全球两个最大经济体8月份制造业活动的意外复苏，令投资者大受鼓舞。它结束了美国经济数据持续整个夏季的黯淡期。
全球股市昨日大幅飙升，原因是投资者认为，全球制造业产出调查表明全球经济仍在迅速复苏、二次探底的可能性有所下降。
伦敦股市收盘时，富时环球指数(FTSE All-World Index)收复了其8月份的大部分失地（8月份该指数下跌3.5%），当日收涨2.7%。欧美股市也出现了2%以上的涨幅。
分析师认为股市的这种活跃表现，与超出预期的制造业公司采购经理人(PMI)调查数据有关。
摩根大通(JPMorgan)环球经济协调总监大卫•汉斯利(David Hensley)表示，采购经理人数据表明，第三季度的任何放缓“幅度都不会太大”。
他补充称：“尽管随着时间的推移，（经济）环境将继续降温，但似乎剩余的牵引力已足够维持复苏。”
经济学家此前预期，美国8月份制造业活动将进一步放缓，但供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management)备受关注的数据表明，尽管个别地区调查显示形势有所恶化，但美国总体产出呈加速增长态势。
美国采购经理人指数从7月份的55.5升至8月份的56.3。对此，供应管理学会制造业业务调查委员会主席诺伯特•奥尔(Norbert Ore)表示：“生产与就业指数出现了最大的涨幅，新订单持续增长，但增长速度略有放缓。”
与美国惊喜相对应的是，当今全球第二大经济体中国的采购经理人指数也出现了意外反弹。当有人担心政府的紧缩举措可能导致中国经济下半年大幅放缓之际，汇丰银行(HSBC)编制的PMI指数，从7月份的49.4，升至8月份的51.9，创下了3个月新高，而官方编制的PMI指数也从51.2升至51.7。
印度的PMI仍保持强劲，但亚洲其它地区出现了下滑。
欧元区制造业PMI经修正后略有上升，从而验证了强劲的增长态势。但增长速度正在放缓。
一个重大问题是，在发达经济体纷纷控制自身预算赤字之际，经济增长势头在明年能够持续。
美国就业数据将于明日发布，预计8月份非农私人部门就业岗位增加了4.1万个。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034423
A surprise bounce in manufacturing activity in the world’s two biggest economies in August cheered investors as it ended the bleak run of US economic data over the summer.
Global stock markets surged as investors took global surveys of manufacturing output to show that the world economy was still recovering rapidly and the chances of a double-dip recession had receded.
At the London close, the FTSE All-World index had reversed most of its 3.5 per cent fall in August and was up 2.7 per cent on the day. There were gains of more than 2 per cent in European and US stock markets.
The exuberance was linked by analysts to better than expected surveys of purchasing managers of manufacturing companies.
David Hensley, director of global economics co-ordination at JPMorgan, said the figures showed that any slowdown in the third quarter “will not be too excessive”.
He added: “While conditions will continue to cool as the year progresses, there looks to be sufficient traction remaining to sustain the recovery.”
Economists had expected US manufacturing to slow further in August, but the closely watched figures from the Institute of Supply Management pointed to an acceleration of output growth even as separate regional surveys painted a more downbeat picture.
Commenting on a rise in the US purchasing managers’ index from 55.5 in July to 56.3, Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee, said: “The production and employment indexes experienced the greatest gains, while new orders continued to grow but at a slightly slower rate.”
The US surprise was matched by an unexpected bounce in the equivalent PMI indices in China, now the world’s second-biggest economy. Amid fears that the Chinese economy could slow down sharply in the second half of the year because of government tightening measures, the PMI index compiled by HSBC rose to a three-month high of 51.9 in August, from 49.4 in July, while the official index also rose, to 51.7 from 51.2.
India’s PMI remained strong while there were declines elsewhere in Asia.
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs were revised slightly higher confirming robust growth. But the pace of expansion was slowing.
The big question is whether the economic momentum will be sustained next year when advanced economies rein in their budget deficits.
US jobs data are published tomorrow and are expected to show a 41,000 rise in non-farm private sector jobs in August.
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