中国国务院昨日就通胀风险发出警告，并誓言遏制快速上涨的住房价格。最新数据显示，中国房价正继续加快上涨。
国务院在昨晚发布的声明中表示，部分城市房地产价格大幅上涨，已成为一个"突出"的问题。昨日早些时候发布的政府数据显示，3月份中国大中城市房价同比上涨11.7%，高于前一个月10.7%的同比涨幅，并且是近五年前开始编制该指数以来的最大涨幅。
国务院发出通胀警告之际，预计今日公布的数据将显示，中国经济在今年首季度增长近12%，达到三年来的最快增速，并突显出一个风险，即中国摆脱全球经济危机之后的强劲复苏可能最终发展成过热。国务院表示："一些推动价格上涨的因素在显现，强化了通胀预期。"
如果第一季度中国国内生产总值(GDP)数据像预期的那样强劲，那将使中国当局再度面临压力，要求其开始让人民币升值，并采取其它收紧措施，如提高利率。
国务院在上述声明中，并未重复以往有关中国经济回升基础还不够稳固的说法。这份声明的语气似乎表明，新的收紧措施可能正在酝酿中。"一系列信号显示，过热的风险远远大于双底衰退的风险，"中金公司(CICC)经济学家哈继铭表示。
据路透社(Reuters)昨晚报道，中国经济今年首季度将同比增长11.9%，而经济学家们普遍预测的增幅为11.7%。今年头几个月的数据得到一些不寻常因素的提振，包括比较基数较低，因为去年第一季度中国经济陷入低迷；还有就是政府刺激措施直到去年4、5月份才开始发挥作用。
中国经济的反弹在一定程度上得到房地产行业的推动。不少城市的住房及土地市场大幅涨价，导致一些分析师发出泡沫警告。
中国国家统计局(NBS)昨日发布的数据似乎表明，住房需求有所降温，一季度全国商品房销售面积35.8%的同比增幅，低于去年末季度50%的同比增幅。 不过，咨询公司搜房网(Soufun)发布的另一批数据显示，住房销售在3月份再次飙升，环比增长90%，此前该环比数据在2月份和1月份分别下降49%和46%。
搜房网分析师何帆表示，3月份的增长在一定程度上反映出1、2月份是住房市场淡季。但他补充说，买家正回到楼市中，因为人们对房价将进一步上涨的预期仍很强劲。"我认为4月的销售将继续增长，"他表示。
尽管经济增长加速，而住房价格不断上涨，但中国官员近期对通胀和过热风险的评论似乎比较松缓，部分原因是银行放贷在过去一个月已经大幅放缓。中国国家发改委(NDRC)官员徐连仲本周一表示，利率在短期内无需上调，因为通胀压力正在减轻。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032208
China's State Council warned yesterday about the risks of inflation and pledged to curb rapid increases in housing costs as new figures showed that property prices were continuing to accelerate.
In a statement released last night, the State Council said that the dramatic increase in property values in some cities had become a "prominent problem" after government figures released earlier in the day showed urban housing prices in March rose 11.7 per cent during the previous 12 months, up from 10.7 per cent the month before and the biggest increase since the index began nearly five years ago.
The warning came ahead of the expected announcement today that the Chinese economy grew by close to 12 per cent in the first quarter of the year, the fastest rate in three years and underlining the risk that China's robust recovery from the global crisis could end in overheating. "Some factors that are pushing up prices have appeared, strengthening inflationary expectations," the State Council said.
If the gross domestic product data for the first quarter are as strong as expected, it will renew pressure on the Chinese authorities to begin to allow its currency to appreciate and to take other tightening measures such as raising interest rates.
The tone of the State Council statement, which dropped previous language about the economy not yet having achieved a solid footing, suggested that new tightening measures could be afoot. "An array of signals indicates that the risk of overheating is much larger than that of a second dip," says Ha Jiming, an economist at China International Capital Corporation.
Reuters reported last night the economy grew by 11.9 per cent in the first quarter, while economists are forecasting a rise of 11.7 per cent. The figures for the first few months of this year are flattered in part by the base of comparison, given the Chinese economy slumped in the first quarter of last year and the government's stimulus measures did not start to kick in until April and May.
The rebound in the economy has been partly driven by the property sector amid sharp price increases in housing and land markets in a number of cities, causing some analysts to warn of a bubble.
The figures released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics suggested some cooling in demand for housing, with the 35.8 per cent on-year increase in sales in the first quarter down from the 50 per cent rate seen at the end of last year. However, separate figures prepared by consultancy Soufun indicated housing sales surged again in March by 90 per cent from the previous month, having fallen by 49 per cent in February and by 46 per cent in January from the month before.
He Fan, analyst at Soufun, said the rise in March sales partly reflected the fact that January and February are slow months in the housing market. But he added that buyers were returning because expectations of further price rises remained strong. "I think that sales in April will continue to increase," he said.
In spite of accelerating growth and rising housing prices, officials recently have sounded more relaxed about the risks of inflation and overheating, in part because the pace of lending by banks has slowed sharply during the last month. Xu Lianzhong, an official at the National Development and Reform Commission, said on Monday that interest rates would not need to rise in the short-term, as inflationary pressures were easing.
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