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期以来，人们对中国经济过热的风险一直存在一种若隐若现的担忧，2010年一季度的经济数据让这种担忧终于表面化。数据公布后，最高政府机构国务院很快出台比预期更强硬的措施来抑制房地产投机。这些最新措施打压了房地产开发商及相关企业的股价，并让人们看到中国在刺激政策的推动下出现世界最强劲的复苏过后，政府对这种复苏的后果存在着一种怎样的担心。在连续几次并非全心全意地尝试处理房价问题过后，北京这次动了真格。国务院上周出台多种措施，包括提高二套住房最低首付比例，提高部分首套房首付等。本周的消息说，物业税首批试点已经获批。高端、一线城市房地产市场有可能正在开始进行一次调整。投机性房产会出现一定程度的抛售，未来几个月市场也很有可能弥漫一丝恐慌情绪。
其结果会不会是中国经济硬着陆、全世界的需求遭遇一次负面冲击？
我认为当局出台的措施会改变房地产市场的情绪，但楼市的高烧要过几个月才会减退。北京将竭尽全力证明，高端房地产之退，将有低端房地产之进来弥补。至于整体上的经济增长，中国最多也只会出现软着陆。
一个主要原因在于，中国经济增长的结构（决定了它）不易遭遇一次扩大化的整体调整。3月份经济数据显示的增长率并没有突然大幅上升，相比过去只属于一种正常水平。国内生产总值(GDP)一季度增幅中的构成分别是：消费占52%（在整个11.9%的增幅中占6.2个百分点），资本形成占57.9%（6.9个百分点），外贸占-9.9%（-1.2个百分点）。让我们研究一下这三个GDP支出构成各自的前景。
楼市新政最终将开始为投资增长降温，但这需要一定的时间才会生效，并且多数拟建在建项目不会因此而停工。对一、二线城市泡沫性住房开发的约束，将有助于把投资维持在一个可控的水平，并释放出资金用于其他投资活动──这些投资活动的需求是很大的。
中国仍存在大量贷款带来的投资行为：1月份新增贷款规模达到2009年月度高位水平，之后的2、3两月有所减缓。但如果仅看中长期贷款，而忽略应收帐款短期融资的话，2010年新增贷款并未放缓，而是仍在增长。私人自有资金投资正在逐渐回归，外国投资及香港、台湾投资也呈现同样趋势。因而投资行为正在扩大。私人领域投资正以30%的速度增长，而制造业增速为26%。
消费对经济增长的贡献超过自1993年以来的任何年份。不幸的是，我们不知道一个季度中家庭消费与政府消费的细分数字，因而就不能确定地排除政府的周期性支持措施所起的作用。但受收入增长支持，消费信心持高并不断增长：中国城镇可支配收入年比增幅达10%，而消费支出增幅为11%，表明了消费（而非储蓄）意愿的增长。值得注意的是，高档汽车、家庭装修及家具等开支有所下滑，而化妆品、服装及电子产品等用途更广的消费品的支出增长较为可观。换言之，房市出现调整不会影响零售业。
从贸易看，中国3月份出现自2004年4月以来的首次贸易赤字。商务部官员称，今年净出口额将滑落到1000亿美元。而在2008及2009年净出口额分别约为3000亿及2000亿美元。但这种情形实际上不太可能发生，除非美欧经济出现痛苦的双底衰退。如果今年美欧经济增长分别为4.5%及2%，则中国2010年将重现贸易余额增长。贸易对经济增长的负作用已有所缓和，而且今年对经济增长的贡献将比去年大得多。
这种观点的底线是虽然住宅房地产市场已开始调整，但中国今年的GDP增幅不会低于8.5%。这假定净出口额保持在约2000亿美元水平，而非欧美经济出现双底衰退导致的净出口额缩减一半。
当然，可能会削弱这种观点的因素是中国国内通胀状况的发展。中国3月份CPI已达2.4%。如果消费者物价指数(CPI)回升，则将迫使政府不得不采取进一步的措施，并容易导致更令人担忧的回调。
（编者按：Daniel H. Rosen是专注中国问题的顾问机构Rhodium Group的负责人，也是彼特森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)访问学者、哥伦比亚大学客座副教授。）
（更新完成）
Daniel H. Rosen
China's economic data for the first quarter of 2010 brought long-simmering worries about overheating to a boil, and was quickly followed by tougher-than-expected measures to restrain property speculation from the State Council, the nation's highest government body. The latest measures drove down shares in real estate developers and related companies, and crystallized fears about the aftermath to the strongest stimulus-led recovery in the world.
After a slew of half-hearted attempts to address property prices, Beijing is doing it for real this time. Last week the State Council announced measures including higher minimum down-payments for second homes and higher deposits for first home purchases, and this week the first trial of property taxes was reportedly authorized. We are likely at the beginning of a correction in upper-end, first-tier city real estate. There will be some dumping of speculative property, and there could well be a hint of panic in the air over the coming months.
Is a hard landing in China - and thus a negative demand shock for the whole world - going to be the result?
I think the authorities will win the battle for sentiment in the property market, but it will take some months for the nausea to subside. Beijing will pull out all the stops to show that what is taken out of high-end property will be made-up at the lower-end real estate. And in terms of overall economic growth, China is looking at a soft-ish landing at worst.
A major reason is that the structure of China's growth is not fragile or prone to a spreading, broader correction. The economic data for March did not show a strong spike, just the same growth that has been on track all along. The composition of growth in gross domestic product in the first quarter was: consumption 52% (or 6.2 percentage points of the overall 11.9% growth rate), capital formation 57.9%, (6.9 percentage points of growth), and trade -9.9% (which subtracted 1.2 percentage points from growth). Let's consider the outlook for each of these three GDP expenditure components.
Property policies will finally start to detoxify investment growth rates, but this will take time to effect and will not stop most projects in the pipeline. Discipline on frothy residential development in tier one and tier two cities will help to sustain investment at a manageable level, and frees up capital for other investment activities - for which there is plenty of demand.
And there is still plenty of credit fueling investment activity in China: after January, when net new lending was as large as the big months of 2009, February and March lending moderated. But if we just look at medium and long-term lending, and leave aside short-term financing against receivables, new credit is not slowing in 2010, it is still increasing. Private investment of own money is slowly coming back, as are foreign investors and those from Hong Kong and Taiwan. So investment activity is broadening. Service sector investment is growing at 30%; manufacturing 26%.
Consumption is now contributing more to growth than in any annual performance since 1993. Unfortunately, there is no way to tease apart household consumption from government consumption growth on a quarterly basis, so we can't be sure that this is not just a cyclical effort by government to be supportive. But consumer confidence is high and rising, supported by income growth: disposable income is up 10% year on year in urban China, and consumption expenditure is up 11% - showing a slight increase in propensity to consume rather than save. Notably, growth in big-ticket autos, household renovation and furnishings are coming down to earth, while the broader basket of consumer goods from cosmetics to clothing and electronics are stepping up handsomely. A housing correction will not take the wind out of retail sales, in other words.
On the trade side, China ran a trade deficit in March for the first time since April 2004. And Commerce Ministry officials have said that net exports would fall to a mere $100 billion this year (from around $300 billion in 2008 and $200 billion in 2009). However, this is unlikely to actually happen unless the U.S. and E.U. experience a painful double dip this year. If U.S. and E.U. grow at 4.5% and 2% respectively this year, then China will move back to a growing trade balance for 2010. The negative trade contribution to growth is already somewhat moderated, and trade will surely contribute much more to China's growth this year than last year.
The bottom line is that a correction in residential property is starting but China is not looking at a pullback in GDP growth to below 8.5% this year. This assumes that the trade surplus holds up at around $200 billion, rather than contracting by half as a result of a double dip in the US and Europe.
Of course, the development that could undermine this point of view is domestic inflation. If CPI inflation, which came out at 2.4% in March, were to resume an upward spiral, that would force additional steps that could easily trigger a more alarming pullback.
(Daniel H. Rosen is the principal of Rhodium Group, an advisory firm focusing on China, and is also a visiting fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University.)
China's economic data for the first quarter of 2010 brought long-simmering worries about overheating to a boil, and was quickly followed by tougher-than-expected measures to restrain property speculation from the State Council, the nation's highest government body. The latest measures drove down shares in real estate developers and related companies, and crystallized fears about the aftermath to the strongest stimulus-led recovery in the world.
After a slew of half-hearted attempts to address property prices, Beijing is doing it for real this time. Last week the State Council announced measures including higher minimum down-payments for second homes and higher deposits for first home purchases, and this week the first trial of property taxes was reportedly authorized. We are likely at the beginning of a correction in upper-end, first-tier city real estate. There will be some dumping of speculative property, and there could well be a hint of panic in the air over the coming months.
Is a hard landing in China - and thus a negative demand shock for the whole world - going to be the result?
I think the authorities will win the battle for sentiment in the property market, but it will take some months for the nausea to subside. Beijing will pull out all the stops to show that what is taken out of high-end property will be made-up at the lower-end real estate. And in terms of overall economic growth, China is looking at a soft-ish landing at worst.
A major reason is that the structure of China's growth is not fragile or prone to a spreading, broader correction. The economic data for March did not show a strong spike, just the same growth that has been on track all along. The composition of growth in gross domestic product in the first quarter was: consumption 52% (or 6.2 percentage points of the overall 11.9% growth rate), capital formation 57.9%, (6.9 percentage points of growth), and trade -9.9% (which subtracted 1.2 percentage points from growth). Let's consider the outlook for each of these three GDP expenditure components.
Property policies will finally start to detoxify investment growth rates, but this will take time to effect and will not stop most projects in the pipeline. Discipline on frothy residential development in tier one and tier two cities will help to sustain investment at a manageable level, and frees up capital for other investment activities - for which there is plenty of demand.
And there is still plenty of credit fueling investment activity in China: after January, when net new lending was as large as the big months of 2009, February and March lending moderated. But if we just look at medium and long-term lending, and leave aside short-term financing against receivables, new credit is not slowing in 2010, it is still increasing. Private investment of own money is slowly coming back, as are foreign investors and those from Hong Kong and Taiwan. So investment activity is broadening. Service sector investment is growing at 30%; manufacturing 26%.
Consumption is now contributing more to growth than in any annual performance since 1993. Unfortunately, there is no way to tease apart household consumption from government consumption growth on a quarterly basis, so we can't be sure that this is not just a cyclical effort by government to be supportive. But consumer confidence is high and rising, supported by income growth: disposable income is up 10% year on year in urban China, and consumption expenditure is up 11% - showing a slight increase in propensity to consume rather than save. Notably, growth in big-ticket autos, household renovation and furnishings are coming down to earth, while the broader basket of consumer goods from cosmetics to clothing and electronics are stepping up handsomely. A housing correction will not take the wind out of retail sales, in other words.
On the trade side, China ran a trade deficit in March for the first time since April 2004. And Commerce Ministry officials have said that net exports would fall to a mere $100 billion this year (from around $300 billion in 2008 and $200 billion in 2009). However, this is unlikely to actually happen unless the U.S. and E.U. experience a painful double dip this year. If U.S. and E.U. grow at 4.5% and 2% respectively this year, then China will move back to a growing trade balance for 2010. The negative trade contribution to growth is already somewhat moderated, and trade will surely contribute much more to China's growth this year than last year.
The bottom line is that a correction in residential property is starting but China is not looking at a pullback in GDP growth to below 8.5% this year. This assumes that the trade surplus holds up at around $200 billion, rather than contracting by half as a result of a double dip in the US and Europe.
Of course, the development that could undermine this point of view is domestic inflation. If CPI inflation, which came out at 2.4% in March, were to resume an upward spiral, that would force additional steps that could easily trigger a more alarming pullback.
(Daniel H. Rosen is the principal of Rhodium Group, an advisory firm focusing on China, and is also a visiting fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University.)
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