越来越多的迹象表明，自诩历史与中华人民共和国几乎同样悠久的中国国有大型企业集团——中化集团(Sinochem)正在考虑如何阻挠必和必拓(BHP Billiton)对加拿大钾肥(PotashCorp)出价390亿美元的敌意收购。
一家高唱"第三次长征"口号的公司，可不是每天都筹划着要去搅黄一桩国际并购交易。但从中化集团的历史及其在共产主义中国的渊源，我们可以捕捉到一些蛛丝马迹，据此推测它可能以什么方式参与竞购。
参与相关讨论的人士向英国《金融时报》透露，尽管中化集团目前尚未向加拿大钾肥发出正式要约，但一直在仔细研究如何阻挠必和必拓的敌意收购。
如果以这家中国企业越来越雄心勃勃的收购模式来推测，中化集团可能不久就会发出收购要约。
中国一家报纸上周日报道称，中化集团已向政府递交了竞购加拿大钾肥的正式申请。而中国商务部上周在新闻发布会上就已表示，将"密切关注"必和必拓对加拿大钾肥的收购行动。
中化集团可能以何种方式、在何时出手，存在许多不确定性，但参与讨论的人士表示，一种可能的方案是：由中投公司(CIC)之类的亚洲机构提供融资，与加拿大养老基金之类的合作伙伴组成财团，联手竞购。
一位知情人士透露，中化集团起初无意竞购加拿大钾肥，但自从政府下达指示，要求研究如何阻挠必和必拓的竞购后，中化集团就开始认真考虑参与竞购。
中化集团在其年报中表示，其使命是"服从服务于国家政治稳定、经济发展和社会进步的大局"。要实现这一目标，日益意味着需要在海外追逐资源。
中化集团成立于1950年，原名"中国化工进出口总公司"(China National Chemicals Import and Export Corporation)，核心业务原本是石油贸易，经过扩张，该集团旗下的公司还涉足农药、化肥、化工、种子和房地产等领域。
中化集团从2003年开始进行海外收购，买入了突尼斯一个油田的少数权益，这是他们在油气生产领域的第一笔海外投资。数月后，该集团以1亿美元价格，收购了一个厄瓜多尔油田14%的权益。
如今，中化集团在油气领域的投资遍及也门、阿联酋、哥伦比亚、秘鲁、叙利亚、印尼、巴西和中国。
在这些投资中，中化集团大多是持有油气资产的被动性少数权益，但如今该集团的目标往往是全面收购。去年，中化集团就以5.32亿英镑（合8.32亿美元）的价格，收购了在英国上市的油气公司Emerald Energy。
去年中化集团也曾试图以26亿澳元（合24亿美元）的价格，收购澳大利亚农业化学用品集团新农公司(Nufarm)。但经过漫长的追逐，谈判最终于去年12月破裂。当时中化集团把对新农公司的出价从每股13澳元降到了12澳元。数日后，日本住友化学株式会社(Sumitomo Chemical Corp)似乎棋高一着，同意以每股14澳元的价格，收购新农公司20%的拦截性股权。
中化集团从这桩交易中学到了宝贵的经验。受保密协议限制，中化集团拒绝披露在延长尽职调查期间有什么发现。但后来情况明朗化：中化集团感到不安的是新农公司的债务和基本盈利状况。今年以来，新农公司发布了一系列盈利预警。上周五收盘时，该公司股价已跌至每股4.06澳元。
一位了解此笔交易内情的人士表示："这次中方很幸运，没有通过支付过高价格而学到经验。当时人们嘲笑他们进行了一次拙劣的交易……但是，如果你担心一项业务的基本质量，你就不要去投资。"
为在澳大利亚进行交易的中国企业提供建议的一位咨询师表示，中国企业更倾向于采取与其它公司联手的方式来寻求交易。联合竞购会降低财务风险，在投资方是国有实体的情况下，有助于减少监管障碍，而个体竞标者可以提供自身的专业经验。该咨询师表示："他们不是不惜代价的那种类型，他们不会被用作棋子。"
另一位为中化集团所涉及交易做过相关工作的人士表示，中化集团负责交易的团队"相当老练"。今年春季，中化集团成功竞购挪威国家石油公司(Statoil)旗下油田Peregrino的部分权益。一位参与该交易的人士表示，挪威国家石油公司之所以选择中化集团作为合作伙伴，是因为欣赏中化集团谈判代表们的行事方式。
不过，目前还很难说中化集团会怎样把这些经验应用到竞购加拿大钾肥上。中化集团单独或与其它公司联手竞购，都必须经过加拿大监管机构批准。而更为复杂的是，根据加拿大法律，即使获得目标公司的少数股权，也很难达到阻挠收购的目标。
此外，仅就规模而言，中化集团收购加拿大钾肥可谓是雄心勃勃。必和必拓对加拿大钾肥的出价是390亿美元，比中化集团2009年末的资产总额高出140亿美元。
但中化集团最终是否决定竞购，可能不止取决于商业上的考虑。中国是全球最大的钾肥进口国，钾肥是一种重要的化肥，而中化集团把粮食安全视为自己的使命之一。
中化集团在2009年年报中表示："展望未来，我们将继续把国家农业生产和粮食安全作为我们的责任……农业安全是中国国民经济稳定的基础和社会长治久安的重要保障。"
中化集团拒绝就本文接受采访。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034730
Signs are growing that Sinochem, a state-owned conglomerate that prides itself on being almost as old as the People's Republic of China, is considering ways to block BHP Billiton's $39bn hostile bid for PotashCorp.
It's not every day that a company whose slogan is "the third Long March" – a reference to the arduous wartime journey undertaken by Mao Zedong and his troops in the 1930s – sets out to disrupt a global M&A deal. But Sinochem's history and roots in communist China, yield indicators as to how it might approach its own bid.
Although the Chinese chemicals and energy conglomerate has yet to make a formal offer for the Canadian fertiliser company, the group has been looking closely at ways to block BHP's hostile takeover, people involved in the discussions have told the Financial Times.
If an offer was forthcoming, it would fit into a pattern of increasingly ambitious acquisitions by the Chinese group.
On Sunday, a Chinese newspaper reported that Sinochem had submitted a formal application for government approval for a bid. The Ministry of Commerce said at a press conference last week that it would pay "close attention" to BHP's bid for PotashCorp.
There has been much uncertainty about how and when the Chinese company might jump in, but people involved in the discussions say a consortium bid with Canadian partners such as a pension fund and financial backing from an Asian funder such as CIC was a likely option.
Sinochem was initially not interested in a bid for PotashCorp but began serious discussions about a bid when ordered by the government to investigate ways to block BHP, according to one person familiar with the situation.
Sinochem's mandate is to serve "the greater good of the national political stability, economic development, and social progress," according to its annual report, and that goal has increasingly meant pursuing resources overseas.
Founded in 1950 as the China National Chemicals Import and Export Corporation, Sinochem's core business was originally oil trading but the group has expanded to include subsidiaries that work in pesticides, fertilisers, chemicals, seeds and real estate.
Sinochem's overseas acquisitions kicked off in 2003, with the purchase of a minority stake in an oilfield in Tunisia, marking their first investment in oil and gas production. That was followed a few months later by a $100m purchase of a 14 per cent stake in an Ecuadorean oilfield.
Today, Sinochem's oil and gas block investments have grown to include Yemen, UAE, Colombia, Peru, Syria, Indonesia, Brazil and China.
Many of those deals saw Sinochem take a passive minority stake in the oil assets, but the group is now reaching for outright acquisitions. Last year, Sinochem acquired UK-listed Emerald Energy, an oil and gas company, for £532m ($832m).
Sinochem also tried to acquire Nufarm, the Australian agricultural chemicals group, for A$2.6bn ($2.4bn) last year. After a lengthy courtship, talks collapsed last December when the Chinese group cut its offer price for Nufarm from A$13-A$12 a share. Within days, Japan's Sumitomo Chemical Corp appeared to outmanoeuvre Sinochem when it agreed to buy a 20 per cent blocking stake in Nufarm at A$14 a share.
Sinochem learnt valuable lessons from the deal. Bound by confidentiality agreements, the Chinese group declined to make public what it discovered during its extended due diligence process. However, it has since become clear that Sinochem was worried about Nufarm's debts and its underlying earnings. The Australian group has issued a number of profits warnings this year and its shares languished at A$4.06 at Friday's close.
"In Beijing they are counting their lucky stars. They did not learn the hard way by overpaying," one person close to the failed deal said. "They were pilloried at the time for a ham-fisted transaction . . . But you don't invest if you are worried about the underlying quality of the business."
An adviser to Chinese groups undertaking deals in Australia adds that they are more likely to pursue deals in partnership with other companies. Joint bids cut financial exposure, can help mitigate regulatory hurdles when investments are being made by state-owned entities, while individual bidders can provide their own expertise. "They are not pay-at-all-costs types and they will not be used as pawns," he said.
Sinochem's transaction team is "pretty sophisticated," said another person who worked on deals in which the Chinese company was involved. This spring, Sinochem won a bid for a stake in Statoil's Peregrino oilfield, and a person involved in the deal says Statoil chose the Chinese group as a partner because they liked the way Sinochem's negotiators conducted themselves.
But it is still hard to tell how Sinochem will apply these lessons to a bid for PotashCorp. A bid by Sinochem or by a consortium that includes it would have to receive Canadian regulatory approval. Further complicating the picture are Canadian laws that make it difficult to block a takeover by taking a minority stake in the target company.
Moreover for Sinochem, the deal is ambitious in size alone. The $39bn price tag on Potash is $14bn more than Sinochem's total assets at the end of 2009.
But Sinochem's ultimate decision of whether to bid may be based on more than commercial considerations. China is the world's largest importer of potash, a key crop fertiliser, and Sino-chem considers food security part of its mandate.
"Looking into the future, we will continue to take China's agricultural production and food security as our responsibility," states Sinochem's 2009 annual report. "Agricultural security serves as the foundation for China's steady economic growth, and is related to the long-term stability of the society."
Sinochem declined requests for interviews for this article.
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