放眼新兴世界的几乎任何地区，你都会发现，实际汇率在过去12个月内都迅速攀升。巴西雷亚尔升值27%，俄罗斯卢布升值14%，跟踪10种亚洲最活跃新兴国家货币的彭博-摩根大通亚洲美元指数(Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar index)，目前处于19个月高点。
原因是新兴市场中涌动的"资本热潮"——一定程度上，这是受到发达国家极低的利率水平和其它地区利率不断上升的推动。
但还有另一个原因：市场对新兴经济体与发达经济体的信誉度和前景作了根本性重估。这给新兴经济体带来的后果，可能是资本过剩、随之而来的对本币汇率高估的忧虑、廉价进口的泛滥，以及大批资金一旦最终撤离所导致的极度波动。
苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)新兴市场经济学家提姆•阿什(Tim Ash)表示："（新兴地区的）央行感到担忧。它们中间存在一种入市干预的倾向。"
不过，从很多方面来看，这种资本流动都是世界所亟需的"宏大再平衡"的第一阶段，值得欢迎。许多发达国家举债过度。为了偿还债务，它们必须创造能够持续数年的财政盈余。
正如英国咨询公司Andrew Hunt Economics所指出的那样，政府必须将这些盈余循环应用到以下两大领域之一：扩大企业投资（鉴于许多西方经济体产能利用率较低，这种情况似乎不太可能）；或者，扩大对负债相对较少地区（如新兴国家）的出口。
对于金砖四国(Bric)及其同类国家而言，最重要的问题是，它们是否具备应对随之而来的货币升值所需的微观经济灵活性——这也是国际货币基金组织(IMF)昨日在其金融稳定展望报告中所推荐的政策之一。尽管巴西央行昨日加入了认为有必要升值的阵营，但中国迄今为止一直抵制升值。
一些领导人——比如俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)——巧妙地回避了这个问题。但这种忽略或许是因为，这个问题尚未让他们感到切肤之痛。快速增长的新兴经济体为发达经济体的复苏提供了支撑，维系了对出口的需求。此外，发展中经济体也正在创造自身的内部需求。
亚洲各国间的发货曾经是通往西方的供应链的一个组成部分，而现在，这些货物往往是出售给本地区消费者。
汇丰(HSBC)亚洲经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)表示："这些东西在中国就卡住了，消失在了当地店铺中，而不是被发往其它目的地。"
亚洲的经济发展势头最为迅猛，拉美紧随其后。欧洲新兴经济体的复苏通常较为脆弱，因为它们对增长缓慢的西欧地区存在依赖。
其它地区面临的风险是货币持续升值。银行家研究集团国际金融学院(International Institute of Finance)表示，今年，新兴经济体的净私人资金流入可能会超过7000亿美元，高于去年的5310亿美元。尽管这一数字远低于2007年创纪录的1.28万亿美元，但考虑到全球经济仍存在不确定性，这样的流入还是相当强劲的。
理想情况下，新兴国家将会对这些资金加以引导，为基础设施与生产性资源提供融资。从发达国家进口资本货物，将会以一种有利的方式结束这种循环。
这是圣保罗咨询公司MB Associados经济学家塞尔吉奥•瓦莱(Sérgio Vale)的观点。在巴西，用进口资本品重新武装过的农业综合产业、建筑、石油与天然气等行业，目前繁荣兴旺；而制鞋与纺织等其它行业，则在遭受着末日之苦。
不过，当地金融体系有欠发达，意味着上述美好图景不一定到来。但政策选择是有限的。
举例来说，资本管制可能起不到什么作用。自巴西去年10月份开始对证券投资征税，雷亚尔就持续走强，股市也不断上涨。中国最近针对第三套房屋贷款出台了限制性规定。
国际货币基金组织还注意到，亚太房地产市场和拉美一些国家股市已初现资产泡沫。尽管它们目前还不是系统性危险点，但IMF对这种可能性发出了警告。
英国《金融时报》约翰•保罗•拉思伯恩(John Paul Rathbone)、斯蒂芬•瓦格斯蒂尔(Stefan Wagstyl)伦敦、凯文•布朗(Kevin Brown)新加坡报道
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032304
Look just about anywhere in the emerging world, and real exchange rates have appreciated rapidly over the past 12 months. Brazil's real is up 27 per cent, Russia's rouble 14 per cent and the Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar index, which tracks the 10 most active emerging Asian currencies, is at a 19-month high.
This is due to a "capital bonanza" in emerging markets, driven partly by ultra-low interest rates in the developed world and rising interest rates elsewhere.
But it also follows a fundamental reassessment of the creditworthiness and prospects of emerging, versus developed, economies. The result for the developing world is a possible capital surfeit and attendant fears of overvalued exchange rates, floods of cheap imports and extreme volatility should the wall of money eventually retreat.
"Central banks are worried," says Tim Ash, emerging markets economist at RBS. "There's a trend towards intervention."
In many ways though, such capital flows are the welcome first stage of the world's needed "great rebalancing". Much of the developed world is overleveraged. To pay down debt, it must generate financial surpluses that need to be sustained over several years.
These surpluses, as Andrew Hunt Economics, a UK-based consultancy, points out, must be recycled into one of two areas: greater corporate investment – unlikely given low rates of capacity utilisation in many western economies – or more exports to less indebted areas, such as the emerging world.
The big question for the Bric economies and their ilk is whether they have the microeconomic flexibility to cope with the subsequent currency appreciation – one of the policies recommended by the International Monetary Fund in its financial stability outlook yesterday. China has so far resisted currency appreciation, although Brazil's central bank yesterday added its voice to those who believe it is necessary.
Some leaders, such as Vladimir Putin, Russian prime minister, have dodged the issue. But such oversight may be because the problem is not yet biting. Fast-growing emerging economies have supported the recovery in developed economies, which has sustained demand for exports. And developing economies are generating their own internal demand.
Shipments between Asian countries that once formed part of a supply chain ending in the west are often sold to regional consumers.
"The stuff is getting stuck in China, disappearing in local shops, rather than being shipped on to other destinations," says Frederic Neumann, Asia economist at HSBC.
The economic momentum is greatest in Asia, followed by Latin America. In Europe's emerging economies, recovery is generally more fragile because of its dependence on slow-growth western Europe.
Elsewhere the risk is that currencies continue to appreciate. According to the International Institute of Finance, a bankers' research group, net private inflows into emerging economies this year could exceed $700bn (€521bn, £455bn) versus $531bn last year. This is well short of the 2007 record of $1,280bn but strong given continuing uncertainty about the global economy.
In an ideal world, these capital inflows would be channelled into financing the infrastructure and productive resources in emerging states. Importing capital goods produced in the developed world would close the circle in a beneficial way.
That is the view of Sérgio Vale, economist at MB Associados, a São Paulo consultancy. Brazilian sectors such as agribusiness, construction and oil and gas, now retooled with imported capital goods, are thriving; others, such as footwear and textiles, are suffering the world over.
Still, underdeveloped local financial systems means this rosy scenario will not always follow. But policy options are limited.
Capital controls, for example, may have little effect. Since Brazil introduced a tax on portfolio investment last October, the real has continued to strengthen and equities to rise. China recently slapped restrictions on bank lending for third homes.
The IMF also notes incipient asset bubbles in Asian-Pacific real estate and some Latin American equity markets. While these are not yet systemic hot spots, the IMF warned they could become so.
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