如此说来，1美元兑82日元是日本方面的底线？周三早间，当日元接近这个水平、升至1美元兑82.88日元时，财务大臣野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)下达了指令。日本官方随即开始大举抛售日元。
即时效益十分明显。到纽约汇市开盘时，日元已下跌3.4%，至1美元兑85.7日元。日本股市大涨；日经225(Nikkei 225)指数中当日只有8只股票下跌。领涨的是汽车制造商马自达(Mazda)、丰田(Toyota)以及富士重工(Fuji Heavy Industries)旗下的斯巴鲁(Subaru)，这些企业一直强烈要求政府干预汇市。
不过，就更长期而言，前景不那么明朗。日元汇率仍高于仅仅两周多一点之前；要进一步压低日元，可能需要美联储(Federal Reserve)和欧洲央行(European Central Bank)的配合，而这两家央行似乎对各自货币目前的汇率水平相当满意。交易员们对于日本央行在这样的情况下继续压低日元的能力表示怀疑，是可以理解的。日本出口商现在或许会少一些叫嚷要把生产迁往海外，但即使在日元汇率低得多的时候，他们也在这样做。
同样重大的是日本在袖手6年后重新进场干预汇市的全局影响。1美元兑82日元也许只是一个便利的门槛：在周二举行的民主党党魁选举秘密投票中，有200名议员没有投票支持首相菅直人(Naoto Kan)。对保住了首相位置的菅直人来说，要争取这200名议员的支持，最好的方法就是在获胜后数小时内采纳其挑战者的主要政策之一。但是，旨在加强国内权力基础的举动，可能加剧其它地方的摩擦。想想今日将在华盛顿开会的美国众议院筹款委员会(House Ways and Means Committee)吧。既然G7的一个创始成员兑现了其操纵汇率的威胁，该委员会又怎能对中国的汇率操纵采取强硬立场呢？
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
So 82 was the line in the sand? As the yen approached that level on Wednesday morning, strengthening to 82.88 against the US dollar, finance minister Yoshihiko Noda gave the order. Heavy yen selling ensued.
The immediate benefits were obvious. By the time trading was under way in New York, the yen had dropped 3.4 per cent, reaching 85.7 to the dollar. Equities roared; only eight stocks on the Nikkei 225 fell for the day. Gains were led by carmakers Mazda, Toyota and Fuji Heavy Industries, producer of the Subaru, which had been among the most vociferous supporters of intervention.
Longer-term, though, the outlook is murkier. The yen is still stronger than it was just over a fortnight ago; further weakening may require collusion with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which seem quite happy with their currencies where they are. Traders are understandably sceptical that the BoJ will be able to keep the yen down in these circumstances. Japanese exporters may now make a little less noise about uprooting domestic production, but they were doing that anyway, while the yen was much weaker.
Just as significant is the wider impact of Japan’s re-embrace of intervention after six years of abstinence. 82 may have been a threshold of convenience: there seems no better way for prime minister Naoto Kan to reach out to those 200 lawmakers in his party who didn’t vote for him in Tuesday’s secret leadership ballot, than to adopt one of his challenger’s flagship policies within hours of victory. But a move to shore up a domestic power base may exacerbate frictions elsewhere. Consider the US House Ways and Means Committee, convening today in Washington. How can it take a tough line on China’s currency manipulation, now that a founding member of the G7 has followed through on its threat to manipulate?
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