中国副总理回良玉最近访问新德里时，东道主赠送给他一驾由两匹马拉着的小型银制马车，还巧妙地说道，这两匹马代表中国与印度正将世界经济拉上复苏轨道。
大多数时候，这两匹马在往不同的方向使力。中国电信与电力设备对印度破旧基础设施的现代化至关重要，但印度却对自己日益依赖中国设备感到不爽。它已对中国企业从本国引进工人，以修建管道与电厂的做法施加了限制。由于担忧人为压低的人民币推动大量廉价出口涌入，印度还对中国"山寨"手机、玩具与巧克力施加了限制。
这种紧张也延伸至领土范畴。印度担忧中国对与不丹与西藏接壤的阿鲁纳恰尔邦(Arunachal Pradesh)宣称拥有的主权；中国政府在有争议的克什米尔(Kashmir)地区的干预；以及中国在印度洋与阿拉伯海的海军活动。中国与巴基斯坦结盟并向后者供应军事装备，也让印度难以释怀。
中国官员则抱怨说，他们试图在印度一些高校开设孔子学院，以宣扬中国语言与文化的要求遭到了拒绝。中国增长迅速的电信公司华为抱怨称，外国技术供应商发现，在印度开展业务变得越来越困难。
为了让中印走得更近，首先需要解决两国间令人尴尬的贸易失衡。过去十年来，中国已非常迅速地成为（按照不同的计算方法）要么是印度的最大贸易伙伴，要么是仅次于美国的印度第二大贸易伙伴。世界两大增长最迅速的大型经济体间的双边贸易，已从1990年的2.6亿美元，增长至了2008年的520亿美元。
据中国估计，随着两国摆脱全球金融危机的影响，今年中印贸易预计将达600亿美元之多。
但贸易流动严重一面倒。印度并未对贸易迅速增长欢欣鼓舞，而是对绝对有利于中国的不断扩大的逆差深感不满。大约70%印度对华出口都是原材料，这些原材料随后会以高附加值成品的形式流回印度，对印度中小企业构成冲击。
在去年434亿美元的双边贸易额中，印度贸易逆差为160亿美元。
这种贸易失衡已上升至印度对华议程的最前列。印度各部长呼吁采取各项纠正措施，并已将自己的抱怨传达给中国总理温家宝。印度外长S•M•克里希纳(S.M. Krishna)与印度总统普拉蒂巴•帕蒂尔(Pratibha Patil)，可能会再次传达这些呼吁。前者将于本周访问北京，后者将于今年晚些时候正式访问中国。
纠正措施包括，新德里希望北京撤销对印度信息技术、宝莱坞(Bollywood)电影以及新鲜食品出口的限制，并增加印度企业在中国医药与IT行业的投资机会。
有迹象表明，北京在倾听。印度对其目的明确的邻国的担忧，此前往往遭到北京的冷遇。但考虑到两国代表了全球近半数人口，中国的共产党领袖现在似乎愿意合作了。
回良玉承认了平衡贸易的必要性。他表示，中国不需要维持对印度的贸易盈余。他甚至提出了一个四点计划，旨在刺激中国消费者需求、鼓励印度在华投资，以及在农业、制造业、环保领域开展技术合作。
印度建议中国不要马上寻求参与电信、港口及其它关键基础设施等印度比较敏感的行业，以求在印度构建更大的信心。它还表示，中国也不应该试图输出低技术劳工。一些政策顾问认为，中国应该以韩国为榜样，三星(Samsung)与现代(Hyundai)等韩国企业已强劲打入印度经济。
北京与新德里需要开始商讨细节，并着手消除各种非关税壁垒，以防不断扩大的逆差进一步侵蚀信任。
但那驾银制马车将前往何方？中印希望在未来25年期间实现8%到10%的年度经济增幅。它们所认为的在联合国哥本哈根气候变化谈判中与美国对抗取胜，仍然令它们感到兴奋，但它们也希望在气候、贸易以及世界金融架构多边谈判中，更紧密地协调双方的利益。
印度统治阶层内部对此观点不一。一些人预言会与中国闹翻，其他人——如印度活跃的环境部长、国大党领袖索尼娅•甘地(Sonia Gandhi)的亲密盟友扎拉姆•拉梅什(Jairam Ramesh)——则认为两国会结成伙伴关系。拉梅什提议说，无论印度在世界上要做什么，它都应该与中国联合行动。他认为，随着印度企业提高效率、而中国更加开放，贸易纠纷将会有所缓和。
但拉梅什等一些官员也觉察出，深化与中国的合作关系，会加剧与其它地方的摩擦，尤其是美国。他警告称："如果说美国发现中国令人头痛，他们会发现同时应付中印是一个噩梦。"中印马车可能会变得更加平衡，但道路不会更加平坦。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032045
When Hui Liangyu, China's vice-premier, visited New Delhi last week he was presented with a miniature silver chariot pulled by two horses. The horses, his hosts quipped, represented China and India pulling the global economy into recovery.
More often than not these horses pull in different directions. India bridles at its growing dependence on Chinese telecommunications and power equipment, vital for modernising its decrepit infrastructure. It has imposed curbs on Chinese companies bringing workers across the Himalayas to build pipelines and power plants. Fearful of a flood of cheap imports supported by an artificially weak renminbi, India has also put restrictions on non-branded Chinese mobile handsets, toys and chocolate.
The tensions stretch to territory, too. India worries about Chinese claims to Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian state bordering Bhutan and Tibet; Beijing's interference in disputed Kashmir; and its navy's presence in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. China's alliance with Pakistan, and its supply of military hardware, also rankles.
In turn, Chinese officials grumble that their efforts to open Confucius institutes in a handful of Indian universities, to promote Chinese language and culture, have been rejected. Huawei, the fast-growing Chinese telecoms company, complains that foreign technology providers are finding it increasingly difficult to do business in India.
To bring China and India closer, an awkward trading alignment first needs to be fixed. Over the past 10 years, China has very quickly become, by different calculations, either India's top trading partner or second only to the US. Bilateral trade between the world's two fastest-growing large economies rose to $52bn in 2008 from $260m in 1990.
By Chinese estimates, trade between the two is expected to reach as much as $60bn (€45bn, £40bn) this year as the economies shrug off the effects of the global financial crisis.
But trade flows are terribly lopsided. Far from celebrating burgeoning trade, India harbours deep resentment over a yawning deficit overwhelmingly in China's favour. About 70 per cent of India's exports to China are raw materials that then come back as higher value finished goods that undercut India's small and medium-sized businesses.
India's deficit last year was $16bn on bilateral trade of $43.4bn.
This skewed trade has risen to the top of New Delhi's agenda with Beijing. Ministers have appealed for corrective steps and have taken their complaints to Wen Jiabao, China's premier. These appeals are likely to be delivered again by S. M. Krishna, India's foreign minister, on a visit to Beijing next week, and by Pratibha Patil, India's president, on her official visit later this year.
Among other measures, New Delhi wants Beijing to end restrictions on Indian exports of information technology, Bollywood films and fresh food. It wants greater investment opportunities for Indian companies in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and IT.
The signs are that Beijing is listening. India's concerns about its purposeful neighbour have often been met with indifference in Beijing. But China's Communist party leaders, mindful that the two countries represent almost half of humanity, now appear receptive to a partnership.
Mr Hui acknowledges the need to balance trade. China does not need to run a trade surplus with India, he says. He even offers a four-point plan, based on stimulating demand among Chinese consumers, encouraging Indian investments in China and technological partnership in agriculture, manufacturing and environmental protection.
India has advised China how it could build more confidence in India by not immediately seeking participation in its more sensitive sectors such as telecoms, ports and other critical infrastructure. Nor, it says, should Beijing seek to export its low-skilled labour. Some policy advisers hold up South Korea, which has made strong inroads into the Indian economy with Samsung and Hyundai, as an example to follow.
Beijing and New Delhi need to get down to specifics, and the removal of non-tariff barriers, before the widening deficit erodes trust further.
But where is the silver chariot headed? India and China are hoping to grow at 8-10 per cent over the next 25 years. Still flushed by what they consider a triumphant confrontation with the US at the United Nations talks on climate change in Copenhagen, they are also hoping to align their interests more closely in multilateral discussions over climate, trade and the world's financial architecture.
The Indian establishment is split. While some predict enmity with China, others – such as Jairam Ramesh, India's feisty environment minister and a close ally of Congress party head Sonia Gandhi – foresee partnership. Mr Ramesh proposes that whatever India does in the world it should do with China. The trade dispute, in his opinion, will ease as India's companies become more efficient, and as China opens.
But Mr Ramesh is not alone in identifying a deeper alliance as creating greater friction elsewhere, particularly in the US. "If the Americans are finding China a headache, they will find dealing with India and China a nightmare," he warns. The chariot ride may become more balanced, but no less bumpy.
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