随着通用汽车(General Motors)宣布期待已久的雪佛兰伏特(Chevrolet Volt)插电式电动汽车进入中国市场，人们的感觉是，电动车的时代终于要来临了。
伏特将于今年年底开始在美国销售，在中国要到明年。在全球汽车制造商正在掀起的锂电池驱动汽车大规模生产浪潮中，这款车将成为首发车型之一。这款车有点像亨利•福特(Henry Ford)与托马斯•爱迪生(Thomas Edison)身后合作设计的一款汽车。但，中国人会买账吗？
消除“里程焦虑”
通用汽车表示，伏特是世界唯一一款“增程型”电动车，消除了被称为“里程焦虑”的后现代症候（担心你的汽车会在前不着村后不着店的地方耗尽电量）。伏特的电池可供其行使60公里（通用汽车表示这足以满足大部分通勤需求）——然后利用汽油“引擎/发电机”还能再跑450公里。汽车业分析师、克莱斯勒(Chrysler)中国公司前负责人罗威(Bill Russo)表示，伏特“有可能成为迄今为止推出的第一款真正大规模生产的电动车”。
然而，尽管昨日的伏特中国发布仪式热闹非凡，但通用汽车对于其在中国的初期销售并不乐观。通用汽车不愿透露伏特在中国的售价，但在美国，价格为4.1万美元（再扣除7500美元的抵税额度）。
上哪儿找插座？
中国政府对于电动汽车节约能源、改善环境的潜能极其乐观，但购买伏特并不能享受补贴（至少依照目前的政府规定是如此）。通用汽车高管坦言，只有急于展现环保意识的中国富人才可能购买伏特。
通用汽车称，购买这款车的中国消费者每年可节省约2000美元的汽油费，夜里只需将汽车电池插入家中墙上的插座便能充电。但许多中国驾车人住在高耸的公寓大楼里，根本没有方便的插座可用；而如果他们支付4.1万美元买回家的汽车，却必须开到马路上去充电，他们很可能会三思。
清洁能源的诱惑
与此同时，中国汽车制造商纷纷忙着推出自己的电动汽车——价格与品质均远低于伏特。分析师们认为，中国最终会成为全球电动汽车的主要生产国及市场，因为中国私家车保有量低，电池产能巨大，政府也渴望减少污染、改进能效。
最近中国在5个城市推出了试点项目，为购买电动车的消费者提供高达5万至6万元人民币的补贴，并大举投资兴建充电设施。中国政府的计划是，到2020年，中国的清洁能源汽车将达到500万辆。
但深圳中投顾问(China Investment Consulting Corp)的分析师李胜茂表示，尽管他对于中国的电动车市场很乐观，但他认为这类车辆的市场份额在未来5年内不会超过2%。而伏特虽然可能是最早押注于这个微小市场的品牌，但它远不会是最后一个。
译者/管婧
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034410
As General Motors announced the arrival of its long-awaited Chevrolet Volt plug-in electric vehicle in China, there was a feeling that the age of the electric vehicle may finally have dawned.
The Volt - which will be sold in the US from the end of this year, and in China next year - will be among the first in a wave of mass-produced electric cars powered by lithium-ion batteries from global automakers. It’s as if Henry Ford and Thomas Edison got together to design a car: posthumously. But will anyone in China buy it?
(Price) range anxiety?
GM says the car is the world’s only “extended range” electric vehicle, taking away the postmodern malaise known as “range anxiety” (fear that your car will run out of electricity in the middle of nowhere). Volt can run 60 kilometres on its electric battery - far enough to cover most commutes, GM says - and 450 more on its petrol-powered “engine/generator”, GM says. Bill Russo, auto analyst and former head of Chrysler in China, says the Volt “has the potential to be the first true high volume electric vehicle to launch to date”.
But despite all the razzmatazz at today’s Chinese launch of the Volt, the automaker is far from sanguine about initial sales in China. Detroit will not say how much Volt will cost in China, but in the US, the price is $41,000 (less a $7,500 tax credit).
A plug-in without any plugs
In China, where the government is super-bullish about the potential for such vehicles as a way to save energy and improve the environment, the Volt will not qualify for a subsidy (at least according to current government regulations). GM officials admit candidly that only wealthy Chinese, eager to make a statement about environmental awareness, are likely to buy one.
Chinese buyers can save about $2,000 a year on petrol costs, GM says, plugging it into the wall at home at night to recharge. But many Chinese car owners live in high rise apartments without a convenient wall socket; and if they have to pay the equivalent of $41,000 for the pleasure of owning a car they need to take down the road to recharge, they may well decline.
Cleaning up
Meanwhile Chinese carmakers are rushing to produce their own forms of electrical propulsion - aiming at price and quality levels well below the Volt. Eventually, China could become the world’s leading producer and market for electric vehicles, auto analysts believe, because of its low car-ownership rates and large battery manufacturing capacity, as well as its government’s desire to reduce pollution and improve energy efficiency.
China recently launched a pilot programme in five cities comprising hefty Rmb50,000-60,000 subsidies for buyers of electric cars and substantial investment in recharging infrastructure. Beijing plans to have 5m clean energy cars by 2020.
But Li Shengmao, analyst with Shenzhen-based China Investment Consulting Corp, says that while he is optimistic about the electric vehicle market in China, he thinks the market share for such vehicles will not surpass 2 per cent in the next five years. And though Volt may be early to bid on that tiny share of the market - it will be far from the last.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034410/en
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