中
国经济持续放缓：8月份采购经理人指数（PMI）显示中国经济有望软着陆。
8月份PMI为51.7，高于7月份的51.2。中国7月份PMI是在亚洲各地数据令人失望情况下的一抹亮色。台湾数据萎缩，韩国则降至17个月来的最低水平，相反中国数据显示其经济在二次衰退威胁下仍勉力保持了增长。
但中国经济势头也不像以往那样强劲，中国PMI数据通常在每年8月上升，但今年的涨幅不如以往大。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）中国经济学家马骏说，经济增长势头依然远逊于正常水平。
这部分是政府政策有意引导的结果。拯救2008年金融危机的财政刺激政策仍在实施中，同时地产业在政府紧缩政策后正在降温，同时中国政府还在努力达到2006-10年的节能目标，这抑制了一些重工业活动。
这些因素解释了PMI报告中部分分项指数较弱的原因。水泥和汽车业萎缩，前者是因为营建放缓，后者则是因为针对购车者的减税措施效应消退，导致汽车销售减慢。
重要的是，不要把数据的暂时疲弱与中国经济永久放缓混淆。如果一些领域增长率不如以往强劲，这并不意味着将出现长期下行趋势。城市化和希望拥有汽车等强大的力量可能仍是一段时间内支撑中国工业的主题。
这样看来，说中国大量投资时期接近结束（因而对大宗商品的需求已枯竭）的传言似乎很不靠谱。尽管导致2009年经济高速增长的特殊环境可能不会重演，但不应把经济稳定增长与根本不增长混为一谈。
Andrew Peaple
8月份PMI为51.7，高于7月份的51.2。中国7月份PMI是在亚洲各地数据令人失望情况下的一抹亮色。台湾数据萎缩，韩国则降至17个月来的最低水平，相反中国数据显示其经济在二次衰退威胁下仍勉力保持了增长。
但中国经济势头也不像以往那样强劲，中国PMI数据通常在每年8月上升，但今年的涨幅不如以往大。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）中国经济学家马骏说，经济增长势头依然远逊于正常水平。
这部分是政府政策有意引导的结果。拯救2008年金融危机的财政刺激政策仍在实施中，同时地产业在政府紧缩政策后正在降温，同时中国政府还在努力达到2006-10年的节能目标，这抑制了一些重工业活动。
这些因素解释了PMI报告中部分分项指数较弱的原因。水泥和汽车业萎缩，前者是因为营建放缓，后者则是因为针对购车者的减税措施效应消退，导致汽车销售减慢。
重要的是，不要把数据的暂时疲弱与中国经济永久放缓混淆。如果一些领域增长率不如以往强劲，这并不意味着将出现长期下行趋势。城市化和希望拥有汽车等强大的力量可能仍是一段时间内支撑中国工业的主题。
这样看来，说中国大量投资时期接近结束（因而对大宗商品的需求已枯竭）的传言似乎很不靠谱。尽管导致2009年经济高速增长的特殊环境可能不会重演，但不应把经济稳定增长与根本不增长混为一谈。
Andrew Peaple
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20100902/hrd094707.asp
Moderation continues in the middle kingdom: August's reading of the purchasing-managers index suggests a soft landing is on course for China's economy.
At 51.7, up from 51.2 in July, China's July PMI was a bright light amid disappointing figures elsewhere in Asia. Taiwan's reading was contractionary, while South Korea's dropped to its weakest level for 17 months. China's data, by contrast, suggests its economy is managing to hold out against any threat of a double dip.
Still, momentum in China's economy isn't quite as robust as it has been in the past. China's PMI typically goes up in August, but the gain this year wasn't as large as usual. Jun Ma, China economist at Deutsche Bank, says growth momentum remains 'significantly weaker than normal.'
In part, this is the intentional result of government policy. Fiscal stimulus from the advent of the 2008 financial crisis is running its course, while the property sector is cooling off following tightening measures. China's government is also trying hard to meet energy-efficiency goals set for the 2006-10 period, which is constraining some heavy-industry activity.
Such factors explain some of the pockets of weakness in the PMI report. The cement and auto sectors contracted, the former because of slower construction, the latter because of slower sales as the effects of targeted tax cuts fade.
It is important not to confuse such temporary weakness with a permanent slowdown in China. If growth rates in some areas are less spectacular than before, it doesn't mean they are set for a long-term downward spiral. Powerful forces, such as urbanization or the desire for car ownership, are likely to remain constant themes underpinning Chinese industry for some time to come.
Talk, then, that China's period of heavy investment is nearly over-and hence that its thirst for commodities has dried up-seems wide of the mark. The special circumstances that led to high growth rates in 2009 may not be repeated, but steadier growth shouldn't be confused with no growth at all.
Andrew Peaple
At 51.7, up from 51.2 in July, China's July PMI was a bright light amid disappointing figures elsewhere in Asia. Taiwan's reading was contractionary, while South Korea's dropped to its weakest level for 17 months. China's data, by contrast, suggests its economy is managing to hold out against any threat of a double dip.
Still, momentum in China's economy isn't quite as robust as it has been in the past. China's PMI typically goes up in August, but the gain this year wasn't as large as usual. Jun Ma, China economist at Deutsche Bank, says growth momentum remains 'significantly weaker than normal.'
In part, this is the intentional result of government policy. Fiscal stimulus from the advent of the 2008 financial crisis is running its course, while the property sector is cooling off following tightening measures. China's government is also trying hard to meet energy-efficiency goals set for the 2006-10 period, which is constraining some heavy-industry activity.
Such factors explain some of the pockets of weakness in the PMI report. The cement and auto sectors contracted, the former because of slower construction, the latter because of slower sales as the effects of targeted tax cuts fade.
It is important not to confuse such temporary weakness with a permanent slowdown in China. If growth rates in some areas are less spectacular than before, it doesn't mean they are set for a long-term downward spiral. Powerful forces, such as urbanization or the desire for car ownership, are likely to remain constant themes underpinning Chinese industry for some time to come.
Talk, then, that China's period of heavy investment is nearly over-and hence that its thirst for commodities has dried up-seems wide of the mark. The special circumstances that led to high growth rates in 2009 may not be repeated, but steadier growth shouldn't be confused with no growth at all.
Andrew Peaple
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