在一则面向中国市场的迷人广告中，台湾超级名模林志玲坐着一辆奔驰GLK时尚型汽车，前往农村贫困地区送书。
这则广告抓住了中国的一个鲜明特点：一面是都市的繁华，一面则是普遍存在的贫困。但广告也体现出，作为全球最大出口国的中国，正开始成为一个消费大国。
根据麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)的数据，目前在中国国内生产总值(GDP)中，私人消费仅占37%，而美国在全球金融危机爆发前，私人消费占到71%。但是，在林志玲的帮助下，今年一季度，德国汽车公司梅赛德斯(Mercedes)在华汽车销量同比增长一倍以上。
这并非个例。由于3月份进口额猛增66%，中国6年来首次出现月度贸易逆差。
其它亚洲国家也陆续公布内需出现大幅增长。亚洲开发银行(ADB)表示，内需已成为亚洲经济复苏的一个主要动力，预计今年亚洲经济将增长7.5%。
目前的内需增长，是意味着亚洲从此将摆脱严重依赖对美国和欧洲出口的局面，抑或只是因为西方需求不振而出现的暂时现象？经济学家对此存在分歧。
东南亚最大的银行星展银行(DBS)首席经济学家柯大任(David Carbon)表示，消费增加是一种长期性的转变，是在经济增长的背景下，受到可持续的、自生性的内需强劲增长的推动。
柯大任表示："关于亚洲复苏，人们存在两大误解。一是认为亚洲复苏是受到存货活动（企业重新补充存货）的推动；二是认为消费依然落后。事实上，消费在亚洲的复苏中发挥了重要作用，包括直接和通过对库存产生影响间接地推动复苏。"
这种影响在中国最为显著。据星展银行估计，2009年中国内需增加了1800亿美元，而美国只增加了900亿美元左右。亚洲其它地区情况相似。不包含日本，亚洲最大10个国家的私人消费总和，比2008年9月的水平增加了7%。
柯大任表示："所有分析都断言亚洲消费不足。但实际情况明显不同，其实亚洲消费者正在大买特买。"
亚洲开发银行表示，未来两年内，随着美国家庭增加储蓄，从而减少消费，降低对亚洲出口商品的需求，预计亚洲贸易顺差将继续收窄。但亚洲开发银行首席经济学家李钟和(Jong-Wha Lee)表示，一旦紧急货币和财政措施的效应开始消退，他怀疑亚洲消费需求能否继续保持增长。
根据亚洲开发银行的研究，自2008年第三季度以来，平均而言，亚洲十大发展中国家的央行将政策利率下调了234个基点，向各自经济中注入了巨大的流动性。
与此同时，各国政府实施了大规模的财政刺激计划。
李钟和表示，这场"财政试验"在刺激内需上发挥了关键作用。但这是否表明亚洲已明确摆脱了出口主导的发展模式，目前仍不清楚。
要转变发展模式，亚洲各国政府必须采取战略性措施，降低居高不下的储蓄率（这是消费偏低的根源），同时采取可持续的方式促进私人投资。
部分国家已出现转变的苗头。中国国家副主席习近平近期表示，中国"必须主要依靠国内市场来推动经济发展，必须重视内需，尤其是消费需求"。
日本首相鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)也制定了新的增长策略，把经济政策的重点从产出转向社会福利和扩大内需来源上，如完善医疗服务和发展旅游业。
但在中日两国的事例中，人们对于政府承诺的力度仍心存疑虑。
李钟和表示："问题是，政府是否恰当地处理了这些结构性问题？答案是：实际上并没有。政府出台了一些临时措施来减轻出口需求锐减的影响，但我认为，一旦危机过去，他们可能还会回到老样子。"
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032611
In a glamorous television advertisement made for the Chinese market, Lin Chi-ling, a Taiwanese supermodel, is shown delivering books to the rural poor in a swish Mercedes-Benz GLK.
The advert captures China's stark mix of urban sophistication and widespread poverty. But it also illustrates the emergence of the world's biggest exporter as a significant consumer.
Private consumption comprises only 37 per cent of gross domestic product in China, compared with 71 per cent in the US before the world financial crisis, according to McKinsey Global Institute. But with Ms Lin's help, Mercedes more than doubled car sales in China in the first quarter, compared with a year ago.
The German car company is not alone. A 66 per cent imports surge in March led to China's first monthly trade deficit for six years.
Other Asian countries are also reporting big rises in domestic consumption. The Asian Development Bank says domestic demand has been a key force behind a regional economic recovery that it expects to deliver 7.5 per cent growth this year.
Economists differ on whether this is the beginning of a decisive shift away from Asia's reliance on exports to the US and Europe, or just a temporary response to the depressed state of western demand.
David Carbon, chief economist of DBS, south-east Asia's biggest bank, says the increase in consumption is a long-term shift, driven by a surge in sustainable and self-generating domestic demand on the back of economic growth.
"Two big misconceptions about Asia's recovery are that it has been driven by inventories [restocking by businesses] and that consumption continues to lag," said Mr Carbon. "In fact, consumption has played the major role in Asia's recovery, both directly and indirectly via its impact on inventories."
The effect is most dramatic in China, where dom- estic demand increased by $180bn (€142bn, £122bn) in 2009, compared with about $90bn in the US, according to DBS estimates. The picture is similar in the rest of Asia, with private consumption in its 10 biggest nations, excluding Japan, more than 7 per cent above September 2008 levels.
"In sharp contrast to all the analysis claiming that Asia does not consume enough, it is buying up a storm," said Mr Carbon.
The ADB says it expects Asia's trade surplus to continue to narrow in the next two years, as US households save more – leading to a fall in consumption and lower demand for Asian exports. But Jong-Wah Lee, chief economist, says he is sceptical about the sustainability of Asian consumer demand once the impact of emergency monetary and fiscal measures begins to dissipate.
According to ADB re- search, central banks in the 10 biggest Asian developing states slashed an average of 234 basis points from policy interest rates from the third quarter of 2008 onwards, injecting massive liquidity into their economies.
Governments, meanwhile, introduced substantial fiscal stimulus packages.
This "fiscal experiment" played a key role in stimulating domestic consumption, says Mr Lee. But it remains unclear whether it signals a decisive shift from the export model.
For this to happen, governments would have to make strategic efforts to cut Asia's high savings rates – the root cause of low consumer spending – and find sustainable ways to stimulate private investment.
In some countries, there are signs that this is happening. Xi Jinping, China's vice-president, said recently that China "must develop the economy mainly by relying on the domestic market and attach great importance to domestic de- mand, especially consumption demand".
Yukio Hatoyama, Japan's prime minister, has also set out a growth strategy shifting economic policy emphasis from output to welfare and new sources of domestic demand such as health services and tourism.
But doubts about the ex- tent of government commitment remain in both cases.
"The question is whether these structural issues have been handled appropriately by . . . governments," said Mr Lee. "The answer is: not really. There are some temporary measures developed to mitigate the collapse in demand for exports, but I think once the crisis is over there is a risk they will go back to the old ways."
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