蒋文（音译）不知道必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和加拿大钾肥(PotashCorp)，但他知道，这两家企业在一宗价值390亿美元的敌意收购中争夺的那种矿物，对北京郊区杜庄的农民来说至关重要。
"我从没听说过必和必拓——这是说钾盐要涨价了吗？"蒋文在他的化肥店里再三问道。在中国的农业地区也有许多人说，没听说什么世界第一大矿商要收购一家加拿大化肥公司的消息。但他们对钾盐（用于生产化肥的一种矿物）的价格和供应情况却极其关心。
作为本轮行业并购热潮中最大的动作，这项收购案的影响范围决不限于投资银行家和这两家集团的董事会成员。蒋文的焦虑，正折射出全球化、人口、农业与粮食安全等各因素相互之间的影响与日俱增。
二战后，世界大部分地区都摆脱了粮食短缺隐患，尤其是上世纪60年代的"绿色革命"时期，由于化肥和高产种子的应用，农业生产力得到迅速提高。
随着新千年农业的复兴，投资者扩大了他们投资组合中钾肥——以及磷肥和氮肥等其它化肥——的比重。在这股趋势的背后，则是中国等新兴国家的崛起，以及数十亿中产阶层的兴起——这部分人如今在饮食上要求更为丰盛，已不满足于稻米和小麦这些传统主食。
这种转变让长期以来习惯了被忽视的这个行业感到意外。1989年11月，在一个寒冷的早晨，加拿大农业大省萨斯喀彻温省的政府拉开了加拿大钾肥的私有化序幕——进行首次公开发行(IPO)。此次IPO仅融得2.31亿美元资金。发行价为每股18美元，而由于投资者兴趣寥寥，首个交易日收盘时跌到了17.75美元。
那个年代，投资者对钾盐之类的冷僻大宗商品没什么兴趣。美国化肥集团美盛公司(Mosaic)的首席执行官吉姆•普罗科潘柯(Jim Prokopanko)解释道，农业及其支持产业过去没有得到"充分重视"。此外，当时在粮食生产上的问题是过剩。在欧洲，人们谈论的是堆成山的谷物和黄油、流成河的牛奶和葡萄酒。中国、印度、巴西等等新兴国家都还没有崛起；俄罗斯仍是苏联的一部分。谁能想到粮食丰足的时代会转瞬即逝。
20年过去了，形势已今非昔比。"以必和必拓这般规模的矿商，也会有兴趣斥资数百亿美元收购10年前不太会关注的钾肥业务，可见形势是变了。"普罗科潘柯说道。加拿大钾肥本身已发展为全球第一大上市化肥公司。与此同时，化肥行业已成为华尔街并购银行家的宠儿。据数据提供商Dealogic表示，今年前8个月，该行业企业对外公布的并购交易总值610亿美元，较2008年的峰值水平高出了一倍不止。算上俄罗斯两家化肥集团Uralkali和Silvinit即将告成的合并交易，今年化肥行业的并购活动有望突破900亿美元。
化肥行业发生巨变的根本原因，是另一种大宗商品的短缺情况日益严峻：粮食。自2007-08年危机以来，投资者已重拾对谷物的兴趣——在长期经济走势、人口发展趋势，以及恶劣天气、油价飞涨等短期问题的综合作用下，谷物价格屡创新高，同时从海地到孟加拉等多个国家均爆发了骚乱。
全球最大氮肥生产商——挪威Yara公司的首席财务官哈尔盖•斯托维克(Hallgeir Storvik)表示，这种情形促使人们将"农业问题提上了国际议程"。如今，粮食安全已成为八国集团(G8)之间热议的话题之一。
本轮经济危机让化肥成为了企业关注的焦点。在2008年，钾肥的价格从2006年的不到150美元/吨飙升到了近1000美元/吨。
现代农业严重依赖化肥——以及转基因等更优良的种子——来提高农作物产量，以防止出现上世纪中叶学者们所预言的全球性饥荒。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)驻纽约的文森特•安德鲁斯(Vincent Andrews)表示："钾肥实际上就等于粮食。"
科学家们希望借助各种新技术来进一步提高农作物产量，如本周发布的小麦基因组，就有助于庄稼种植者培育改良品种。
在很多年里，与全球人口增长相比，化肥消耗量的增长相当缓慢。但自上世纪90年代以来，一些新出现的因素，导致了化肥需求增长加快。这些因素包括：中国及其它新兴国家的经济增长迅速，人们对肉类和乳类等蛋白质的需求增加，对用作牲畜饲料的谷物需求也迅速增加。全球生物燃料行业的发展，也进一步提高了对农产品以及化肥的需求。联合国粮农组织(FAO)预计，从现在起到2050年，全球人口将增加30亿至逾90亿，而全球粮食需求将增长70%，这将进一步加大对化肥的需求。
因此，各国开始像重视原油一样重视钾肥：将其视为一种受到追逐的战略性大宗商品。
但是，与原油一样，全球钾矿资源的分布并不均匀。以加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和以色列为首的少数几个国家，控制着全球的大部分钾矿资源。八大巨头所供应的钾盐，占全球的80%以上。面向北美生产商的Canpotex，与面向俄罗斯和白俄罗斯市场的BPC，两家企业操控着全球的大部分钾肥交易。
供应的集中，让人们担心钾肥市场会过于紧俏、而且政治色彩浓重。"必和必拓收购加拿大钾肥，对中国农业的决杀？"——《中国经营报》(China Business Journal)网站上打出了这样一个扣人心弦的标题。该文称，"如果中国能调控该市场，未来中国农业乃至国家大业都将受益匪浅"——但如果加拿大钾肥被必和必拓所收购，后者将控制整个钾肥市场及其定价体系。
其他国家，从印度（第二大钾盐进口国）到巴西（主要农产品出口国，但化肥依赖进口），都在密切关注着这场争斗。但在中国，粮食市场是受到严格管理的，以确保农民生产足够的粮食，满足不断增长的人口之需，所以中国的不安情绪似乎最为强烈。很少有哪个国家像中国这样重视粮食的自给自足——实际上，这是中国共产党1949年赖以掌权的承诺之一。
要信守这个承诺，在一定程度上要靠钾肥，这是中国唯一一种严重短缺的化肥。用仅占全球7%的耕地养活全球20%人口的中国，对化肥的需求非常大。
中国自己的钾肥产量不大，有一半左右必须靠进口。为政府献策的中国社科院(CASS)在一份报告中指出，这种依赖"可能会对中国快速发展的国民经济和长期战略需要构成重大威胁"。所以说，中国主要钾肥进口商中化集团(Sinochem)表示正"密切关注"加钾收购战，令人猜想该集团有可能发起竞购，是不足为奇的。
在能源和金属领域，中国在非洲、亚洲及其它地区四处展开收购。与之相比，中国的农业部门历来不在全球的关注范围之内。但随着中国力争实现其粮食自给目标，以及化肥市场吃紧，这种情况正在改变。中国政府私下鼓励国有农业企业走向海外。粮食贸易集团中粮集团(Cofco)和化工集团中化集团，一直致力于在海外猎取农业领域的交易目标，成败参半。
加钾收购战，是检验各企业、以及各国如何看待全球粮食供应趋紧前景的一枚试金石。在上世纪，有关谁来养活世界这一令人苦恼的问题，总能以一些突破性的方法得到解决，结果都能够满足人口增长带来的需求。
而如果一家中国国有企业在钾肥行业的山头插上了自己的旗帜，可能意味着，农业地缘政治领域的争斗将变得更加你死我活。
Eliot Gao补充报道
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034443
Jiang Wen does not know BHP Billiton or PotashCorp. But he knows that the mineral over which the companies are fighting in a $39bn hostile takeover is crucial for the farmers in Duzhuang, a village near Beijing.
"I've never heard of BHP – does this mean the price of potash is going to rise?" Mr Jiang asks repeatedly from his fertiliser store. Others in China's agricultural areas say they have not heard of the bid for the Canadian fertiliser company by the world's largest miner. But their interest in the price and availability of potash, a mineral used in fertilisers, is keen.
The significance of the bid, the biggest in a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the sector, reaches beyond investment bankers and boardrooms. Mr Jiang's anxiety encapsulates the increasing interaction between globalisation, demographics, agriculture and food security.
Following the second world war – and particularly the rapid increase in productivity brought about by the Green Revolution in the 1960s, based on the use of fertilisers and high-yielding seeds – the threat of scarcity had largely vanished from the world.
The ascent of potash – and other fertilisers such as phosphate and nitrogen – into investors' portfolios tracks the resurgence of agriculture in the new millennium. Behind this is the rise of emerging countries such as China and the elevation to the middle class of billions of people who now require a diet richer than the traditional staples of rice and wheat.
The transformation has surprised an industry long used to being ignored. One cold morning in November 1989, the government of the rural Canadian province of Saskatchewan started the privatisation of PotashCorp through an initial public offering – and raised a mere $231m. It sold the shares at $18 but, by the end of the first trading day with investors showing little interest, the price had fallen to $17.75.
Those were the days when investors were little interested in an obscure commodity such as potash. Agriculture and its support industries were not "fully appreciated", explains Jim Prokopanko, chief executive of US-based fertiliser group Mosaic. Besides, the problem with food production at the time was excess. The talk in Europe was of grain and butter mountains, and lakes of milk and wine. China, India, Brazil and other emerging countries were yet to rise; Russia was still part of the Soviet Union. Few imagined the era of abundance would end any time soon.
Two decades on, the situation has changed. "You can see that with a mining company the size of BHP interested in acquiring, [for] billions of dollars, a potash operation that 10 years ago didn't have much attention," says Mr Prokopanko. PotashCorp itself has been transformed into the world's largest listed fertiliser company. Meanwhile, the sector has become the darling of Wall Street's M&A bankers. In the first eight months of the year, deals valued at $61bn have been announced by companies in the industry, a high that more than doubles the peak hit in 2008, according to Dealogic, a data provider. Including the looming merger of Russian fertiliser groups Uralkali and Silvinit, M&A activity could reach more than $90bn (€71bn, £58bn) this year.
Underlying the revolution in the fertiliser industry is the increasing scarcity of another commodity: food. Since the crisis of 2007-08 – when long-term economic and demographic trends combined with short-term problems such as bad weather and a spike in oil costs to produce record prices for crops and riots in countries from Haiti to Bangladesh – investors have regained their interest.
The episode lifted "the issue of agriculture on the global agenda", says Hallgeir Storvik, chief financial officer of Yara of Norway, the world's largest nitrogen fertiliser producer. Food security is today hotly debated among the Group of Eight leading industrialised countries.
The crisis placed fertilisers in the corporate spotlight, with the cost of potash rising from less than $150 in 2006 to almost $1,000 a tonne in 2008.
Modern agriculture relies heavily on fertiliser – as well as better seeds, including genetically modified ones – to boost crop yields, preventing the global famine that pundits predicted in the middle of the last century. "Potash, for all intents and purposes, is food," says Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley in New York.
Scientists hope to boost yields even further through discoveries, such as this week's publication of the wheat genome, which would help crop breeders to develop improved varieties.
For years, fertiliser consumption increased only slowly, in parallel with the growth in global population. But in the late 1990s and 2000s, new factors accelerated demand – including the rapid economic growth of China and other emerging countries, accompanied by greater demand for proteins such as meat and milk, and a rapid increase in demand for grain to fatten livestock. The development of the global biofuels industry further increased demand for agricultural commodities and hence fertilisers. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation forecasts that global food demand will jump by 70 per cent between now and 2050 as the population rises by 3bn to more than 9bn, further boosting demand for fertiliser.
As a result, countries are starting to see potash much as they see crude oil: as a hunted, strategic commodity.
But, as with oil, potash deposits are not evenly spread. A handful of nations – led by Canada, Russia, Belarus and Israel – command the bulk of the reserves. Eight companies control more than 80 per cent of global supply. Two marketing groups – Canpotex for North American producers and BPC for the Russian and Belarusian groups – dominate the global trade.
The concentration of supplies is driving concern about a tight and politically charged market. "If BHP buys PotashCorp, is it the end of Chinese agriculture?" runs a breathless headline on the website of the China Business Journal. The accompanying article argues that Chinese control of the industry would boost the country's agriculture and "great causes" – but, if the miner bought the Canadian producer, it would gain control of the potash market and its pricing system.
Other countries are watching the battle closely, from India, the second-largest importer of the mineral; to Brazil, a key exporter of agricultural commodities that relies on overseas fertiliser supplies. But it is in China, where grain markets are managed closely to ensure farmers keep producing in sufficient quantities to feed the growing population, that concern seems greatest. Few countries take grain self-sufficiency quite so seriously – indeed, it was one of the promises on which the Communist party came to power in 1949.
Maintaining that promise depends in part on potash, the only fertiliser in which China is seriously deficient. The country, which feeds 20 per cent of the world's population using just 7 per cent of global arable land, has huge fertiliser needs.
China, while it produces a small amount of potash, has to import about half of its needs, a dependency that "may become a major threat to China's fast-developing national economy and long-term strategic needs", according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank that advises the government. Little surprise, then, that its primary importer of the mineral, Sinochem, says it is paying "close attention" to the PotashCorp battle, suggesting the group could launch a counterbid.
In contrast to the drive to make energy and metals acquisitions in Africa, Asia and elsewhere, the country's agricultural sector has historically stayed out of the global limelight. But as China struggles to meet its food sufficiency targets, and as fertiliser markets tighten, that is changing. The government has quietly encouraged state-owned agricultural companies to go abroad. Cofco, the grain trader, and Sinochem, the chemicals group, have been hunting for overseas agricultural deals, though with mixed success.
The bid for PotashCorp is a litmus test for how companies – and nations – view the prospect of a world with tighter food supplies. In the past century, anguish over who will feed the world has always been answered with breakthroughs that have more than compensated for growing populations.
But if a Chinese state-owned company should plant its flag on the potash industry, it could indicate the introduction of a more cut-throat edge to the geopolitics of agriculture.
Additional reporting by Eliot Gao
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