1994年初，国际能源机构(IEA)发布了一项统计数字。这个数字当时没有引起多少注意，但几年后改变了石油市场和全球经济。这个西方世界的能源监督机构当时表示：“自本世纪60年代以来，中国首次在年度基础上成为石油净进口国。”
随着旺盛的能源需求推动中国不断扩大石油进口，如今已是仅次于美国的全球第二大石油进口国，中国成为石油净进口国的影响变得显而易见。中国需求推动原油价格在2008年创下每桶近150美元的历史最高纪录。1993年，中国日均石油进口量仅3万桶，与爱尔兰目前的进口量相当。如今，中国日进口石油500万桶，相当于科威特和委内瑞拉两国产量之和。
1993年：石油的“中国时刻”
大宗商品分析师和行业高管表示，1993年的转折属于一个“中国时刻”(China moment)。所谓中国时刻，是指在某个时点上，这个全球人口最多的国家从某种资源的出口国转变为净进口国（就制成品而言则是相反方向的转变）。
价格所受的影响在当时往往并不明显。但随着时间推移，随着中国的进口需求越来越大，价格一般都会大幅飙升。石油和大豆等大宗商品都经历过这种情形。以中国的地质及农业资源条件，国内产量满足不了本国的需求。
现在轮到煤炭了。去年，自存在可靠记录以来，中国首度成为煤炭净进口国。包括用于发电的动力煤(thermal coal)和用于炼钢的炼焦煤(coking coal)，中国去年进口煤炭1.04亿吨。而在2003年，中国净出口煤炭多达8000万吨。
这一变化有助于煤炭行业复苏。煤炭几十年来在发达国家一直遭到边缘化。如今，在亚洲地区，不但日本、韩国和台湾等地在大量进口煤炭，中国和印度的需求也正为煤炭行业带来动力。需求上升之快出乎许多人的意料，以致该行业不能以最佳状态来应付。煤炭出口国的许多瓶颈问题将限制其交付能力。虽说假以时日这些问题有望得到解决，但中国等国家给煤炭行业带来的根本变化将持续一段较长的时期。
矿业一直在等待这个新的“中国时刻”来临，以期从价格上涨中获利。在采访中，矿业高管、咨询师、分析师和交易员等纷纷表示，中国今后需要从海外购买大量炼焦煤，可能也会大量购买动力煤。
“中国转向煤炭进口的趋势将会持续”
全球最大矿商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)的首席执行官高瑞思(Marius Kloppers)表示，他记得近十年前，必和必拓派了一些高管前往中国煤矿考察，研判中国煤炭需求何时可能超出本土供应。他表示：“我们一直在等待这个时刻来临。虽然我们不确定2010年会不会重演2009年的情形，但我们预计，中国转向煤炭进口的趋势将会持续。”
中国转变为煤炭净进口国将对整个行业，以及各种碳减排措施产生广泛影响。
在本十年中期前后，煤炭海运市场年交易量预计将达到10亿吨，而上世纪70年代初，该市场年交易量不到5000万吨。这对全球最大的煤炭出口商斯特拉塔(Xstrata)、印尼的PT Bumi Resources、英美资源集团(Anglo American)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等矿商来说是好兆头。一场争夺煤矿以满足中国需求的角逐已经开始。香港大宗商品交易商来宝集团(Noble Group)和美国矿商皮博迪能源(Peabody Energy)正为控制澳大利亚矿商Macarthur Coal而角力。全球贸易商也有望得益。在获利于中国需求方面，全球最大的大宗商品交易商和最大的煤炭交易商嘉能可(Glencore)独具优势。
煤炭价格已经受到显著影响，尽管全球经济危机在一定程度上削弱了这种影响。澳洲动力煤价格（业内基准价格之一）今年已飙升至每吨100美元以上。矿商们已与日本公用事业企业签订2010-11年度合约，将以每吨98美元向它们供应动力煤，比上年提价40%。在炼焦煤方面，矿商们和钢铁生产商已敲定4-6月季度的价格为每吨200美元，这是自实行季度合约以来第二高的价格。
运煤船往往要等待数周才能装货
然而，在前景一片大好的形势下，全球各大煤炭港口却因投资不足而面临铁路和船舶瓶颈。南非Richards Bay以及澳大利亚的Dalrymple Bay、Hay Point、Gladstone和Newcastle等煤炭码头都存在瓶颈，往往迫使船舶等待数周才能装货。即使煤矿扩大产能，出口设施也将阻碍他们扩大在海外销量。
巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的Yingxi Yu表示，近几个月来，澳大利亚的煤炭出口码头接连出事，“突显这个捉襟见肘的体系在多年投资不足、而需求强劲形势下的脆弱”。
就中国自身来说，温家宝总理表示，需要的话，今年中国将继续进口煤炭。中国媒体援引温家宝的话说：“缓解煤炭供需紧张状况……对于调节经济运行至关重要。”为了保存国内煤炭储量，中国似乎有意加大对进口的依赖。中国煤炭储量仍为全球第三大，仅次于美国和俄罗斯。
去年中国净进口煤炭1.04亿吨，与大约33亿吨的中国煤炭产量相比不算多。中国是全球最大煤炭生产国。中国转变为煤炭净进口国，与当局取缔非法和不安全煤矿有一定关系。当局此举已导致数百家小煤矿关闭。此外，由政府支持的、在产煤大省山西开展的行业整合行动，也限制了产量。
另一个产煤大省河南也在开展行业整合行动。山东和内蒙古预计也将效仿，以求提高效率。美国能源部(Department of Energy)表示，中国最大三家煤炭企业的产量占全国总产量的比例不到15%，并指出：“中国有数万家地方小煤矿，这些煤矿管理效率低下、投资不足、设备过时，安全纪录不佳，导致煤炭资源得不到充分利用。”
中国也希望通过整合，提高安全和环境绩效，并逐步提高产量。但国际上不少业内人士认为，中国在煤炭方面不太可能恢复自给自足的状态。花旗集团(Citigroup)的乔春•布林克斯马(Jogchum Brinksma)表示，为了获得煤炭，中国现在“向外走得越来越远”。“他们先是从澳大利亚和印尼购买，最近开始从哥伦比亚这么远的地方进口了。”
煤炭是亚洲的“未来燃料”
不过，中国不是推动煤炭需求增长的唯一源头。印度巨大且不断上升的需求同样关键。实际上，“中印度”(Chindia)正在改写这个行业。由矿商、交易商和公用事业企业共同拥有的交易平台GlobalCoal的首席执行官尤恩•康宁汉(Eoghan Cunningham)表示：“煤炭是亚洲的未来燃料。”
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)煤炭行业分析师以马内利•法吉斯(Emmanuel Fages)预测，本十年结束前，印度将超过韩国，成为全球第二大煤炭购买国。印度煤炭需求增长，是受到该国不断扩大燃煤发电装机容量的推动。根据世界银行(World Bank)的数据，印度有40%的家庭还没有用上电。该国当局把煤炭看作一个“减轻赤贫”的工具，用以在全国普及电力供应。
韩国和台湾的增长也可能为市场带来支持，这两个经济体正从使用原油转向使用煤炭。与此同时，越南已经表示，随着快速城市化和工业化推动煤炭需求增加，该国在3-5年内可能成为煤炭净进口国。越南目前是一个中等规模的煤炭出口国。越南国家煤炭矿业工业集团(Vinacomin)总经理陈春和(Tran Xuan Hoa)表示，到2020年，越南每年可能需要进口1亿吨煤。
中印增加使用煤炭给碳减排带来问号
西方国家是什么情况呢？人们认为，当前欧洲、日本和美国煤炭市场疲软，可能只是经济衰退造成的暂时影响；公用事业单位、水泥企业和钢铁生产商今年都将大量购买煤炭。不过，从长远来看，为了抑制全球碳排放，发达国家正在减少对煤炭的使用。中印等发展中国家煤炭消耗量增加，给这一努力带来了问号，尤其是因为许多新建燃煤电站将在今后三、四十年期间一直消耗这种大宗商品。
满足新增需求的担子将落在印尼身上。印尼是全球第二大煤炭出口国，其港口问题不像澳大利亚和南非那么严峻。印尼煤炭行业也存在自身问题，最突出的是质量不断下降。不过，在短期内，分析师预计该国供应将保持强劲增长。供应增长趋势至少有望维持到2015年。与此同时，印尼本国煤炭需求也会增长，从而降低可用于出口的数量。
不过，与中印重要性不断上升这一点比起来，所有其它因素——从供应瓶颈到其它国家需求增长——都相形见绌。正如国际能源机构在最新的年度《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中指出的：“随着中国从煤炭净出口国向净进口国转变，中国在世界煤炭市场上预期仍将具有主导影响。”
国际能源机构这次不仅认识到“中国时刻”的重要性，还进一步指出，到2030年，中印两国将消耗全球三分之二的煤炭。在1980年，两国煤炭消耗量仅占全球产量的五分之一，目前这一比例已升至二分之一左右。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032244
In early 1994, the International Energy Agency released a statistic that attracted little attention but years later would transform oil markets and the global economy. China, the west's energy watchdog said at the time, had just become “a net importer of oil on an annual basis for the first time since the 1960s”.
The consequences became obvious as China's voracious energy needs propelled the country towards its current ranking as the world's second-largest oil importer, behind only the US – in the process pushing crude prices to a record high of nearly $150 a barrel in 2008. Beijing, which in 1993 imported a mere 30,000 barrels a day, about as much as Ireland does now, is these days buying 5m barrels a day – or the combined production of Kuwait and Venezuela.
Commodities analysts and executives say the shift in 1993 was an example of a “China moment” – what happens when the world's most populous country moves from being an exporter to a net importer of a particular resource (or vice versa in the case of finished goods).
The impact on prices is often not immediately clear. But over time, as the country's import needs grow larger and larger, prices generally rocket. It happened with oil and other commodities including soyabeans, as demand in China proved too much for its own geological or agricultural endowments.
Now it is the turn of coal. Last year, China became a net importer of coal on an annual basis for the first time since reliable records have existed. Including both thermal coal, used to fire power plants, and coking coal, used for steelmaking, Beijing bought 104m tonnes of the commodity, compared with net exports of as much as 80m tonnes in 2003.
The shift is helping to revive the coal industry. After decades of being marginalised in the developed world, coal is being buoyed by the requirements of China and India on top of already huge imports elsewhere in Asia, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The speed of the upturn in demand has surprised many and the industry is not best placed to cope. Bottlenecks in exporting countries will hamper its ability to deliver. But while those may be resolved over time, the fundamental change wrought by China and others will be with us for longer.
The mining industry has being awaiting this new “China moment” to profit from a rise in prices. In interviews, mining executives, consultants, analysts and traders say China will need to buy significant amounts of coking coal from overseas from now on and probably also thermal coal.
Marius Kloppers, chief executive at BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, says he recalls how the company almost a decade ago sent executives to Chinese coal mines to gauge when demand there was likely to overwhelm indigenous supplies. “We have been waiting for this moment to happen,” he says. “While we are not sure that 2010 will be an exact repeat of 2009, we do expect the trend towards imports in this product to continue.”
The effects, on the industry but also on moves to curb carbon emissions, will be widespread.
Traded volumes on the seaborne coal market are set to reach 1bn tonnes a year about the middle of this decade, a remarkable growth from less than 50m tonnes in the early 1970s. This bodes well for miners such as Xstrata, the world's largest coal exporter, PT Bumi Resources of Indonesia, Anglo American and Rio Tinto. The battle to secure mines to supply China has already begun, with Hong Kong-based trader Noble Group fighting Peabody Energy, the US-based miner, for control of Macarthur Coal, the Australian miner. Global trading houses are also likely to benefit. Glencore, both the world's largest commodities trader and the largest coal trader, is particularly well positioned to cash in on China's needs.
The impact on prices has already been significant, even if muted by the global economic crisis. Thermal coal in Australia, an industry benchmark, surged this year to above $100 a tonne, and miners have concluded contracts for the year 2010-11 to supply Japanese utilities at $98 a tonne, up 40 per cent from last year. In coking coal, miners and steelmakers have closed contracts for April-June at $200 a tonne, the second-highest level yet for quarterly arrangements.
Amid these promising prospects, however, a lack of investment has left the world's largest coal ports suffering from rail and ship bottlenecks. Richards Bay in South Africa and the Australian coal terminals at Dalrymple Bay, Hay Point, Gladstone and Newcastle endure constraints that force vessels to wait weeks before they are able to load their cargo. Even if the miners expand their production, the export facilities will hamper them in selling more overseas.
Yingxi Yu of Barclays Capital says the Australian coal export terminals have faced one mishap after another in recent months, “highlighting the fragility of a system stretched thin by strong demand against years of underinvestment”.
For China's own part, premier Wen Jiabao said this year it would continue to import coal as needed. “Easing demand and supply strains on coal . . . is crucial to making adjustments to the operation of the economy,” he was quoted by local media as saying. Beijing appears inclined to rely more on imports in order to conserve domestic coal reserves, which are still the world's third largest after those of the US and Russia.
Last year's 104m tonnes of imports pale in comparison to the amount of coal China mines locally, which at about 3.3bn tonnes is the biggest annual output of any nation. Beijing's shift to net imports reflects in part a clampdown on illegal and unsafe mining, which has forced the closure of hundreds of small mines. A government-backed drive to consolidate the industry in Shanxi province, home of China's most easily accessible reserves, has also restricted production.
The consolidation drive is moving to Henan, another big producing province. Shandong and Inner Mongolia are expected to follow, in an attempt to improve efficiency. The US Department of Energy says the three biggest Chinese coal companies produce less than 15 per cent of the domestic total, adding: “China has tens of thousands of small local coal mines where inefficient management, insufficient investment, outdated equipment and poor safety records prevent the full utilisation of coal resources.”
By consolidating, Beijing also wants to improve safety and environmental performance and, over time, raise output. But China is unlikely to return to self-sufficiency, many in the global industry believe. As a result, says Jogchum Brinksma at Citigroup, Beijing is “reaching further and further afield” to secure coal. “First they bought from Australia and Indonesia, and lately China is importing coal from as far as Colombia.”
Yet China is not the only force driving increased demand. India's huge and rising coal needs are just as critical. In effect, “Chindia” is redescribing the industry. “Coal is the fuel of the future for Asia,” says Eoghan Cunningham, chief executive of GlobalCoal, a trading platform owned by miners, traders and utilities.
Emmanuel Fages, a coal analyst at Société Générale, forecasts that India will overtake South Korea as the world's second-largest buyer before the end of the decade. The increase in demand comes as New Delhi continues to expand its coal-fired power generation capacity. According to the World Bank, 40 per cent of homes in India are still without electricity. The country's authorities see coal as a “poverty alleviation” tool to spread electricity across the country.
The growth of South Korea and Taiwan is also likely to support the market as those centres switch from crude oil. At the same time Vietnam, a medium-sized exporter, has signalled that it might become an importer in three to five years as rapid urbanisation and industrialisation increase coal needs. Tran Xuan Hoa, general director of Vinacomin, the Vietnamese state-owned coal company, says the country might need to import 100m tonnes annually by 2020.
What of the west? The current weakness in Europe, Japan and the US is thought likely to prove a temporary consequence of recession; utilities, cement companies and steelmakers are set to buy large amounts this year, although in the longer term developed countries are moving away from coal in a bid to curb global carbon emissions. The rise in coal consumption in developing countries, particularly China and India, poses questions about this endeavour, in particular because the new coal-fired power stations will be consuming the commodity for the next 30 to 40 years.
The onus to meet the extra demand will fall on Indonesia, the world's second-largest coal exporter, which has port problems less acute than those of Australia and South Africa. Jakarta's coal industry has its own problems, particularly falling quality. But in the short term, analysts forecast strong supply growth. The ramp-up is likely to continue until at least 2015, but at the same time the country's domestic needs will increase too, reducing the exportable surplus.
Still, all the factors, from supply bottlenecks to other countries' increased demand, are dwarfed by the rapidly growing importance of China and to a lesser extent India. As the IEA's latest annual World Energy Outlook puts it: “China is expected to remain a dominant influence on the world coal market as it swings from being a net coal exporter into a net importer.”
Not only has the agency this time recognised the significance of the “China moment”; it also adds that China and India, which in 1980 consumed just one-fifth of the world's coal output and now take about half, will be devouring two-thirds of it by 2030.
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