请接受我们的鞠躬,扎蒂•阿克塔•阿齐兹(Zeti Akhtar Aziz)。这位马来西亚央行(Bank Negara Malaysia)行长年初以来已经三次上调基准利率,被指责为过于"鹰派"。然而,她采取行动时,对美国、欧洲与日本央行的作为——或者更确切地说是不作为——几乎毫不在意。仅凭这一点,我们就应该为她鼓掌。
没有全球领袖发出的信号,阿齐兹的许多亚洲同行似乎都不愿意调整政策利率。花旗集团(Citigroup)的一项研究显示,部分亚洲国家仍按兵不动(中国、菲律宾和印度尼西亚),另一些国家和地区至少上调了一次政策利率(印度、韩国、台湾、泰国和马来西亚),但只有马来西亚央行采取了"先发制人"的行动。其三次加息行动(3月、5月和7月,每次上调25个基点)的时间点,都略早于基于所谓泰勒法则(Taylor rule)的利率设定模型。而亚洲其它所有央行的政策利率都要比该模型建议的适当利率水平略低,最多的要低50个基点。
以印度尼西亚央行(Bank Indonesia)为例。即便该行在定于今天召开的会议上宣布上调利率,也几乎为时已晚。由于拉尼娜(La Nina)现象的影响,通常会从7月延续至9月的旱季今年可能根本不会到来;果真如此,已经高企的粮食价格会被推得更高。而粮食价格在用于衡量通胀水平的一篮子商品中所占比重略高于三分之一。
韩国央行(Bank of Korea)也正在"退出"门槛上徘徊。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的计算,韩国目前的基准利率与中性利率相比存在1.75个百分点的偏差。这种较不发达市场正在引领全球紧缩周期的现象,自然会引发一定程度的谨慎情绪。但这些市场正是经济增长所在之处。是时候让它们独立行事了。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/管婧
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034460
Take a bow, Zeti Akhtar Aziz. The governor of the central bank of Malaysia has faced accusations of undue hawkishness for raising base interest rates three times since the beginning of the year. Yet she has acted almost without heed to the actions – or rather, inactions – of central bankers in the US, eurozone and Japan. For that alone, she should be applauded.
Many of her Asian peers have seemed reluctant to adjust policy settings in the absence of cues from the global leaders. Some are still on hold (China, the Philippines and Indonesia) and although others have lifted policy rates at least once (India, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Malaysia) only Bank Negara Malaysia has taken action "pre-emptively", according to a Citigroup study. Each of its three 25 basis-point increases – in March, May and July – were slightly ahead of a rate-setting model based on the so-called Taylor rule. The policy rates at all the other Asian central banks are up to 50bp lower than the model suggests is appropriate.
Take Bank Indonesia. If it lifts rates at the scheduled meeting today, the increase would not come a moment too soon. Thanks to La Niña, the usual June-September dry season may not happen at all; if so, already high prices for food – just over a third of the basket used for measuring inflation – would be pushed even higher.
The Bank of Korea, too, is hovering on the exit threshold, with a base rate 1.75 percentage points adrift of the neutral rate, by the reckoning of the International Monetary Fund. That less-developed markets are leading the global tightening cycle will naturally cause some circumspection. But this is where the growth is. High time they stood alone.
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