2010年9月30日

全球必须协力化解汇率战争 Currency wars in an era of chronically weak demand

 

"我们正处在一场国际汇率战争之中,全球货币正普遍走软。这对我们构成了威胁,因为它削弱了我们的竞争力。"巴西财政部长吉多•曼特加(Guido Mantega)的这些抱怨完全可以理解。在需求匮乏的时代,储备货币的发行国实施扩张性货币政策,而非发行国则以干预汇率作为回应。而那些既不属于前者、也不愿效仿后者的国家(比如巴西)则发现本币大幅升值。其后果令它们担忧。

发生这种汇率冲突并不是第一次。25年前,也就是1985年9月,法国、西德、日本、美国与英国政府在纽约的广场饭店(Plaza Hotel)举行会议,达成了共同诱导美元贬值的协议。更早一些时候,在1971年8月,美国总统理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)实施了"尼克松冲击"措施,包括征收10%的进口附加税,并结束美元与黄金的相互兑换。上述两件事都反映出美国渴望美元贬值。今天,美国仍然怀有同样的渴望。但这一次的情况有所不同:关注焦点已不再是日本这样恭顺的盟国,而是下一个全球超级大国——中国。两强相争,很容易伤及围观者。

有三大因素,与眼下的汇率战争相关。

首先,由于这场危机,发达国家正蒙受需求长期匮乏之苦。全球6大高收入经济体——美国、日本、德国、法国、英国与意大利——中,没有一个国家今年第二季度的国内生产总值(GDP)恢复到2008年第一季度的水平。与以往的趋势水平相比,这些国家目前的经济增速至多降低了10%。供应过量的一个信号,是美国与欧元区的核心通胀率已经降至1%左右:通货紧缩正在向我们挥手致意。这些国家希望实现出口拉动型增长。贸易逆差国(例如美国)和顺差国(例如日本、德国)都是如此。然而,整体来看,只有新兴经济体转向经常帐户赤字,才有可能实现这一目标。

其次,私人部门正在朝这个方向运转。华盛顿国际金融研究所(Institute for International Finance)在4月份的预测中指出,今年净流入新兴国家的外来私人资金将达到7460亿美元(见图表)。这些新兴国家净流出的私人资金为5660亿美元,能够部分抵消上述流入。尽管如此,由于新兴国家还有着3200亿美元的经常账户盈余以及适度的官方资金流入,在没有政府干涉的情况下,新兴国家仍将实现5350亿美元的外部收支盈余。但若不加干涉,这种情况也不可能发生:经常账户必须平衡资本净流动。调整将通过提高汇率进行。最终,新兴国家将出现经常账户赤字,来自高收入国家的私人资金净流入,将为这种赤字买单。事实上,这正是我们所期待发生的。

最后,外汇储备的不断累积,仍然在阻碍这种自然的调整过程。这些数字代表着官方资金外流(见图表)。1999年1月至2008年7月期间,全球官方外汇储备从1.615万亿美元,增加到7.534万亿美元——增加了5.918万亿美元,令人震惊。或许有人会说,这种增长是经历了早先危机后的一种自我保护。的确,在这场危机中,外汇储备消耗不少:从2008年7月到2009年2月,全球外汇储备减少了4720亿美元。无疑,这帮助那些没有储备货币的国家缓冲了危机影响。但所使用的储备总额,仅占危机前水平的6%。除此之外,2009年2月到2010年5月间,外汇储备又增长了1.324万亿美元,总额接近8.385万亿美元。重商主义未死!

 

中国绝对是最明显的干预者:自2009年2月以来,占到了这些外汇累积的40%。到2010年6月,中国外汇储备达到了2.45万亿美元,占全球总量的30%,在其国内生产总值(GDP)中所占比例,攀升到了50%的惊人水平。这种累积肯定会被视为一种巨额出口补贴。

在人类历史上,从来没有一个超级大国的政府,会借给另一个超级大国这么多钱。一些人辩称,这种汇率管理方式不是操纵(与美国国会的观点相左),因为调整可以通过"国内成本与价格的变动"进行。周二出版的英国《金融时报》上,就刊登了美国西部信托公司(Trust Company of the West)科玛尔•斯里库-马尔(Komal Sri-Kumar)的类似观点。如果不是因为中国下了力气、并成功遏制了其干预行为自然会导致的货币及通胀影响,那么,这种论点会更具说服力。与此同时,新兴国家向着经常账户赤字方向、不可避免的调整,正转移至那些对资金流入具有吸引力、同时又不愿(或无力)对外汇市场实施必要规模干预的国家。可怜的巴西!甚至,我们可能正目睹又一场新兴市场金融危机的发令枪响起?

众所周知,尼克松时期的财政部长约翰•康纳利(John Connally)曾告诉欧洲人,美元是"我们的货币,但是是你们的问题"。中国也作出了同样的回应。由于没有作出汇率调整,我们正看到某种形式的"货币战争":本质上,美国正寻求让中国通胀,而中国则试图让美国通缩。双方都坚信自己是对的;但都没有获得预期的效果;世界其它国家则受到了牵连。

不难看出中国的观点:它正不顾一切地避免自己心目中日本在《广场协议》(Plaza Accord)后的悲惨命运。当初,由于汇率飙升损害了出口竞争力,加之美国强迫其削减经常账户盈余,日本选择了规模巨大的货币扩张,而不是亟需的结构性改革。随之产生的泡沫,促成了上世纪90年代"失落的十年"。曾经的天下无敌,就此陷入了萧条。对于中国来说,任何这样的结果都将是一场灾难,这一点不言而喻。与此同时,如果没有从高收入国家向其它国家的巨额净资本流入,我们很难设想全球经济会有一个稳健的结构。不过,如果全球最大、且最成功的新兴经济体也是最大的资金净输出国,我们也很难想象这种情况会发生,而且可以持续。

我们所需要的,是找到这些亟需进行的全球调整的路径。这将不仅需要合作的意愿——眼下似乎严重匮乏,还需要在国内与国际改革方面更丰富的想象力。我很想做一个乐观主义者。但我不是:一个充斥着以邻为壑政策的世界,最不可能会有美好的结局。

译者/何黎

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034874

 

 

"We're in the midst of an international currency war, a general weakening of currency. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness." This complaint by Guido Mantega, Brazil's finance minister, is entirely understandable. In an era of deficient demand, issuers of reserve currencies adopt monetary expansion and non-issuers respond with currency intervention. Those, like Brazil, who are not among the former and prefer not to copy the latter, find their currencies soaring. They fear the results.

This is not the first time for such currency conflicts. In September 1985, now 25 years ago, the governments of France, West Germany, Japan, the US and the UK met at the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed to push for depreciation of the US dollar. Earlier still, in August 1971, the US president Richard Nixon imposed the "Nixon shock", imposing a 10 per cent import surcharge and ending dollar convertibility into gold. Both events reflected the US desire to depreciate the dollar. It has the same desire today. But this time is different: the focus of attention is not a compliant ally, such as Japan, but the world's next superpower: China. When such elephants fight, bystanders are likely to be trampled.

Here there are three facts, relevant to today's currency wars.

First, as a result of the crisis, the developed world is suffering from chronically deficient demand. In none of the six biggest high-income economies – the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK and Italy – was gross domestic product in the second quarter of this year back to where it was in the first quarter of 2008. These economies are now operating at up to 10 per cent below their past trends. One indication of the excess supply is the decline in core inflation to close to 1 per cent in the US and the eurozone: deflation beckons. These countries hope for export-led growth. This is true both of those with trade deficits (such as the US) and of those with surpluses (such as Germany and Japan). In aggregate, however, this can only happen if emerging economies shift towards current account deficit.

Second, private sectors are working in just this direction. In its April forecasts (soon to be updated), the Washington-based Institute for International Finance suggested that this year the net flow of external private finance into the emerging countries would be $746bn (see chart). This would be partially offset by a net private outflow from these countries of $566bn. Nevertheless, with a current account surplus of $320bn as well, and modest official capital inflows, the external balance of the emerging world, without official intervention, would be a surplus of $535bn. But, without the intervention, that could not happen: the current account must balance the net capital flow. The adjustment would go via a higher exchange rate. In the end, the emerging world would run a current account deficit financed by a net inflow of private capital from the high-income countries. Indeed, that is precisely what one would expect to happen.

Third, this natural adjustment continues to be thwarted by the build-up of foreign currency reserves,. These sums represent an official capital outflow (see chart). Between January 1999 and July 2008, the world's official reserves rose from $1,615bn to $7,534bn – a staggering increase of $5,918bn. This increase was, one might argue, a form of self-insurance after earlier crises. Indeed, reserves were used up during this crisis: they shrank by $472bn between July 2008 and February 2009. No doubt, this helped countries without reserve currencies cushion the impact. But this use of reserves was a mere 6 per cent of the pre-crisis level. Moreover, between February 2009 and May 2010, reserves rose by another $1,324bn, to reach close to $8,385bn. Mercantilism lives!

 

China is overwhelmingly the dominant intervener, accounting for 40 per cent of the accumulation since February 2009. By June 2010, its reserves had reached $2,450bn, 30 per cent of the world total and a staggering 50 per cent of its own GDP. This accumulation must be viewed as a huge export subsidy.

Never in human history can the government of one superpower have lent so much to that of another. Some argue – Komal Sri-Kumar of the Trust Company of the West, in Tuesday's Financial Times, for example – that such management of the exchange rate is not manipulative, contrary to views in the US Congress, since adjustment can occur via "changes in domestic costs and prices". This argument would be more convincing if China had not worked hard and successfully to suppress the natural monetary and so inflationary consequences of its intervention. In the meantime, the inevitable adjustment towards current account deficits in the emerging world is being shifted on to countries that are both attractive to capital inflows and unwilling or unable to intervene in the currency markets on the needed scale. Poor Brazil! Could we even be seeing the starting gun for the next emerging market financial crisis?

John Connally, Nixon's secretary of the Treasury, famously told the Europeans that the dollar "is our currency, but your problem". The Chinese respond in kind. In the absence of currency adjustments, we are seeing a form of monetary warfare: in effect, the US is seeking to inflate China, and China to deflate the US. Both sides are convinced they are right; neither is succeeding; and the rest of the world suffers.

It is not hard to see China's point of view: it is desperate to avoid what it views as the dire fate of Japan after the Plaza accord. With export competitiveness damaged by its soaring currency and pressured by the US to reduce its current account surplus, Japan chose not the needed structural reforms, but a huge monetary expansion, instead. The consequent bubble helped deliver the "lost decade" of the 1990s. Once a world-beater, Japan fell into the doldrums. For China, self-evidently, any such outcome would be a catastrophe. At the same time, it is difficult to envisage a robust configuration of the world economy without large net capital flows from the high-income countries to the rest. Yet it is also hard to imagine that happening, on a sustainable basis, if the world's biggest and most successful emerging economy is also its largest net exporter of capital.

What is needed is a route to these needed global adjustments. That will demand not just a will to co-operate that now seems sorely lacking, but greater imagination about both domestic and international reforms. I would like to be optimistic. But I am not: a world of beggar-my-neighbour policy is most unlikely to end well.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034874/en

宗庆后成中国首富 身家120亿美元 Drinks chief heads mainland China rich list

 

曾与法国达能(Danone)集团发生争执、酿成中国最受瞩目的外商投资纠纷的中国软饮料巨头宗庆后,以120亿美元的身家被评为中国大陆首富。

《胡润百富榜》(Hurun Rich List)显示,宗庆后在这份收录中国亿万富翁的排行榜上排在首位。该排行榜的进榜门槛为身家10亿元人民币,今年共有1363人进榜,高于去年的1000人。十年前,《胡润百富榜》开启了为中国最富人群排名的先河。

宗庆后120亿美元的身家意味着,他在《福布斯》(Forbes)杂志编制的全球富豪榜上能够勉强跻身于前50名的行列。

但《胡润百富榜》创始人胡润(Rupert Hoogewerf)表示,若纯以人数计,中国的亿万富翁很可能是世界各国中最多的。“根据我们掌握的资料,今年中国共有189名身家在十亿美元以上的富翁。但你也可以有把握的认为,我们这次收录的人数又遗漏了至少一半。这就意味着,中国拥有400至500名身家在十亿美元以上的富翁。”

宗庆后是中国领先软饮料公司娃哈哈(Wahaha)的掌门人。该公司近期刚与前合资伙伴达能结束旷日持久的全球诉讼战,并基本获胜。根据9月29日在上海发布的《胡润百富榜》,还有一名饮料业巨头与宗庆后一起跻身榜单前五名。这一事实既突显出某些中国消费品品牌的强大实力,又突显出在榜单前列中,制造商所占比例出人意料的出现上升,挤走了一些房地产巨头。

胡润表示:“今年房地产大亨没有进入榜单前五名,这是十年来的头一次。”他指出,在榜单中名列第四的梁稳根,是靠销售建筑设备、而不是靠房地产投机赚得万贯家财的。

负责编制该榜单的《胡润报告》(Hurun Report)在一份声明中表示:“在65岁的‘饮料王’宗庆后的管理下,娃哈哈已成长为中国占主导地位的饮料企业,员工总数达3万人,今年的营业利润预计将达15亿美元。”去年,宗庆后在该榜单上排在第12位。

达能曾在从萨摩亚到英属维尔京群岛的一系列诉讼与仲裁程序中与宗庆后展开斗争。最后达能于去年决定,把自己在合资企业中所持51%股份以仅3亿欧元的价格出售给宗庆后——尽管达能在斯德哥尔摩一个仲裁庭赢得对自己有利的“部分裁决”。

达能当时指控称,管理合资企业36家子公司的宗庆后在经营平行业务,对该合资企业构成了竞争。

译者/汪洋

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034889

 

 

Zong Qinghou, the Chinese soft drinks magnate who clashed with the French Danone group in one of the country’s highest-profile foreign investment disputes, has been named the mainland’s richest man with a personal fortune of $12bn.

According to the Hurun Rich List, which pioneered the ranking of China’s wealthiest people a decade ago, Mr Zong tops a list of 1,363 renminbi billionaires in China – up from 1,000 last year.

Mr Zong’s $12bn fortune means that he barely makes the top 50 richest people, when measured against the global list compiled by Forbes magazine.

But for sheer numbers, said Rupert Hoogewerf, the Hurun founder, China probably has the most billionaires of any country. “We already know of 189 US dollar billionaires in China this year, but you can safely say that we have missed at least half again, meaning there are between 400 and 500 US dollar billionaires.”

Mr Zong heads Wahaha, China’s leading soft drinks company, which recently emerged largely victorious from its protracted global legal battle with Danone, its former joint venture partner. Mr Zong was one of two drinks makers in the top five of the rich list, released in Shanghai on Wednesday, underlining the strength of some Chinese consumer goods brands, and an unexpected rise in the proportion of manufacturers at the top of the list, at the expense of property developers.

Mr Hoogewerf said: “2010 is the first time in 10 years a property tycoon has not made the top five.” He noted that Liang Wen’gen, China’s fourth wealthiest man, made his fortune from selling construction equipment rather than from property speculation.

“‘Drinks King’ Zong, 65, has overseen Wahaha’s rise to become China’s dominant drinks business with expected profits this year of US$1.5bn and 30,000 employees,” the Hurun Report, which compiles the list, said in a statement. He rose from 12th place last year.

After battling Mr Zong in litigation and arbitration proceedings from Samoa to the British Virgin Islands, Danone last year decided to sell its 51 per cent share of the joint venture to Mr Zong for only €300m – in spite of winning a partial ruling in its favour from a Stockholm arbitration panel.

Danone had alleged that Mr Zong, who managed the joint venture’s 36 subsidiaries, ran parallel operations that competed against the joint venture.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034889/en

Buffett Takes Stock--New York Times Magazine 1990

BUFFET TAKES STOCK
By L. J. Davis; L. J. Davis, a contributing editor of Harper's Magazine, writes about business from New York.
Published: April 1, 1990
(Source: L. J. Davis, "Buffett Takes Stock," New York Times Magazine ,April 1, 1990, p. 16.)
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CE6D9173BF932A35757C0A966958260&ref=warren_e_buffett&pagewanted=all

HE ALWAYS EXPECTED THAT HE would one day be rich, Warren E. Buffett says, although it is doubtful that the man now known as the Oracle of Omaha had any inkling of just how rich he would actually become. Last year, Forbes Magazine estimated his personal fortune to be in excess of $4 billion. With Berkshire Hathaway, a one-time textile manufacturer, as his vehicle, Buffett at age 59 has achieved an enviable standing in the world of finance. Laurence A. Tisch, the chairman of Loews Corporation and president of CBS, and himself no slouch in these matters, says that Buffett has had ''the most brilliant career in American investment history.''

Warren Buffett has been a student of the stock market since he was 9 years old: ''I used to chart all kinds of stock, the more numbers the better.'' When he was in his rebellious stage in high school, he recalls, ''I shorted a few shares of American Telephone because I knew that all my teachers owned it. They thought I knew about stocks, and I thought if I shorted A.T.&T., I would terrorize them about their retirement.''

It was one of the very few times that Warren Buffett has allowed emotion to dictate an investment. His discipline as an investor, his devotion to a rational, coherent strategy, are legendary. As a shrewd purchaser of stock and, on occasion, whole companies, he has compiled a record of unparalleled success. Yet in many ways, he is very different from the popular image of the financial titan.

With his off-the-rack suits and unruly, thinning hair, Buffett resembles nothing so much as a mildly eccentric clerk in a discount shoe store. He lives in a middle-class Omaha neighborhood in the house that he bought in 1958 for $31,500. He collects model trains. In fact, he has sometimes been portrayed as the quintessential cornfed, ''aw-shucks'' hick. Nothing could be further from the truth. Buffett, who reads the philosopher Bertrand Russell for relaxation, has a wit and erudition seldom encountered in his profession.

There is about him a remarkable sense of play, of business as an intensely enjoyable game. ''I'm the luckiest guy in the world in terms of what I do for a living,'' he says. ''No one can tell me to do things I don't believe in or things I think are stupid.'' In the age of the quick buck, he has been free to pursue long-term investments in well-run, responsible companies. In the process, he has acquired a reputation for prudence and probity. ''Warren wants to succeed,'' says Louis Lowenstein, head of Columbia University's Center for Law and Economic Studies, ''but he's not greedy.''

Within the investment community, Buffett is renowned as a follower of Benjamin Graham, widely regarded as the father of modern securities analysis. Graham held that the stock market is a highly irrational place where most participants brainlessly purchase stocks as prices rise and brainlessly sell them as prices fall. The disciplined, rational Graham investor seeks out stocks - Buffett calls them ''sleeping beauties'' - that are selling substantially below book value (redefined by Graham to eliminate good will and accounts receivable). When the market eventually corrects its mistake, the investor takes his profit.

Over the years, Buffett has rung a number of changes on the Graham methodology. For example, he has made major investments in companies with no net worth whatsoever. Recently, however, he has wandered further from the master's footsteps, attracting unaccustomed criticism. Specifically, Buffett has emerged as a so-called ''white squire,'' an investor who purchases large blocks of stock in companies threatened by takeover and receives unique financial concessions in return. He has also raised capital for Berkshire Hathaway by issuing zero-coupon bonds, which give him a handsome tax break on interest payments he will probably never make.

''Ben would not have bought any of the stocks we own now,'' Buffett says. Ironically, Graham would undoubtedly have avoided buying Berkshire Hathaway shares as well. As of the first week of March, the company was trading in the vicinity of $7,200, down by more than $1,500 from its peak last year but still the most expensive listing on the New York Stock Exchange. At that price, Berkshire's stock fetches 1.8 times book value. Buffett says that book value does not accurately reflect the true worth of any holding, but it remains extremely unlikely that Benjamin Graham would have invested two cents in the company of his most prominent disciple.

VISITORS TO WARREN BUFFETT's offices on the 14th floor of a plain-vanilla office building on the edge of downtown Omaha are greeted by a small porcelain plaque inscribed with the words: ''A fool and his money are soon invited everywhere.'' Buffett's total staff consists of a chief financial officer, four accountants, two secretaries, a part-time treasurer and a personal assistant, Gladys Kaiser, who has been with him for 22 years.

Scattered about Buffett's own office, a modest space with walls of emerald green, are miniature sculptures of bulls and bears. Under a glass dome rests an antique Edison stock ticker, but there are no electronic calculators, no Quotrons, no computers. ''I am a computer,'' he says.

His ''data base'' includes copies of his first income-tax returns - they date back to 1944, when he was 13. At the time, he ran two paper routes and published a racing tip sheet called ''Stableboy Selections.'' He has also preserved a 1931 letter written by his grandfather, Ernest H. Buffett. Warren's father, Howard, had recently opened a stock brokerage. In the letter, Grandfather Buffett advised his fellow Rotarians not to patronize the new firm. ''He said his son was a nice young fellow,'' Warren Buffett explains, ''but he didn't really know his stocks.''

The firm prospered nonetheless, providing young Warren, a frequent visitor, with an early introduction to the mysteries of the marketplace. By the time he was 8 or 9, he was marking up stock prices on the blackboard at the local office of Harris Upham.

''I was always interested in statistics,'' recalls Buffett, who developed a precocious and lasting taste for horse handicapping. ''There are a lot of similarities between handicapping and investing. There are speed handicappers and class handicappers. The speed handicapper says you try and figure out how fast the horse can run. A class handicapper says a $10,000 horse will beat a $6,000 horse. Ben Graham said, 'Buy any stock cheap enough and it will work.' That was the speed handicapper. And other people said, 'Buy the best company, and it will work.' That's class handicapping.''

In 1942, Buffett's father entered his first Congressional race. ''He was such an improbable candidate,'' Buffett says, ''that neither he nor his opponent took him seriously. On election night, he wrote out his concession statement, went to bed at nine o'clock and woke up the next morning to find he'd won.''

The family moved to Fredericksburg, Va. ''I was miserably homesick,'' Buffett recalls. ''I told my parents I couldn't breathe. I told them not to worry about it, to get a good night's sleep themselves, and I'd just stand up all night.'' He describes his classroom performance as ''miserable,'' but his business thrived. He established a company that placed pinball machines in the capital's barbershops. By the time he was 20, he had $9,800 in cash.

At his father's urging, Buffett attended the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He lasted two years. ''I didn't feel I was learning that much,'' he says. ''Nebraska called, Wharton repelled.'' He finished his undergraduate education at the University of Nebraska, then applied to the Harvard Business School. ''The interview in Chicago took about 10 minutes,'' he says, ''and they threw me back in the water.''

Buffett had read a book entitled ''The Intelligent Investor,'' by Benjamin Graham - a popular version of ''Security Analysis,'' his classic study written with David L. Dodd. ''I don't want to sound like a religious fanatic or anything, but it really did get me,'' Buffett says. Graham was teaching at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business. Buffett enrolled.

The Graham method of value investing had one characteristic that was not shared by many market theories: an extraordinary portion of the time, it worked. To Graham, the actual business of a company was immaterial. The difference between its market price and its discounted book value was everything, providing an all-important Margin of Safety that would protect the original investment and insure future profits. In the short run, the market was irrational, but in the long run it would detect the discrepancy between the price of a stock and the underlying value of the actual company. ''It was sort of a no-brainer,'' says Buffett.

Graham practiced what he preached at a small Wall Street investment firm, Graham-Newman. Buffett was eager to join him there, and Graham eventually capitulated. ''It was easier than being pestered,'' says Buffett. The new man soon discovered that he and Graham had somewhat differing views of practical investing: ''Ben was not interested in going as deeply into corporate analysis as I might be.''

In 1956, two years after Buffett joined him, Graham wound up the business and retired; over the years, his investors had received a return of 19 percent, compounded annually - almost precisely the figure he had predicted. And Buffett returned to Omaha.

AT BISHOP'S LODGE IN Santa Fe, N.M., last September, two dozen business luminaries from around the nation gathered at Warren Buffett's behest to share four days of fun and games. Among those in attendance: Donald R. Keough, president of the Coca-Cola Company, of which Berkshire Hathaway owns 7 percent; Thomas S. Murphy and Daniel B. Burke, chairman and president, respectively, of Capital Cities/ABC (Berkshire owns 17 percent); Katharine Graham and her son, Donald, principal owners of The Washington Post (Berkshire has 13 percent).

The high point of the festivities came with a re-enactment of the Time-Warner merger. Murphy played Time's president, Nicholas J. Nicholas Jr., while Burke took the part of chairman J. Richard Munro. Katharine Graham was the ghost of Clare Boothe Luce, the wife of Time's founder, Henry Luce. And John J. Byrne, chairman of Fireman's Fund Insurance Company, served as moderator amid heckling and catcalls from a knowledgeable audience that included Laurence Tisch.

Buffett's biannual get-togethers originated with a reunion of 11 of Benjamin Graham's former students and associates and their mentor in 1968. ''They were moderately well to do then,'' says Buffett. ''They're all rich now. They haven't invented Federal Express or anything like that. They just set one foot in front of the other. Ben put it all down. It's just so simple.'' Over the years, the gatherings have broadened to reflect the host's wide circle of acquaintances, but not the growing size of his purse. Everyone goes Dutch.

When Warren Buffett returned to Omaha from his stint with Graham in New York, he was 25 years old, married with two children, and his personal fortune stood at $140,000. ''I thought it was enough to retire on,'' he says. ''I had no master plan.'' Soon, however, he was approached by family members in need of investment advice. Buffett established a partnership, informing his investors: ''I'll run it like I run my own money, and I'll take part of the losses and part of the profits. And I won't tell you what I'm doing.''

Over the following 13 years, Buffett achieved a compounded annual return of 29.5 percent, and the total fund, including some investments from new partners, grew from $105,000 to $105 million. Buffett's own wealth rose to $25 million.

Among the new partners was a local physician, who contacted Buffett in 1957, listened with seeming indifference to his ideas - and then pledged a $100,000 investment. When Buffett asked why, the doctor replied: ''Well, you remind me of a fellow named Charlie Munger.''

Two years later, Buffett actually met Charles T. Munger, an Omaha native six years his senior who had been practicing law in Los Angeles. The two became fast friends and began doing business together in 1967. ''It was never a formal partnership,'' says Munger, ''but we were partners.'' (In 1978, he became vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.) Munger was not an unqualified admirer of the theories of Benjamin Graham. ''I thought a lot of them were just madness,'' he says. ''They ignored relevant facts.'' Buffett was still learning to adapt Graham's principles to the new realities of the marketplace. ''I evolved,'' he says. ''I didn't go from ape to human or human to ape in a nice, even manner.'' He searched for bargains and, as he puts it, ''I had the misfortune to find some.'' Specifically, Buffett bought a struggling Nebraska farm-equipment manufacturer and a third-rate Baltimore department store. ''When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics,'' he says, ''it is the reputation of the business that survives.''

A more lasting Graham-inspired investment was the 1965 purchase of Berkshire Hathaway, a New Bedford, Mass., company that had once spun a quarter of the nation's fine cotton. The company sold for about $12 a share but had a book value of more than $19 a share. The difference represented Graham's Margin of Safety, and Buffett needed every dollar of it as the textile industry continued its inexorable decline.

But elsewhere in his investment strategy, Buffett had begun to analyze companies in a highly un-Grahamlike fashion. Instead of relying simply on book value, he studied a company's management and performance. Rather than simply pursuing bargains per se - a mediocre company at a very cheap price, for example - ''I became very interested in buying a wonderful business at a moderate price.''

Buffett's first great coup in that regard was the American Express Company. In 1963, devastated by a scandal involving a large quantity of nonexistent salad oil, the company saw its stock price plummet from around $60 to $34. It was hardly a Ben Graham investment situation: facing a $60 million loss, American Express effectively had no net worth. There was no Margin of Safety.

''But as far as I was concerned,'' Buffett says, ''that $60 million was a dividend they'd mailed to the stockholders, and it got lost in the mail. I mean, if they'd declared a $60 million dividend, everybody wouldn't have thought the world was going to hell.''

A careful scrutiny of the company revealed that American Express virtually owned the nation's traveler's check business and possessed by far the strongest credit card, assets that were entirely unaffected by the scandal. Together, the check and card businesses constituted an unassailable franchise - what Buffett calls ''a castle with a moat around it,'' his new Margin of Safety. A franchise, as Buffett defines it, consists of a product or service that people will seek out and ask for by name, even if it is priced above the competition. ''It ain't a wonderful business if it doesn't have a franchise,'' he says.

As a rule, Buffett had never committed more than a quarter of the partnership's capital to a single investment, but he broke that rule now, pouring $13 million - 40 percent of the capital - into American Express. He sold out two years later for a $20 million profit.

Buffett found many an opportunity in the mid-1960's. ''I went from flower to flower in those days,'' he recalls. But as the decade waned, and the stock market boomed, the opportunities grew fewer.

OVER THE YEARS, WARREN Buffett has developed his own very distinctive modus operandi. Yet he does little, he says, that the average serious investor cannot do for himself. His investment ideas, in the main, come from reading annual reports, the financial press and trade magazines. He determines the ''intrinsic value'' of a business by judging management's ability to allocate capital intelligently and by analyzing the outlook for the company's products and its industry. He arrives at the dollar value of the business by computing its future cash flow, allowing for inflation and interest rates.

Herewith, a sampling of Buffett's insights:

Knowing the Company. ''We don't buy things we don't understand.'' Buffett says he has trouble getting a fix on cyclical and capital-intensive industries such as automobile manufacturing. ''If I'd been right on Ford, I'd have made a lot of money. Because I didn't know the right price to pay for Ford in 1980 or 1982, I probably don't know the right price to pay now. The difference is that I know I don't know.''

Efficient Market Theory. This theory, widely taught in business schools, holds that the market already knows everything of consequence about a company and has priced its stock accordingly; it is therefore a waste of time for the individual investor to undertake his own study of a business. Buffett regards the market as a highly inefficient place. ''I think it's fascinating how the ruling orthodoxy can cause a lot of people to think the earth is flat. Investing in a market where people believe in efficiency is like playing bridge with someone who's been told it doesn't do any good to look at the cards.''

When Not to Buy. ''For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values. What doesn't work is when you start doing things that you don't understand or because they worked last week for somebody else. The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it's going up.''

Index Funds. The investment community has devised instruments, called index funds, that are often based on the collective performance of a basket of companies. ''You don't try and figure out who has the best business and who are the best managers. It's a know-nothing approach, essentially. The people who sell index funds, though, don't charge like it's a know-nothing approach.''

Value Investing. ''The fact that it's so simple makes people reluctant to teach it. If you've gone and gotten a Ph.D. and spent years learning how to do all kinds of tough things mathematically, to have it come back to this is - it's like studying for the priesthood and finding out that the Ten Commandments were all you needed.''

IN 1969, AS THE BULL market wound down, Warren Buffett informed his investors that he was winding up the partnership. His stated reasons were several. The partnership's capital had grown so large that small investments were no longer reasonable, and he could find no big investments to his liking. In addition, the market was too speculative for his taste. ''I didn't know how to be a hero anymore,'' he says. Whereas he had once been a Niagara of new ideas, he was now an eyedropper. But he had other reasons for abandoning the partnership.

''I did not want to be running any vehicle where my implicit obligation was to earn the highest return I could every year,'' Buffett says. He wanted to be free to make long-term investments. Moreover, there was a personal factor involved. ''I was developing relationships with the operating people in our owned businesses,'' he says, ''and I simply didn't want to have their duration determined by whether I got an exceptionally good bid that morning.''

From that point on, his principal investment vehicle would be Berkshire Hathaway, in which he and his wife, Susan, eventually had a 45 percent interest. As chairman and principal stockholder, Buffett could invest where and when he pleased, with money provided by the insurance companies that Berkshire had begun to buy in 1967.

Insurance companies had a special charm for an investor like Warren Buffett. He could deploy the float - money generated by the insurance premiums that remained on the books until claims were paid, which might take a very long time indeed. (Soon he would also have access to another kind of float, generated by Blue Chip Stamps. Buffett and Munger were buying the company, whose float was created by the lapse of time between the purchase of stamps by merchants and the claiming of merchandise by customers.) Over the next two decades, Berkshire acquired eight companies that Buffett speaks of as the ''Sainted Seven Plus One.'' The companies, with an estimated collective worth of $1.6 billion, are a distinctly mixed lot, but they share three features: excellent management, superior products and a franchise in their industries. Among others, Berkshire owns Borsheim's, an Omaha volume jeweler; See's Candies, a West Coast confectionery chain; The Buffalo News, and Fechheimer Brothers, a Cincinnati manufacturer of uniforms.

In 1983, Buffett paid $55 million for 90 per cent of the Nebraska Furniture Mart, the largest discount home-furnishings store in the nation. Three years later, Berkshire bought the Scott & Fetzer Company, a Cleveland conglomerate with three operations: a manufacturing group, whose products include air compressors; the Kirby Company, and World Book.

While Berkshire was acquiring its portfolio of companies, it was also acquiring an impressive portfolio of stocks. In 1973, Buffett paid $10.6 million for 9 percent of the Washington Post Company. By his calculation, the company was worth between $400 and $500 million, but the market valued its stock at only $100 million. ''The people selling it to us were institutions,'' Buffett notes. ''They probably would have come to the same conclusion about the intrinsic value that I came to, but they wouldn't have cared because they thought the stock was going down tomorrow.'' At the end of 1989, Berkshire's investment was worth $486 million.

By 1974, the market was once again depressed. Buffett was ecstatic. ''I feel like an oversexed guy in a harem,'' he crowed. ''This is the time to start investing.''

One bargain that particularly caught his eye was Geico, the Government Employees Insurance Company, in Washington. Buffett had briefly invested in the company in 1951, when Benjamin Graham was its chairman. By 1976, Geico was in bad shape, but it still retained its franchise, the sale of automobile insurance by mail to a low-risk constituency, which guaranteed a huge float. Berkshire eventually bought $45 million of Geico stock, an investment worth $1.4 billion at the end of 1989.

For 15 years, Warren Buffett and Thomas Murphy, the chairman of Capital Cities Communications, had shared a warm friendship. ''Whenever there was a major decision to be made for our corporation,'' Murphy says, ''I checked it with Warren.'' In 1985, as Capital Cities was about to buy ABC, Buffett committed $517 million of Berkshire's money to purchase 17 percent of the merged enterprise. With typical candor, Buffett reminded the readers of his annual report that Berkshire had once owned a major block of Capital Cities and had disposed of it. ''I understood the business,'' Buffett says, ''and I sold it. I mean, I don't mind missing businesses like Control Data that I don't understand, but I do mind missing businesses I understand. I've done plenty of that. That's the real sin.''

Still, the Berkshire stockholders could hardly complain. As of the end of 1989, the value of the investment had tripled. Attending the 1988 Capital Cities/ABC management meeting, Buffett dressed in a Salvation Army uniform and serenaded the gathering with a song of his own composition, ''What a Friend I Have in Murphy.''

By and large, however, the 1980's did not offer great opportunities for value investors. In a stock market fueled by takeovers, bargains were not in abundant supply. At the same time, Berkshire's capital had grown so huge that Buffett was forced to make large investments. Like ocean liners, immense amounts of money are hard to maneuver. As Buffett puts it, ''Large sums forge their own anchors. In the 70's, I had a lot of ideas and very little money. Now I've got a lot of money and very few ideas.'' As usual, however, Buffett found a way.

He trimmed his portfolio back to just four major investments: The Washington Post; Geico; Capital Cities/ABC - and Coca-Cola. He regarded them as his permanent holdings. The Coca-Cola investment, completed in 1989, cost Berkshire $1 billion, representing 6.3 percent of the company. At the end of 1989, Berkshire's stake was worth $1.8 billion.

BUFFETT HAD ALWAYS parked a significant portion of Berkshire's capital in tax-exempt bonds, but changes in the revenue code reduced their desirability. He soon found a substitute. Some careful investors have long favored convertible preference stock, a security that can be cashed at face value or converted into a company's common stock. The convertible preferreds are regarded as safe, and they yield a predictable, bond-like return. Such stock sells at a premium over the quoted price of the common on the day of purchase but offers the investor the tantalizing possibility of sizable capital appreciation, should the value of the common stock increase in price.

In four instances, Buffett has committed a substantial amount of capital to buy private issues of this investment vehicle. In each case, the issuing company had been or was being threatened by takeover. In each case, the convertible preferred that he bought carried special restrictions but also special privileges.

In 1987, Revlon's Ronald O. Perelman exhibited a keen interest in the parent company of Salomon Brothers, the investment banking firm. Shortly before the October stock market crash, Berkshire paid $700 million for an issue of Salomon convertible preferred; if converted, it would represent 12 percent of the company. In the case of Salomon - as was true of the other three companies - Buffett obtained a relatively low conversion premium, though it would increase as the market dipped. Buffett receives a yield of 9 percent, but the fact that he purchased most of the securities through Berkshire rewards him with a corporate tax advantage that brings his effective yield to around 11.5 percent.

Last July, Buffett cut a similar deal with Gillette - a company recently threatened by both Perelman and Coniston Partners - paying $600 million for 11 percent of the company. A month later, he paid $358 million for an issue of convertible preferred representing 12 percent of USAir Group, the airline holding company that had attracted the predatory interest of Steinhardt Partners. And in December, Buffett paid $300 million for the convertible preferred of Champion International, representing 8 percent of the giant paper company.

In all four deals, unusual restrictions applied. If a potential buyer for his block of convertible preferred appears, Buffett is obliged to offer the issuing company first refusal. Even if the company does not buy back the shares, he is prohibited from selling his entire block to any one purchaser. With the exception of Champion's stock, there are extensive waiting periods before he can convert the preferreds. Buffett must wait three years to begin converting his Salomon preferreds, and two years before converting Gillette and USAir preferreds. On the other hand, Buffett has been granted the unusual privilege of voting his preferred stock as though it were common. And a cash redemption is guaranteed unless the company defaults.

To many in the investment community, Buffett seemed to be assuming the role of a so-called ''white squire,'' selling protection to nervous companies at a handsome premium to himself. (It is a charge Buffett denies, insisting that he is, as usual, a long-term investor - nothing more, nothing less.) Considerable controversy has arisen over the fact that the convertible preferred was made available to Buffett alone, not to other stockholders. In fact, a stockholder suit has been filed against Salomon on that issue.

In his defense, Buffett remarks, ''There are very few people who would want to buy something that was totally unmarketable for such a long period of time. For most people, it just wouldn't be a practical investment.'' In addition, he says, ''If I had four more Coca-Colas to buy, I wouldn't be buying these. I like the convertibles better than I do other fixed-income investments, but I'm not doing handsprings. We get a mediocre return.'' ''Mediocre'' for Warren Buffett, that is. William H. Miller 3d, a senior vice president with the Baltimore investment firm of Legg Mason, observes: ''If people object that he got a special deal, those are objections that should be against the management of those companies, not Buffett.''

Last year, in another departure from past practice, Berkshire raised $400 million from a sale of zero-coupon convertible bonds. Holders receive no interest payments, but they will eventually have the option of converting the bonds into cash or common stock. Thanks to a provision of the tax code, Berkshire deducts interest payments on these bonds, even though such payments are not being made, and most likely never will be. As a result, Berkshire's carrying costs are only about 4 percent.

Meanwhile, the holders of the bonds declare interest they never receive. ''There is a very curious market for this kind of zero-coupon bond,'' says Columbia's Louis Lowenstein. ''It only makes sense for people who care about reported income rather than real income, which gives it an appeal for institutional investors who are judged on a performance that isn't necessarily based on cash.''

Though Berkshire has grown and profited hugely under Buffett's custodianship, it has not declared a dividend since 1967. Nor has he ever split the stock, although the price has risen astronomically. As recently as 1982, the stock traded as low as $420; in 1988, when Buffett listed Berkshire with the New York Stock Exchange, the shares soared as high as $8,900 before falling back to trade in a range between $7,200 and $8,500. Berkshire remains the most expensive stock on the exchange, though it has recently come under pressure following a Feb. 12 article in Barron's. An analysis in the financial weekly concluded that Berkshire's market price was ''considerably higher than the company's value when viewed as a collection of business and portfolio investments.'' (Buffett claims that the article contained serious computational errors that reduced the book value of Berkshire's holdings by hundreds of millions of dollars.) The annual reports he personally composes are remarkable for their wit and candor and are liberally laced with apposite quotations from the likes of Pascal, Goethe, Sam Goldwyn and Yogi Berra. Sometimes a note of pessimism creeps in. ''Our gain in net worth during the year was $613.6 million, or 48.2 percent,'' he wrote in his 1985 report. ''It is fitting that the visit of Halley's Comet coincided with this percentage gain; neither will be seen again in my lifetime.'' Perhaps, but the comet's trail was sighted last year, when Berkshire posted an annual gain of $1.51 billion, or 44.4 percent.

WARREN BUFFETT HAS never regretted his return to Omaha. His older son, a farmer and county commissioner, lives outside town, and Buffett's daughter has recently returned to Omaha from Washington. Her husband manages the Buffett Foundation, devoted to population control and nuclear disarmament; the foundation will receive by far the largest portion of Buffett's personal fortune. His second son is a musician in Milwaukee. Buffett is separated from his wife, who resides in San Francisco; he lives with his companion and housekeeper, Astrid Menks.

''I think it's a saner existence here,'' he says. ''I used to feel, when I worked back in New York, that there were more stimuli just hitting me all the time, and if you've got the normal amount of adrenaline, you start responding to them. It may lead to crazy behavior after a while. It's much easier to think here.''

As Buffett reflects on his life, his rapid, hesitant voice is punctuated with bursts of laughter. ''I love what I do,'' he says. ''I'm involved in a kind of intellectually interesting game that isn't too tough to win, and Berkshire Hathaway is my canvas. I don't try to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over. I work with sensational people, and I do what I want in life. Why shouldn't I? If I'm not in a position to do what I want, who the hell is?''

Photos: Warren E. Buffett (Jodi Buren) (pg. 16); Charles T. Munger, Warren Buffett's longtime partner (Bonnie Schiffman/Onyx) (pg. 63); graph of Berkshire Hathaway stock (pg. 62)
 

巴菲特投资理念与中国股市实践

 注: 但斌最近推荐的书《奥马哈之雾》作者之一的一篇文章

 

任俊杰,20世纪90年代初开始参与深圳股票市场(B股)的创建工作,90年代中后期开始学习与研究巴菲特的投资思想体系并一直延续至今。1999年6月在《证券时报》上发表的《巴菲特投资理念与中国股市实践》

 

 

巴菲特的投资理念,比起随机漫步、有效市场假说、以及资本资产定价理论,要简单的多。但简单的东西不一定不深刻。在不少人那里,巴菲特就等于绩优加长线。其实,事情远非这么简单。

  巴式投资方法的基本内容

  巴式方法大致可概括为5项投资逻辑、12项投资要点、8项选股标准、和2项投资方式。

  (一)、5项投资逻辑

  1因为我把自己当成是企业的经营者,所以我成为优秀的投资人;因为我把自己当成投资人,所以我成为优秀的企业经营者。

  2好的企业比好的价格更重要。【许多人认为好的价格更重要。以合理的价格买入一家好的企业。

  3一生追求消费垄断企业。

  4最终决定公司股价的是公司的实质价值。

  5没有任何时间适合将最优秀的企业脱手。

  这5项投资逻辑,构成巴式投资方法的基本框架。是我们理解巴式方法的基本要素。

 

  (二)、12项投资要点

  1利用市场的愚蠢,进行有规律的投资。

  2买价决定报酬率的高低,即使是长线投资也是如此。

  3利润的复合增长与交易费用和税负的避免使投资人受益无穷。

  4不在意一家公司来年可赚多少,仅有意未来5至10年能赚多少。

  5只投资未来收益确定性高的企业。

  6通货膨胀是投资者的最大敌人。

  7价值型与成长型的投资理念是相通的;价值是一项投资未来现金流量的折现值;而成长只是用来决定价值的一项预测过程。

  8投资人财务上的成功与他对投资企业的了解程度成正比。

  9“安全边际”从两个方面协助你的投资:首先是缓冲可能的价格风险;其次是可获的相对高的权益报酬率。

  (10)拥有一只股票,期待它下个星期就上涨,是十分愚蠢的。

  (11)就算联储主席偷偷告诉我未来两年的货币政策,我也不会改变我的任何一个作为。 【不管货币政策】

  (12)不理会股市的涨跌,不担心经济情势的变化,不相信任何预测,不接受任何内幕消息,只注意两点:A、买什么股票;B、买入价格

  这12项要点,代表了12个相互独立的理论。每一个理论都有其完整而深刻的内涵。

 

  (三)、8项投资标准

  1必须是消费垄断企业。

  2产品简单、易了解、前景看好。

  3有稳定的经营史。

  4经营者理性、忠诚,始终以股东利益为先。

  5财务稳键。

  6经营效率高、收益好。

  7资本支出少、自由现金流量充裕。

  8价格合理。

  每一项标准的后面,都有一个精彩的故事。正是这些故事促成了巴菲特的最后成功。

 

  (四)、2项投资方式

  1卡片打洞、终生持有,每年检查一次以下数字:A、初始的权益报酬率;B、营运毛利;C、负债水准;D、资本支出;E、现金流量。


  2当市场过于高估持有股票的价格时,也可考虑进行短期套利。

  某种意义上说,卡片打洞与终生持股,构成了巴式方法最为独特的部分。也是最容易使人入迷的部分。

 

  巴式方法长期战胜市场的法宝:远离市场

  透彻研究巴式方法,会发觉影响其最终成功的12项投资决定,虽然确实与“市场尚未反映的信息”有关,但所有信息却都是公开的,是摆在那里谁都可以利用的。没有内幕消息,也没有花费大量的金钱。是运气好吗?就像学术界的比喻:当有1000只猴子掷币时,总有一只始终掷出正面。但这解释不了有成千上万个投资人参加的投资竞赛中,只有巴菲特一人取得连续32年战胜市场的记录。

  其实,巴菲特的成功,靠的是一套与众不同的投资理念,不同的投资哲学与逻辑,不同的投资技巧。在看似简单的操作方法背后,你其实能悟出深刻的道理,又简单到任何人都可以利用。巴菲特曾经说过,他对华尔街那群受过高等教育的专业人士的种种非理性行为感到不解。也许是人在市场,身不由己。所以他最后离开了纽约,躲到美国中西部一个小镇里去了。

  他远离市场,他也因此战胜了市场。

  巴式投资方法在中国行得通吗

  (一)、过于草率的结论?

  巴菲特在我国股市遭遇了比华尔街更为激烈地嘲讽与贬低:“西方的那套炒股方法,根本不适用于中国股市”;“大陆股市投机气味浓烈,不适宜长期投资”;“股价偏高,价值型的选股方法根本行不通”;“中国股市不具备投资价值,走巴菲特之路过于书呆子气”。

  记得巴菲特说过:对《证券分析》这本书,未看完12遍,不会买任何股票。这显示了巴菲特对投资大师的严肃与崇敬,也显示了他本人的谦逊与聪明。在我们的反巴人群中,有几个已深入了解巴式投资方法?读1-2遍的有,读12遍的肯定没有。否则不会对巴式理念反覆出现概念上的混淆,也不会出现端起饭碗吃饭,放下饭碗骂娘的糟糕逻辑。

 

  (二)、运用巴式方式的前提条件

  根据对巴式投资方法的了解,其实不论哪里的股市,只要具备以下几个前提条件,就具备了运用巴式方法的土壤与环境:

  A、短线炒做在市场占主导地位;

  B、贪婪与恐惧是影响股价大幅起落的主要因素;

  C、股票的收益线与价格线长期趋于一致;

  D、较高的交易佣金与税负;

  E、股市不会关闭。

  我们来看一组数字:1997年深成指年末涨幅为30.06%,年内最大涨幅为89.71%,股指振幅达104.46%,沪综指1997年涨幅为30.21%,年内最大涨幅为64.67%,振幅达73.56%;1996年深成指涨幅为226%,年内最大涨幅为358%,振幅为389%;沪综指1996年末涨幅为65%,年内最大涨幅为12%,振幅为146%。

  以上数据,显示了我国股市无效率的一面,及运用巴式投资方法的可能与机会。

  我国股市对巴式方法的必然修正

  (一)、注意我国上市公司的特有风险,这包括:1产权制度风险,股权设置风险与治理结构风险。2因大面积不分配以及高姿态配股而加大的股票非系统风险。3关联交易风险。4信息披露风险。

  (二)、安全边际问题。市场平均股价的高企,使许多股票失去投资价值。但市场对炒做热点的不停切换,又为聪明的投资人创造了许多入市的机会。投资者需要更多的耐心和等待。

  (三)、收益质量问题。这包括对现金流量的关注,对会计政策的关注,对债务比例的关注,对关联交易的关注,对突发性收益的关注,等等。

  (四)、财务结构问题。重点是债务比例结构和资本结构。有时,公司因历史遗留问题致使债务比例过大;有时又因理念上的误差致使资本结构过于单纯。对此,投资者要给予冷静的分析。

  (五)、经营历史问题。我国上市公司的历史较短,这就加大了从过去看未来的难度,对有关标准需要灵活使用。比如:在分析中加大立体看一间公司的比重,以及参照的时间可适当缩短等。

  (六)、利润增长问题。由于上市公司大比例的不分配和配股,在审视公司利润的增长时,有必要同时关注每股收益的增长和权益报酬率的变化。

  理论联系实际,是让人们对外来的东西不能盲目引进、生搬硬套。但不求甚解、浅尝辙止,对还没有完全弄懂的东西就将其拒之门外,也是不可取的。
 

2010年9月29日

中國需要美國的智能電網嗎? China Wants Smart Grid, But Not Too Smart

要是能弄明白中國用了多少電﹐這人就要掙大錢了。

中國正在開始採用智能電網﹐包括一種高級電表架構(AMI)﹐此架構包括民用及商用電表這樣的設備。

Associated Press
對外國企業而言﹐中國的電網改造工程機遇與風險併存。
中國需要更新老化的設備﹐還要在大多位於西北部的發電廠與多集中在東南沿海的用戶之間建立更好的聯繫。這種需求對國外的設備供應商來說意味著重大商機﹐比如通用電氣(General Electric Co.)、西門子(Siemens AG)和阿爾卡特-朗訊(Alcatel-Lucent)這些競相參與設立智能電網及AMI工程的企業。

通用電氣曾估計這一市場在今後十年中的規模將達到600億美元。

然而﹐如此多機會的出現卻提出了這樣一個疑問﹐那就是全球科技企業願意作出多少犧牲來攫取這些機會:在其他領域﹐希望進入中國智能電網市場的外國參與者可能需要針對中國對產品作出調整、降低售價以及承擔專利技術被當地競爭對手盜取的風險。

目標是為這個全球頭號能源消耗國設計出方法﹐使它能夠通過技術手段更加智能地用電﹐控制家用電器﹐只在需要的時間和地方供電。試想一下﹐家庭智能電表與電力供應商相連﹐能夠提醒用戶和供電商可能出現的用電量飆升情況﹐不僅可以即時調整定價﹐還能控制洗碗機等設備的啟動﹐以此實現效率的最大化。

但在一位中國知名的行業研究人員看來﹐外國供應商不應花太大成本來進行過於智能的思考。

中國電力科學研究院的主要專家胡學浩說﹐歐美研發的AMI領先技術往往要比中國目前所要求的水平先進得多。他說﹐我們發展AMI要視需求而定。

週二在上海舉行的一個地區智能電網會議上﹐就中國是否將從外國供應商那裡購買電表設備﹐胡學浩興致勃勃地回答說﹐中國的電網技術完善﹐可以運行最先進的產品﹐但中國並不一定需要。

胡學浩舉例說﹐新的無線電表可以實現家庭和電網公司間的交流﹐儘管這是重大進步﹐但在公寓建設中是沒用的﹐中國許多地方將電表系統置於地面以下﹐他說﹐我不會為我不需要的功能花錢。

胡學浩還指出﹐供應中國市場的美國電表通常讓每個住宅單元花費超過100美元﹐這是他個人每月電費的10倍多﹐他說﹐對於中國居民來說太貴了。

胡學浩特別對通用電氣持批評態度。在當天稍早的一次演示中﹐胡學浩批評通用電氣希望“直接”向中國銷售設備﹐這意味著它將向中國提供與美國一樣的設備。胡學浩說﹐如果他們的設備符合中國標準﹐我想我們可以接受他們的電表。

通用電氣一位發言人沒有立即回應置評要求。

週二在另一個場合﹐胡學浩說﹐美國標準不適合中國市場﹐並補充說﹐歐洲標準更接近。中國最大電力輸送企業──國家電網公司今年稍早宣佈了自己的標準。

他講話後很快就出席了電力專家的研討會﹐在這裡標準問題再次被提起。在該研討會中﹐韓國電力交易所(Korea Power Exchange)高管Yeoungjin Chae高興地說﹐他的USB電腦設備是菲律賓生產的﹐可以毫不費力接上中國生產的筆記本電腦﹐但同時他也哀嘆各國電插頭不能兼容。談到應用智能電網技術時﹐他補充說﹐韓國認為國際合作是該業務最重要的部分﹐否則在把原先不相連的東西接在一起的時候﹐你不得不轉接許多設備。

研討會主持人朔姆貝格(Richard Schomberg)響應了這一觀點﹐他還是智能電網戰略集團(Smart Grid Strategic Group)主席。該研討會一位日本成員也表示讚同﹐他說﹐這些小細節確實重要。

胡學浩說﹐中國有自己的標準﹐但可以使之國際化﹐國際化非常重要。

James T. Areddy

(本文版權歸道瓊斯公司所有﹐未經許可不得翻譯或轉載。)
 
 
Whoever figures out how much electricity China uses stands to make lots of money.

The country is in the process of adopting a smart electrical grid, including Advanced Metering Infrastructure, or AMI, which includes equipment like meters for residences and companies.

China needs to update aging equipment and better link power producers, who tend to be in the northwest, with users, who tend to be located in the coastal southeast. That need represents major business opportunities for foreign equipment suppliers like General Electric Co., Siemens AG and Alcatel-Lucent, who are lining up to help build out smart grid and AMI.

GE has estimated the market at $60 billion over the next decade.

The presence of so many opportunities, however, raises questions about how much sacrifice global technology companies are willing to make in order to grab them: As in other sectors, foreign participants hoping to gain access to China's smart grid market may need to tailor their products for China, lower prices and risk having proprietary technology stolen by local competitors.

The aim is to design ways for the world's No. 1 energy consumer to more intelligently use electricity by employing technology to control appliances and supply power only when and where it is needed. Think smart electrical meters in homes that are linked to power suppliers and able to alert customers and producers to expected usage surges, adjust pricing on the fly and control the start-up of devices like dishwashers to maximize efficiency.

But foreign suppliers should not think too smart, or too pricey, according to one prominent Chinese industry researcher.

Hu Xuehao, principal expert at China Electric Power Research Institute, says leading AMI technology being developed in the U.S. and Europe is often much more advanced than China requires at this point. 'Our AMI development has to depend on demand,' he said.

In a spirited answer to a question about whether China would buy metering equipment from foreign suppliers, Hu told a regional smart grid conference Tuesday in Shanghai that China's electrical network has the technological sophistication to run the most advanced products but doesn't always need them.

Take, for instance, new wireless meters that allow communication between homes and power grids. While an important advancement, Hu said, they are useless in apartment buildings, like those in many part of China, that place their metering systems below ground level. 'I can't pay for functions I don't need,' he said.

Hu also noted that American-made meters being offered in China tend to cost over $100 per residential unit. At over ten times his personal monthly power bill, he said, that's 'too expensive for Chinese residences.'

Hu sounded particularly critical of GE. During a presentation earlier in the day, he took the company to task for wanting to sell equipment to China 'directly,' meaning it would offer the same equipment in China as it does in the U.S. 'But I think we can accept your meters if they follow China's standards,' Hu said.

A spokesman for GE didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

At another point Tuesday, Hu said 'the United States standardization is not appropriate for the Chinese market,' adding that European standards get closer.
China's top power supplier, State Grid, announced its own set of standards earlier this year.

Shortly after making his comments, Hu sat on a panel of power experts where the issue of standards was raised again. On the panel, Yeoungjin Chae, a manager at Korea Power Exchange, happily noted that his USB computer device was made in the Philippines and plugs effortlessly into his China-made laptop but lamented the incompatibility of electrical plugs from country to country. In adopting 'smart grid' technology, Chae added, 'Korea believes international cooperation is the most important part of the business. You have to convert a whole lot of devices that were not connected before.'

Panel moderator Richard Schomberg, chairman of Smart Grid Strategic Group, echoed that sentiment, as did a Japanese member of the panel who chimed in by saying: 'These kinds of tiny stuff do count.'

'We have our standards in China, but they can be internationalized,' Hu said. 'Internationalization is very important.'

James T. Areddy
 

葡萄酒进入大牛市 A Bull Market for Wine

华尔街日报》──据法国葡萄酒商的说法,今年法国波尔多 (Bordeaux) 产区的葡萄在变化多端的气候中开花结果,因此可能不会在同一时间成熟。这样会给收割工作带来一些麻烦,而且十有八九会造成2010年葡萄产量减少。此外,今年的暴雨也比较多,导致气候过于潮湿,葡萄藤容易烂根──不过,人们认为今年的葡萄质量还是好的。

iStockphoto/Abi Hardwick
在以往,只有一些品酒家和酒商对波尔多产区葡萄收成的早期预测感兴趣,但现在葡萄酒已经成为一种投资品,因此很多人都开始关注起这个全世界最大的优良葡萄酒产区在丰收季节前的天气情况。

在波尔多地区吉伦河口(Gironde estuary) 一带的砂砾山丘,分布着最著名的一些酒庄。在它们的酒窖里,2009年份的葡萄酒正在大橡木桶里成熟。该年份的葡萄酒无疑是有史以来最受关注的,甚至遮盖了名闻遐迩的1961、1982和2005年份葡萄酒的光辉。酒还没有装瓶,其价格就已经飙升,同时人们对葡萄酒投资的兴趣也在与日俱增。

大致来说,那些通过期酒(en primeur)销售系统买到2009年份葡萄酒期货的人早已赚到了纸面利润。葡萄酒经纪公司Fine + Rare的统计数据显示,2009年份拉菲(Chateau Lafite Rothschild)葡萄酒的价格已经从2010年6月上市时的每箱10,000英镑上涨到目前的每箱13,657英镑,涨幅高达36%。同在波亚克地区(Pauillac)生产的类似级别的2009年份拉图(Chateau Latour)葡萄酒今年6月上市时每箱为10,000英镑,现在是12,000英镑,涨幅20%。

从2004年12月Fine + Rare公司首次收集葡萄酒投资数据起计算,2000年份拉菲的价格上涨了611%。2004年时每箱价格为2,560英镑,现在是18,400英镑。

2000年份柏图斯(Chateau Petrus)葡萄酒的价格从2004年12月的12,000英镑每箱上涨到现在的36,627英镑,涨幅高达255%,买家每箱就可以赚到24,627英镑。因此我们不难理解,为什么在银行里有10万英镑以上富余资金的人会对投资全世界最好的葡萄酒越来越感兴趣。

伦敦国际酒类交易所(London International Vintners Exchange)佳酿100指数(Fine Wine 100 Index)跟踪全球最受追捧的100种葡萄酒的价格变动,自2001年发布以来,该指数已上涨200%以上。在经济形势如此不稳定的时期,这是非常强劲而抗跌的表现。

葡萄酒经纪商对此的解释是,上好葡萄酒是一种人们渴望拥有的奢侈品,而且至关重要的是,上好葡萄酒的供应量是有限的:拉菲酒庄每年只有48万瓶左右的产量,拉图酒庄只有约35万瓶的产量。而且与其它奢侈品不同,葡萄酒产量无法增加,因为葡萄园的种植面积基本上是固定不变的。随着市场需求的增长,葡萄酒供应会越来越紧张,因为许多人不但想投资最好的葡萄酒,而且也喜欢享用葡萄酒。

Fine + Rare葡萄酒经纪公司创始人及首席执行长贝迪尼(Mark Bedini)说,葡萄酒投资的优势在于,随着时间的推移,酒变得越来越珍稀,因为人们会喝掉很多。从长期来看,葡萄酒的年份越久,数量越少,需求越大,价格就很可能涨得越离谱。

Reuters
罗伯特•帕克的100分评分系统对市场影响很大。
近年来,远东市场对葡萄酒的兴趣也成为其价格上涨的驱动引擎,尤其是中国大陆和2008年以后的香港市场。2008年,香港政府废除了葡萄酒的所有进口关税,极大推动了葡萄酒在亚洲市场的发展。葡萄酒商Berry Brothers & Rudd有一个葡萄酒经纪部门,与许多欧洲酒商和拍卖商一样,该公司也在香港设立了分支机构。

Berry Brothers & Rudd香港公司直销渠道经理比尔贝(Adam Bilbey)表示,葡萄酒行业才刚刚开始满足亚洲市场的一些浅层需求。

比尔贝说,亚洲人对葡萄酒的兴趣大为增加,首先从香港开始,现在已经扩展到中国大陆市场。这要归功于亚洲亿万富豪对奢侈品牌的追逐。据比尔贝讲,很多人购买葡萄酒是为了自己喝或者送人。既然葡萄酒的投资回报这么高,那我们该如何构建一个葡萄酒投资组合呢?首先有一点很重要,要小心选择葡萄酒品牌,只有很少数的葡萄酒具备投资潜力。

专家表示,法国波尔多产区麦道克(Medoc)地区评级为“顶级一等”(First Growth)酒庄的葡萄酒投资回报率最高:即拉菲、拉图、玛歌(Margaux)、木桐(Mouton Rothschild)和奥比昂(Haut Brion)的葡萄酒,但奥比昂的表现没有其它几种那么好。产自波尔多产区河对岸的几款酒也可以加入这一行列,最有名的是柏图斯(Chateau Petrus)、白舒伐尔(Cheval Blanc)和欧松(Ausone)酒庄的葡萄酒。

在波尔多产区之外,勃艮第(Burgundy)产区也有几款上佳的葡萄酒,如罗曼尼•康帝(Domaine de la Romanee-Conti)和拉茹•贝茨•勒鲁瓦(Lalou Bize Leroy)等,投资回报都很高。此外,还有几款罗讷河谷(Rhone)和香槟区(Champagne)的葡萄酒也很不错。

比尔贝说,如果单从投资角度来看,那我的建议永远只有一个,那就是,特别关注2009、2005、2000和1996年份的波尔多葡萄酒。

他说,波尔多葡萄酒的一大好处在于其市场流动性非常好,很容易就能卖掉。我推荐四种葡萄酒:玛歌、木桐、拉菲和拉图。柏图斯的价格更高,但变现没那么容易。目前,个人投资者购买波尔多葡萄酒的最佳渠道是通过每年夏季的期酒发售会,人们品尝木桶中的原酒后,在装瓶和发货的一年前预定葡萄酒。这样做的好处是可以确保买到自己想要的酒,而且享受到优惠的开卖价格;缺点是如果葡萄酒的品质没达到人们的预期,价格就会下跌。

葡萄酒的价格在很大程度上取决于葡萄酒的质量。在这方面,美国酒评家罗伯特•帕克(Robert Parker)的观点十分关键,他给所有的葡萄酒打分,满分为100分,评分公布在他自己的网站erobertparker.com上。《葡萄酒观察家》(The Wine Spectator)杂志也以百分制给葡萄酒打分,另外,英国酒评家简西斯•罗宾逊(Jancis Robinson)的观点也值得参考。有不少经纪商和酒商出售期酒并提供收费的保税储存服务,这样买家就不用支付关税或消费税了。

另一种投资途径是购买葡萄酒投资基金。这类基金一般收取5%的申购费,每年收取1.5%或2.5%的管理费,并收取平均20%左右的赎回费。顶级葡萄酒基金(The Vintage Wine Fund)、葡萄酒资产管理公司(Wine Asset Managers)和葡萄酒投资基金(The Wine Investment Fund)都已获得英国金融服务局(U.K. Financial Services Authority)的认证。

William Lyons


(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)
 
 
The flowering of the vines in Bordeaux took place in unsettled conditions this year. The chances are that the region's grapes will not all ripen at the same time, according to French wine merchants. This in turn will make for a tricky harvest and -- in all probability -- a small, weather-affected crop for the 2010 vintage. There have also been storms, which can lead to high humidity and the possibility of rot -- but the quality is thought to be good.

Traditionally Bordeaux's early vintage forecasts were only of interest to a handful of oenologists and wine merchants. But given the returns being made on wine investment, far more people are now interested in the weather before harvest time in the world's largest fine wine region.

In the cellars of the most famous Chateaux that line the gravel mounds of the Gironde estuary in Bordeaux, the 2009 vintage has been maturing in barrel. This is undoubtedly the most hyped vintage since records began -- eclipsing the famed vintages of 1961, 1982 and 2005. Even before the wine has been bottled, its value has already soared. Interest in wine investments is keeping pace.

Those that bought the 2009 vintage early, through the futures based en primeur system are, in certain cases, already sitting on a paper profit. Figures from Fine + Rare wine brokers show that Chateau Lafite Rothschild 2009 has already risen 36% from GBP 10,000 a case when it was released on the market in June to GBP 13,657 today. Similarly Chateau Latour 2009, also produced in the commune of Pauillac, has risen 20% from GBP 10,000 a case when it was released in June to GBP 12,000 today.

Chateau Lafite Rothschild 2000 has climbed 611% since December 2004 -- when Fine + Rare first started compiling figures on wine investments. A case that would have cost GBP 2,560 in 2004 is now worth GBP 18,400.

Chateau Petrus 2000 has climbed 255% from GBP 12,000 in December 2004 to GBP 36,627 today giving the buyer a return of GBP 24,627 a case. It is not difficult to see why those with a spare GBP 100,000 in the bank are increasingly being tempted to take a punt on some of the world's finest wines.

Live-ex's Fine Wine 100 Index, the London International Vintners Exchange, which tracks the price movement of the world's 100 most sought after wines, has climbed by more than 200% since it was launched in 2001. That's a remarkably resilient performance during a period of such economic uncertainty.

Wine brokers put this down to the fact that fine wine is a luxury product that people aspire to own. Crucially it is limited in supply: Chateau Lafite Rothschild produces around 480,000 bottles a year; Chateau Latour, only around 350,000 bottles. And unlike other luxury items, production cannot be increased because the vineyard areas are more or less fixed. As demand increases supply diminishes because as many, if not more, people want to drink the best vintages as invest in them.

Mark Bedini, chief executive and founder of wine brokerage Fine + Rare Wines Ltd, says: 'The plus side of wine investment is that as time goes by it gets scarcer as people drink it. The likelihood is that over time -- as the wines get older, rarer and in greater demand -- prices will inexorably increase.'

In recent years, these increases have been turbocharged by interest from the Far East most notably mainland China and since 2008, Hong Kong. In that year the Hong Kong authorities abolished all import duty and taxes on wine. This fuelled a huge boom in the Asian market. Wine merchants Berry Brothers & Rudd, who also run a brokerage department, are just one of a number of European merchants and auction houses that have set up offices in Hong Kong.

Adam Bilbey, direct sales manager with Berry Bros & Rudd in Hong Kong says the wine industry has only just started to scratch the surface of the potential Asian market.

He says: 'There has been a huge increase in interest, which started with Hong Kong but has now spread to mainland China. It is driven by the uber-wealthy looking for luxury brands.' Many are buying wine to drink or give as gifts, according to Mr. Bilbey. So given that there are significant returns to be made, how does one go about creating a wine portfolio? Firstly, it is important to choose your Chateaux carefully. Only a very small number of wines have investment potential.

Experts say the highest returns can be found among the very top wines in Bordeaux's Medoc region, classified as First Growths: Chateaux Lafite Rothschild, Latour, Margaux and Mouton Rothschild and Haut Brion, although the latter hasn't performed as well as the others. A handful of wines from the other side of the river in Bordeaux -- most notably Chateau Petrus, Le Pin, Cheval Blanc and Ausone -- can be added to this list.

Outside of Bordeaux, a few of the very best wines in Burgundy such as Domaine de la Romanee-Conti and Lalou Bize Leroy can offer significant returns. There are also a handful of Rhone wines and Champagne houses.

Mr. Bedini says: 'If you are looking at it purely for investment then my recommendation would always be to look very exclusively at a small number of Bordeaux wines from 2009, 2005, 2000 and 1996 vintages.

'The great thing about Bordeaux is that they are very liquid so if anyone wants to sell their wines they are going to trade out pretty quickly. The four I would recommend are: Chateaux Margaux, Mouton, Lafite, Latour. Chateaux Petrus is more valuable but harder to sell quickly.' By far the best way for private investors to purchase Bordeaux is through the summer en primeur campaign when the wines are offered a year ahead of bottling and shipment, having been tasted from the barrel. The upside to this is that you can secure allocation and favorable opening prices. The down side is that the prices can fall if the wines fail to live up to the initial hype.

The price of a wine is largely determined by its quality. The key marker of this is the view of American wine critic, Robert Parker, who scores all wines on a 100-point scale. Mr Parker's scores are published on his website, erobertparker.com. The Wine Spectator, which also scores wines out of 100, and the opinions of British wine critic Jancis Robinson are also worth checking. There are a number of brokerages and merchants who sell wine en primeur and store it, for a fee, under bond so that you don't have to pay duty or VAT.

The other investment route is through a wine investment fund. These tend to charge a 5% subscription fee, annual management fees of 1.5% or 2.5% and an average exit fee of around 20% of the upside. The Vintage Wine Fund, Wine Asset Managers and The Wine Investment Fund have all been authorized by the U.K. Financial Services Authority.

William Lyons
 

体味北京夜生活 After Hours: Beijing

竞争对手上海相比,北京没有那么喧嚣的繁华,历史的气息更为厚重。这里有气势宏伟的政府和商业办公楼,有天安门和紫禁城这样壮丽恢宏的建筑,点缀其间的还有几片舒适宜人的夜生活娱乐区域──现代风格和古典风格皆有。

Stefen Chow for The Wall Street Journal
那里花园
从胡同出发,星罗棋布的小巷连接着依然是北京心脏的四合院群落,尽管历经多年的破坏和改造,依然有一些四合院留存下来。有两家最棒的四合院餐厅经营的都是云南菜:一家是一直以来备受食客青睐的大理院子 (Dali Courtyard),位于钟鼓楼附近的一条胡同里,另一家则是滇客滇来 (Dianke Dianlai)。

这两家餐厅每晚的菜肴都是由厨师来决定的。与北京的众多餐馆不同,滇客滇来的特色菜是海鲜,尤其是薄荷色拉配龙虾以及香茅草烤三文鱼。大理院子通常会上一道罗非鱼让客人分享,另外还有其它一些云南特色菜,如辣炒蘑菇和干炸虾等。

Stefen Chow for The Wall Street Journal
派乐坊酒屋
这些餐馆的菜往往是辣的,啤酒可谓最佳搭档,但品酒专家也能在胡同里得偿夙愿。派乐坊酒屋(Palette Vino)位于东四十条路口附近的一条胡同内,酒单上有330种葡萄酒,主要来自澳洲、意大利和西班牙。按北京的标准来看,价格还是合理的(中国的进口关税让葡萄酒变得有点贵),从每瓶160元到900元不等(约合23.50美元到132.50美元)。菜肴则是地中海风味。

那里花园 (Nali Patio)地处北京最活跃的夜生活娱乐区三里屯,是一个四面围合的六层四合院建筑,里面有许多酒吧和餐厅,周末吸引了大量的人流。晚餐的最佳场所是三楼的Mosto餐厅,环境舒适而又亲切,菜品走高端路线,建议头菜不妨品尝一下煎鹅肝或章鱼色拉,主食点澳洲肉眼牛排或新西兰羊排。隔壁是Apothecary餐厅,一个北京的俊男靓女经常出没的地方,主推鸡尾酒,厚厚的酒单上列出了主要酒品的起源,有些是经典鸡尾酒,有些则是Apothecary特调的。

Stefen Chow for The Wall Street Journal
书虫吧
从那里花园步行五分钟,来到三里屯南街,这里拥有更具文化气息的品酒方式。书虫吧(The Bookworm)是北京最好的英文类书籍阅读场所,也是一个咖啡屋和深夜酒吧,还是各种文学和音乐沙龙的举办地。

再走两分钟,就能看到1949会所(1949 Hidden City)建筑群,其原址是北京机电研究院。这里的“全鸭季”(Duck de Chine)餐厅也是四合院风格,招牌菜是北京烤鸭。出了餐厅就是一个室外的Bollinger香槟吧──主推酒品想必你也想到了:Bollinger香槟。

北京一些最潮的夜生活娱乐场所位于饭店里面。在三里屯,从那里花园往北走,有一家名叫瑜舍(Opposite House)的精品酒店,里面有不少很好的餐饮场所,从早餐到休闲餐,应有尽有,比如Mesh和Punk酒吧等。

稍远一点是柏悦酒店(Park Hyatt),位于建外大街南侧,建外SOHO餐饮娱乐办公区附近。柏悦酒店的66层有个名叫北京亮(China Grill)的牛排餐厅,有着全北京最佳的视野,至少在能见度高的时候是这样。第6层是秀吧 (Xiu),有现场音乐表演和露天酒吧,开业首年就已成为北京最热门的娱乐场所之一。同在柏悦酒店的Room BMK集餐厅口酒吧口夜总会为一体,最近开业后也引起巨大反响。原因何在?因为这里有英国名厨布莱恩•马克南镇守,代表着北京最顶尖的美食水平。Room的室内装潢也很华美,包括时尚艺术家雨果•达尔顿(Hugo Dalton)绘制的 上作品。

如果你还没玩够,不妨移步北京的地标式建筑“工人体育场”,这里有许多这个城市最时髦的新式酒吧,比如,装饰豪华口以黑色为主题的George's酒吧。年轻的鸡尾酒调酒师乔治•周(George Zhou)说,自己小时候看汤姆•克鲁斯(Tom Cruise)主演的电影《鸡尾酒》(Cocktail),从此迷上了调酒师这个职业;不过还好,他这间酒吧注重的是调制鸡尾酒,而不是电影中的泡妞调情。你可以在这些地方尽情畅游,直到凌晨五点天色发白。

详细情报

大理院子
地址:东城区鼓楼东大街小经厂胡同67号
电话:86-10-8404-1439

滇客滇来
地址:东城区朝阳门大方家胡同8号
电话:86-10-6512-0930

派乐坊酒屋
地址:东四十一条5号
电话:86-10-6405-4855

Mosto
地址:三里屯北路81号那里花园三楼
电话:86-10-5208-6030

Apothecary
地址:三里屯北路81号那里花园三楼
电话:86-10-5208-6040

书虫吧
地址:南三里屯路4号楼
电话:86-10-6586-9507

全鸭季
地址:朝阳区工体北路4号院1949内(太平洋百货南门对面)
电话:86-10-6501-8881

瑜舍
地址:朝阳区三里屯路11号院1号楼
电话:86-10-6417-6688

秀吧
地址:朝阳区建外大街2号银泰中心6层
电话:86-10-8567-1838

Room bmk
地址:朝阳区建外大街2号银泰中心

George's酒吧
地址:工人体育场12号门
电话:86-10-6553-6299

Andrew Peaple

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)
 
 
Beijing doesn't have quite the pizzazz of its rival Shanghai. It's a more monumental city, from its imposing government and company offices to mammoth sites like Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City. But dotted around the capital are several intimate areas -- both modern and ancient -- for an evening's entertainment.

Start in the hutongs, the network of back streets lined with courtyard homes that are still the heart of the city, despite years of destruction and redevelopment. Two of the best courtyard restaurants offer food from Yunnan province, in southern China: longtime favorite Dali Courtyard, down a hutong not far from Beijing's Drum and Bell Towers, and Dianke Dianlai.

The form is to enjoy the dishes the chef chooses on a particular evening. Unusually for a Beijing restaurant, Dianke Dianlai's highlights are seafood, particularly the lobster with mint salad and salmon roasted on a bamboo stick. Dali usually serves tilapia fish to share, along with other Yunnan specialities such as spicy mushrooms and fried shrimp.

Beer is the best accompaniment to the sometimes spicy food, but there are hutong experiences for oenophiles, too. Palette Vino, tucked down an alley near the Dongsishitiao junction, focuses on wines from Australia, Italy and Spain on its 330-bottle list. Prices are reasonable by Beijing standards -- import duties make wine a little expensive in China -- with bottles ranging from around 160 to 900 yuan (about $23.50 to $132.50). The food is Mediterranean-inspired.

In Sanlitun, Beijing's liveliest night-life area, Nali Patio is an enlosed six-story courtyard area filled with bars and restaurants that attract quite a crowd on weekends. The best dining option is Mosto, on the third floor. The menu is high-end -- try the seared foie gras or octopus salad to start, followed by the Australian rib-eye steak or the New Zealand rack of lamb -- and the setting is relaxed and intimate. Just next door is Apothecary, a haunt of Beijing's beautiful people that takes its cocktails seriously: A thick menu details the origin of its key drinks, both classics and Apothecary's own.

A more cultural approach to drinking is just a five-minute walk from Nali Patio, off Sanlitun South Street. The Bookworm, one of the city's best sources of English-language books, doubles as a coffee shop and late-night bar, as well as a venue for the likes of literary talks and musical evenings.

Two minutes farther on is another take on the courtyard theme, in the 1949 Hidden City complex -- former home of the Beijing Machine and Electricity Institute. Duck de Chine's signature dish is of course Beijing roast duck. Outside the restaurant is the outdoor Bollinger bar -- again, the speciality is no surprise: the namesake Champagne.

Some of Beijing's trendiest night spots are in hotel complexes. In Sanlitun, just up from Nali Patio, the boutique hotel Opposite House has great places to eat and drink from breakfast through to the small hours, including the bars Mesh and Punk.

A little further away, on the 66th floor of the Park Hyatt -- on the south side of Jianguomen Avenue and just off the popular Jianwai Soho area of offices, shops and cafes -- is China Grill, a steak-focused restaurant with arguably Beijing's best view, at least when the smog lifts. Down on the sixth floor is the bar Xiu, with live music and a wide-open terrace, which in its first year has already become one of the city's most popular. Causing a buzz, too, is Room BMK, a restaurant-cum-bar-cum-nightclub that recently opened in the same building as the Park Hyatt. Why the buzz? British-born Brian McKenna, Beijing's top celebrity chef. The look is splashy, too, including wall art by the fashionable Hugo Dalton.

If you're looking to extend the evening further, head to the landmark Workers' Stadium. The site is home to some of the city's funkiest new bars, like the sleek, black-furnished George. Young cocktail specialist George Zhou says he gained an interest in bartending from watching the Tom Cruise movie 'Cocktail' as a boy, but luckily his place is about the craft of cocktails, not the flash. And you can enjoy them until five in the morning.

---

THE DETAILS

Dali Courtyard

67 Xiaojingchang Hutong

Gulou Dong Dajie

86-10-8404-1439

Dianke Dianlai

8 Dafangjia Hutong,

off Chaoyangmen Nanxiaojie

86-10-6512-0930

Palette Vino

5 Dongsi Shiyitiao

86-10-6405-4855

Mosto

Third floor, Nali Patio

81 Sanlitun Beilu

86-10-5208-6030

Apothecary

Third floor, Nali Patio

81 Sanlitun Beilu

86-10-5208-6040

The Bookworm

Building 4, Nan Sanlitun Road

Duck de Chine

Gongti Beilu, behind Pacific

Department Store

86-10-6501-8881

Opposite House

11 Sanlitun Beilu

86-10-6417-6688

Xiu

Sixth floor, Yin Tai Centre

2 Jianguomenwai Dajie

86-10-8567-1838

Room bmk

Yin Tai Centre

2 Jinaguomenwai Dajie

George's

Gate 12, Worker's Stadium

86-10-6553-6299

Andrew Peaple
 

黄光裕未扳倒陈晓 争权还将继续 Vote Sets Up Gome for Further Battles

美电器控股有限公司(Gome Electrical Appliances Ltd.)股东投票否决了身陷囹圄的公司创始人黄光裕要求罢免国美电器主席的动议,不过黄光裕依然是公司最大股东,这一切说明,中国这个家电零售业巨头的控制权之争未来还会继续。

Getty Images
直击国美特别股东大会现场
周二股东投票以微弱优势否决了黄光裕要求罢免现任董事局主席陈晓、让黄光裕胞妹接任主席的动议,但是股东投票通过了黄光裕阻止增发20%新股的动议,增发新股会稀释黄光裕股权。这让黄光裕得以继续持有32.47%的国美股权。

国美董事会权力之争是中国公司历史上最为激烈的争夺战之一,而股东投票则是这场权力斗争的关键,但投票结果不太可能消除围绕国美电器产生的不确定性。黄光裕现年41岁,白手起家创立国美电器,因贿赂和其它非法业务操作被判处14年有期徒刑,现正在服刑。

《中国私有化:中国股市内幕交易》(Privatizing China: Inside China's Stock Markets)的作者侯伟(Fraser Howie)说,一个拥有公司30%股权的股东权力是很大的,我认为不可能无视他的话语权。

国美管理层周二表示,很高兴得到这样强有力的支持,希望可以与黄光裕保持顺畅、有效的沟通。国美表示,未来如果需要拓展资本业务,公司管理层将在增发新股之前寻求股东批准。陈晓没有置评。

黄光裕通过其发言人表示,很遗憾两项动议未能都获得通过。黄光裕在书面声明中表示,他和他的家人作为股东继续积极参与国美的相关事务,并且仍然确信国美已经偏离了快速、健康发展的轨道。

黄光裕的律师邹晓春与胞妹黄燕虹代表黄光裕参加了股东大会。黄光裕以4%的投票差距未能赢得罢免陈晓的动议,但以10%之差获得阻止增发新股的投票支持。

股东大会召开之前,代表国美股东的投票顾问公司Glass Lewis & Co.与Institutional Shareholder Services Inc.均声称支持陈晓,后者在黄光裕2008年末被捕后掌舵国美,带领公司度过了当时的危机,随后引入美国私募股权公司贝恩资本(Bain Capital LLC)作为公司投资人。周二的股东大会上,贝恩获得国美董事会三个席位,目前拥有国美9.98%的股权。贝恩没有置评。陈晓还拉来麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Co.)为公司制定新战略,从门店数量看,国美是中国第二大家电零售商。

Imaginechina/ZUMApress.com
北京的一家国美电器门店。
黄光裕批评陈晓管理不当,说他未拓展国美的业务,从而让竞争对手有了获得发展的可乘之机。另外,黄光裕还不满陈晓将国际公司引入国美。

香港中华总商会(China General Chamber of Commerce)官员曹锦堂(音)在投票之前说,不管哪方获胜,商会希望国美可以保持自己的民族属性。

尽管罪名在身,黄光裕的公众形象被塑造得十分正面,他聘请了公共关系代理人,为他铺垫了正面报道。

新浪(SINA Corp.)发起的一项网上调查显示,投票者更倾向支持黄光裕,而不是陈晓。支持黄光裕的人对他背负的罪名视而不见,因为企业家在中国行贿被看成是做生意的一项必要成本支出。很多中国人支持作为民族企业家的黄光裕,他从中国南方一个街头小贩成长为家电业巨头,一度还被冠以中国首富的称号。

投票之前,黄光裕曾威胁说,如果股东不支持他的动议,他将撤销国美与其名下381家私有门店的托管协议。国美则回应称,取消托管协议对公司几无影响,也就是每年损失2.3亿元(约3,500万美元)的托管费而已。目前国美经营的门店数量约1100家,所卖家电产品从冰箱、洗衣机到手机和电脑,品种繁多。

国美今年上半年收入36.5亿美元,同比涨21%,利润率从去年的3.28%跃升至5.02%。

国美股价周二涨4.6%至2.49港元。

Laurie Burkitt

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)
 
 
Gome Electrical Appliances Ltd.'s shareholders rejected a bid by imprisoned company founder Huang Guangyu to unseat the company's chairman but left Mr. Huang as the largest shareholder-all but ensuring further battles over the prominent Chinese retailer's future.

Stockholders on Tuesday narrowly rejected his resolution to replace Chairman Chen Xiao with Mr. Huang's younger sister. But shareholders supported his bid to prevent the company from issuing new stock equal to 20% of shares outstanding, which would have diluted Mr. Huang's holding. The decision maintains Mr. Huang's 32.47% stake in the company.

The vote was a pivotal event in one of the most brutal boardroom fights in China's corporate history. But it is unlikely to end the uncertainty surrounding the company built by Mr. Huang, a 41-year-old, rags-to-riches entrepreneur serving a 14-year prison sentence for bribery and other illegal business practices.

'A shareholder who owns a 30% stake in the company is going to have a lot of control,' said Fraser Howie, author of the book 'Privatizing China: Inside China's Stock Markets.' 'I don't see how you could ignore him.'

GOME's management on Tuesday said it was 'delighted to have been given such a strong endorsement' and hopes to 'maintain ongoing smooth and effective communication' with Mr. Huang. GOME (roughly pronounced gwa-may in Mandarin) said that should it need to raise capital in future, management will seek shareholder approval to issue new shares. Mr. Chen wasn't available for comment.

'I am regretful not to have won on both accounts,' Mr. Huang said through a spokesman. In a written statement, the founder said he and his family 'intend to remain active and involved shareholders' and remain convinced that 'the company has strayed from the path of profitable growth.'

Mr. Huang's lawyer, Zou Xiaochun, and the founder's sister, Huang Yanhong, represented him at the shareholder's meeting. He lost the vote on ousting Mr. Chen by a 4% margin and won the vote to prevent the share issuance by a 10% margin.

Ahead of the vote, shareholder advisory firms Glass Lewis & Co. and Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. announced their support for Mr. Chen, who took charge after Mr. Huang was taken into police custody in late 2008. Mr. Chen steered the company through the immediate crisis and then enlisted Boston-based private-equity firm Bain Capital LLC as an investor. Bain, which won three seats on GOME's board Tuesday, now owns a 9.98% stake in the company. Bain wasn't available for comment. Mr. Chen also brought in consulting firm McKinsey & Co. to chart a new strategy for China's second-largest retailer by number of stores.

Mr. Huang had criticized his protégé, Mr. Chen, for mismanaging the company, saying that by not expanding operations he allowed competitors to gain ground. Mr. Huang also criticized Mr. Chen for involving international businesses in the company.

An official of the China General Chamber of Commerce, Cao Jintang, said ahead of the vote that regardless of who won, the chamber hoped that GOME would maintain its national identity.

Mr. Huang has shaped a positive public image in spite of his conviction, hiring a public-relations representative to cultivate favorable coverage.

An Internet poll conducted by media company SINA Corp. showed that voters favored Mr. Huang over Mr. Chen. Mr. Huang's supporters have overlooked his conviction in a country where entrepreneurs are assumed to pay bribes as a typical cost of doing business. Many Chinese back Mr. Huang as a home-grown business champion who started his career selling electrical appliances from a street stall in southern China and once was named China's richest man.

In the run-up to the vote, Mr. Huang threatened to cut management contracts between GOME and 381 stores he owns if shareholders failed to support his resolutions. The company has said that severing the contracts would have little effect, causing GOME to lose 230 million yuan, or about $35 million, in annual management fees. GOME operates about 1,100 stores selling products ranging from refrigerators and washing machines to cellphones and computers.

The company's first-half revenue rose 21% from a year earlier to $3.65 billion as its profit margin jumped to 5.02% from 3.28%.

GOME's shares rose 4.6% to 2.49 Hong Kong dollars (32 U.S. cents) on Tuesday.

Laurie Burkitt
 

中国将审核医疗成本效率 China puts healthcare under scrutiny

 

根据与英国医药咨询机构新签署的一项技术合作协议,中国政府将加强对国内医疗情况成本效率的审核。

中国卫生部卫生发展研究中心(China National Health Development Research Centre)将在一系列项目上,与英国国家临床规范研究所(NICE)展开合作,包括分析肾透析和儿童白血病治疗的成本和效益。

这些研究可能为中国快速发展的医疗体系的大范围改革铺平道路。

该研究中心主任张振忠向英国《金融时报》表示:“目标是构建一个安全、高品质、价格可承受的全新医疗体制,但首先是要有效率,让所有公民都承担得起。”

医疗改革在中国是一个高度敏感的话题。对于看病无门的忧虑,近期引发了数起骚乱。同时,对改善医疗条件的需求,正给政府预算构成越来越大的压力。

不过,政府目前仍只为上述合作项目提供部分经费。到目前为止,Nice一直由英国国际发展部(Department for International Development)提供资助。Nice也正为其在华项目,向世界银行(World Bank)寻求资金支持。

近几个月,中国卫生部卫生发展研究中心在Nice的咨询人员协助下,在中国4个省份开展了一系列试点,旨在研究更具成本效率的治疗高血压、糖尿病、中风等10种疾病的方法。

译者/杨远

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034844

 

 

The Chinese government is to step up scrutiny of the cost effectiveness of its medical treatments, under a new technical co-operation agreement signed with the UK’s drug advisory body.

The China National Health Development Research Centre will start work with the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (Nice) on a range of projects including analysing the costs and benefits of kidney screening and childhood leukaemia.

The studies could pave the way for a wide-ranging restructuring of China’s fast-developing healthcare system.

Zhang Zhen Zhong, director-general of the centre, told the FT: “The aim is to create a new system of safe, good quality and affordable care, but which is first of all efficient and affordable to all citizens.”

Health reform is highly sensitive in China, with concerns over lack of access to medical care triggering recent riots while burgeoning demand for improved healthcare is placing increasing strains on the government’s budget.

However, the authorities are still providing only partial funding for the work with Nice, which up until now has been supported by the UK’s Department for International Development. Nice is currently also seeking support from the World Bank for its work in China.

Mr Zhang’s centre, which reports to the ministry of health, has tested a series of pilots with Nice consultants in recent months in four Chinese provinces to examine more cost effective approaches to 10 different treatment areas, including hypertension, diabetes and stroke.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034844/en

巴比晚宴未劝募 巴菲特赞中国慈善发展速度

http://www.sina.com.cn  2010年09月29日 19:35  新浪财经

  新浪财经讯 9月29日消息,由杨澜及“阳光文化基金会”协助、“盖茨基金会”承办的盖茨和巴菲特慈善晚宴今晚在北京昌平拉斐特城堡庄园举行。据某位到场中国富豪透露,约有50多位中国富豪参加,盖茨和巴菲特并未借助慈善晚宴对中国富豪劝募,而是注重交流。

  晚宴上,巴菲特认为中国慈善发展之快超过想象,未来发展会比美国快。“我们发展了100多年,现在有很多好的NGO,但在中国会发展的更快。”他表示,慈善捐赠是很私人的决定,到此只是和大家分享他们的经验。“我的父亲在我很小的时候就给我树立的榜样,他一生都捐赠”。

  巴菲特表示,没有因为钱而改变自己的生活方式,但他捐出的钱却可以改变千百万人的生活方式。他并告诉投身慈善事业的人们,“做慈善不要怕失败,以前我们都有许多失败。”他说,慈善工作关注的是全人类,不分国界,不论种族。

  盖茨也表示,慈善的魅力在于多样性。

  而参加晚宴的张欣在新浪微博(http://t.sina.com.cn)上谈到了对巴菲特的感受:巴菲特80岁,满脸微笑,话语中充满感激,每一个问题都很认真的听,看得出他是一位了不起的人。他说:"我没有为慈善做出什么牺牲,没有因为捐赠而少吃简用", 他的谦卑态度很能打动人心。

  赴宴富豪为财富榜和慈善榜单靠前者

  晚宴前,盖茨及巴菲特与中国富豪就中国慈善事业和自己的慈善故事做了一个半小时的沟通。

  该富豪告诉新浪财经,出席晚宴的中国富豪在财富榜和慈善榜排名靠前,嘉宾中不仅有民营企业家曹德旺、陈丽华、陈发树、王传福、郭广昌,还有民政部长李立国等数个部长及工商银行(4.01,0.01,0.25%)姜建清、中国人寿(20.90,-0.01,-0.05%)杨超、招商银行(12.66,0.05,0.40%)马蔚华等央企领导人和IT精英张朝阳、李彦宏、马云等。

  爆料富豪还透露,他此前听说受邀中国富豪为80-100人,后来缩小为50人之内,其中大部分受邀嘉宾由是由杨澜和吴征及“阳光文化基金会”帮助盖茨基金会联系,落实参加的。

  与“巴比”接触感到很尽兴

  该富豪也向新浪财经描述了慈善晚宴细节,盖茨与巴菲特于下午四点半左右到达现场,聚会五点开始。晚宴上,比尔・盖茨与巴菲特讲述了自己的慈善故事,“在与盖茨和巴菲特的接触中感受到的是重在交流,并没有压力。”爆料富豪称。

  据介绍,晚宴还安排了自动提问时间约一小时,富豪们提的问题涉及慈善的理念、如何假助商业成功经验搞好慈善、如何整个家庭来做慈善及慈善的影响等。

  很多与会人士均表示,今日沟通很必要,也很尽兴。大家很欣赏盖茨与巴菲特的坦诚,认为这对大家思考个人与企业的慈善之路大有裨益。杨澜与吴征也表示,非常高兴,觉得这次活动忙得很值得。晚宴后,大家继续各自聚集相谈。

  “巴比”曾发信强调晚宴是沟通非劝募

  据了解,此前有不少受邀富豪担心晚宴“劝捐”,杨澜、吴征与盖茨基金会就聚会定位确立为沟通而不是劝募。“杨澜、吴征及阳光文化基金会告诉我这次聚会旨在交朋友、多沟通,以构建对慈善共同认识的平台,而不会成为“劝捐”的场合。”该富豪说。

  同时,盖茨与巴菲特也曾就此两次发信予与会者,反复强调了晚宴的目的是沟通而不是劝募,取得了大家的信任。

  在会前,盖茨基金会人士透露,由于采访要求太多,盖茨与巴菲特决定在9月30日举行一场记者招待会,同时也接受《杨澜访谈录》与中央电视台两家独家专访。届时,公众可了解更多内情。

  选址拉斐特城堡传说因为风水好

  此次晚宴选址在北京北郊昌平区的拉斐特城堡酒店,晚宴前,唯一一座通向法式城堡的桥,被严密的保安控制,连拉斐特城堡未被事先审定发证的工作人员也进不去。据说,拉斐特城堡为本次活动关闭了3天,多次演习并斥资数百万人民币更新了会场家具。

  据了解,光安保就三层。第一层要凭车证进入,第二层凭请柬,而进入宴会厅居然要每人独有的密码。

  在场的记者们唠叨关于这座酒店的传说,巴比之所以选择这里举行晚宴是因为风水好,依山傍水,远离市区安全性高,加上两人喜欢欧式建筑,这刚好很合他们的口味。

  而特地从广州赶来的一位行为艺术家从下午两点钟的时候就开始等待,目的只为与巴比合影。

  拉斐特城堡建成于2007年,有一个占地3000亩的大庄园,风格酷似法国凡尔赛宫,被选入世界名城堡系列,其中温泉、高尔夫、葡萄酒窖及网球等设施一应俱全,为顶级人士会聚的场所。(俊萍 超彦 珏� 发自深圳 北京 上海)

 

http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20100929/19358727215.shtml

国际资本巨头贝恩成国美控股权之争最大赢家

http://www.sina.com.cn  2010年09月29日 04:30  经济参考报
“野蛮人”贝恩成最大赢家(图片来源:新浪财经制图)
“野蛮人”贝恩成最大赢家。(图片来源:新浪财经制图)

  “野蛮人”贝恩成最大赢家 黄陈对决见分晓

  记者 侯云龙 北京报道

  演员都未退场 高潮还在后面

  国美股东特别大会结果9月28日晚7时揭晓。大股东黄光裕提出的动议,除了“撤销配发、发行和买卖国美股份的一般授权”得以通过外,其他议案均未通过。陈晓、孙一丁留任董事会,“重选竺稼为非执行董事”、“重选Ian Andrew Reynolds为非执行董事”、“重选王励弘为非执行董事”三项动议得以通过。

  这样的结局,看上去似乎都是赢家:黄光裕股权未摊薄,陈晓留任,贝恩坐稳了董事会席位。但黄陈双方却都付出了巨大代价,不但动用了大量的人力物力,还耗费了数月的时间。对于这样一个结果,也许只有当事人才能算清其中的得失。

  伦敦花旗银行分析师梁嘉在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,黄光裕和陈晓其实已经成了输家,“折腾”了几个月,最后还是回到了国美内战前的状态,不仅搞得自己身心俱疲,还使国美业绩受到波及;而从整个事件的进展和最后的结果看,真正的赢家只有玩转资本逐利游戏的“野蛮人”贝恩。

  各方利益均得以保全

  对于股东特别大会的结果,黄家表示遗憾,但称已“将陈晓手中的刀夺下”。由于撤销董事会增发授权得以通过,黄光裕所持的国美32.47%股份将不会再被摊薄,仍将是国美第一大股东。另外,黄光裕方面还称,“暂未考虑提请再召开股东大会”。

  投票结果显示,陈晓、孙一丁、竺稼、Ian Andrew Reynolds、王励弘仍将留任国美董事会。至此,国美董事会结构未发生变化。

  国美电器新闻发言人表示高兴看到这一结果。该发言人透露,除去关联股东以外,独立股东有83%是支持现任管理层的,只有8%是支持黄光裕方面的,“这意味着独立股东对现任管理层的管理能力、业绩表现以及未来发展战略是认可的。”

  28日当天香港市场上国美股价一度大涨6%,至收盘涨4.62%,报2.49港元,成交7.65亿港元。

  国美短期或回归平稳

  本次股东特别大会投票数据显示,“重选竺稼为非执行董事”一项获得94.76%赞成票,5.24%反对票;“撤销配发、发行和买卖国美股份的一般授权”一项获得54.62%赞成票,45.38%反对票。

  对此,梁嘉认为:“这一结果说明,各利益方已经达成了和解。”梁嘉分析,数据显示28日的股东参与率为80%左右,黄光裕32.47%的股权有着40%的投票权重,说明黄光裕也投了“重选竺稼为非执行董事”的赞成票。而在5月举行的国美全体股东大会上,黄光裕反对竺稼成为非执行董事;“增发授权”被否决则说明,各方对大股东根本利益予以尊重;董事会构成未变化,可以理解为各方为保障国美稳定作出的和解。所以,可以说这一结果是逐利资本在权衡得失后做出的理性选择。

  在投票结束后,黄称双方各自发出的公告中,“和解”气息也依旧浓重。国美董事会公告称,“董事会希望就本公司未来五年发展规划与大股东进行进一步的沟通与探讨,力求共同就本公司的发展方式达成共识”。而黄光裕一方公告则表示,“我们依然坚信国美拥有长期的发展潜力,并计划继续积极参与国美的相关事务。”

  梁嘉认为,国美短期有望回归平稳,黄光裕和贝恩作为国美的前两大股东,目前利益一致,都不希望国美继续动荡下去。从投票结果看,也反映出这一诉求。

  国美方面代言人在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,“相信所有的人都愿意看到一个稳定的国美”,这会为所有的股东带来更多利益。该人士还称,未来管理层将维护国美的稳定,同时相信黄光裕“暂不召开股东大会”的决定,也是希望国美有稳定的发展局面。

  但也有分析认为,国美长期将陷入反复的内斗中。因为,大股东的绝大多数动议没有得到满足,休养生息后会卷土再来;而陈晓和贝恩也不愿见到依旧是“庞然大物”的黄光裕,因此会想方设法对其进行打压。

  贝恩成最大赢家

  整个国美内战告一段落后,贝恩只用了16亿元,就获得了国美9.98%股权,市值超过38.4亿元,收益率超140%。如果当初贝恩任由大股东将陈晓扫地出门,根据协议,其约16亿元的投资,也能收回24亿元,收益率为50%;9月15日,在贝恩实施债转股后,获得国美9.98%股权,按照当日的国美电器收盘价2.34港元计算,贝恩持股市值为37.4亿元,投资收益率高达137%。

  梁嘉认为,从今年4月开始和国美接触,不到8个月,贝恩就获利22.4亿元,收益率超140%。不仅如此,贝恩还在11人的国美董事会中拥有4个席位,比重超过40%。如果将陈晓和孙一丁也算作贝恩一方的盟友,那么贝恩在董事会中的“势力”已超过半数。仅以此就说明贝恩是此次国美内战中的最大赢家。

  他分析,如果黄光裕大幅抛售国美股票,贝恩可能迅速取代黄光裕家族成为国美的第一大股东,届时将真正控制国美。如果贝恩不谋求对国美的最终控制,其拥有的国美股权仍可为自己带来丰厚的利润。如果黄光裕和陈晓任何一方想要接手,溢价收购会使贝恩得到更多。

  伦敦政治经济学院国际管理专业博士邓宣向《经济参考报》记者介绍,贝恩作为股东,其正当利益会引起黄光裕一方的重视。如果黄光裕仍想谋求自己的大股东地位,甚至是对国美的控制权,就会以适当的利益来和贝恩做交易。

  此前,黄光裕多次以公开函形式承诺将非上市门店注入上市公司,此举一旦成型,无疑将使国美受益,而贝恩所持股权的含金量,也将进一步提高。目前,黄光裕表示不会履行这一承诺,但如果想要继续保全大股东地位,黄光裕仍有可能以此做筹码和贝恩谈判。

  邓宣表示,作为国际资本,贝恩不仅在中国投资了国美,在世界范围内还和多家零售企业、家电产业链上下游的生产、配套企业有千丝万缕的联系。例如,贝恩的资金中,有相当的比重来自百思买。如果贝恩以国美为渠道,将一些国外的产品、服务和企业引入中国市场,将获取更多利益。如果条件允许,贝恩还有可能谋求行业垄断地位。比如,利用国内家电销售渠道,倒逼国内家电厂商,从而获得定价权。

  高潮还在后面

  从目前的局势看,国美的这场资本游戏远未结束。

  在投票结束后,黄光裕一方已经宣布剥离非上市部分门店,独自经营。这不但会使国美失去每年约2亿元的托管费,还有可能在市场上造成“两个国美”自相残杀的乱局。届时,上市部分门店和非上市部分门店在采购中将无法以统一身份,与供应商议价,很有可能失去价格优势。更为严重的是,国美还会陷入新一轮的内战中。

  业内资深律师陈良告诉《经济参考报》记者,除了非上市门店外,“国美”品牌同样会对国美造成伤害。目前国美电器拥有“国美”品牌在内地和香港的使用权,但其所有权却属于黄光裕,而且国美的使用权也将在2014年到期。届时,国美不得不面临“改名”的窘境。另外,如果黄光裕提前要求收回使用权,那么将会引发新一轮的争斗。

  陈晓的结局也令人关注。分析人士称,虽然陈晓保住了自己在国美董事局的地位,但黄光裕一方已表示出对其留任的不满。如果大股东因此再次要求召开股东大会,将给国美制造新一轮的混乱。另外,贝恩方面对于“麻烦制造者”陈晓未来的态度也有可能出现变化。如果因为陈晓留任,继续使国美无法稳定,作为追求利润最大化的贝恩,也有理由将陈晓扫地出门。

  粱嘉认为,国美的未来5年计划能否顺利实施,也可能出现变数。如果贝恩采取国际化运作,通过百思买引入国外企业,那么国美的议价能力有可能再次被挤压,最终成为外资进军中国的渠道。届时,不但是国美将丧失“民族品牌”的身份,国内家电零售企业和家电制造商,都有可能受到冲击。

 

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