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国的汽车市场在2009年出现爆发式增长，支撑起疲弱不堪的全球汽车工业，连美国市场也只能屈居其次。但在2010年，其前进过程不会如此顺畅而快速。分析人士预测，今年中国的汽车销量将放缓，增长幅度只有5%到6%。这对于很多市场来讲都是一种不错的增长，但在2009年，中国汽车销量出现了大约50%的激增，这一年中国人购买了大约1,300万辆汽车，而美国人的购车数量只略超1,000万辆。
European Pressphoto Agency
预计2010年中国汽车销量只会有5%到6%的增速
消费研究机构J.D. Power & Associates预计，经过2009年的良好表现过后，通用汽车的在华销量将在2010年呈小幅度下降。周一通用汽车表示，它在中国的销量，包括一家合资公司生产的五菱微型面包车和微型卡车，在去年达到了183万辆，增长67%。J.D. Power预计福特2010年的在华销量将增长6%，低于去年50%的增长幅度。
曾长期担任通用汽车高管的施雷斯(Rudy Schlais)认为，底特律两大汽车巨头在华业务面临的挑战将开始越来越多地显现，这些挑战包括应对产品老化，以及在增加产能的同时保证质量。他说，水落则石出。施雷斯2001年从通用亚太区总裁的职位离任，目前是多家中国汽车品牌的顾问。
福特和通用都对这些担忧不以为然，并对今年的在华业务表达了乐观。
福特驻华高管何骏杰(Nigel Harris)说，我们特别看好2010年，特别看好未来数年中国的潜力。
通用驻上海发言人阿尔巴诺(Michael Albano)表示，通用对2010年感到乐观，打算在中国保持它的领导地位，并在2010年推出"接近10款"新产品，其中包括新版GL8微型面包车。
对于全球汽车生产商来说，好消息在于，由于美国经济的复苏，2010年中国将不再是唯一增长的主要市场。J.D. Power预测，美国2010年的汽车销量可能会增长约12%。这个速度比中国更快。
即便如此，中国市场仍将远大于美国市场，汽车销量会至少多出200万辆。J.D. Power预计，随着西欧地区政府鼓励措施到期，2010年该地区的汽车销量或将下降；日本市场的销量可能会小幅下降。
中国市场存在的一个重大因素同样也是政府的刺激措施。去年1月份，中国政府将小排量汽车购置税减半，而据目前的统计，这是2009年增长速度最快的细分市场。不过分析人士说，尽管中国的整体经济增长已经形成势头，但刺激政策的效应可能会在2010减弱。很多可能受这种政策鼓舞的消费者已经购买了汽车，一些分析人士相信，在鼓励措施的作用下，2010年的汽车销量已被"提前实现"。
政府已经降低了2010年小排量汽车的税收优惠，购置税从2009年的5%提高到了7.5%，不过仍低于10%的正常水平。
分析人士预计，随着销量增长的放缓，竞争将更趋激烈，这将给那些产品陈旧的汽车生产商带来冲击，比如福特。
福特在2009年3月推出了全新超小型汽车嘉年华(Fiesta)。据J.D. Power估计，在这款车型的帮助下，2009年福特的总销量增长50%，达到291,825辆。（福特的总销量包含了旗下的沃尔沃(Volvo)品牌。）但作为其支柱的小型车福克斯(Focus)已经有四年历史，分析人士说，要到2011年或2012年在中国才会见到它的新版。另外一款支柱车型、中型轿车蒙迪欧(Mondeo)2007年面世，并没有获得中国消费者的追捧，其销量被丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)的凯美瑞(Camry)和本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)的雅阁(Accord)等对手远远超过。
福特的何骏杰说，公司在2010年的目标是增长速度超过行业整体水平。他说，福特可能会推出某些车型的"特别版"来保持更新，并将把经销商数量增加70家到310家。2009年，福特经销商数量增加了31家。
预计通用也将在今年更新它的产品线，比如更新别克凯越(Buick Excelle)与HRV这类重要的小型车，换为更加时髦、经过大幅改进的车型，并在年底推出GL8微型面包车的新版。目前销售的GL8是在2000年推出的。
2009年，由于小排量汽车购置税降低，一项刺激计划也鼓励了农村居民购买新车，对通用和上海汽车工业（集团）总公司(Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp.)、柳州五菱汽车有限公司(Wuling Automobile Co.)联合生产的廉价微型面包车的需求大幅增加，通用的五菱车型销量增长64%，达到106万辆。
美国咨询公司CSM Worldwide驻上海高级分析师张豫(Yale Zhang)认为，由于有太多未来销量被这些刺激政策提前到了2009年，通用五菱车型保持势头的可能性相当低。J.D. Power预计，五菱微型面包车的销量将下降接近6%。
另外，克莱斯勒集团(Chrysler Group LLC)在华业务不多，没有在中国进行生产。2009年，它在中国销售的吉普(Jeep)、道奇(Dodge)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)估计为16,000辆，预计2010年的销量会下降到12,000辆。
大众汽车(Volkswagen AG)是中国汽车市场的霸主，J.D. Power预计它2010年的销量将增长5.5%到153万辆，低于行业平均预期增长速度。
虽然预计增长速度放缓，但汽车生产商仍将需要扩大产能，因为很多厂商一直是在开足马力来满足需求。
Norihiko Shirouzu
China's car market exploded in 2009, propping up an ailing global industry and relegating the U.S. to the second spot. In 2010, the ride won't be nearly as smooth or fast.
Vehicle sales in China are expected to slam on the brakes this year, and grow by as little as 5% to 6%, according to analysts' projections. That would be healthy growth in many markets, but in China it comes after the roughly 50% surge in 2009, when Chinese shoppers bought about 13 million vehicles, compared with just over 10 million in the U.S.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)
Analysts say that among global car makers, the slowdown may be particularly severe for Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co., for which China was perhaps the only bright spot in an otherwise painful 2009.
J.D. Power & Associates expects GM's sales in China to dip slightly in 2010 after a blazing 2009. On Monday, GM said its China sales, including Wuling microvans and microtrucks built by a joint venture, expanded 67% last year to 1.83 million vehicles. For Ford, J.D. Power forecast 6% sales growth in 2010, down from 50% last year.
Challenges in the Detroit duo's China business - such as coping with aging products and maintaining quality while increasing capacity - 'would start getting more exposed,' says Rudy Schlais, a longtime GM executive who retired in 2001 as its Asia Pacific president and is now an adviser to several Chinese auto brands. 'When water goes down in the river, rocks will start to show up.'
Both Ford and GM shrugged off concerns and expressed optimism about their China business this year.
'We're pretty bullish about 2010...and China's potential in years to come,' said Nigel Harris, a senior Ford executive in China.
GM's Shanghai-based spokesman, Michael Albano, said GM is optimistic about 2010 and intends to maintain its leadership position in China and introduce 'almost 10' new products in 2010, including the redesigned GL8 minivan.
The good news for global car makers is that China will no longer be the only major market growing in 2010, thanks to the recovering U.S. economy. Vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2010 are likely to grow about 12% - faster than in China - according to J.D. Power.
Even so, the Chinese market will remain far larger than America's - by at least two million vehicle sales. Sales in Western Europe are expected to fall in 2010, as government incentive programs there expire, and sales in Japan are likely to edge down, J.D. Power says.
One big factor in China is also government stimulus. Beijing last January halved the sales tax on vehicles with smaller engines, which were by far the fastest-growing segment of the market in 2009. But the effect of such stimulus policies could subside in 2010, analysts say, even though China's overall economic growth has gathered momentum. Many customers likely to be persuaded to buy a car by such measures have already taken the plunge, and some analysts believe the incentives have 'pulled ahead' sales from 2010.
For 2010, the government has reduced its tax cut on small cars. Buyers will pay 7.5% instead of the 5% rate in 2009 - though still less than the normal rate of 10%.
As sales growth slows, analysts expect more competition, which could hurt car makers with graying products, such as Ford.
Ford launched its Fiesta, an all new subcompact, in March, and the car helped Ford's overall sales grow 50% in 2009 to 291,825 vehicles, according to an estimate by J.D. Power. (Ford's total sales include sales of Ford's Volvo brand.) But the mainstay Focus compact car is already four years old and isn't due for a redesign in China until 2011 or 2012, analysts say. Another mainstay car, the midsize Mondeo, came out in 2007 and hasn't resonated with Chinese customers. It was outsold substantially by such rivals as Toyota Motor Corp.'s (TM, 7203.TO) Camry and Honda Motor Co.'s (HMC, 7267.TO) Accord.
Ford's Harris says the company's aim for 2010 is to grow faster than the overall industry. He says Ford may launch 'special editions' of some models to keep them fresh and to increase the number of dealers by 70 to 310 stores after adding 31 in 2009.
GM, meantime, is expected to refresh its model lineup this year, including redesigns of the key Buick Excelle and HRV compact cars, which are expected to be replaced by sleeker, significantly re-engineered models, and a redesigned version of the GL8 minivan late in the year, after selling the current model since 2000.
Thanks to the tax cut on smaller cars and an incentive program that encouraged rural residents to buy new cars, demand for the ultra-cheap microvans GM produces with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and Wuling Automobile Co. surged in 2009, pushing up sales of GM Wuling models by 64% to 1.06 million vehicles.
But so many future sales were pulled ahead in 2009 by those incentives that Yale Zhang, a Shanghai-based senior analyst with U.S.-consulting firm CSM Worldwide, says GM is 'highly unlikely' to be able to keep the momentum it had with Wuling. J.D. Power expects Wuling microvan sales to slip nearly 6%.
Chrysler Group LLC, meanwhile, has only a small presence in China, without any local production. It sold an estimated 16,000 Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler vehicles in 2009, and the volume is expected to dip in 2010, to 12,000 vehicles.
For Volkswagen AG, the market leader in China, J.D. Power expects overall 2010 sales to rise 5.5% to 1.53 million cars, lower than the industry's average growth forecast for cars.
Despite the expected slowdown, auto makers will still have to expand capacity since many have been operating at maximum output to meet demand.
Norihiko Shirouzu
Vehicle sales in China are expected to slam on the brakes this year, and grow by as little as 5% to 6%, according to analysts' projections. That would be healthy growth in many markets, but in China it comes after the roughly 50% surge in 2009, when Chinese shoppers bought about 13 million vehicles, compared with just over 10 million in the U.S.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)
Analysts say that among global car makers, the slowdown may be particularly severe for Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co., for which China was perhaps the only bright spot in an otherwise painful 2009.
J.D. Power & Associates expects GM's sales in China to dip slightly in 2010 after a blazing 2009. On Monday, GM said its China sales, including Wuling microvans and microtrucks built by a joint venture, expanded 67% last year to 1.83 million vehicles. For Ford, J.D. Power forecast 6% sales growth in 2010, down from 50% last year.
Challenges in the Detroit duo's China business - such as coping with aging products and maintaining quality while increasing capacity - 'would start getting more exposed,' says Rudy Schlais, a longtime GM executive who retired in 2001 as its Asia Pacific president and is now an adviser to several Chinese auto brands. 'When water goes down in the river, rocks will start to show up.'
Both Ford and GM shrugged off concerns and expressed optimism about their China business this year.
'We're pretty bullish about 2010...and China's potential in years to come,' said Nigel Harris, a senior Ford executive in China.
GM's Shanghai-based spokesman, Michael Albano, said GM is optimistic about 2010 and intends to maintain its leadership position in China and introduce 'almost 10' new products in 2010, including the redesigned GL8 minivan.
The good news for global car makers is that China will no longer be the only major market growing in 2010, thanks to the recovering U.S. economy. Vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2010 are likely to grow about 12% - faster than in China - according to J.D. Power.
Even so, the Chinese market will remain far larger than America's - by at least two million vehicle sales. Sales in Western Europe are expected to fall in 2010, as government incentive programs there expire, and sales in Japan are likely to edge down, J.D. Power says.
One big factor in China is also government stimulus. Beijing last January halved the sales tax on vehicles with smaller engines, which were by far the fastest-growing segment of the market in 2009. But the effect of such stimulus policies could subside in 2010, analysts say, even though China's overall economic growth has gathered momentum. Many customers likely to be persuaded to buy a car by such measures have already taken the plunge, and some analysts believe the incentives have 'pulled ahead' sales from 2010.
For 2010, the government has reduced its tax cut on small cars. Buyers will pay 7.5% instead of the 5% rate in 2009 - though still less than the normal rate of 10%.
As sales growth slows, analysts expect more competition, which could hurt car makers with graying products, such as Ford.
Ford launched its Fiesta, an all new subcompact, in March, and the car helped Ford's overall sales grow 50% in 2009 to 291,825 vehicles, according to an estimate by J.D. Power. (Ford's total sales include sales of Ford's Volvo brand.) But the mainstay Focus compact car is already four years old and isn't due for a redesign in China until 2011 or 2012, analysts say. Another mainstay car, the midsize Mondeo, came out in 2007 and hasn't resonated with Chinese customers. It was outsold substantially by such rivals as Toyota Motor Corp.'s (TM, 7203.TO) Camry and Honda Motor Co.'s (HMC, 7267.TO) Accord.
Ford's Harris says the company's aim for 2010 is to grow faster than the overall industry. He says Ford may launch 'special editions' of some models to keep them fresh and to increase the number of dealers by 70 to 310 stores after adding 31 in 2009.
GM, meantime, is expected to refresh its model lineup this year, including redesigns of the key Buick Excelle and HRV compact cars, which are expected to be replaced by sleeker, significantly re-engineered models, and a redesigned version of the GL8 minivan late in the year, after selling the current model since 2000.
Thanks to the tax cut on smaller cars and an incentive program that encouraged rural residents to buy new cars, demand for the ultra-cheap microvans GM produces with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and Wuling Automobile Co. surged in 2009, pushing up sales of GM Wuling models by 64% to 1.06 million vehicles.
But so many future sales were pulled ahead in 2009 by those incentives that Yale Zhang, a Shanghai-based senior analyst with U.S.-consulting firm CSM Worldwide, says GM is 'highly unlikely' to be able to keep the momentum it had with Wuling. J.D. Power expects Wuling microvan sales to slip nearly 6%.
Chrysler Group LLC, meanwhile, has only a small presence in China, without any local production. It sold an estimated 16,000 Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler vehicles in 2009, and the volume is expected to dip in 2010, to 12,000 vehicles.
For Volkswagen AG, the market leader in China, J.D. Power expects overall 2010 sales to rise 5.5% to 1.53 million cars, lower than the industry's average growth forecast for cars.
Despite the expected slowdown, auto makers will still have to expand capacity since many have been operating at maximum output to meet demand.
Norihiko Shirouzu
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