官
方近期一系列言论显示，中国政府仍致力于压低房价，尽管人们仍在担心全球经济疲弱，且地产开发商抱怨不断。
Reuters
广州的一个住宅小区
尽管政府措施4月份就出台了，但中国大城市的房价没有下降多少，最近几周房屋销量实际上还上升了，显示这些措施没有达到其宣称的抑制投机性购房和让人们买得起房屋的目标。
政府官员尽管一方面强调致力于支持增长，但同时也明确表示还需要做更多工作以稳定楼市。国家发改委主任张平上周对全国人大常委会表示，“目前部分大中城市住房价格仍然过高。”
张平说：“下半年，政府将进一步落实遏制部分城市住房价格过快上涨的措施，坚决抑制投资投机性购房需求。”
官方一系列言论，包括央行一名顾问、一家银行监管机构以及国有媒体述评都一致认为：仍需调降房价。
分析师说，如果改变作法，将损及政府的公信力。许多城市居民认为，过去一年房价大涨使他们很难拥有一套房子。政府反复重申强硬的政策措施不会改变，但如果经济增长的放缓速度快于预期，中国政府则没有什么回旋的余地。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家马骏说，这些紧缩措施至少还要持续几个月。他特别指出，中国政府还在推行其他限制性措施，比如控制放贷、加强对公共项目工程的监管，以及关闭耗能工厂等。
中国内地以及蓬勃发展的香港、新加坡等其他亚洲经济体大力降温房地产市场之际，日本正出台一套新的经济刺激方案，美国也在寻找支持经济扩张的各种途径。相形之下，绝大多数预测者预计中国的经济增长今年年底将从上半年的11.1%放慢至8%-9%，这个水平仍旧较高。据周三发布的、受到密切关注的采购经理人指数(purchasing mangers' indices)显示，中国核心制造业8月继续保持扩张。
中国4月出台的房地产降温政策包括：针对很多购房人提高购房首付款和抵押贷款利率要求、对非本地居民购房设限以及开工建设更多经适房等。
起初这些举措似乎达到了预期效果，很快使一个急速发展的房地产市场冷了下来。6月和7月交易量减少，全国平均房价走低。
但是房市未出现大调整。房地产咨询公司搜房的新鲜数据表明，其调查的全国30个大城市里，绝大多数8月实际房价要高于7月，其中包括房地产价格已在全国数一数二的首都北京，8月环比上涨12.3%。
楼市成交量也出现反弹，广州和宁波等南方城市的房屋价格回到了政府出台新政之前的水平。
加拿大皇家银行(Royal Bank of Canada)经济师杰克逊(Brian Jackson)说，最近的数据应使北京进一步认识到，现在更改今年早些时候实施的楼市紧缩政策不合时宜。
中国共产党的喉舌《人民日报》周二的一篇社论加强了这一观点。社论表示，房地产价格依然高位运行而没有下跌迹象，紧缩政策的效果仍远未达到普通百姓的期望。
作为中国政府智囊团的国家信息中心的徐策在本周公布的一份报告中说，中国政府应小心行事，不要打击为国家整体经济提供主要支持的房地产投资。但是他也同意有必要抑制房地产价格上涨，避免发生潜在的银行业危机与广泛的政治压力。
徐策在报告中说，房地产价格过快增长现在已不仅是经济问题，而是关系国计民生和社会稳定的问题。
Andrew Batson
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
A series of official comments in recent days has shown that the Chinese government remains committed to forcing down housing prices, despite worries about a weak global economy and complaints from property developers.
The government's determination to keep cracking down on its frothy real-estate market may be a political necessity but risks hurting growth at a time when much of the world economy is weak, and contrasts sharply with efforts in the U.S. and Japan to add fuel to the fading global recovery.
Despite government measures in place since April, property prices have not fallen much in major Chinese cities, and housing sales have actually picked up in the last few weeks -- signs the measures aren't achieving their declared aim of curbing speculative purchases and making homes more affordable.
Government officials, while emphasizing they are committed to supporting growth, are unequivocal that more needs to be done to fix the housing market. China's chief economic planner, Zhang Ping, told the nation's legislature last week: 'Current housing prices in some large and medium-sized cities are still too high.'
For the rest of the year, the government will 'further implement measures to contain the overly rapid rise of housing prices in some cities, and curb speculative and investment demand for housing,' said Mr. Zhang, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission.
A range of official voices, including an adviser to the central bank, a banking regulator, and commentaries in state media, have agreed: Housing prices still need to come down.
Changing course now would hurt the government's credibility with the public, analysts say. Many urban Chinese feel the surge in property prices over the past year has put home ownership out of their reach. Yet the repeated promises that tough policies will not be changed could also leave Beijing with less room to maneuver if growth slows more sharply than anticipated.
'These tightening measures will have to continue for at least a few more months,' said Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma. China's government is also pushing ahead with other restrictive measures, he noted, such as controls on lending, tighter supervision of public-works projects and closings of energy-wasting factories.
The drive to cool property markets in China -- as well as in other booming Asian economies like Hong Kong and Singapore -- comes as Japan is rolling out a new stimulus package and the U.S. looks for ways to bolster its own expansion. By contrast, most forecasters expect China's economic growth to ease to a still-rapid 8% to 9% by the end of this year, from 11.1% in the first half. And its core manufacturing sector continued to expand in August, according to the closely-watched purchasing mangers' indices issued Wednesday.
The measures introduced in April included higher down payments and mortgage rates for many home buyers, limits on purchases by nonresidents and more construction of affordable housing.
At first, the moves seemed to have their intended effect, quickly cooling a booming market: Sales fell, and nationwide average housing prices were flat in both June and July.
But there hasn't yet been a major adjustment. New figures from Soufun, a real-estate consultancy, show property prices were actually higher in August than July for most of the 30 major cities it surveys. That includes a 12.3% rise in the capital city of Beijing, which already has some of the nation's highest prices.
Housing sales have also rebounded, and in southern cities such as Guangzhou and Ningbo they are back to levels reached before the government's new policies started.
The latest data 'should strengthen Beijing's view that a reversal of policy tightening measures put in place earlier this year is not appropriate for the time being,' said Brian Jackson, an economist for Royal Bank of Canada.
A commentary in the People's Daily, the Communist Party's newspaper, Tuesday reinforced the message: 'With house prices still high and not falling, the results of the policies are still quite far from what ordinary people expect,' the commentary said.
Xu Ce of the State Information Center, a government think tank, said in a report this week that the government needs to be careful not to crush real-estate investment, which is a major support for the broader economy. But he agreed that containing the rise in house prices is necessary to avoid a potential banking crisis, and broader political strains.
'The overly rapid rise in real-estate prices is now not just an economic problem, but an issue that affects the lives of a majority of people as well as social stability,' Mr. Xu wrote in the report.
Andrew Batson
The government's determination to keep cracking down on its frothy real-estate market may be a political necessity but risks hurting growth at a time when much of the world economy is weak, and contrasts sharply with efforts in the U.S. and Japan to add fuel to the fading global recovery.
Despite government measures in place since April, property prices have not fallen much in major Chinese cities, and housing sales have actually picked up in the last few weeks -- signs the measures aren't achieving their declared aim of curbing speculative purchases and making homes more affordable.
Government officials, while emphasizing they are committed to supporting growth, are unequivocal that more needs to be done to fix the housing market. China's chief economic planner, Zhang Ping, told the nation's legislature last week: 'Current housing prices in some large and medium-sized cities are still too high.'
For the rest of the year, the government will 'further implement measures to contain the overly rapid rise of housing prices in some cities, and curb speculative and investment demand for housing,' said Mr. Zhang, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission.
A range of official voices, including an adviser to the central bank, a banking regulator, and commentaries in state media, have agreed: Housing prices still need to come down.
Changing course now would hurt the government's credibility with the public, analysts say. Many urban Chinese feel the surge in property prices over the past year has put home ownership out of their reach. Yet the repeated promises that tough policies will not be changed could also leave Beijing with less room to maneuver if growth slows more sharply than anticipated.
'These tightening measures will have to continue for at least a few more months,' said Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma. China's government is also pushing ahead with other restrictive measures, he noted, such as controls on lending, tighter supervision of public-works projects and closings of energy-wasting factories.
The drive to cool property markets in China -- as well as in other booming Asian economies like Hong Kong and Singapore -- comes as Japan is rolling out a new stimulus package and the U.S. looks for ways to bolster its own expansion. By contrast, most forecasters expect China's economic growth to ease to a still-rapid 8% to 9% by the end of this year, from 11.1% in the first half. And its core manufacturing sector continued to expand in August, according to the closely-watched purchasing mangers' indices issued Wednesday.
The measures introduced in April included higher down payments and mortgage rates for many home buyers, limits on purchases by nonresidents and more construction of affordable housing.
At first, the moves seemed to have their intended effect, quickly cooling a booming market: Sales fell, and nationwide average housing prices were flat in both June and July.
But there hasn't yet been a major adjustment. New figures from Soufun, a real-estate consultancy, show property prices were actually higher in August than July for most of the 30 major cities it surveys. That includes a 12.3% rise in the capital city of Beijing, which already has some of the nation's highest prices.
Housing sales have also rebounded, and in southern cities such as Guangzhou and Ningbo they are back to levels reached before the government's new policies started.
The latest data 'should strengthen Beijing's view that a reversal of policy tightening measures put in place earlier this year is not appropriate for the time being,' said Brian Jackson, an economist for Royal Bank of Canada.
A commentary in the People's Daily, the Communist Party's newspaper, Tuesday reinforced the message: 'With house prices still high and not falling, the results of the policies are still quite far from what ordinary people expect,' the commentary said.
Xu Ce of the State Information Center, a government think tank, said in a report this week that the government needs to be careful not to crush real-estate investment, which is a major support for the broader economy. But he agreed that containing the rise in house prices is necessary to avoid a potential banking crisis, and broader political strains.
'The overly rapid rise in real-estate prices is now not just an economic problem, but an issue that affects the lives of a majority of people as well as social stability,' Mr. Xu wrote in the report.
Andrew Batson
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