中国在海外企业收购方面也许一度拥有谨慎的名声，但中国已不再惧怕向棘手的经济或政治地盘进军。
在这一点上，任何怀疑都已被下列消息驱散：中国政府已让国有的中化集团(Sinochem)拟订计划，准备干预必和必拓(BHP Billiton)以390亿美元收购加拿大钾肥(PotashCorp)。
中方尚未宣布是否有意发出竞争性收购报价。但其雄心是明显的——作为全球最大的钾肥进口国，它想要对全球最大钾肥生产商的命运拥有话语权。而北京方面不会被艰苦卓绝的国际并购战场上以往的挫折所吓倒。
中国在海外并购方面首次成为头条新闻，是2004年联想(Lenovo)以17.5亿美元成功收购IBM的个人电脑业务。但此后中方的努力遇到障碍，国有的中海油(CNOOC)以185亿美元敌意竞购美国能源集团优尼科(Unocoal)未成，原因是美国政界人士将这宗交易定性为一种战略威胁。
去年，国有的中铝集团(Chinalco)曾计划投入195亿美元，增加对矿业集团力拓(Rio Tinto)的投资（中铝是力拓的最大股东），但以失败告终。力拓的其他股东否决了这宗得到管理层支持的交易，理由是其对中铝过于慷慨。但澳大利亚政府也曾质疑相关计划的战略影响。
力拓和中铝很快摆脱了这宗交易的阴影继续前进。今年夏天，中铝集团的上市子公司中国铝业(Chalco)斥资13.5亿美元，购得力拓控股的一个几内亚铁矿石项目的44.6%股权。
中化集团迄今尚未完成任何一宗大型国际交易，该集团去年未能完成对澳大利亚农用化学品生产商Nufarm的竞购。中化集团将其28亿澳元的报价削减了8%，结果被日本的住友商社(Sumitomo)胜出，住友收购了Nufarm的20%股权。
围绕加拿大钾肥的竞购战仍处于早期阶段，中国政府让中化集团在这家加拿大肥料企业中“持有权益”。全面竞购的代价将是中铝对力拓流产的投资计划的两倍。但是，购买15%阻拦性股权的价码将为大约80亿美元。
中化集团能够获得中国庞大的金融资源，包括中国国有银行可能的软贷款及/或主权财富基金中国投资公司(CIC)的支持。中国甚至可能在加拿大争取到各机构的支持，当地对必和必拓的敌意收购相当反对。
中国官员十分清楚大型国际投资必然牵涉的复杂政治、经济和商业背景。不知是不是巧合，日前《中国日报》发表了一篇题为《海外投资面临崎岖道路》(Ventures abroad facing a bumpy road)的评论文章。
中欧国际工商学院(CEIBS)执行院长、管理学教授朱晓明和院长、创业学教授佩德罗•雷诺(Pedro Nueno)在文中写道：
“中国企业进军海外，必然是一段布满波折的旅程，在此过程中，中国企业不仅会面临全球竞争和外部压力，还必须在内部显著改进自己的管理技能。”
他们补充道：
“尽管许多中国企业相当敏捷，并具有远大的雄心，但其中一些企业缺乏实现目标所需的高效管理制度和程序。中国不甚完善的体制环境和快速变化的市场，诱使许多国内企业未经仔细分析就一窝蜂地利用‘机遇’。”
看一下最新的外国直接投资(FDI)数据就会明白，这方面的挑战只会变得更大。中国商务部周一称，中国今年的对外投资可能达到600亿美元，高于2009年的565亿美元，而未来几年还可能进一步增长。
与此同时，尽管一些领先的西方跨国公司表示疑虑，但今年进入中国的外来投资可能将首次突破1000亿美元。非金融外商直接投资在2008年达到924亿美元的峰值，但在全球金融危机爆发后，在2009年跌至900亿美元。尽管这方面的总数包括大量经过香港周转的中国投资，但趋势无疑是向上的。
据官方的新华社报道，中国商务部表示，外国投资者看好中国的经济前景，而北京方面改善投资环境的努力增强了他们的信心。今年头七个月，中国吸引了584亿美元的外商直接投资，比2009年同期增长20.7%。
因此，就目前而言，外来投资继续远超中国对外投资。但是，如果中国方面对加拿大钾肥发起逾400亿美元的竞购，那将使中国今年的对外投资金额基本上赶上外来投资。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034493
China may have once have had a reputation for caution in its foreign corporate forays but it’s no longer scared of marching into difficult economic or political territory.
Any doubts on this score are dispelled by the news that the Beijing government has authorised Sinochem, the state chemicals group, to work on plans for intervening in BHP Billiton’s $39bn effort to take over Canada’s PotashCorp.
China has not declared its intentions on a possible counterbid. But its ambitions are obvious - as the world’s biggest potash importer it wants a say in the fate of the world’s largest producer. And Beijing will not be put off by its past reverses on the bruising battlefield of international mergers and acquisitions.
China first made big headlines in overseas m&a in 2004 with Lenovo’s successful $1.75bn acquisition of IBM’s personal computer business. But it ran into trouble when CNOOC, the state oil company’s, failed $18.5bn hostile bid for Unocoal, the US energy group, after American politicians portrayed the move as a strategic threat.
Last year, Chinalco, the Chinese state metals group, lost out in an $19.5bn move to increase its investment in Rio Tinto, the mining group, where it is the largest shareholder. Other shareholders threw out the management-backed deal as too generous to Chinalco. But the Australian government also raised questions about the plan’s strategic implications.
Rio and Chinalco have quickly moved on, with Chalco, Chinalco’s listed subsidiary, this summer buying a 44.6 per cent stake in a Rio-controlled iron ore project in Guinea for $1.35bn.
Sinochem has yet to execute a big international deal having failed last year to complete a bid for Australia’s Nufarm, an agricultural chemicals producer. Sinochem cut its A$2.8bn offer by 8 per cent and was trumped by Japan’s Sumitomo, which went on to buy a 20 per cent stake in Nufarm.
It is early days in the PotashCorp story, with the Beijing government asking Sinochem “to take an interest” in the Canadian fertiliser company. A full bid would cost double Chinalco’s abortive Rio investment plan. But the purchase of a 15 per cent blocking stake would be priced at around $8bn.
Sinochem has access to China’s huge financial resources, including possible soft loans from Chinese state banks and/or support from China Investment Corp, the sovereign wealth fund. China could even secure backing from institutions in Canada, where there is considerable opposition to BHP’s hostile bid.
Chinese officials are acutely aware of the complex political, economic and commercial context in which chunky international investments are made. Whether by coincidence or not, China Daily today carries an opinion piece titled “Ventures abroad facing a bumpy road.”
Zhu Xiaoming, executive president and professor of management at the China Europe International Business School, and Pedro Nueno the president and professor of entrepreneurship, write:
As they venture abroad on what will surely be a journey full of twists and turns, Chinese companies will not only face global competition and external pressure, but they will also have to significantly improve their management skills at the internal level.
They add:
While many Chinese companies are agile and have lofty ambitions, some of them lack the efficient management systems and processes needed to implement their goals. China’s imperfect institutional environment and rapidly changing marketplace entice many domestic companies to rush to take advantage of “opportunities” without careful analysis.
A quick glance at the latest FDI figures, and it becomes clear that the challenges will only grow bigger. The commerce ministry said on Monday that China’s outbound investments this year were likely to reach $60bn, up from $56.5 billion in 2009, with further increases likely in coming years.
Meanwhile, despite the misgivings voiced by some leading western multinationals, foreign investment into China is likely to pass $100bn this year for the first time. Non-financial FDI hit a record $92.4bn in 2008 but fell to $90 billion in 2009 after the global financial crisis.While the totals include significant amounts of Chinese investment round-tripping via Hong Kong, the trend is unmistakeably upward.
Foreign investors are upbeat about China’s economic outlook and Beijing’s efforts to improve the investment environment have boosted their confidence, according to the commerce ministry, the official Xinhua news agency reported. China attracted $58.4 bn in FDI in the first seven months of the year, up 20.7 percent from the same period of 2009.
So, for the moment, inbound investment continues to far exceed outbound. But with a a $40bn-plus bid for PotashCorp, the numbers would more or less balance out…
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