货币政策制定者们梦想能像电影《森林王子》(Jungle Book)中的蟒蛇Kaa一样收紧政策。他们表面承诺维护增长，麻痹着普通老百姓，暗地里却开始撤出各种扶持措施。这样，在没人意识到银根真的已经开始收紧时，政策当局就已经牢牢控制了通胀。
当然，在现实世界中，情况从来不是如此。以中国为例。中国的政策制定者仍然宣称，经济复苏"基础不稳固"，各银行目前仍未恢复实施自2008年11月解除的放贷额度。新年伊始，中国央行(People's Bank of China)已采取了两项重要举措――提高3月期和1年期央票利率――以吸收过多的流动性。接着，央行宣布上调存款准备金率，这是自2008年12月以来央行首次动用三大关键政策工具之一（其它两项是贷款利率和存款利率）。从今日起，将要求大型商业银行把存在央行的准备金率从14.5%上调至15%。这些举措都没有让本土投资者感到吃惊。衡量投资者担忧情绪的风向标――上证综指――今年以来的跌幅不到1%。
更严厉的举措无疑箭在弦上。正如高盛(Goldman Sachs)所指出的，中国的商业银行会主动将存款准备金保持在超过规定至少3%的水平。2006年和2007年，中国央行多次上调存款准备金率，但通胀率一直到2008年2月之前都在攀升。如今，过度繁荣的迹象随处可见。去年12月，住宅和商用房地产价格增幅创下了18个月之最，而外国直接投资也较1年前水平翻了一番以上。此外，银行仍在不断放贷。新年第一周新增贷款6000亿元人民币，较去年8000亿元人民币的月平均水平相去不远。将于周四发布的第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)数据，可能会预示更令人痛苦的紧缩。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/陈云飞
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001030862
In their dreams monetary authorities tighten like Kaa, the Jungle Book python. Hypnotise the rank and file with assurances of a commitment to growth, while stealthily withdrawing various measures of support. Then, without anyone realising that the squeeze is actually on, the policy coils keep a firm grip on inflation.
In the real world, of course, it never works like that. Take China, where policymakers still claim that the recovery "is not firmly established", and where banks are still operating without the lending quotas removed in November 2008. Since the beginning of the year, the People's Bank of China has taken two significant steps to mop up excess liquidity, raising rates on three-month and one-year sterilisation bills. Then, in the first use of one of the three key instruments since December 2008 (the others are the lending rate and the deposit rate), it raised the reserve requirement ratio. From today, big commercial banks are required to keep 15 per cent of deposits at the central bank, up from 14.5. None of this has startled local investors. The Shanghai Composite Index � one barometer of fear � is off less than 1 per cent for the year.
Sterner measures are surely in the offing. As Goldman Sachs notes, commercial banks voluntarily keep excess reserves at least 3 per cent above the RRR. In 2006 and 2007, the PBoC increased reserve requirements repeatedly, but inflation kept climbing until February 2008. Now signs of exuberance are everywhere. Residential and commercial real estate prices rose at the fastest rate in 18 months in December, while foreign direct investment more than doubled from a year earlier. And still the banks are lending. The Rmb600bn of new loans in the first week of January was not far off the monthly average of Rmb800bn last year. Fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, due on Thursday, could provide a cue for more painful constriction.
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