周
三开幕的瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛虽然举办地在欧洲，但在这场汇聚了全球经济和政治领袖的大会上，美国和中国将是众多讨论中的焦点。全球经济危机以及应对全球气候变暖的艰难努力越来越清楚的表明：中国正成为仅次于美国的世界影响力第二大的国家。
越来越多的决策者、经济学家和政治分析师称美中双边关系是目前最重要的国际关系。除非这两个风格迥异的强国能够携手合作，否则成功管理全球化世界的机会渺茫。
但尽管美国和中国可能是未来最强大的国家，许多分析师和官员怀疑他们能否或应否建立一个事实的两国集团(G-2)以处理全球事务。两国利益、富裕程度、政治意识形态和外交方针均不相同，合作前途荆棘密布。
历史表明，即有大国与后起之秀之间的伙伴关系前途未卜。从远古的斯巴达与雅典，到一个世纪以前的英国与德国，霸主与新星之间倾向于对抗而非合作。
华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)主任伯格斯滕(Fred Bergsten)说，虽然面临诸多挑战，但G-2伙伴应当管理全球经济，成为一个非正式的"管理委员会"，促进包括20国集团(G20)和世界贸易组织(WTO)在内的多机构之间进行更广泛合作。
伯格斯滕还说，除非G-2同意，想要在这些全球机构内取得进展十分困难。在哥本哈根召开的联合国气候大会证明：达成一项协议需要美国总统奥巴马和中国总理温家宝在最后时刻举行峰会。
奥巴马去年11月访问北京之时，温家宝否定了G-2伙伴关系的想法。据中国官方媒体新华社报道称，温家宝说，全球问题必须由全世界的国家，而不是一两个国家共同决定，中国在实现现代化之前还有很长的路要走，我们必须始终对此保持清醒的认识。
G-2伙伴关系的想法充满争议，因为该想法蕴含的是两国霸权，而当今世界较之冷战时期的两极世界在政治上更为多极化。
乔治华盛顿大学(George Washington University)中国问题专家、目前在中国社会科学院做访问学者的肖姆博格(David Shambaugh)说，亚洲和欧洲的所有主要大国都不会希望把管理全球事务的工作让与华盛顿和北京，而发展中国家也会反对这样做。
尽管影响力越来越大，中国仍喜欢作为发展中国家集团中的一员，以避免成为关注的焦点或招致压力和批评。别具一格的是，温家宝邀请印度、巴西和南非的领导人参加了在哥本哈根与奥巴马总统举行的重要会议。
分析人士说，北京方面担心全球领导的角色会迫使中国担负起自己还没有准备好要承担的责任，比如在减少碳排放上有更多的作为。
中国更喜欢把自己称为一个将主要精力放在本国事务上的穷国，这是一种低调的做法，保持了已故领导人邓小平"韬光养晦，有所作为"的原则。中国领导层甚至反对中国是全球经济大国的说法。
这种论点站不住脚：中国的经济力量已经太强大，掩盖不住了。
普遍的消息认为，中国今年将取代日本成为世界第二大经济体。据高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)说，中国国内生产总值(GDP)有望在17年内超过美国。
中美两国已经是世界上最大的贸易国。中国的防务预算居世界第二，不过分析人士说，中国要赶上美国的军事能力还需要几十年的时间。
很多参加达沃斯世界经济论坛的官员和分析人士都很可能会说，中美两国实现对等的调整可能是恢复全球经济平衡的关键。
伯格斯滕说，中国很快就必须在全球秩序方面担负起更多的责任。他说，当你成为一个经济超级大国的时候，你的行为会对全球体系会带来很大影响，以致于会反过来影响你自身的利益，所以你必须考虑到这一点。
举例来讲，中国坚持将人民币兑美元汇率保持在低于市场力量作用结果的水平上，这有可能引发美国、欧洲和世界其他地方的保护主义反应，进而损害中国的出口型经济。伯格斯滕说，从中国的利益出发，它应该成为开放世界贸易制度的保护人。
Marcus Walker / Andrew Batson
The setting may be European, but the U.S. and China will be central to many of the discussions when global business and political leaders meet at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which opens Wednesday.
The global financial crisis and the stumbling efforts to tackle climate change have highlighted the mounting evidence that China is becoming the world's second-most influential country after the U.S.
A growing number of policy makers, economists and political analysts argue that the U.S.-China bilateral relationship is now the most important of all -- and that the chances of managing the globalized world successfully will be slim unless these two powers, as different as yin and yang, can cooperate.
But although the U.S. and China may be the two most powerful countries for years to come, many analysts and officials doubt they can, or should, form a de facto Group of Two to set the global agenda. Differences of interest, affluence, political ideology, and diplomatic approach are among the obstacles.
History suggests a partnership between an established power and a rising one is a stretch. From ancient Sparta and Athens to Britain and Germany a century ago, hegemons and upstarts have tended to collide, rather than cooperate.
Despite the challenges, Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, argues that a G-2 partnership should manage the global economy, acting as an informal 'steering committee' to facilitate broader deals within multilateral institutions, including the Group of 20 and the World Trade Organization.
'Unless the G-2 agrees, it's very hard to achieve progress within these global institutions,' Mr. Bergsten says. The U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen bore that out: Achieving a deal required a last-minute summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
Mr. Wen rejected the idea of a G-2 partnership during Mr. Obama's visit to Beijing in November. 'Global issues should be decided by all nations in the world, rather than one or two countries,' Mr. Wen said. China has a long way to go before it is modernized and 'we must always keep sober-minded over it,' he said, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua.
The idea of a G-2 partnership is controversial, because it suggests a two-nation hegemony over a world that is more politically fragmented than during the bipolar Cold War era.
'All the major Asian and European powers would not wish to cede management of world affairs to Washington and Beijing, and developing countries would oppose it too,' says David Shambaugh, a China specialist at George Washington University who is currently a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Despite its growing heft, China still prefers to act as part of a group of other developing countries, to avoid standing in the limelight and attracting pressure and criticism. Characteristically, Mr. Wen invited the leaders of India, Brazil and South Africa to the crucial meeting with Mr. Obama in Copenhagen.
Beijing fears a global leadership role would force it to take on responsibilities that it isn't ready for, such as doing more to cut carbon emissions, say analysts.
China prefers to style itself as a poor country largely focused on its own affairs -- a low-key approach in keeping with late leader Deng Xiaoping's instruction to 'hide one's capacities and bide one's time.' The Chinese leadership even disputes the idea that China is a global economic power.
It is a losing argument. Beijing's economic might has become far too great to hide.
China is widely tipped to overtake Japan as the world's second biggest economy this year. The country's gross domestic product is set to overtake the U.S.'s in 17 years, according to Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jim O'Neill.
The U.S. and China are already the world's biggest trading nations. China has the world's second-biggest defense budget, although analysts say it will be many decades before it can match U.S. military capabilities.
Achieving parallel adjustments in both economies could be the key to rebalancing the global economy, many officials and analysts in Davos are likely to argue.
China will have to take more responsibility for the global order before long, Mr. Bergsten argues. 'When you become an economic superpower, your actions have such an impact on the global system that it feeds back into your own interests, so you have to take that into account,' he says.
For example, China's insistence on keeping its currency pegged to the dollar at a rate lower than market forces would dictate risks sparking a protectionist backlash in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere, which would harm China's export-dependent economy. China's interests should make it a guardian of an open world trade regime, Mr. Bergsten says.
Marcus Walker / Andrew Batson
The global financial crisis and the stumbling efforts to tackle climate change have highlighted the mounting evidence that China is becoming the world's second-most influential country after the U.S.
A growing number of policy makers, economists and political analysts argue that the U.S.-China bilateral relationship is now the most important of all -- and that the chances of managing the globalized world successfully will be slim unless these two powers, as different as yin and yang, can cooperate.
But although the U.S. and China may be the two most powerful countries for years to come, many analysts and officials doubt they can, or should, form a de facto Group of Two to set the global agenda. Differences of interest, affluence, political ideology, and diplomatic approach are among the obstacles.
History suggests a partnership between an established power and a rising one is a stretch. From ancient Sparta and Athens to Britain and Germany a century ago, hegemons and upstarts have tended to collide, rather than cooperate.
Despite the challenges, Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, argues that a G-2 partnership should manage the global economy, acting as an informal 'steering committee' to facilitate broader deals within multilateral institutions, including the Group of 20 and the World Trade Organization.
'Unless the G-2 agrees, it's very hard to achieve progress within these global institutions,' Mr. Bergsten says. The U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen bore that out: Achieving a deal required a last-minute summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
Mr. Wen rejected the idea of a G-2 partnership during Mr. Obama's visit to Beijing in November. 'Global issues should be decided by all nations in the world, rather than one or two countries,' Mr. Wen said. China has a long way to go before it is modernized and 'we must always keep sober-minded over it,' he said, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua.
The idea of a G-2 partnership is controversial, because it suggests a two-nation hegemony over a world that is more politically fragmented than during the bipolar Cold War era.
'All the major Asian and European powers would not wish to cede management of world affairs to Washington and Beijing, and developing countries would oppose it too,' says David Shambaugh, a China specialist at George Washington University who is currently a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Despite its growing heft, China still prefers to act as part of a group of other developing countries, to avoid standing in the limelight and attracting pressure and criticism. Characteristically, Mr. Wen invited the leaders of India, Brazil and South Africa to the crucial meeting with Mr. Obama in Copenhagen.
Beijing fears a global leadership role would force it to take on responsibilities that it isn't ready for, such as doing more to cut carbon emissions, say analysts.
China prefers to style itself as a poor country largely focused on its own affairs -- a low-key approach in keeping with late leader Deng Xiaoping's instruction to 'hide one's capacities and bide one's time.' The Chinese leadership even disputes the idea that China is a global economic power.
It is a losing argument. Beijing's economic might has become far too great to hide.
China is widely tipped to overtake Japan as the world's second biggest economy this year. The country's gross domestic product is set to overtake the U.S.'s in 17 years, according to Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jim O'Neill.
The U.S. and China are already the world's biggest trading nations. China has the world's second-biggest defense budget, although analysts say it will be many decades before it can match U.S. military capabilities.
Achieving parallel adjustments in both economies could be the key to rebalancing the global economy, many officials and analysts in Davos are likely to argue.
China will have to take more responsibility for the global order before long, Mr. Bergsten argues. 'When you become an economic superpower, your actions have such an impact on the global system that it feeds back into your own interests, so you have to take that into account,' he says.
For example, China's insistence on keeping its currency pegged to the dollar at a rate lower than market forces would dictate risks sparking a protectionist backlash in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere, which would harm China's export-dependent economy. China's interests should make it a guardian of an open world trade regime, Mr. Bergsten says.
Marcus Walker / Andrew Batson
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