股市第一定律：长期看股市呈螺旋上升。
2011年7月29日
乔治・索罗斯的“易错性”
自从读了贾森・茨威格的《当大脑遇见金钱》之后，就对当行为金融学逐渐痴迷了，于是就知道原来许多投资者都在使用心理和情绪技巧来收益。
市场天才基金的负责人杰克・施瓦格曾经写了一本书《股市奇才》，其中记述了一位名叫史蒂文・科恩的亿万富豪。科恩是SAC资本公司的CEO，有意思的是，他聘任了一名资深的精神病学家作为他公司"一个永远的固定成员"。这就表明，心理上的控制会对金融风险冒险者产生重大的作用。施瓦格发现科恩即使在交易的时候，也保持一份幽默感。科恩的幽默感和放松展示了他没有将自己的交易收益和亏损"放在心上"――已经完全不会受到情绪的影响。因此施瓦格"对他的随意性产生深刻印象"，并称赞他"是世界上最伟大交易员之一"。
乔治・索罗斯先生认为他的优势在于"有认错的勇气"。当他一觉得犯错，就马上改正。当索罗斯无限推崇"易错性"的时候，实际上也使用心理和情绪技巧来收益。与巴菲特一样，索罗斯也是最不受他所谓的"犯错的必然性"影响的人。"对于其他人，犯错是羞耻之源。对我而言，认识到我的错误是我感到自豪的事。一旦我们意识到不完美的理解是人之常情，那么就不会因犯错而感到羞耻，而只是因未能及时纠正错误而感到羞耻。"
索罗斯就是这样，可以相当快的速度修正自己的意见，即使别人提醒他先前的立场如何，他一点也不会觉得难堪。有个叫吉恩・罗赞的交易员曾经与索罗斯就股市行情争论了整整一个下午，索罗斯明确表示非常看坏后市，并且还用一套深思熟虑的理论来解释原因。仅仅几天后，市场猛涨，屡创新高。事实证明索罗斯是错误的。罗赞担心索罗斯建立的头寸可能赔钱，于是问他是否有所损失。不料索罗斯却说，"我们大赚了一票。我改变了主意，不但回补了空头头寸，还建立起很大的多头头寸。"
犯错对大多数人都是一件难堪的事，可以引发焦虑的情绪而坐立不安。不过即便如此，大多数人在接受错误方面似乎依然很难，即使是长期资本管理公司（LTCM)的那些人，从来也没有说清楚他们究竟错在哪里。而索罗斯与其他投资者的区别就在于，虽然犯错不是什么光彩的事情，但毕竟是游戏的一部分。因此他在投资一开始常常假设自己建立的投资仓位可能有错，而不是像其他人一样，假设自己是正确的。实际上只有认识到自己可能犯错，并提高警觉，就能比大多数人更为及时地发现和矫正错误。索罗斯说，我真正的快乐来自于发现了一个错误。索罗斯的心理柔韧性以及个人的勇气是他获得成功的催化剂。因此他可以自豪地宣称他的成功，"不是来自于猜测正确，而是来自于承认错误"。这就是我虽然不怎么喜欢他，但却不得不赞赏的地方。
精神科医生、行为金融学家理查德・彼得森认为，对于投资者，至关重要的是培养客观的看法，要能与自我意识分离开来，以此保持灵活的预期值。特别是，不应过分关注决策的后果，而应当着眼于一个决策制定的过程。过分反思或考虑过去的事件，反而会弄巧成拙。每一天都重新调整自己，可以使每一个股票看起来都像刚刚开放的花朵那样新鲜。
2011年7月28日
中国人更爱保时捷SUV Why Porsche's SUVs Outsell Its Sports Cars in China
Bloomberg News
保时捷并不华丽的四门轿车和SUV在中国比跑车更受欢迎。
保
时捷(Porsche)在中国卖得最好的是哪一款？提示：是四门车，不是两门。
跟多数豪车生产商一样，保时捷在中国成长迅速，不过它在中国最受欢迎的车型不是跑得飞快的911跑车，而是四门轿车"Panamera"和卡宴(Cayenne)SUV。
香港捷成集团(Jebsen Group)旗下汽车经销公司捷成汽车(Jebsen Motors)是保时捷在中国最大的经销商。该公司本周说，为赶上需求的急剧增长，它将在中国扩张，在上海开设第二家经销店。除了上海以外，捷成也在北京、杭州、广州、深圳、香港和澳门销售保时捷。
捷成集团负责捷成汽车的董事毕少朴(Mark Bishop)最近接受《华尔街日报》采访，讨论了中国的豪车市场，以及这个国家为什么更喜欢轿车而非跑车。以下为经过编辑的访谈内容。
《华尔街日报》：目前豪华汽车在中国市场卖得怎么样？销量是否仍像去年那样强劲？
毕少朴：仍然非常强劲。豪华汽车销量仍在显著增长。保时捷在中国的增长非常快，2004年全国销量在350辆到400辆，2010年已达1.5万辆左右。中国已经成为保时捷在全世界的第二大市场。
去年，保时捷在中国的总销量当中，接近三分之一是我们捷成销售的。2010年，我们在上海的保时捷中心成为中国第一家全年销量超过1,000辆的汽车经销店。但在经销商越来越多、竞争越来越激烈的情况下，我们的增长机会或许不如以前。
《华尔街日报》：你们的竞争对手是谁？其他品牌还是其他经销商？
毕少朴：随着经销商网络越来越大，竞争也越来越激烈。你所经营的地盘就变得更加局促一些。但也有其他品牌参与竞争的因素，特别是其他德系产品：宝马(BMW)，梅赛德斯(Mercedes)，奥迪(Audi)。
《华尔街日报》：在中国卖得最好的是哪款？
毕少普：中国是卡宴和Panamera的最大市场。考虑到Panamera才上市18个月，这是一个了不起的成就。但它也反映了哪一类车在这个市场受到欢迎。两款车占了整个业务的80%。
跑车同样也有明显增长。但我认为中国一直是一个大车市场。人们喜欢SUV。而且一直存在一种让专职司机开车的文化，我认为这种文化至今存在。但也有越来越多的人是自己开车。甚至那些让司机开车的人，现在也是在周末的时候跟家人一起出去，由一家之主开车。
《华尔街日报》：你是否担心中国经济放缓？
毕少朴：有两个潜在风险。一是经济放缓，二是社会问题，或者说是政府在购车方面会有什么措施，在管理城市汽车方面会有什么措施。决策可能会很快做出，而我们得依据政府决策行事。
Jason Chow
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
What's the best-selling Porsche model in China?
Hint: It has four doors, not two.
Like most luxury carmakers, Porsche has grown fast in China, though its most popular car in the country isn't its speedy 911 sports car but its four-door Panamera sedan and Cayenne SUV.
Jebsen Motors, the auto division of the Hong Kong-based conglomerate Jebsen Group, is Porsche's largest distributor in China. It said this week that it will be expanding in the country, opening its second dealership in Shanghai to keep up with surging demand. In addition to Shanghai, Jebsen sells Porsches in Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.
Mark Bishop, the group director for Jebsen Motors, recently talked with The Wall Street Journal about the luxury market in China and why the country prefers sedans over sports cars. The following interview has been edited.
The Wall Street Journal: How are luxury cars doing in China at the moment? Are sales as strong as they were last year?
Mr. Bishop: It's still very buoyant. The luxury end of the business still enjoys significant volume growth. We've seen meteoric growth here at Porsche, from around 350 to 400 cars in 2004 for all of China, to around 15,000 in 2010. China has become the No. 2 market for Porsche world-wide.
At Jebsen last year, we sold approximately one-third of the total volume for Porsche in China. In 2010, our Porsche Centre in Shanghai became the first dealership in China to sell over 1,000 units in a single year. But with more dealers and competition, our opportunities for growth might not be as great.
WSJ: Who are your competitors: other brands or other dealers?
Mr. Bishop: As the dealer network grows, it adds competition. The territories that you operate become a bit more confined. But there's also the element of other competitive brands, particularly the other German stables: BMW, Mercedes, Audi.
WSJ: What sells well in China?
Mr. Bishop: China is the biggest single market for the Cayenne and the Panamera. Considering the Panamera has only been on the market for 18 months, it's a significant achievement. But it's also an indication of the kind of cars that are popular here. Those two models are 80% of the business.
We're still seeing a significant increase in the sports car too. But I think China has always been a big-car market. There's a love for SUVs. There's always been a chauffeur culture too, and I think that still exists today. But we're seeing more and more people driving themselves. Even those who use it with a driver, we're now seeing them on the weekends with the family out and the father driving.
WSJ: Are you worried about a slowdown in China?
Mr. Bishop: There are two potential risks. No. 1, economic slowdown. No. 2, social issues, or in what the government does in regards to buying cars and what it does about regulating them in the cities. Decisions can be made fast, and we have to work within it.
Jason Chow
Hint: It has four doors, not two.
Like most luxury carmakers, Porsche has grown fast in China, though its most popular car in the country isn't its speedy 911 sports car but its four-door Panamera sedan and Cayenne SUV.
Jebsen Motors, the auto division of the Hong Kong-based conglomerate Jebsen Group, is Porsche's largest distributor in China. It said this week that it will be expanding in the country, opening its second dealership in Shanghai to keep up with surging demand. In addition to Shanghai, Jebsen sells Porsches in Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as Hong Kong and Macau.
Mark Bishop, the group director for Jebsen Motors, recently talked with The Wall Street Journal about the luxury market in China and why the country prefers sedans over sports cars. The following interview has been edited.
The Wall Street Journal: How are luxury cars doing in China at the moment? Are sales as strong as they were last year?
Mr. Bishop: It's still very buoyant. The luxury end of the business still enjoys significant volume growth. We've seen meteoric growth here at Porsche, from around 350 to 400 cars in 2004 for all of China, to around 15,000 in 2010. China has become the No. 2 market for Porsche world-wide.
At Jebsen last year, we sold approximately one-third of the total volume for Porsche in China. In 2010, our Porsche Centre in Shanghai became the first dealership in China to sell over 1,000 units in a single year. But with more dealers and competition, our opportunities for growth might not be as great.
WSJ: Who are your competitors: other brands or other dealers?
Mr. Bishop: As the dealer network grows, it adds competition. The territories that you operate become a bit more confined. But there's also the element of other competitive brands, particularly the other German stables: BMW, Mercedes, Audi.
WSJ: What sells well in China?
Mr. Bishop: China is the biggest single market for the Cayenne and the Panamera. Considering the Panamera has only been on the market for 18 months, it's a significant achievement. But it's also an indication of the kind of cars that are popular here. Those two models are 80% of the business.
We're still seeing a significant increase in the sports car too. But I think China has always been a big-car market. There's a love for SUVs. There's always been a chauffeur culture too, and I think that still exists today. But we're seeing more and more people driving themselves. Even those who use it with a driver, we're now seeing them on the weekends with the family out and the father driving.
WSJ: Are you worried about a slowdown in China?
Mr. Bishop: There are two potential risks. No. 1, economic slowdown. No. 2, social issues, or in what the government does in regards to buying cars and what it does about regulating them in the cities. Decisions can be made fast, and we have to work within it.
Jason Chow
“美元陷阱”令中国无法抛售美国债
外
国央行是美国国债的主要债权人，所以当美国债务上限问题并未使这些央行大规模抛售撤资的时候，美国政府应该长舒了一口气。 但这些重要投资者继续购买并持有美国国债的原因可能和它们对美国政府整顿财政状况能力的信任没有太大关系，而是由所谓的"美元陷阱"这一无法摆脱的困境所致。
"美元陷阱"是指：如果中国和日本等国央行（其外汇储备总计4万亿美元以上）想要抛售部分巨额美国国债头寸，甚至只是表现出有这种意愿的迹象，这些国家的本币兑美元就会受此影响下跌；而这将迫使他们进入汇市干预，买入美元来保护出口商利益。因此，该陷阱也使得这些央行不得不继续将美元投资到美国国债中。美国国债市场也是全球唯一一个可以接受如此大规模资金且流动性充足的债券市场。
泰国和韩国等部分亚洲央行本周早些时候入市干预，买入美元并抛售本币。日本财务大臣野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)周四也作出或将干预汇市的暗示，他对受到日圆走强影响的出口商表示同情。
美国国债市场共有9.3万亿美元未清偿国债，规模仅次于全球最大的日本国债市场，后者规模为9.7万亿美元。但日本国债约90%由国内投资者持有，与之不同的是，美国国债约一半由外国投资者持有。由于亚洲央行需要规模庞大、流动性高的市场以保证其巨额投资组合进行调整之际不会对物价造成负面影响，因此亚洲央行仍将美元选作储备货币。
截至目前，美国国债市场仍表现良好。基准10年期美国国债收益率周四报2.947%，远低于2月份的年中最高水平3.77%。本周2年期、5年期、7年期国债拍卖的外国需求仅略低于近期平均水平。
瑞士银行(UBS AG)驻新加坡首席外汇策略师Mansoor Mohi-uddin称，美国国债市场是全球唯一一个可以容纳全球约10万亿美元外汇储备池的债券市场。他表示，德国债券和英国国债市场规模分别为1万亿美元左右，而相比之下，黄金市场规模更小。
但可以肯定的是，美国两党的政治角力正促使外国央行继续将投资从美元计价产品向别处转移。目前，美元计价储备资产占全球外汇储备总额已经从10年前的70%降至60%左右。但这仍是欧元计价资产占全球外汇储备总额比例的两倍以上。预计任何进一步的外汇多样化投资都将循序渐进。
到目前为止，持有大量美国国债的国家官员还未对美国债务谈判僵局发表过激言论。中国新华社周四发表两篇文章，批评美国领导人在提高债务上限问题上的角力将全球经济置于危险境地。但文章同时将美国国债描述成最安全、最稳定、风险最小的债券，而美国国债市场是唯一一个可以容纳中国快速增长的外汇储备的市场。
荷兰商业银行(ING BANK, 又名：安银银行)首席亚洲经济学家Tim Condon表示，即使美元仍在贬值，但各国央行将继续增加美元储备资产，因为这是央行的唯一选择；这是央行为放慢本币升值速度、保护出口商的折中方法。
Min Zeng
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
温家宝强调高铁建设安全第一 China's Wen Signals Caution in Wake of Rail Crash
在
中国政府力图抑制动车严重追尾事故引起的愤怒之时，中国国务院总理温家宝周四前往事故现场视察，向中国庞大的高速铁路系统发出了新的警示。
Reuters/China Daily
中国总理温家宝周四在温州动车追尾事故发生地点献花。
事故加剧了人们对温家宝政府的批评，指责在高速铁路系统等引人瞩目的基础设施项目上一味地追求经济增长，而这些工程的建设几乎未征求公众意见、也缺乏透明度。
中国共产党官方喉舌报纸《人民日报》周三在头版评论文章中说，中国想要发展，但不要带血的GDP。报纸说，发展是硬道理，但发展并非不计代价，更不能被少数人曲解为一切为发展让路。
温家宝身穿白色短袖衬衫，在十几名随行官员的陪同下来到现场。他在悼念遇难者的鲜花前深深鞠躬，悲痛之情溢于言表。温家宝保证，政府的调查会给出一个经得起历史考验的结果。目前为止，政府调查由于缺乏透明性而遭到普遍指责。他特别提到自己病了11天，医生直到周四才勉强允许他出行，这显然是解释自己为何来迟。
温家宝在现场对记者说，高速铁路系统需要与其他交通设施建设进行权衡，这种论调与政府在事故发生前几个月一味宣传铁路系统形成鲜明对比。高速铁路系统是中国造价最高、建设最快的基础设施项目之一。
他说，高速铁路建设要实现速度、质量、效益和安全的统一，把安全放在第一位；失掉了安全，就失掉了高铁的可信度。
愤怒的公众已经要求政府就现代化铁路系统为何会出故障、谁该为此负责以及有关部门起初是否试图掩埋部分列车残骸做出回答。政府已经对第三个问题表示强烈否认。
相关报导
但就在他们做出这些呼吁同时，政府近几年却将大笔资金投入到大型公共工程建设中。
中国高速铁路系统是中国政府典型做法的缩影：整体规模堪称全球第一的高速铁路网预计将花费至少3,000亿美元。
但实际上，高铁项目引起了普遍的怨言，如票价太高、铁道部被指腐败、前铁道部长于今年2月落马以及接二连三的技术故障等。
周四，中国政府给出了上周六动车追尾事故真正原因的首个线索，说温州附近的铁路信号系统在遭雷击后，未能从绿灯变成红灯，这才造成一辆列车撞上了另一辆在雷雨天气下已失去动力的列车。中国政府没有详细说明。
虽然温家宝回避了有关该事故是否由人为失误造成的问题，但总部位于北京的一个铁路信号公司已为设备故障道歉。
STR/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
图片：动车追尾后的48小时
对于上周六撞车事故的原因和事故处理方式，中国政府仍需要做出很多回答。专家表示怀疑的是，雷击能否导致一个先进的铁路系统出现如此重大的故障，以至于造成像上周六那样的灾难。周四有关信号设备失灵的说法依然没有讲清楚，究竟哪段铁路的信号系统失灵。铁路信号系统是由多个子系统构成的一个复杂装置。
在中国提供这类安全系统的供应商北京和利时公司(Hollysys Automation Technologies Ltd.)说，上周六两列动车在温州相撞时，该公司为其安装的信号设备运行正常。这种信号设备被称作列车自动控制防护系统(ATP)。
和利时在自己网站上发布了一个注明是7月25日的新闻稿。新闻稿说，据来自多个信息源的数据分析显示，两列列车的ATP系统运作正常，无任何导致崩溃的故障发生。和利时在美国纳斯达克(Nasdaq)上市。
ATP系统安装在列车头部和尾部，从基于地面沿铁路轨道设置的列车控制中心系统获得信号，以维持安全运行。
和利时北京办公室的一位高管说，ATP只是安装在动车上的大型信号与安全设备中的一个系统，还说公司调查后发现，他们为那两辆出事列车安装的系统并无问题。
她说，目前没有看到有关其它相关系统运行情况的消息。
Jason Dean / Norihiko Shirouzu / James T. Areddy
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao signaled new caution on the country's huge high-speed rail network on a visit to the site of a deadly bullet train crash as his government struggled to contain anger over the disaster.
The trip by Mr. Wen, who said he had been too ill to travel until Thursday, was the strongest sign yet of Beijing's concern over the furor about the collision of two high-speed trains five days earlier, which killed 39 people and injured an additional 192 near the eastern city of Wenzhou.
The accident has amplified criticism that Mr. Wen's government is recklessly pursuing economic growth with high-profile infrastructure projects like the bullet-train network that are rolled out with little public input or transparency.
'China wants development, but it doesn't want blood-smeared GDP' said a front-page commentary Wednesday in the People's Daily, the Communist Party's official mouthpiece. 'Although development is the overarching goal of China, it should not come at a reckless price, nor be practiced by a handful of people as if it overrides everything,' said the paper.
Mr. Wen, in white shirt sleeves and accompanied by an entourage of dozens of officials, appeared visibly moved as he bowed deeply in front of a bed of fresh-cut flowers commemorating the accident's victims, and vowed that the government's investigation─which so far has been widely criticized for lacking transparency─will offer a result that can 'stand the test of history.' In an apparent effort to address the delay in his visit, he pointedly noted that he had been ill for 11 days, and that his doctors only reluctantly approved his travel Thursday.
Mr. Wen told reporters on the scene that the high-speed rail system─one of China's most expensive and rapidly constructed infrastructure projects─needs to be balanced against other transportation projects, a tone that contrasted with the government's relentless trumpeting of the rail network in the months before the accident.
'The high-speed railway development should integrate speed, quality, efficiency and safety. And safety should be put in the first place,' he said. 'Without safety, high-speed trains will lose their credibility.'
An angry public has demanded answers about how the modern rail system failed, who was to blame and whether authorities initially tried to conceal parts of the wreckage─something officials have strongly denied.
Mr. Wen and other Chinese leaders have talked for years about the need to emphasize the quality of growth rather simply speed. They have stressed the importance of narrowing a widening wealth gap, and curbing widespread environmental degradation.
Yet even as they have made those calls, the government has poured money in recent years into massive public-works projects.
The high-speed rail system has epitomized the government's approach: a world-beating network expected to cost at least $300 billion.
But the project has been plagued by widespread complaints that tickets are too costly, by allegations of corruption at the Railways Ministry and the firing of its top official in February, and by repeated technological glitches.
On Thursday, the government offered its first hint of what exactly caused Saturday's disaster, saying a railway signal system around Wenzhou failed to turn to red from green after being hit by lightning, which then caused one train to ram into another that itself had lost power in the lightning storm. The government didn't elaborate.
While Mr. Wen skirted questions about whether the accident was the result of human error, a Beijing-based rail signaling company apologized for its failures.
Now many see the accident as a wake-up call. 'High-speed rail is the best symbol and metaphor for China's social and economic development,' wrote Rui Chenggang, a prominent anchor from China Central Television, the state broadcaster, after the accident. 'If high speed doesn't slow, there will be unceasing problems and frequent accidents.'
The government still has numerous questions to answer about the cause of Saturday's accident and its handling. Experts have expressed incredulity that lightning could so severely disable an advanced rail system as to cause a disaster like Saturday's. And Thursday's claim that signaling equipment failed left unclear what part of the line's signalizing system─a comprehensive apparatus made up of multiple sub-systems─failed.
Hollysys Automation Technologies Ltd., a company that supplies such safety systems in China, said its signaling devices installed in the two trains involved in Saturday's accident─called automatic train protection, or ATP─'functioned normally' during the crash in Wenzhou.
'According to the analysis of data from multiple sources, the ATPs on the two trains provided by Hollysys functioned normally and well, and free of any malfunctions prior to the crash,' the Nasdaq-listed company said in a press release dated July 25 posted on its website.
ATP systems are installed at the front and rear of trains and receive signals from ground-based 'train control centers' along railways for safe operation.
An official in Hollysys' office in Beijing said ATP is just one system in the big signaling and safety equipment apparatus for high-speed trains, and the company's investigation found no issues with its systems installed on the trains.
It has no information on how other related systems performed, she said.
Jason Dean / Norihiko Shirouzu / James T. Areddy
本文涉及股票或公司
The trip by Mr. Wen, who said he had been too ill to travel until Thursday, was the strongest sign yet of Beijing's concern over the furor about the collision of two high-speed trains five days earlier, which killed 39 people and injured an additional 192 near the eastern city of Wenzhou.
The accident has amplified criticism that Mr. Wen's government is recklessly pursuing economic growth with high-profile infrastructure projects like the bullet-train network that are rolled out with little public input or transparency.
'China wants development, but it doesn't want blood-smeared GDP' said a front-page commentary Wednesday in the People's Daily, the Communist Party's official mouthpiece. 'Although development is the overarching goal of China, it should not come at a reckless price, nor be practiced by a handful of people as if it overrides everything,' said the paper.
Mr. Wen, in white shirt sleeves and accompanied by an entourage of dozens of officials, appeared visibly moved as he bowed deeply in front of a bed of fresh-cut flowers commemorating the accident's victims, and vowed that the government's investigation─which so far has been widely criticized for lacking transparency─will offer a result that can 'stand the test of history.' In an apparent effort to address the delay in his visit, he pointedly noted that he had been ill for 11 days, and that his doctors only reluctantly approved his travel Thursday.
Mr. Wen told reporters on the scene that the high-speed rail system─one of China's most expensive and rapidly constructed infrastructure projects─needs to be balanced against other transportation projects, a tone that contrasted with the government's relentless trumpeting of the rail network in the months before the accident.
'The high-speed railway development should integrate speed, quality, efficiency and safety. And safety should be put in the first place,' he said. 'Without safety, high-speed trains will lose their credibility.'
An angry public has demanded answers about how the modern rail system failed, who was to blame and whether authorities initially tried to conceal parts of the wreckage─something officials have strongly denied.
Mr. Wen and other Chinese leaders have talked for years about the need to emphasize the quality of growth rather simply speed. They have stressed the importance of narrowing a widening wealth gap, and curbing widespread environmental degradation.
Yet even as they have made those calls, the government has poured money in recent years into massive public-works projects.
The high-speed rail system has epitomized the government's approach: a world-beating network expected to cost at least $300 billion.
But the project has been plagued by widespread complaints that tickets are too costly, by allegations of corruption at the Railways Ministry and the firing of its top official in February, and by repeated technological glitches.
On Thursday, the government offered its first hint of what exactly caused Saturday's disaster, saying a railway signal system around Wenzhou failed to turn to red from green after being hit by lightning, which then caused one train to ram into another that itself had lost power in the lightning storm. The government didn't elaborate.
While Mr. Wen skirted questions about whether the accident was the result of human error, a Beijing-based rail signaling company apologized for its failures.
Now many see the accident as a wake-up call. 'High-speed rail is the best symbol and metaphor for China's social and economic development,' wrote Rui Chenggang, a prominent anchor from China Central Television, the state broadcaster, after the accident. 'If high speed doesn't slow, there will be unceasing problems and frequent accidents.'
The government still has numerous questions to answer about the cause of Saturday's accident and its handling. Experts have expressed incredulity that lightning could so severely disable an advanced rail system as to cause a disaster like Saturday's. And Thursday's claim that signaling equipment failed left unclear what part of the line's signalizing system─a comprehensive apparatus made up of multiple sub-systems─failed.
Hollysys Automation Technologies Ltd., a company that supplies such safety systems in China, said its signaling devices installed in the two trains involved in Saturday's accident─called automatic train protection, or ATP─'functioned normally' during the crash in Wenzhou.
'According to the analysis of data from multiple sources, the ATPs on the two trains provided by Hollysys functioned normally and well, and free of any malfunctions prior to the crash,' the Nasdaq-listed company said in a press release dated July 25 posted on its website.
ATP systems are installed at the front and rear of trains and receive signals from ground-based 'train control centers' along railways for safe operation.
An official in Hollysys' office in Beijing said ATP is just one system in the big signaling and safety equipment apparatus for high-speed trains, and the company's investigation found no issues with its systems installed on the trains.
It has no information on how other related systems performed, she said.
Jason Dean / Norihiko Shirouzu / James T. Areddy
本文涉及股票或公司
【原创】书摘随笔：中庸达于至境
【原创】书摘随笔：中庸达于至境
俱乐部会员：等待
我加入了求索兄的“书友会”微博后，本打算每周一书，然后写几句心得，但现在来看远远没有达到“工作量”，这几天正好在俱乐部博客值班，写点书摘算是呼应了。
最近好像看的财经杂志多于书籍，手中还未读完的一本是《机构投资与基金管理的创新》，书名好像挺平淡，但作者大卫史文森却非同寻常，他是耶鲁基金首席投资主管，管理着上百亿美元的投资基金。在史文森的领导下，耶鲁基金以出色的表现历经美国1987年的“黑色星期一”、20世纪80年代末的经济“滞涨”、90年代的“克林顿繁荣”、高科技浪潮、2000年前后的互联网高潮及“泡沫”，直到最近的全球经济疲软。
今天读到第七章，本章文中涉及到了对于基金风格的一些阐述，有些感触，特摘抄于此：（书摘起始）
极端的成长型和极端的价值型策略都很幼稚，使运用者暴露于极大的危险之中。两种方法对过去都很关注，却忽视了对决定证券价格十分关键的前瞻性信息。
价值型投资者关注市场价格与资产的历史成本（账面值）之间的关系，或者是市场价格与历史盈利状况之间的关系。虽然深度价值型的投资者在合理的时间框架内常常表现良好，但对报告的业绩表现进行风险调整却成了一个大问题。深度价值型组合含有低质量的、基本面方面风险较大的资产。所以收益应该高一点以补偿组合所含的较高风险。在严重经济低迷的情况下，价值型组合所含的较高风险水平引发了灾难性的投资结果。就像60年一遇的洪水所造成的损失一样，严重的金融灾难引起了广泛的损失，对于弱的、低质量的、深度价值型的证券的打击则非常严厉。市场失败的数据飞涨，许多股票被迫出局，连复兴的可能都被消除了。向均值回归的魔力不再，价值性的投资者遭受了永远性的损失。
极端的成长型策略也含有类似的错误。预测历史上的成长率会在未来继续保持忽略了强有力的向均值回归趋势。相信能在下跌以前安全撤退就像相信圣诞老人一样。成长型投资者冒着生命危险抢跑，所以极易失败。
合理的证券选择技术基于前瞻性的方法，试图去发现什么会在将来发生。公司股票的购买者获取从未来公司利润中获益的权力。运用市盈率的历史数据来选择股票的价值型投资者没能将对定价过程很关键的预期信息包括在内。基于过去的价格形态及盈利状况来做出投资决策的动力型投资者就像只看后视镜驾车一样。
在极端的价值型和极端的成长型策略之间有一种关注于公平价值的合理投资策略。以低于公平价格的价位购买高速成长的未来盈利流既满足了价值型的衡量准则，又满足了成长型的准则。或者，成功可能来自于以低于公平价格的价位购买一组低质量的盈利流，但这组盈利流已经通过折价来反映未来现金流的基本面风险。在两种情况下，公平价值在证券选择决策中起了关键作用。（书摘结束）
我读到此有感触，是因为我的投资历程也经历了几个阶段才找到了目前我认为正确的适合我的方向。
第一个阶段是技术分析阶段，由于领我入市的一个朋友是老券商背景的操盘手，受他影响，所以自然而然的，我就开始热衷于研究实践技术分析，每天以成功完成了几个“T+0”为荣，但后来有两方面的原因使我开始怀疑技术分析，一个是实践技术分析的过程中往往“赚一点，赚一点，赚一点，亏了一大块”，一开始是认为自己水平不过硬，所以更加广泛的阅读技术分析的各门派书籍，但后来我发现国外的技术分析大师们他们自己最终也没通过技术分析赚到什么钱，因此，我就开始寻找新的投资策略。
第二个阶段就是史文森所说的“极端的价值型策略”，在寻找中我读了格雷厄姆的书，也读了国内写的解读巴菲特的书（这里提一句，启蒙阶段一定要读原著，以防误导），开始走上了学习价值投资的道路，这个阶段虽然也读了大量的国外价值投资大家的名著，但投资实践热衷的仍是巴老所说的“烟蒂投资法”，纠缠于重置资本和清算价值，有时也会落进“价值陷阱”，困扰于“价值实现”的漫漫征途。
第三个阶段是史文森文中所说的“合理的投资策略”，也就是纯粹的巴式风格，这个阶段开始的起点是加入中道巴菲特俱乐部的那一刻，知道中道巴菲特俱乐部纯属偶然，最早是在网上读到阿理兄的文章，很受震撼，然后通过阿理兄的博客找到了中道巴菲特俱乐部的博客，申请加入大约花了一个多月的时间，经过多次交流最终才通过审核。加入俱乐部以后，在与阿理兄、求索兄以及其他会员的交流中，逐步修正和完善了自己的投资思想框架，这就是我的第三个阶段。
随笔到此告一段落，还没起好题目，想想比较适合的还是借用阿理兄常常提起的那句话吧：“中庸达于至境”，这也许也是大卫史文森倡导的那种基金风格吧。（博客编辑：初学）
中道巴菲特俱乐部郑重声明：专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点。刊载此文不代表同意其说法，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。如果您发现本专栏有侵犯您的知识产权的文章，请联系我们 ，我们会删除该文章。转载本专栏文章、图片，请注明出处。
高龄CEO盘点：95岁CEO掌舵公司60年
巴菲特说：超级明星经理人实在是可遇不可求的稀世珍宝，我们怎么能够仅仅因为生日蛋糕插满太多的蜡烛就将其抛 弃。另外，我们的经验表明，新出校门的MBA工商管理硕士和这些老年明星经理人相比简直差远了。他们的学术研究成绩看起来好得惊人，做为经理候选人求职时 说起话来头头是道，但是他们往往缺乏老经理人那种个人对公司的全身心投入，也缺乏老经理人那些基本的商业智慧和实际经验知识。
高龄CEO盘点：95岁CEO掌舵公司60年
2011-07-27 17:30:14 来源: 福布斯中文网(上海) 有0人参与 手机看新闻 转发到微博(0)
很多公司都由高龄CEO来掌舵，其中有利有弊。在市值至少达到5亿美元的上市公司中，年 龄不低于75岁的CEO共有24人。其中有默多克、巴菲特等大家非常熟悉的人。而年届95岁的沃尔特・扎博尔是所有市值不低于5亿美元的上市公司中年纪最 大的CEO，他1951年就创办了自己的公司。
如果你关心新闻集团窃 听丑闻的进展，不可能不会想到年龄问题。上周在英国议会召开的听证会上，新闻集团80岁的董事会主席兼首席执行官（CEO）鲁珀特・默多克 （Rupert Murdoch）多次难以说出某个名字、叙述事件的经过，甚至不能听清被问到的问题。在某些时刻，他轻轻点着头，样子好像在打瞌睡。脱口 秀节目《每日秀》（The Daily Show）随后对此更是大做文章。形成鲜明对比的是坐在老默多克旁边38岁的詹姆斯・默多克，这位老默多克财产今 后的法定继承人对答如流，并且很容易就可以举出大量的数据。
对于CEO的职位来说，默多克的年龄不是非同一般的大。准确的说，根据《福布 斯》采集的数据，在市值至少达到5亿美元的上市公司中，他的年纪是所有CEO里第7大的。在年纪比默多克大的6名CEO（都是男性）中，他们管理公司的市 值均不超过110亿美元；新闻集团的市值现在大约为400亿美元。（请参见文末附表。）尽管一些媒体行业大亨的年纪大于默多克 传媒公司维亚康姆（Viacom）的萨姆纳 雷石东（Sumner Redstone）年届88岁、先进通信公司（Advance Communications）的纽豪斯（Si Newhouse）现年83岁，他们都满足于担任董事会主席，而将日常的管理工作交由其他人打理。
但 是如果你认为默多克年纪太大不适合担任CEO，那么请看一下在榜单上排在他之后的CEO：沃伦・巴菲特（Warren Buffett），他旗下的伯克希 尔・哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）市值达到1,880亿美元，他依然敏锐的投资洞察力去年为其个人资产增加30亿美元。
年 龄增大以及伴随而来的认识能力下降是影响CEO表现的重要因素。但是两者之间的关系并非一贯如此。保罗・马修斯（Paul Mathews）是一名研究科 学家，也是纽约州大学药学院的精神病学助理教授。他指出：“在各种人群当中存在着丰富的多样性，有些人到60岁的时候老年化非常严重，但是有些人到了90 岁依然宝刀未老。”
此外，还有范围广泛的“心智功能”。“心智功能大大取决于从事的工作。”密歇根大学神经学教授罗杰・阿尔宾 （Roger Albin）说，他同时也是密西根大学安娜堡分校老年医学研究、教育和临床中心神经系统科学研究负责人。“那些每天除了去钓鱼之外就无所事 事的退休人员，显然与生活在紧张工作环境中的人面对非常不同的情况。”
即 使这些身居要职的老人家也受脑部老龄化的影响，并且令人惊奇的是，这些影响在生命早期就开始产生。对于一般人而言，从20岁开始，认识处理能力每年下降 0.5%至1%。到你达到标准的退休年龄时，“你的能力退化了20%至30%，” 加州大学戴维斯分校老年学研究所主任克莱伯・芬奇 （Caleb Finch）表示，“记忆和高速处理或多任务处理能力甚至大幅降低。处理多渠道信息而不犯错的能力大大减弱。”
CEO每天必须处理棘手的任务和来自多个渠道的数据。此外还必须具备将新创意与现有思想模式进行整合的能力，这在科技等快速变化的领域尤为重要。这种所谓的“流体智力”（fluid intelligence）能力也随着年龄增大而减弱。
“所有这些看起来有点矛盾，因为随着我们年纪增大，我们掌握更多管理能力，”芬奇表示。“但是，当然，我们也更多地了解到如何处理自己的错误。”
然而，不管你的反应速度多快，甚少公司愿意聘请25岁的年轻人担当要职（起码在硅谷之外是这样的），因为他们注重的是那些来之不易的经验阅历。“你必须在信息处理的速度与做决定时能够依赖的经验之间达到一定的平衡，”马修斯指出。
这 种经验是相当重要的。沃尔特・扎博尔（Walter J. Zable）自1951年创办圣地亚哥国防和技术公司Cubic 以来，一直担任公司的 CEO。年届95岁的扎博尔是所有市值不低于5亿美元的上市公司中年纪最大的CEO。科技实际上是他从事的第二种职业：在20世纪30年代末，他曾为职业 美式足球队里士满箭队和纽约巨人队效力。
现 年91岁的梅尔文・戈登（Melvin J. Gordon）是糖果公司Tootsie Roll Industries的CEO，他开始工作的时候也是 从事不同的行业。在1952年加盟现在这家公司之前，他曾经营袜类生产厂。戈登曾表示，在销售长袜时积累的零售知识对其以后在Tootsie Roll的 成功有较大裨益 这也证明了流体智力的作用。
另一方面，部分CEO终身从事同一个行业，并从中受益。零售公司好市多（Costco）CEO詹姆斯・西格尔(James Sinegal)自1954年开始进入零售行业，并在折扣店Price Club创始人索尔・普莱斯（Sol Price）手下学习贸易知识。经过普莱斯多年的教导，西格尔在1983年成立自己的第一家折扣连锁店。西格尔在对待客户和员工方面的理念是好市多成功的核心所在。
对 于鲁珀特・默多克在听证会上看似不堪重负的表现，研究脑部老化的专家却表示，不宜仅根据几次长时间的沉默和一些模棱两可的回答就对默多克的总体能力下任何 定论。“面对这样紧张的局面，对他总体的认知能力下任何定论都是非常不公平和不适当的。”马修斯说。其意思就是：如果把马克・扎克伯格 （Mark Zuckerberg）拉到国会前，他可能也变得沉默少语。
在市值至少达到5亿美元的上市公司中，年龄不低于75岁的CEO共有24人。
(本文来源：福布斯中文网。 更多精彩内容，请登陆福布斯中文网 http://www.ForbesChina.com/ )
Media
Murdoch and Buffett Among the Oldest CEOs. Does It Matter?
It’s been impossible to watch the unfolding saga of News Corp.’s hacking scandal without thinking about age. Time and again during his three-hour appearance before a committee of Parliament last week, Rupert Murdoch, the media conglomerate’s 80-year-old chairman and CEO, appeared to struggle to recall a name, reconstruct a sequence of events, or even just hear the question he was being asked. At one point, his head jerked as though he had dozed off, a moment later highlighted on “The Daily Show.” Underscoring the impression was the contrasting presence at his side of his vigorous 38-year-old son and sometime heir apparent, James, who parried questions with alacrity and seemed to have reams of data at his easy recall.
If Murdoch came off as unusually elderly for a chief executive, that may be because, well, he is. To be precise, he’s the seventh-oldest CEO of a public company with a market capitalization of at least $500 million, according to data compiled by Forbes. Among the six men older than he in that position — and they are all men — none runs a firm with a cap above $11 billion; News Corp.’s is around $40 billion. (See the full list of public company CEOs age 75 and older at the bottom of this post.) And while some of Murdoch’s fellow media moguls are senior to him — Viacom‘s Sumner Redstone is 88, and Si Newhouse of Advance Communications is 83 — they are content to serve as chairmen, allowing others to handle day-to-day management.
But before you conclude that Murdoch is too old for his job, consider who’s just below him on the list of oldest CEOs: Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway is worth $188 billion, and whose undiminished investing acumen added $3 billion to his personal fortune last year.
Age, and the cognitive decline that goes along with it, is a very real factor in CEO performance. But the relationship between the two is far from consistent. “There’s enough variability across the population that there are individuals who are aging very significantly in their 60′s, and there are individuals who are really intact in their 90s,” says Paul Mathews, a research scientist and assistant professor of psychiatry at the NYU School of Medicine.
There’s also a wide range of what might be considered acceptable mental function. “It varies tremendously depending on the job,” says Roger Albin, professor of neurology at the University of Michigan and chief of neuroscience research at Ann Arbor VA’s Geriatrics Research, Education and Clinical Center. “Somebody who’s retired and does nothing but go out fishing every day is clearly in a very different situation from somebody in a demanding professional environment.”
Even those oldsters who function at a high level are subject to the effects of age on the brain — and they start surprisingly early in life. For the average person, beginning in your twenties, there’s a decline in cognitive processing of 0.5 percent to 1 percent per year. By the time you reach standard retirement age, “you’re down 20 to 30 percent in your capacity,” says Caleb Finch, director of the Gerontology Research Institute at USC Davis. “Memory and high-speed processing or multi-tasking declines even more abruptly. Being able to handle multiple streams of information without errors declines sharply.”
The ability to juggle competing tasks and streams of data is exactly what a CEO’s job demands every hour of every day. So is the ability to integrate new ideas into existing mental models, particularly in fast-changing fields like technology. That ability, known as fluid intelligence, also declines with age.
“All this seems contradictory because as we get more senior, we get more administrative capacities,” says Finch. “But, of course, we’ve learned more about how to cope with our mistakes.”
That hard-won knowledge is the reason few companies — at least outside Silicon Valley — would want a 25-year-old in the corner office, no matter how lightning-fast his synapses fire. “You have to balance the speed at which you can process information into working memory against the total sum of your experiences you can bring to bear on that decision,” says Mathews.
Those experiences can be considerable. Walter J. Zable has been the CEO of Cubic, a San Diego-based defense and technology company, since he founded it in 1951. At 95, Zable is the oldest CEO of a public company valued at at least $500 million. Technology is actually his second career: In the late 1930s, he played professional football for the Richmond Arrows and the New York Giants.
Melvin J. Gordon, the 91-year-old CEO of Tootsie Roll Industries, also got his start in a different field. Before joining the candy manufacturer way back in 1952, he ran a hosiery maker. Gordon has said the retail savvy he acquired selling stockings was instrumental in his later success at Tootsie Roll — a demonstration of fluid intelligence at work.
Some CEOs, on the other hand, benefit from spending their entire professional lives mastering one field. Costco CEO James Sinegal got his start in the retail business in 1954, and learned his trade at the feet of legendary Price Club founder Sol Price. Years of price’s tutelage prepared him for the launch of his own discount chain in 1983. Sinegal’s philosophies about the proper way to treat customers and employees are at the core of Costco’s success.
As for Rupert Murdoch’s creaky-seeming performance at the hearing, experts in brain aging caution against jumping to any conclusions about Murdoch’s overall functioning based on a few long pauses and vague answers. “To sit in that kind of stress situation and draw any inferences as to somebody’s general cognitive status is very unfair and inappropriate,” says Mathews. Translation: If someone dragged Mark Zuckerberg in front of Parliament, he might be at a loss for words, too.
These are the 24 men age 75 and older who are CEOs of public companies with market capitalizations of at least $500 million.
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