下面积是计算在内的。因此你必须知道什么算，什么不算。还有，在一些城市，一旦你完成了地基工作，你就可以开始销售或者预售。但在上海等其它城市则要等到更晚些时候。这对于现金流有着重大影响。
问：外国（欧洲）机构哪里做错了？
答：首先，许多人把中国内地视为一个大市场；他们忽视了区域差异。其次，他们只把目光投向一线大城市，即上海、北京等。其实，天津和杭州等二线城市发展甚至更快，房价也变得几乎一样昂贵。这些投资者错失了这样的机会。
问：这些投资者担心透明度缺乏的风险。中国内地市场何时才能变得更为透明呢？
答：与上世纪90年代初的形势相比，已经发生了很大变化，那时你不得不与政府官员就地块进行双边谈判，没有公开拍卖或招标。
我的预测是：5年后中国内地的房地产市场将更为透明，内部人士的本土优势将逐渐减弱，更多国际参与者将在中国内地立足，就像马来西亚、韩国和台湾的投资者已经在做的那样。目前活跃在这个市场的主要是中国国内的公司，包括香港公司。
问：在注重稳定（收益稳定、表现稳定）的西方养老基金圈子中，亚洲房地产市场仍被视为风险很大。
答：从他们的观点来看，的确是有风险。而从我们的观点来看，高风险必然意味着高增长。举个例子，亚洲租赁合同的期限通常都比较短。这对亚洲的投资机构和投资者是好事。毕竟，人们预期租金会上涨。在西方人眼里，期限较长的租赁合同比较稳定，但从亚洲的视角来看，长期租赁合同风险更大。
问：西方投资者感到不安的另一点是，政府能够出其不意地操纵房地产价格？
答：现实恰好相反。
问：你当然会这么说，因为你是人大代表，不是吗？
答：是的，但这的确是我的观点。事实上，政府在许多方面仍具有影响力是一个优势，正因如此，有很多事情比一切由市场决定更容易预测。在自由市场经济中，泡沫会自动破裂。在中国，政府会积极避免生成泡沫。
设想一下：中国仍是一个社会主义国家，政府是不容许房地产价格过度偏离居民平均收入的。
正因如此，市级政府不再能想拍卖多少土地就拍卖多少，银行不再能想发放多少按揭贷款就发放多少。
问：欧洲投资者迄今不敢投资。他们什么时候会开始投资呢？
答：这只是时间问题。看看世界各地的形势。哪个地区的增长故事最有份量？是亚洲。
问：德国已经把绿色建筑提上了日程。亚洲呢？
答：正处于初步阶段。别忘了，绿色建筑造价高昂。但我们意识到这是环球趋势。比如说，上海几年前把容积率（总建筑面积与总用地面积的比率）上限从6-8降到2.5-4，以避免市中心变成混凝土丛林。相比之下，香港市中心的容积率仍为15，也就是说，每1平方米土地可以建15平方米。
问：中国和新加坡正在天津建设一个“生态城”，这只是开始吗？
答：政府已经起步了，可想而知，他们会继续沿着这条路前进。我们将把我们自己的新城项目规划得尽可能“绿色”。
问：说说这些新城。
答：为推动城市化进程，中国政府鼓励开发商规划和建设完整的城市。这正是我们希望做的。为此我正跟政府协商。我们计划在离上海和北京15-20公里远的地方，在150万-200万平方米的地块上建设一些生态友好城。
要做这样的项目，你需要专业的开发商，因为这些新城将是适宜居住的城镇，有医院、购物中心和写字楼，这样人们就不用经常出远门了。
政府会提供基础设施、街道、铁路交通和路灯。我们将与另一家上市开发公司合作，共同推进这些项目。
问：只有你们公司计划这么做吗？
答：我不知道是不是还有其它公司。天津生态城是一个类似的项目，但它是政府出资的。
我们是百分百私人所有的企业，尽管我的官方职能是人大代表。
问：你要为新城项目寻找投资者吗？
答：是的。我们将成立一家合资公司，希望几年后将其在证交所上市。
迈克•罗德瓦尔德(Maik Rodewald)是英国《金融时报》旗下Pensions & Investment Group欧洲大陆主编
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033788
Wilfred Wong, a deputy of the National Congress of the People's Republic, helped prepare the handover of Hong Kong to Beijing in 1997 and is an influential property figure in Asia. He is executive chairman China, Pacific Star Group, a property investment firm. The interview took place in Hong Kong
Q: Mr Wong, let's start here in Hong Kong, the city of the big real estate bubble.
A: That's what you are saying.
Q: That's what I'm saying, because all the newspapers are writing about it.
A: The prices for residential property are on a high level, yes. But they have only just surpassed the level of 1997, just before the British handed back Hong Kong to the Chinese. Hong Kong has always been expensive, but I don't see a bubble.
Q: As head of Pacific Star's operation in China you are also in charge of Hong Kong. Do you still invest over here?
A: No. We had our last transaction in 2007. The yields are not attractive enough. And as for property developments the market is very small over here, and very narrow. It is dominated by a few big players like Henderson or Sun Hung Kai. For us, China is much more interesting.
Q: But real estate bubbles are also under discussion for China.
A: One can't generalise.
There is of course a limited amount of office buildings in premium locations in Shanghai and Beijing and therefore they are expensive.
Q: But compared to Hong Kong the prices are low. Why?
A: They aren't yet international cities, the renminbi is not freely convertible and the Chinese government still limits foreign real estate investment in order to avoid pressure on the the renminbi and to prevent real estate speculation. In other words, the government suppresses the price of the buildings. As soon as this changes, prices will rise on a big scale.
Q: Do you see the biggest yield opportunities for China?
A: I wouldn't say it like that. I personally see the biggest chances in countries like Vietnam and India. These are very immature markets, real emerging countries. The most stable markets are for sure the real estate markets of Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore and Seoul. China and Malaysia are somewhere in between regarding their development status. But don't forget: the Chinese real estate market has only existed for two decades. The land lease system over here – the country still belongs to the government – is still not transparent.
Q: Does this apply also for European institutional investors?
A: For all investors who are not close. If today there is an interesting project, then tomorrow a state-owned company [will seize] it. To be part of such projects is very difficult. And these state-owned companies have money, a lot of money. The relative lack of transparency is further reinforced by the market's velocity of change. It's beyond imagination. The market is almost too fast for the mostly lengthy decision-making processes of institutional investors like a pension fund.
Q: What does this mean concretely?
A: Many details, rules and regulations – which the city governments are responsible for – can be completely different from each other and change almost weekly. Therefore, if one is not present on a daily basis and interconnected very well, one will hardly be successful. The regulations differ in such a big way.
Q: Give us an example.
A: In Shanghai, everything that is below the ground doesn't count towards your plot ratio. So in Shanghai you'll find five-storey basements, because it's free of charge. In Chongqing, because it's a mountainous city, the underground counts. So you have to know what counts and what doesn't. Also, in some cities you can start selling or pre-sell once you have completed the foundation work, in others like Shanghai much later. That makes a big difference in the cash flow.
Q: What do foreign (European) institutions do wrong?
A: Firstly, many are treating China as one big market; they ignore regional differences. Secondly, they only look at the big cities in the first tier, namely Shanghai, Beijing etc. The second-tier cities like Tianjin, near Beijing, or Hangzhou, near Shanghai, are growing even faster and have become almost as expensive. Those investors miss out on these kind of chances.
Q: Those investors are dreading the risk of lack of transparency. When is the Chinese market going to be more transparent? A: Compared to the situation at the beginning of the nineties, when you still had to negotiate with the officials bilaterally about pieces of land and there were no public auctions or tenders, much has happened.
My forecast: In five years' time the real estate markets of China will be much more transparent, the home advantage of the insiders will weaken gradually and many more international players will gain a foothold in China, as investors from Malaysia, Korea and Taiwan already do. Currently mainly domestic companies are active, including those from Hong Kong.
Q: Among Western pension funds who are mainly oriented towards stability – stable income, stable performance – Asia's real estate markets are still regarded as very risky.
A: From their point of view they are risky indeed. From our point of view the higher risk entails higher growth. One example is the fact of much shorter leasing contracts which are common in Asia. They are a blessing for Asian investment houses and investors as, after all, one expects that the rents will rise. The perceived stability of longer leasing contracts is, from an Asian perspective, rather more risky.
Q: Western investors are also bothered that property prices can be manipulated unpredictably by the government?
A: On the contrary.
Q: That's what you have to say; you are a deputy of the Chinese People's Congress, aren't you?
A: That's correct but that is indeed my opinion. In fact, it's an advantage that the government still has influence on many things, that's why things are easier to predict [than] if you leave it to the market. In a free-market economy a bubble bursts automatically. In China one tries to avoid bubbles actively.
Visualise the following: China is still a socialist country. The government will not allow that property prices will diverge too far away from the average income.
That's why city governments are not allowed any more to auction in a discretionary way as much land as they want and banks are not allowed any more to assign as many mortgage loans.
Q: So far European investors are backing off. When will they start to invest?
A: That's only a question of time. See what's happening worldwide. Which region has the biggest growth story? Asia.
Q: In Germany, green buildings are on the agenda now. What about Asia?
A: It's in its infancy. Don't forget, green buildings are expensive. But we realise that it's a worldwide trend. Shanghai, for example, lowered the maximum plot ratio, ie the gross floor area that you are allowed to build, years ago from 6 to 8 to 2.5 to 4 in order to avoid the inner city becoming a concrete jungle. For the sake of comparison, in the city centre of Hong Kong the plot ratio is still 15. That means that you can build 15 square metres per 1 sqm of land.
Q: There is an Eco-City project in Tianjin that is being created together with Singapore. Is this only the start?
A: The government has entered that path. Therefore one can assume that they will continue with it. We will plan our own projects, the new towns, as green as possible.
Q: What are these new towns all about?
A: In order to push the urbanisation process the Chinese government encourages developers to plan and build entire cities. That's exactly what we want to do and therefore I'm currently negotiating with the government. We plan to build eco-friendly cities on a 1.5m to 2m sq metres stretch of land, 15 to 20km away from Shanghai and Beijing.
For this you need some specialised developers, as the new towns are meant to be proper towns, with hospitals, retail and office buildings, so that people don't have to commute any more.
The government will provide the infrastructure, streets, railway connections and lighting. We will push this forward in collaboration with another listed development company.
Q: Are you the only company that plans to do that?
A: I don't know of any other company. The Eco-City Tianjin certainly is a similar project, but it is financed by the government.
We are a 100 per cent privately owned company, despite my official function as a deputy for the Chinese People's Congress.
Q: Will you be looking for investors for the new towns?
A: Yes. We will establish a joint venture that we would like to list on the stock exchange in a few years' time.
Maik Rodewald is editor-in-chief, continental Europe, Pensions & Investment Group, Financial Times
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