中国开创性的政策转变，不会发一篇洋洋洒洒的声明，或是举行一次扣人心弦的投票就得以实现。相反，它们的发展演变，穿插着历经连续不断的泄露、暗示、否认和语焉不详的官方声明——比如国务院上周发布的40个字的通知，声明国务院已经批准逐步推进“房产税”改革的计划。
这份通知在现实中的解读可能是：中国将在未来几个月推出某种形式按年征收的居民房产税。如果这种情况确实发生了——目前仍是“如果”——这将是多年来中国政府开创的最重要的改革之一。
对于推出此类税收的直接解释是遏制房地产投机——许多人担心，房地产投机正在催生泡沫。周四发布的最新数据显示，今年5月份，中国70个大中城市房价同比上涨12.4%。
关于中国房地产繁荣的怪事之一，是大城市房屋空置的数量。花一个晚上到在房地产中介机构声称已经售罄的新小区走一走，就会发现大多数楼房没有亮灯的现象并不少见。
其中的原因在于，一些楼房的买家是几乎没有兴趣入住的投资客。由于只持有房产不用交税，他们会让房子空置，等待合适的时间“抛售”。
中国投资者钟爱房地产还有许多其它原因，尤其是他们目前从银行获得的实际回报率为负值。但要降低房地产投机的吸引力，房产税还有一段路要走。
不过，拟议房产税的实际重要性远不止于控制泡沫横生的房价。它还可以为中国政府谈论多年但未能实施的一些关键社会改革开辟道路。
中国快速发展背后迟迟不能平息的丑闻，是本国1亿至1.5亿民工受到的待遇。由于被剥夺了成为城市永久居民的权利，民工们常常无法让自己的孩子进入公办学校上学，也享受不到其它社会福利。中国改革者为“二等公民”的命运哀叹，也不乏“种族隔离”的言论。被内定为中国下一届总理的李克强本月表示，将把城镇化改革作为一项工作重点。
但是作为福利提供者的地方政府财力薄弱，总是会阻碍各项改革尝试。随着各省市从银行借入大量资金为基础设施支出融资，它们的财政状况在过去一年里变得更加薄弱。
确实，如果说中国在危机后的繁荣存在致命弱点，那就是地方政府不透明的债务水平。如果房产税得以推出，它最终将有助于为地方政府提供财源，开始支付民工应得的福利。
溢出效应不止于此。有了更稳定的收入来源，地方政府就不必那么积极地向开发商出售土地——这是他们目前主要的收入来源之一，在农民搬迁过程中也造成了无穷无尽的社会紧张局面。房产税还将增加地方政府的压力，让他们的支出变得更加透明。正如中国央行顾问李稻葵所言，地方政府将不得不“向房屋所有人报告他们是如何使用这笔资金的。换句话说，房产税可以作为改善地方政府治理的工具”。
不过，房产税也遭到了激烈的反对，有时是来自个人层面的。那些利用不当收入买了多套住房的官员会发现自己将遭遇新的审查。许多官员喜欢当前的土地拍卖制度——可以借机“寻租”。
最重要的是，如果操作不当，推出房产税可能导致房地产市场崩盘，危及经济增长，引发社会不满。
北京近来流传着“改革疲劳症”的言论：即胡-温领导层已放弃做出艰难决定，将放松心情，等待2012年计划退休时间的到来。有关房产税的讨论将会检验这种说法是否属实。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001033078
Ground-breaking policy shifts in China do not take place with one big, cathartic announcement or after a cliff-hanging vote. Instead, they evolve through a steady drip of leaks, hints, denials and oblique official statements – such as the 40-character notice last week by the State Council that it had approved plans gradually to reform the “real estate tax system”.
The real-world translation of this statement is probably: China will start to introduce some form of annual tax on residential property in the coming months. If that does happen – and it is still is an “if” – it would be one of the most important reforms Beijing has pioneered in years.
The immediate explanation for bringing in such a tax is to stifle property speculation, which many fear is feeding a bubble. New data released yesterday showed house prices were up 12.4 per cent over the year to May.
One of the curious things about China's real estate boom is the number of empty flats in big cities. Spend an evening walking round new compounds that estate agents say are sold out and it is not uncommon to find buildings where most of the lights are off.
The reason is that some of the flats will have been bought by investors who have little interest in using them. With no taxes to be paid for just holding property, they keep the apartments as empty shells so they can be “flipped” at the right moment.
There are plenty of other motives for why Chinese investors love real estate, notably the negative real returns they currently get from banks. But a property tax would go some way to making speculation on housing less attractive.
Yet the real importance of the proposed property tax goes far beyond controlling frothy housing prices. It could also open the way to some of the crucial social reforms that Beijing has been talking about for years but has not been able to execute.
The simmering scandal behind China's rapid development has been the treatment of the 100m-150m migrant workers. Deprived of the right to become permanent residents in the cities, they are often denied access to subsidised schools and other social benefits. Chinese reformers bemoan the fate of “second-class citizens” and talk of “apartheid”. Li Keqiang, slated to be China's next premier, said this month that reforming the system was a priority.
But attempts at reform have always been stalled by the fragile finances of the local governments that would have to provide these benefits. Those finances have got weaker over the past year as cities and provinces have borrowed vast sums of money from banks to fund infrastructure spending.
Indeed, if China's post-crisis boom has an Achilles heel, it is the hidden levels of local government debt. If a property tax were introduced, it would eventually help provide local governments with the financial resources to begin paying migrant workers their due.
The spill-over effects do not end there. With more stable income sources, local governments would not need to be so aggressive about selling land to developers, one of their current main sources of revenue and the cause of endless social tension as residents or farmers are displaced. Such a tax would also increase the pressure on local governments to be more transparent about their spending. As Li Daokui, an adviser to the Chinese central bank, put it, local governments would have to “report back to the homeowners how they have used this money. In other words, the tax can be used as an instrument to improve local government management”.
Yet the opposition to property taxes is fierce and sometimes personal. Those officials whose ill-gotten gains have been funnelled into owning multiple apartments will find themselves under new scrutiny. And lots of officials like the current system of auctioning swathes of land, a recipe for “rent-seeking”.
Most of all, the introduction of the tax, if not well-handled, could cause the property market to crash, endangering economic growth and provoking howls of angst across society.
There is a lot of talk in Beijing these days about “reform fatigue”,that the Hu-Wen leadership has given up on difficult decisions and will coast to a planned retirement in 2012. The property tax discussion will be a test of whether this is true.
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