中国经济经过几个月的减速后，似乎正在企稳，从而降低了以下风险：即随着全球金融危机后出台的刺激措施逐渐取消，中国经济可能遭遇“硬着陆”。
继上月进口猛增的数据公布后，周末发布的各项数据显示，中国国内需求保持强劲，这些数据似乎还表明，政府可能能够避免经济增长速度骤减——这是全球投资者密切关注的事情。
中国政府表示，8月份的工业产值和零售销售额增速均比7月份更快，逆转了此前4个月扩张速度逐渐减慢的趋势。
中国经济“正处于理想状态——不太热，也不太冷，”渣打银行(Standard Chartered)驻上海的经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示。“我们相信这是一组利好数据，显示中国经济已不再减速。”
在8月份的数据中，主要的不和谐音符是居民消费价格指数(CPI)继续上扬，从上月的3.3%升至3.5%。多数分析师相信，这主要归因于今夏洪水给食品价格造成的临时影响。食品价格现在正在回落，降低了官方提高利率、以抑制通胀压力的需要。
“你不需要为了应对猪肉短缺而上调利率，”Stone & McCarthy驻北京经济学家汤姆•奥尔利克(Tom Orlik)表示。8月份，中国的工业品出厂价格指数涨幅低于7月份。
不过，一些经济学家主张，随着工资上涨，中国可能正进入一个通胀持续高企的阶段。通胀高企还意味着实际利率为负值，随着储蓄者为了得到更高回报而转向别的资产类别，这可能提高资产价格泡沫的风险。
中国经济扩张速度已连续几个月放缓。此前中国政府在4月份出台旨在打击房地产投机的措施，指示各银行限制向地方政府提供信贷，还推动关闭效率低下的重工业工厂。官方允许人民币相对于美元温和升值，包括上周的0.5%升值，当时一个白宫高级官员代表团正在北京访问。
不过，高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，“自7月份以来政策悄悄放松了”，官方悄悄加快了对新基建项目的投资，尤其是在西部和中部地区，以求遏止经济放缓势头。
8月份工业产值的反弹力度超出预期，同比增长13.9%，高于7月份的13.4%。零售销售额的增长速度也超出预期水平，同比增长18.4%，高于7月份的17.9%。
今年头8个月，中国固定资产投资同比增长24.8%。8月份银行新增贷款达到5452亿元人民币，而M2货币供应量同比增长19.2%，高于7月份的17.6%。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034579
The Chinese economy appears to be stabilising after several months of slowdown, reducing the risk that the country will suffer a hard landing as post-crisis stimulus is withdrawn.
Coming on top of a surge in imports last month, figures released over the weekend indicated that domestic demand remains robust and suggested that the authorities will likely be able to avoid an abrupt slowing in economic growth, a matter of intense concern among investors globally.
The government said industrial production and retail sales both grew more quickly in August than in July, reversing the trend of the previous four months of slowing expansion.
The Chinese economy “is in a bit of a sweet spot – not too hot, and not too cold,” said Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai. “We believe this is a positive set of data which shows the economy has ended its deceleration.”
The main discordant note in the August figures was a continued rise in consumer price inflation, which increased to 3.5 per cent from 3.3 per cent the month before. Most analysts believe this was largely due to the temporary impact of summer floods on food prices, which are now falling again, reducing the need for an interest rate hike to dampen inflationary pressures.
“You do not need to raise interest rates to deal with a shortage of pigs,” said Tom Orlik, an economist at Stone & McCarthy in Beijing. Factory gate inflation was lower last month than in July.
Some economists though argue that China could be entering a period of persistently higher inflation as wages rise. The elevated level of inflation also means that real interest rates are negative, raising the risk of asset price bubbles as bank depositors seek higher returns elsewhere.
Chinese economic expansion has been slowing for several months after the government launched a crackdown on property speculation in April, told banks to restrict credit to local governments and pushed for inefficient heavy industry to be closed. The authorities have allowed the currency to appreciate modestly against the US dollar, including a 0.5 per cent increase last week when a delegation of senior White House officials was in Beijing.
Yet Goldman Sachs said that there has been a “a stealth policy loosening since July” as the authorities sought to arrest the slowdown by quietly accelerating investment in new infrastructure projects, especially in western and central regions.
Industrial production in August rebounded more strongly than expected to increase by 13.9 per cent from a year before, compared to a 13.4 per cent rise in July. Retail sales also expanded faster than forecast, rising by 18.4 per cent year-on-year, up from 17.9 per cent in July.
Fixed asset investment rose 24.8 per cent in the first eight months of the year, compared to the same period the year before. New bank loans during August reached Rmb545.2bn, while the rate of growth of M2 measure of money supply increased to 19.2 per cent year-on-year, from 17.6 per cent.
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