看起来今年全球经济将出现严重放缓。部分国家实施的紧急财政紧缩计划将拖累经济增长。库存调整将如常进行。那些“窃取”未来需求的税收政策——例如美国的“旧车换现金”计划、面向购房者的税收抵免(tax credit)、或是对环保电器的补贴政策——效应将逐渐消退。劳动力市场仍将萎靡不振。对于企业资产负债表、面临收入压力的家庭、金融机构和政府而言，缓慢而痛苦的去杠杆化过程仍将继续。
其结果是，以往过度消费、如今需要去杠杆化的国家政府及其消费者——美国、英国、西班牙、希腊等等——现在需要减少支出、消费和进口。但那些过度储蓄的国家政府及其消费者——中国、亚洲新兴经济体、德国和日本——并没有增加消费。如果全世界处于供应过剩的状态，全球总需求的复苏会相当疲软，从而导致全球经济增长大幅减速。
即使我们能够避开双底衰退，全球经济增长最为现实的图景也是痛苦的。即便今年下半年和2011年初美国增长率达到1.5%，给人的感觉也像是一场衰退，因为失业率有可能进一步攀升，预算赤字增加，房价进一步下跌，银行在抵押贷款和贷款方面的损失上升，同时，保护主义情绪高涨有可能进一步损害中美关系。
在欧元区，到今年年底，经济将接近零增长，因为财政紧缩，股市调整，以及主权、企业债券及银行间流动性利差的上升都将造成重大破坏。市场波动性加大及主权债务风险的上升，还将破坏商业信心与消费者信心，其影响力将超越欧洲的范畴。
那些寄希望于中国能够维持全球经济的人可能会感到失望。作为近年来全球增长引擎的中国经济正逐渐减速，昔日11%以上的增长率已经下降，到今年年底可能会接近7%。这将给中国的出口企业造成伤害，同时不利于亚洲其它地区的出口增长，因为后者也越来越依赖于中国的进口。
从政治角度讲，这第二轮全球经济放缓出现的时机再糟糕不过。在美国，共和党人与民主党人即将退回各自的“大营”，备战11月份的中期大选。与此同时，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)必须再次让纳税人相信，为了给脆弱的经济复苏保驾护航，必须再次增加政府支出——而此刻的民调显示，选民们将美国的债务视为与恐怖主义同样严重的威胁。
因此，总统先生还必须告诉选民，美国经济缺乏安全性的长期解决之道既需要紧缩财政，也需要民众做出牺牲。但在国际上，他面临的问题甚至更为严重。对待为数不多的几个温和派共和党人，奥巴马的手段有限，但最近在多伦多召开的20国集团(G20)峰会显示，他说服欧洲政府抛开财政担忧的能力更差。这些国家似乎不会改变自己的看法：过去一年希腊、西班牙等国出现的状况（以及对更多危机将接踵而至的担忧）要求欧洲人必须学会量入为出。
我们也不应对11月份的G20首尔峰会抱有太高的期望。在前几场峰会上，对全球经济崩盘的共同关切，让各国在一定程度上团结起来。然而，对于未来的真正危险何在，各国不再拥有共识。20国集团内部就政府在国内经济中应扮演何种角色存在分歧，因此很难就任何实质性的细节问题达成协议。
奥巴马的批评者常常嘲笑他唯一的才能就是发表精彩演讲。但就算此言属实，言论也十分重要。增加政府支出的短期计划，以及缩减财政的长期计划，如果总统先生无法阐明它们的必要性，实施起来只会更加困难。至于美国的共和党人，则必须接受一个事实：全球复苏始于国内，必须延长失业救济计划的时间，并为联邦及地方政府提供帮助。
过度储蓄的国家也必须为全球需求贡献自己的一份力量。特别是中国领导层，他们应该意识到，如果不对人民币汇率进行更大幅度的重估，将在国内造成严重后果。试图在危及最优质客户长期健康地情况下，提振中国出口的做法毫无意义。中国政府还必须更快采取行动，刺激国内消费。
欧元区需要财政紧缩，但也需要一定水平的增长——要实现这种增长，欧洲央行(ECB)放宽货币政策是最佳方法。尽早对失去偿付能力的成员国进行债务重组，也应该成为欧元区的议题之一。德国应该将财政巩固计划推迟几年，以增加可支配收入、提振消费。在欧洲以外的地区，日本必须加快经济改革。
这些举措都需要时间。即便所有措施都得到了恰当的执行，全球经济也只会出现缓慢复苏。但如果根本不实施这些措施，全球经济陷入双底衰退、新一轮金融危机卷土重来的风险就会显著上升。各国决策者已经没多少时间可以拖延了。
伊恩•布雷默是美国欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)总裁，著有《自由市场终结》(The End of the Free Market)一书。鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼是纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济学教授、鲁比尼全球经济咨询公司(Roubini Global Economics)董事长，《危机经济学》(Crisis Economics)的作者之一。
译者/管婧
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033710
It looks as if the global economy is heading for a serious slowdown this year. Emergency austerity programmes in some countries will put a drag on growth. Inventory adjustments will run their course. The effects of tax policies that steal demand from the future – such as the US “cash for clunkers” scheme, tax credits for home buyers or cash for green appliances – will fizzle out. Labour market conditions will remain weak. The slow and painful deleveraging of balance sheets and income-challenged households, financial institutions and governments will continue.
The result is governments and consumers that spent too much and now need to deleverage – in the US, Britain, Spain, Greece and elsewhere – will spend, consume and import less. But those governments and consumers that saved too much – in China, emerging Asia, Germany and Japan – are not spending more. In a world of excess supply, the recovery of global aggregate demand will be weak, pushing global growth much lower.
The most realistic scenario for global growth is painful, even if we avoid a double dip. In the US, 1.5 per cent growth in the second half of this year and into 2011 will feel like a recession, given a probable further rise in unemployment, larger budget deficits, a further fall in home prices, larger losses by banks on mortgages and loans, and the risk that a protectionist surge will further damage relations with China.
In the eurozone, growth will be closer to zero by the end of this year, as fiscal austerity and stock market corrections, along with rises in sovereign, corporate and interbank liquidity spreads, take their toll. Increases in volatility and sovereign debt risk will also undermine business and consumer confidence in ways that move beyond Europe.
Those hoping that China can keep the global economy afloat are likely to be disappointed. The world's leading growth engine in recent years is slowing, from 11 per cent-plus towards a 7 per cent rate by year's end. That will damage China's exporters, while spelling bad news for export-growth in the rest of Asia, which increasingly relies on Chinese imports too.
Politically, this second global slowdown could not have come at a more difficult time. In the US, Democrats and Republicans will soon retreat to their corners to prepare for November's mid-term elections. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama must again persuade America's taxpayers that a new surge in government spending is needed to protect a fragile recovery – and at a moment when voters are telling pollsters that America's debt is as great a threat as terrorism.
So the president must also tell voters that the longer-term solution to America's economic insecurity involves both austerity and sacrifice. But abroad he faces an even larger problem. Mr Obama has limited leverage with the few remaining moderate Republicans, but the recent Group of 20 summit in Toronto showed him even less able to persuade European governments to shrug off fiscal worries. These countries seem unlikely to shift from their view that events of the past year in Greece, Spain and elsewhere – and fears of further crises to come – demand that the continent must learn to live within its means.
Nor should we expect much from the next G20 meeting in Seoul in November. A common fear of global meltdown provided some degree of unity at previous meetings. Yet, there is no longer international consensus on where tomorrow's true dangers lie. Differing assumptions within the group over the proper role of government in a domestic economy make agreement on the details involving anything of substance very difficult.
Mr Obama's critics often deride him as a man whose talents are limited to his fine speeches. Yet even if that were true, words matter. Plans to boost government spending in the near term, and to embrace austerity in the longer term, will only become more difficult if the president fails to explain the need for them. For their part, America's Republicans need to accept that the path to a global recovery begins at home, with extended unemployment insurance and help for state and local governments.
Countries that save too much must also do their part for global demand. In particular, the Chinese leadership should recognise that failure to allow a more substantive revaluation of its currency will have serious consequences at home. It makes little sense to try to boost China's local exporters while undermining the longer-term health of their best customers. Beijing must also move much more quickly to boost China's domestic consumption.
The eurozone needs fiscal austerity, but it also needs a level of growth best provided by an easing of monetary policy from the European Central Bank. Early debt-restructuring of insolvent members should also be on the agenda. Germany should postpone its fiscal consolidation for a couple of years to boost disposable income and consumption. Outside Europe, Japan must accelerate economic reforms.
These steps will take time. Even if all are undertaken properly, global growth will recover only slowly. But if they are not undertaken at all, the risk of a global double dip, and a new financial crisis, will grow sharply. Policymakers cannot keep kicking the can down the road for much longer.
Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and author of The End of the Free Market. Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at the Stern School at New York University, chairman of Roubini Global Economics and co-author of Crisis Economics
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