投资者对于“中国首只对冲基金”诞生的报道应当有所保留。收费结构类似于对冲基金的私人资金池存在已有多年,往往交易大宗商品期货或海外股票。但中国第二大资产管理公司易方达(E Fund)推出新基金仍具有重大意义。一个月前,证券监管机构宣布,将允许在注册资产管理公司持有的独立管理账户交易股指期货,如今,一家管理公司已获准进行这种操作。按照中国通常的情况,数日之内就应该有十多家类似基金获批。由此,中国国内机构可以开始小步涉足股票对冲和相对价值(世界上最流行的对冲基金交易策略)的天地。
在喜欢押注市场走向方面,没有几个股市堪与中国市场相比。在过去7年中的每一年,上证综指不是跻身于全球股指排名的前20%,就是落在后20%之列;今年迄今为止,上证综指在全球93个股市中排名第82。但在此前,一家保险公司或国有企业的养老基金若希望在大盘下跌时赚钱,就只能想方设法,投资于不在政府直接监督之下的小型私人基金。理论上,能够更方便地利用规模更大的持牌对冲基金,应当能改善许多机构的回报率。当大盘下跌时,手中没有头寸是件好事,但持有空头头寸则更好。
总体而言,中国股市仍是投机者的天下,他们更关心涨跌势头,而非价值。基金咨询公司咨奔商务咨询(Z-Ben)的数据显示,回报率持续最佳的基金,是那些善于把握时机、及时改持现金的基金。易方达将试图以更高的效率做到这一点。如果说上海股市仍是一个赌场,那么现在至少档次略高了一些。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/和风
Investors should take reports of the launch of “China’s first hedge fund” with a pinch of salt. Private pools of capital with hedgie-like fee structures have been around for ages, often trading commodities futures or offshore equities. But a new offering by E Fund, China’s second-largest asset manager, is significant nonetheless. A month after the securities regulator said it would allow separately managed accounts at registered asset management companies to trade stock index futures, a manager has been granted permission to do just that. As this is China, a dozen copycat funds should be licensed within days. Domestic institutions can therefore start tiptoeing into the realm of equity hedge and relative value: the world’s most popular hedge fund trading strategies.
Few stock markets lend themselves to directional punts quite like China’s. In each of the past seven years, the Shanghai Composite has finished in either the top or the bottom quintile of world equity index rankings; so far this year, it is 82nd of 93. But up to now, an insurer or the retirement fund of a state-owned enterprise that wanted to make money while the benchmark was sinking had to jump through hoops to invest in small private funds operating outside direct government supervision. In theory, easier access to bigger, licensed hedge funds should improve returns for many. Not holding assets when the price falls is good, but a short position is better.
Overall, the Chinese equity market remains ruled by speculators more concerned with momentum than value. Data from Z-Ben, a fund consultancy, shows that the best returns consistently accrue to funds that have been good at timing shifts into cash. The E Fund will try to do just that, more efficiently. If Shanghai is still a casino, it is now a slightly higher class one.
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