朝鲜官方通讯社的记者们通常专门研究那些列出去纺织厂和渔场访问的劳动党官员名字的冗长公告。
然而，从本周开始，这些沉闷的报到将会受到读者的异常期待，因为全球各地的专家都会查看这些报道，从中搜寻此前从未在官方媒体报道中出现过的一个名字：金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)。
金正恩是健康状况不佳的朝鲜独裁者金正日(Kim Jong-il)最小的儿子。外界普遍认为，在朝鲜执政党30年来召开的首次意义重大党代会上，金正恩将接受他的第一份官方职务。本次会议很有可能于本周召开。
金正恩无论获得哪个官职，实际上都将证实他会成为父亲的接班人。但关键问题在于，金正恩是会继承父亲的专制作风，还是会变成由几个将军控制的傀儡统治者——他们必须掌控的这个贫穷国家，在食品短缺和洪水频发的冲击下，已经是伤痕累累。
迄今为止的证据表明，据报道曾在瑞士留学的金正恩已在按照领袖的身份进行包装。一位游客去年拍到一幅将金正恩称为“年轻将军”的海报。来自朝鲜叛逃者的报道还称，孩子们已经学习了赞颂金正恩的歌曲。韩国间谍认为，金正恩已经承担着一个幕后职位，接受关键的情报档案。
朝鲜宣布，自1980年以来的首次党代会将于本月初举行。在上次党代会上，金正日接受了党内职务，成为其父亲金日成(Kim Il-sung)的指定接班人。
目前尚不清楚本月党代会召开的具体时间，但总部位于韩国、声称在朝鲜拥有信息来源的维权组织“好朋友”(Good Friends)表示，预计党代会将在朝鲜建国纪念日9月9日前结束。
上月，朝鲜官方媒体报道，中国国家主席胡锦涛祝愿朝鲜党代会取得“巨大成功”。
上月末，金正日访问了作为朝鲜经济生命线的中国，并与胡锦涛会晤。金正日在会晤中的讲话表明，他在为党代会中替换老一辈精英（包括许多80多岁的高级将领和官员）铺路。
金正日表示：“将传统友谊的接力棒交给下一代是我们的重要历史使命。”他还表示，“复杂的”国际形势威胁到了移交的顺利进行。
实际上，或许只有大约27岁的金正恩继承的可能是一盏“金杯毒酒”，因为自3月份韩国军舰沉没后，国际社会加大了对朝鲜的金融制裁力度，令该国深受影响。
韩国世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)高级研究员郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)表示：“即将召开的党代会打算为金正恩创建一个团队，由忠于他的200至250人左右的精英人士组成。”
郑相昌预计，金正恩既会承担党内的实权职务，例如组织部长，也会在军队任职，让他在朝鲜内部互相争权的两大阵营中都有利害关系。
然而，金正日的接班人或许不会马上就变得明朗起来。过去曾有过类似（但最终不准确）的猜测：金正恩的名字去年将出现在人民议会的选举名单上。
大多数分析师认同，金正日要到2012年才会公布接班人选。按照朝鲜政府的宣传，2012年是朝鲜成为“富裕强国”的转折点。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001034506
Reporters at North Korea’s state news agency usually specialise in tedious bulletins reciting the names of worker party officials who have paid visits to textile mills and fish farms.
From this week, however, these dreary dispatches will have unusually expectant readers as experts across the globe scour them for the mention of a name that has never before appeared in the official news media: Kim Jong-eun.
The youngest son of Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s ailing dictator, is widely expected to receive his first official job at the first significant congress of the ruling party for three decades, most likely to be convened this week.
A mention of Kim Jong-eun in any official capacity would effectively confirm him as his father’s successor. The key question, though, is whether he inherits his father’s autocratic mantle, or simply becomes the puppet ruler for a cabal of generals who must steer a poor nation wracked by food shortages and regular floods.
The evidence so far suggests Jong-eun, who reportedly was educated in Switzerland, is already being styled for leadership. A tourist last year photographed a poster that named him as the “Young General”. Reports from defectors also say children have learnt songs that praise him. And South Korean spies believe he already has a backstage role and receives key intelligence dossiers.
North Korea has announced that the first party congress since 1980 will be held early this month. At the last congress, Kim Jong-il received the party titles that anointed him as heir apparent to his father, Kim Il-sung.
The exact timing of this month’s congress is unclear but Good Friends, a South Korea-based activist group that claims sources in North Korea, said that it expected the summit to be concluded by September 9, the anniversary of the nation’s foundation.
North Korean state media last month quoted Hu Jintao, China’s president, wishing that the party summit would be a “signal success”.
Kim Jong-il travelled late last month to China, his economic lifeline, and met Mr Hu. The language of his meetings suggested Mr Kim was laying the ground for a congress to refresh Pyongyang’s geriatric elite, which includes many senior commanders and officials in their 80s.
“It is our important historical mission to hand over to the rising generation the baton of the traditional friendship,” Mr Kim said, adding that such a smooth handover was threatened by a “complicated” international situation.
Indeed, Jong-eun, who is probably only about 27 years old, may inherit a poisoned chalice as international financial sanctions, tightened since the sinking of a South Korean warship in March, bite hard.
“The upcoming congress aims to build a team for Kim Jong-eun. An elite of some 200 to 250 people will be composed of those loyal to him,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at South Korea’s Sejong Institute.
Mr Cheong expects Kim Jong-eun to take both a powerful party role such as an organisational secretary and a military post, which would give him a stake in the two camps that are believed to compete for power within North Korea.
Still, the succession may not become immediately clear. There was similar – but ultimately incorrect – speculation that Kim Jong-eun’s name would emerge last year in elections for the people’s assembly.
Most analysts agree that Kim Jong-il has until 2012 to unveil his successor. In Pyongyang’s propaganda, this date is styled as a turning point when the country will become a “mighty and prosperous nation”.
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