Lex专栏：假如中国房价跌六成 Chinese hothouse

 

这个想法堪称新颖：在房地产真的崩盘前，先以此为假想情景，对银行进行一次压力测试。6月份中国一线城市房地产价格几乎毫无变化，可是据报道，监管部门正要求各银行评估房价下跌60%的风险。

有些焦虑是应该的。住房私有制在中国才实行了30年，但中国房地产市场已经历过多轮牛市和熊市。新富阶层——以及一些钻空子投机人民币资产的外国人——蜂拥在繁荣发展的中国沿海城市购置房产。各城市几乎一夜间就冒出了无数新楼房，但有些一直空置着。假如措辞过于激动的当地媒体可信的话，这些空置楼房足以安置2亿人。

为此，当局出台了一系列旨在遏制房地产投机的调控措施，最新举措是在4月份上调二套房和三套房的首付比例。

与其它地区一样，银行承担着大风险。它们目前还在继续发放大量贷款。在北京听到了这样的传言：今年1.1万亿美元（约占经济产出的五分之一）的贷款额度可能会增加。四大银行对企业发放的贷款中，约十分之一流向房地产行业，这个比例还在继续扩大。但是，假如房地产崩盘，会给银行带来痛苦，受到影响的不限于那些向开发商发放的贷款，还包括购房按揭和整个建筑行业。北京面临的两难困境不亚于银行：打压房地产市场，必然损及经济增长。

以前的例子对北京有利。房价在调控下从2007年末起下跌了15%左右，直到去年开始反弹。假如现在再下跌同样的幅度，大致来讲，房价将重返2007年初的峰值水平。

政府希望通过运作大规模社会住房项目，维持建筑工人的就业。哎，具有资本主义特色的典型社会主义做法，对银行可没有太大帮助。那些有问题的政府项目，已经让他们暴露于可怕的风险——且不提承担更多风险。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/杨远

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033973

 

 

Here's a novel idea: stress test banks for a property collapse before it actually happens. Residential prices in China's top-tier cities barely blipped in June, but regulators are reportedly ordering banks to assess the risk of a 60 per cent slump.

Some fretting is justified. Home ownership in China is barely three decades old but the country has already had its share of booms and busts. Newly rich locals – as well as foreigners wriggling through loopholes to punt on renminbi-denominated assets – have rushed to buy in booming coastal cities. New buildings mushroom overnight, but some stay empty; enough to house 200m people, if overexcited local media are to be believed.

Hence the series of stop-go measures designed to keep a lid on speculation, such as higher deposit requirements for second and third homes, the latest of which were introduced in April.

As elsewhere, banks are on the hook. They are still extending copious amounts of fresh credit: the whisper around Beijing is that the current year's $1,100bn quota – about one-fifth of economic output – may be increased. About one-tenth (and growing) of the big four banks' corporate loans go to property. But a housing crash would cause banks pain beyond loans to developers: in mortgages and the broader construction industry. This is the dilemma for Beijing as much as banks: nix the property market and you slice into economic growth.

Precedent is on Beijing's side. It already engineered a price fall of about 15 per cent from late 2007, before last year's rally kicked off. A similar decline now would, roughly speaking, return prices to the earlier 2007 peak.

For its part, the government aims to keep construction workers on the job with big social housing programmes. Alas, what looks like classic socialism with capitalist characteristics is small comfort to the banks. They are already horribly exposed to questionable government projects without taking on more of the same.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033973/en