亲爱的经济学家：
出门在外的时候，我总面临一项困难的选择：在写字楼或酒店的洗手间里，到底该用哪个隔间呢？我总是努力去猜想哪一间被使用得最少。概率论告诉我，所有隔间被使用的概率应该是相等的。不过也许人类的心理因素对此也有影响呢。我男朋友认为最后一间被用得最少，而我的看法却正好相反。也许这证明了所有隔间平均被使用的次数是相等的。你会用哪一间呢？
扬•卢坎(Jan Lucan)，布拉格
亲爱的扬，
根据有效市场假说，股票和债券交易员会涌向被低估的资产，从而驱动其价格上升。如果是这样的话，无知的投资人就可以随机选取，因为她知道自己所选资产的价格会和其他资产一样公道。
让我们假设每一个人，比如你，都希望使用那间最少被光顾的隔间。我们可以拿有效市场假说来分析公共卫生间吗？如果可以，你只要选择任何一个你想进的隔间即可。
但是，即使在金融市场上，有效市场假说也并未得到普遍认同，在公共洗手间领域就更缺乏说服力了。毕竟，还没有高薪的“厕所交易员”从事套利活动——就算有，这个术语通常也是用在一个完全不同的行业。因此，你也许会发现一些系统性错误。
互联网上进行的一项调查显示，许多人会走向最远处的隔间，比如你的男朋友。另一个网站则宣称，最近的隔间最少被使用。
不过，所有这些都让人有点不解。你挑选厕所隔间的策略使我想起沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的一句话——“分散投资对无知的投资人来说是一种保护”。想来你只需一间放有卫生纸的干净厕所，做一点研究、查看几个隔间不至于要你命吧？这就是我的做法。
提问请发邮件至economist@ft.com
译者/麦可林
Dear Economist,
When I travel I am faced with a difficult choice: which of the toilet booths to use in offices or hotels. I always try to guess which one is the least used. Probability theory should tell me that all the booths should be equally used, but perhaps human psychology plays a part in this. My boyfriend believes the last one is the least used – contrarily, I believe the opposite. Perhaps this proves that, on average, all are equally used. Which one do you use?
Jan Lucan, Prague
Dear Jan,
The efficient market hypothesis says that stock and bond traders will swoop on underpriced assets, driving their prices up. If so, an ignorant investor may pick and choose at random, knowing that her selections will be priced as keenly as any others.
Let us assume that everyone, like you, wishes to use the stall less travelled. Can we apply the hypothesis to public lavatories? If so, you may pick any stall you wish.
But the efficient market hypothesis is not universally accepted even in financial markets, and in public toilets it is less convincing. After all, there are no highly paid “toilet traders” engaging in arbitrage – or if there are, the term conventionally applies to a different profession altogether. So perhaps there are systematic errors to exploit.
Internet research uncovers one poll that suggests that many people, like your boyfriend, head to the farthest cubicle. Another site claims that the nearest stall is the least used.
But all this is a little puzzling. Your stall-picking strategy reminds me of Warren Buffett’s comment that “diversification is a protection against ignorance”. Presumably you just want a clean toilet with some paper. Would it kill you to do a little research and check a couple of stalls? That’s what I do.
Questions to economist@ft.com
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