本来,新闻头条的作者们可以轻轻松松地把猪肉写为导致中国通胀的罪魁祸首;当然,猪肉的英文单词"pork"只有四个字母,而且有许多双关用法。所以你可以想象,当他们发现新的罪魁祸首原来是党参(Codonopsis pilosula)时,会有多么沮丧。
不过,这种草药的命运充分说明了中国抗击通胀的情况。
党参的根是中医大夫熟悉的药材,可用于降血压和加强免疫力。上周,中国政府发誓要整治囤积党参的药商,理由是他们推高了这种中药材的价格,损害了全民健康,这使得党参一跃成为金融界瞩目的对象。
国家发展和改革委员会(NDRC)在宣布整治行动时表示,这种根茎类药材的价格已飙升至每公斤90元人民币,是2009年8月价格的10倍以上。国家发改委是一个权力很大的中央计划政府部门。
与在居民消费价格(CPI)中占比3%的猪肉相比,党参在中国通胀篮子中的占比微乎其微。但这种传统药材价格的日益上涨,正是中国领导人所担忧的那类通胀,因为它对穷人和农村居民的影响更大,这些人更有可能将党参当作必不可少的保健品。因此,党参有一个俗称,叫作"穷人的人参"。
为了稳定党参价格,发改委发誓要杜绝囤积党参的行为。它要求10家药商在上周四前以每公斤60元人民币的价格出售200吨存货,这比现行市场价格低三分之一。另有44家药商被勒令在12月之前出售800吨存货。
这种措施是发改委的典型政策措施。虽然中国经济在很多方面类似于不受控制的自由市场,但发改委是最容易不时诉诸共产主义时代中央计划手段的政府部门。
在通胀面前,发改委本能地诉诸行政命令和限价措施。在今年早些时候一次人尽皆知的行动中,发改委对联合利华(Unilever)开出了罚单,因为后者发表肥皂等产品的涨价言论――尽管它并未将涨价付诸实施。
如果持续进行价格限制,其后果很容易预料。在甘肃省省会兰州,当政府官员试图限制牛肉拉面的价格时,餐馆老板们的对策是减少每碗拉面里的牛肉份量。
如果党参对健康的重要性确如中医大夫所说的那样,发改委或许应该考虑一下拉面这个先例。"穷人的人参"可能遭遇剂量瘦身。
译者/方舟
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001039781
Headline writers had an easy enough time coping with pork as the driver of Chinese inflation; it is, of course, just four-letters long and full of punning possibilities. You can imagine their dismay, then, to find that a new culprit was Codonopsis pilosula.
Yet the fate of this medicinal herb speaks volumes about China's battle with inflation.
The root of C. pilosula has long been known to Chinese doctors for its usefulness in lowering blood pressure and strengthening the immune system. It shot to prominence in the financial world this week when the government vowed to punish hoarders of the herb, saying they had driven up the price of Chinese medicine and, in so doing, endangered the health of the population.
The price of the root has soared to Rmb90/kg, more than 10-times its cost in August 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a powerful central planning agency, said in announcing the crackdown.
C. pilosula forms a microscopic part of China's inflation basket compared with pork, which accounts for an estimated 3 per cent of the consumer price index. But the rising cost of traditional medicine is just the kind of inflation that Chinese leaders fear, because it has a disproportionate impact on poor, rural citizens, who are more likely to view C. pilosula as an essential part of their health regimen. Hence the root's colloquial name: "poor man's ginseng".
To stabilise the price of the medicinal root, the NDRC vowed to put an end to hoarding. It told 10 merchants to sell their 200 tonne stocks of C. pilosula before Thursday at a price of Rmb60/kg, a third less than the prevailing market price. A further 44 merchants were ordered to sell their 800 tonne stocks by December.
Such measures are characteristic of the NDRC's approach to policy. Although great swathes of the Chinese economy now resemble an unbridled free market, the NDRC is the government institution most prone to spasms of communist-era central planning.
Faced with inflation, it instinctively reaches for administrative fiat and price controls. In a notorious case earlier this year, it fined Unilever for talking about price increases for soap even though they were never put into effect.
The consequences of price controls, if implemented in a sustained fashion, are predictable enough. When officials tried to cap the price of beef noodles in Lanzhou, the capital of western Gansu province, restaurant owners responded by cutting the amount of meat in each bowl.
The NDRC might want to consider that precedent if C. pilosula is as important to health as traditional doctors say it is. Doses of poor man's ginseng could get a lot lighter.
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