两年内发生两次粮食危机是为世人敲响的一记警钟。去年，在意大利小城拉奎拉召开的八国集团(G8)峰会上，G8领导人承诺将加强全球粮食安全，以避免2007-08年的粮食短缺情况重演。而上周，俄罗斯宣布延长谷物出口禁令，同时莫桑比克爆发粮食骚乱，说明要实现上述目标，仍需付出大量努力。
但两轮危机之间的相似之处不应被夸大。尽管最近小麦价格飙升，但粮食价格仍远低于2008年初时的峰值水平。
尽管如此，人们又一次看到，起初只是由于恶劣天气事件导致的小麦价格飙升，正不断推高其它大宗商品价格。起初的价格上涨已演变成了出口禁令。诚然，目前只有俄罗斯一国正式颁布了禁令。但乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦也施行了非正式的出口限制。这些因素都扰乱了国际市场，并助长了囤积行为。尽管目前的粮食储量高于两年前，但仍不足以化解严峻的供应危机。
若不是经历过2007-08年那次痛苦的危机，本轮危机可能早就演变成了一场重大的危机。两次危机之间的间隔如此之短，各国必须立即采取行动。指望过去那些有利条件会重现的想法，是不负责任的。
重点关注粮食安全是一种明智的做法。发展中国家粮食与政局稳定之间的关系显而易见。2007-08年危机曾引发大范围骚乱，导致了海地和马达加斯加政府的倒台。上周，莫桑比克骚乱的诱因，就是面包价格突然暴涨30%。
有一些事情可以做。最重要的是，有必要加大对灌溉的投资，并采取其它措施，提高土壤质量和收成的弹性。发达国家一直过于注重提供粮食援助，而忽视了开发援助。例如，芝加哥全球事务委员会(The Chicago Council on Global Affairs)去年发布的一份报告显示，在非洲，美国在粮食援助方面的开支是开发援助的20倍。这种平衡亟需改变。
人们还应采取措施，在危机来袭时，降低其危害程度。各国可能需要增加储备，还须确立相关国际规则，杜绝各国自行暂停农业出口的情况出现。
仅仅依靠动听的辞令是远远不够的。金融危机已导致援助预算大幅缩水。达成多边贸易协定决非易事。但正如最近发生的事件所表明的那样，拉奎拉议程仍一如既往地重要。
译者/陈云飞
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034487
A second food crisis in as many years is a wake-up call. At a meeting in the Italian town of L’Aquila last year, the leaders of the G8 pledged to enhance global food security to prevent a repetition of the 2007-08 shortages. Last week’s extension of Russia’s grain ban and eruption of food riots in Mozambique shows how much needs to be done to meet this goal.
The parallels with the last crisis should not be overstated. Despite the recent spike in wheat, food prices are still well below the peaks they reached in early 2008.
Nonetheless, once again, an initial spike in wheat prices, caused by adverse weather events, is pushing other commodities higher. The initial rise has then been exacerbated by export bans. True, only Russia has so far imposed a formal embargo. But there are informal restrictions on exports from Ukraine and Kazakhstan. These disrupt international markets and promote hoarding. While reserves are higher than two years ago, they are not sufficiently deep to absorb a serious supply shock.
If we did not have the baleful example of 2007-08, this would already be a significant crisis. Coming so soon after the last one, it is call to action. It would be irresponsible to expect the benign conditions of the past to return.
Focusing on food security is sensible. The link between food and political stability in the developing world is clear. The crisis of 2007-08 sparked widespread riots, bringing down governments in Haiti and Madagascar. Last week’s unrest in Mozambique was provoked by a sudden 30 per cent hike in the bread price.
Things can be done. Most importantly, there is a need for greater investment in irrigation and other measures to improve land quality as well as crop resilience. Developed countries have focused too much on food aid rather than providing development assistance. The US, for instance, spends 20 times more on the former than the latter in Africa, according to a report last year from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. This balance needs to change.
Steps should be taken to mitigate the severity of crises when they strike. Bigger reserves will probably be needed, as will international rules to clear up the circumstances under which countries can suspend agricultural exports.
This will take more than fine words. The financial crisis has squeezed aid budgets. It is never easy to reach multilateral trade agreements. But as recent events have demonstrated, the L’Aquila agenda is as important as ever.
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